Central Florida: From the TiVo film room

by Barking Carnival Staff on Sep 19, 2007 3:52 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

Henry James like the Colt’s hands under his rear

In case you haven’t noticed, we like the shotgun formation. Suzanne Halliburton reported in the off-season that last year’s team lined up in the shotgun 80% of the time IIRC. I’d love to find a link to the article but I can’t find it without diving through the 46 arrest reports. Where have all the "good kids who graduate" gone? We miss you, Trey Bates.

ChrisApplewhite made me do it

In Orlando, we lined up in the shotgun on 69 of our 90 offensive plays (77%) and gained 333 yards (220 passing and 113 rushing) for about 4.8 yards per play.

We actually ran the ball from under center on 19 of the 21 plays (tendencies, anyone?). That’s why the double move Shipley made after we ran play action from under center was so wide open in the fourth quarter.

In those 21 snaps where we lined up with Colt under Center, we managed 155 yards (39 passing and 116 rushing) or 7.4 yards per play. Amazingly, ten of those 21 plays lost a yard, gained a yard, or were stopped for no gain. Folks, that is not getting a push from your front unit including both tight ends.

86% of our yards from under center came from five plays:

9 yard end around (it is not a reverse) to Shipley in Q1
28 yard run on second and two from Jamaal Charles in Q3
38 yard play action pass to Shipley mentioned above in Q4
46 yard run on first and ten from Jamaal Charles in Q4
12 yard run on second and seven from Jamaal Charles in Q4 where he fumbled while running out the clock

That is known as a recipe for disaster.

Plus/Minus

Everyone seemed to enjoy last week’s Plus/Minus on the linebackers so I decided to resurrect it.

This week, I decided to do it a little differently as I am going to attribute series to linebacker groupings as opposed to individual players. Generally speaking, we plug our LB groups in for a possession and they play out the possession come hell or high water, so I broke the groups by possessions this week. The only possession I noticed the LBs rotate out was where they went for it on fourth down and didn’t convert in the third quarter. Muck was replaced by Derry at some point in that possession. He could have been dinged up and I missed him leave the game.

UCF ran 67 offensive plays for 326 total yards for an average of 4.9 yards per play in 16 possessions. They went "three and out" on 7 of the twelve possessions (58.3%). That is outstanding. In addition, there were two other possessions were UCF’s offense went "three and fumble" and the Pick 6 possession.

It was those pesky other 6 possessions where the defense really got hurt (4 TDs, FG, and turnover on downs after driving for 8 plays and 37 yards).

This week Muck and Norton did not play together on the field (save special teams). If one was in, the other was watching. That is a departure from the TCU game.

The starting backers (Bobino, Derry, and Killebrew) got 8 of the 16 possessions as a group. Bobino and Derry got a 9^th possession as the lone backers in the fourth quarter when we started and stayed in a nickel package.

Those 9 starter possessions break down as follows:
Pick 6 - well done
4 "three and outs - outstanding"
1 forced fumble; no recovery
4 TDs
40 plays for 244 yards (6.1 ypp)
Net -22 points

The Norton, Killebrew, and Derry group had four possessions and all were three plays long. Two "three and out" and two "three and fumble". Twelve plays for 43 yards (3.6 ypp), and two turnovers. Net 0 points.

The Muck, Bobino, and Killebrew group had two possessions (one of which where Muck was pulled at some point) which resulted in a FG and a turnover on downs. Thirteen plays for 68 yards (5.2 ypp). Net 3 points.

The Muck, Bobino, and Derry group had one possession which was a "three and out". 3 plays for 1 yard. Net 0 points.

Maybe that is why Mack Brown is having a hard time getting Muckelroy and Norton snaps…they just keep coming off the field in 3-play increments.

"We would still like to play Jared [Norton] and Roddrick [Muckelroy] more. We are hoping that we will get to start rotating like we wanted to and that is every other series with the guys."

I realize the plays are off by one and the total yards are off by 30, but someone needs to tell the official score keeper that one. The numbers do not lie.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

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Comments

So it is as we suspected. If the backups played worse they would see more pt.

by DrkBgrk on Sep 19, 2007 4:08 PM CDT reply actions

Surely the defensive coaches notice these tendencies right? Right?

by Misterserious7 on Sep 19, 2007 4:20 PM CDT reply actions

God we suck when Bobino and Killebrew are both in the game.

Starters: 6.1 ypp

Starters – Bobino: 2.5 ypp improvement

Starters – Kill: 5.1 ypp improvement (only 1 series though so more data is required)

Starters – Derry: .9 ypp improvement

I would like to see this “grouping” analysis for TCU as well

by Bench the Starting LBs on Sep 19, 2007 4:30 PM CDT reply actions

Since you’ve done most of the ground work, I’ll ask you to go a step beyond UC VS. ’Gun.

Break down:
Run vs. Pass in I
Run vs. Pass in Gun
Run Vs. Pass in ACE (any 1 back UC set)

Run from:
I vs. ACE vs. ’Gun

Pass from:
I vs. ACE vs. ’Gun

I’m extremely interested in the results.

by Superfan on Sep 19, 2007 4:33 PM CDT reply actions

You guys seem to think I get paid to do this.

by BRAGGonUT on Sep 19, 2007 4:54 PM CDT reply actions

Superfan, against UCF, all of the UC sets included only 1 back with the exception of a GL formation (FB and Lokey)from about the 10 on third and 1.

