College Bets Week 7

Had to change the title yet again as my local won't take my action after last week's domination. 4-1-1 in posted plays, with the only blemish being the Texas/OU loss which was a reverse psychology ploy to try to get the boys fired up. Unfortunately, Jamal Charles thought I was serious and did his level best to line my pockets. Thanks, pods, for helping me lose the battle and the war. Still a stellar weekend making my overall record 21-14-3, up 8 units for the year. A decent first half of the season fo' sho'.

Big ups to JC for giving this asshat a voice at the Texas State Fair.

It's on to week 7 with a card choc full of Big 12 conference games. And why not with spectacular record of 5-1 in Big 12 games of the week. The picks...

**Baylor +27 @Kansas. Big 12 Game of the Week. 2 units** So, the Fighting Manginos are 5-0 and coming off a huge win vs. in-state rival KSU. They have destroyed every opponent prior to last weeks rivalry win in the Little Apple, and the Jayhawks look to start the year in spectacular 6-0 fashion. They will. They're playing Baylor. But are we to believe that the Kansas Jayhawks are 4 touchdowns better all of a sudden? Are we to believe that Mark Mangino will eat a dry dinner salad for his pre-game meal because he's lost 5 pounds in a week.? I don't.

Baylor put up 450 yards of total offense on a good Colorado defense last week in a similar spot. No reason to believe they can't have similar success against KU. Baylor keeps it within the number against a flat KU squad. 35 to 21 KU.

Kansas is a borderline Top 10 team due for a let down.

Arkansas -2.5 vs. Auburn
This Saturday night SEC tilt will pit a battle tested Auburn club vs. an Arkansas team looking for a signature win. Matchup wise, this will be a game of strength on strength and weakness on weakness. Auburn's defense has held opponents to a paltry 293 total yards per game while Arkansas has racked up 340 rushing yards per contest. On defense, the Razorbacks are having a tough time stopping legit and not so legit offenses. Troy, Kentucky, and Alabama all have had success moving the ball with UK and 'Bama putting up over 400 yards a piece. Auburn's offense struggles to move the ball averaging 340 yards per game in 6 contests. Matchup-wise, this game is pretty close to even.

A car that Razorback alums can get behind.

Here's the rub, and the reason I like the Razorbacks. Arkansas has played two weeks worth of yawners leading up to this game vs. the likes of North Texas and Chattanooga. They've essentially had 3 weeks to prepare and the results of the 35 to 14 win against Chattanooga last week indicate they've been looking a head. Auburn has played well in its last two weeks at Florida and at home against Vandy. Two good clubs to be sure. Oh, and this will be just Auburn's 2nd road game of the year. They won't be sneaking up on Arkansas. Arkie wins comfortably 28 to 17.

South Carolina 6.5 @ North Carolina. I can't figure this line out and nor can alot of people I trust on these matters. Based on these teams' performances this year this line should be double digits. The only reason I can fathom for the one TD line is the spot considering SC is coming off an emotional win vs. UK, and UNC just had a nice statement win vs. Miami. Otherwise, I don't get it. To the numbers:

This South Carolina team is the real deal averaging good numbers defensively with impressive wins at Georgia, vs. Miss State, and Kentucky. Their only loss on the year is at LSU where they played hard and played within the number. The Cocks give up a paltry 126 pass yards per game, while UNC manages just over 106 yards on the ground. Clearly, USC's defensive unit will present some serious problems for a Tarheel offensive attack that relies on passing the football.

On offense, the Gamecocks have played some pretty good defenses and managed to average 360+ yards of offense. The UNC defense has given up 360 yards per game vs. putrid offenses like East Carolina, Virginia Tech, South Florida, and Miami. The Gamecocks will be the best offense North Carolina has faced all year and certainly the best coached offense.

I like Spurrier to be able to get his kids to play, as it shouldn't be hard for a team that just broke into the top 10 after a long while. I expect them to show up like a top 10 team Saturday. They'll rout UNC 37 to 14.

Missouri +13 @ Oklahoma. This line has been driven up by tout named Dr. Bob who uses a mathematical formula driven by detailed statistics like yards per attempt, yards per play, yards given up per play,per pass, per rush, etc. It identifies mismatches based on these numbers. Well Dr. Bob likes the Sooners this week, and the line has gone from 9 to 13. Hell, it may be 14 by kickoff. Dr. Bob's formula fails him in this case based on the numbers OU has accumulated against lesser-lights thus skewing his output. Defensively, the okies have shut down pedestrian offenses like Miami, North Texas, and Utah State. Versus competent offenses the Sooners have given up 400, 380, and 385 to Tulsa, Colorado, and Texas respectively. Well, Missouri is more than just a competent offense. They may well be the most productive offense in the nation. Scheme wise, they throw the ball to set up the run which will be key vs. the Sooners. Mizzu will look to exploit the middle of the field with their two talented TE's much like Texas did. The Tigers have talented TE's and they should have similar success. I see this offensive unit scoring a bunch.

Dr. Bob has been moving lines for years. But this year he's good fading material.

On defense, the Sooners will pose a big mismatch to the outmanned Tiger defense. But Pinkel should have a pretty good blue-print on how to slow down the Sooner attack based on what Colorado did and to a lesser extent what Texas did. The Sooners are a different team offensively when Bradford is forced to make post snap reads and throws. When he's able to hit go routes to Kelly and quick slants and hitches to Iglesias, he's accurate. Look for Mizzu to disguise coverages right before the snap in an effort to confuse the young QB. If they can avoid the big play and force the Sooners to drive the field, Mizzu can keep its offense in the game and play within the number.

A week after Texas, it'll be tough for OU to get back up for this game. I think they'll win outright, but I think the Tigers are a really live dog in this spot. OU 35 Mizzu 31.

Even with running back Tony Temple being out with an ankle injury, the Tigers should move the ball vs. the Sooners.

Nebraska -4 vs. Okie State. It's time for Nebraska to put up or shut up. They've crapped the bed against USC, played too close for comfort games vs. Ball State and Wake, and were annihilated at Mizzu. But don't look now, Vegas is telling us that OSU would be a slight favorite on a neutral field vs. the Huskers. Nope. Have you seen how Okie State plays on the road? Blown out by Georgia, blown out by Troy, and lost at TAMU.

On the road, OSU is giving up about 100 yards per game more than their opponent. If they do that in Lincoln I'm confident NU covers this tiny number. If OSU turns it over at all, you might see a feeding freenzy leading to a blowout. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses, but this is Nebraska's season. I like the Corn. 38-28.

Good luck everyone.