BtSL, you can draw plenty of the same conclusions about the LBs from the TCU that I broke down in TiVo Film Room: TCU

by BRAGGonUT on Sep 19, 2007 4:59 PM CDT reply actions

“Surely the defensive coaches notice these tendencies right? Right?”

Misterserious7, I’ll paraphrase Peter Gibbons: “It’s not that they don’t notice, it’s that they just don’t care.”

by CrazyJoeDavola on Sep 19, 2007 6:23 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks Braggon… I got my DVR in the middle of that game, so I could only watch the replay which is horribly edited.

I was hoping you’d go into YPC for UC and ’Gun rushes, hell, maybe even failure rate in rushes from the same set. I believe a failure on a rush is considered 2 yds or less.

I know you don’t get paid to do it, but it’s clear you enjoy it.

by Superfan on Sep 19, 2007 6:38 PM CDT reply actions

bragg, could you please compute every single combination of personnel both offensively and defensively for this year so we can see what combinations work the best? also, please do this for say the last 2 or 3 years and see how they compare to this year so far. i would like to be able to read this before dinner tonight, thanks in advance…

by mileslong on Sep 19, 2007 6:40 PM CDT reply actions

As a team, we rushed 43 times for 229 yards. Back out 2 sacks for -3 for an actual run game performance of 41 attempts for 232 yards or 5.7 ypp.

Under center, we rushed 19 times for 116 yards or 6.1 ypp.

Therefore, out of the gun, we rushed 22 times for 116 times or 5.5 ypp.

by BRAGGonUT on Sep 19, 2007 7:37 PM CDT reply actions

Miles, I thought that Braggon probably already had the info handy due to his previous work breaking down the offense and just hadn’t put it down on paper (well, into the ether). It’s not like it’s a real burden, if it was, he would’ve just said fuck you superfan. Kinda like you just did.

Braggon, thanks. I’d thought we were significantly better out of the ACE, but those numbers (especially when you account for the fact that there were 3 huge runs from the ACE) show we’re more consistent from the ’Gun. However, more big plays came from ACE….

by Superfan on Sep 19, 2007 11:52 PM CDT reply actions

Our run game is very Oprah-like…we are feast or famine. I’d say we are damn lucky we have a back who can crack 25 yarders at a time. That said, I’d like him to put a higher premium on ball security.

Give me some groupings you’d like broken down and I’ll do it in future weeks. I have no real plans to keep measuring the LB corps every week. That horse is already bled out.

by BRAGGonUT on Sep 20, 2007 6:50 AM CDT reply actions

Here’s another thought on UCF.

Link

by JackieMartling on Sep 20, 2007 8:52 AM CDT reply actions

Braggon, I enjoy the I vs. Gun vs. ACE running debate as some people think that putting a FB in the backfield is the magic potion to a decent run game. Being at the TCU game, I vehemently disagree.

Here’s one you could go +/- on in the future… OL groupings. Just like you did LB.

by Superfan on Sep 20, 2007 10:39 AM CDT reply actions

It’s not a +/- but if I had Tivo I would consider breaking down our conversion % when we run on first down as opposed to when we throw on first down. It would also be interesting to see our variance on yards/carry in the different formations. I’ll hang up and listen.

by LonghornScott on Sep 20, 2007 10:50 AM CDT reply actions

Yo, B. Anyone gonna throw together a preview for Rice? Fun opportunity here – and, perhaps last chance to unpucker our sphincters for the rest of the season

by Squirrel on Sep 20, 2007 11:45 AM CDT reply actions

Scott,

“Under center, we rushed 19 times for 116 yards or 6.1 ypp.

Therefore, out of the gun, we rushed 22 times for 116 times or 5.5 ypp."

I am assuming that the GL formations were not included in the UC stats. Could be wrong though.

by Superfan on Sep 20, 2007 12:57 PM CDT reply actions

σ… as in statistical variation of data.

by LonghornScott on Sep 20, 2007 1:14 PM CDT reply actions

SF, we put a FB in the game once from UC in the UCF game…like I said yesterday at 1:59. So that one play from GL formations was included in my UC stats. I didn’t breakdown offensive formations for TCU.

Squirrel, not sure on a Rice preview…ask HJ or Scip…maybe they are done with their media tour.

by BRAGGonUT on Sep 20, 2007 2:45 PM CDT reply actions

We had ten “First and 10 or Goal” situations that we lined up with Colt under center. We rushed 8 times for 64 yards (includes the 46 yard TD). Four of those would be considered failures at less than two yards.

We were 2 for 2 on passes (1 yard to shipley on the don’t move route, and the 38 yard double move to Shipley).

We had 25 FDs and 16 offensive possessions so we had 31 “other” First and 10s where we lined up in shotgun. I don’t have the data to break down each of those 31 formations and results.

by BRAGGonUT on Sep 20, 2007 2:56 PM CDT reply actions