Fantasy Football RBs: The Final Big Board

I should also add, these points are not a fantasy point per game projection, but more of a power rating.

Westbrook’s injury reputation is deserved, but he plays anyway and it still a badass. After the first few weeks of the season, he’ll be on the injury report for the rest of the year. It’s annoying to put up with, but worth it because of his production.

At pick number 3, if I cant get Westbrook Im going Brady. Is this a good idea, the trade off seems to be if I cant go elite RB then I have to go elite QB?

True, especially early in his career. However, he’s only missed 3 games in the last 2 years, which kept him from getting a health issue deduction. Even with a maximum 4 point injury deduction (see McGahee), he’s still the clear #2 back.

The guys at Gump4Heisman said it best…

If you’re a true college football fan, you don’t give a proper fuck about the NFL. You watch it, you like it, you follow it. But you don’t really give a fuck about it. To true college fans, the NFL is like the show that came on HBO after a really good episode of The Sopranos. Just because it’s on your TV screen, doesn’t mean you care what happens.

I want to be the VP of your Earnest Graham fan club. I think he’s going to have a huge year. Even if Dunn/Bennett become TB’s 3rd Down Back, Graham will still be the goal line guy and the workhorse. Not many 3rd round picks give you the potential for a 200 point season.

Mysterious,

I would still go with a RB in the first no matter what. Brady went in the 2nd round with the 17th pick in my draft last night. I would jump all over Addai at #3 and be tickled to death with it.

Bragg,

I’m not sharing my Tech receiver Big Board with you next year, after that.

DeAngelo has always been a preseason badass, and has produced when given the chance. I’m betting he’ll shine now that “Austrailian for Fumble” is gone.

(standing ovation for BraggonUT’s post)

For once, Nate And I are in agreement.

Great analysis and much appreciated.

The guys in my league went "gay’ this year and added points per catch and points for first down catches/runs. F**K!

Now I have a whole ’nother level of research to do.

Any advice on that? I’m guessing that my WR research and picks become a bunch more important and I need to figure out which backs can catch.

And to Bragg’s comment: I guess I have always agreed. Fantasy football has made the NFL at least interesting to me, though. So, it makes Sundays better. That’s the point.

Yeah, if not for fantasy football, I would probably follow the NFL about like I do the MLB. Except the Cowboys.

Cimarrones,

I’ll have the WRs up soon. When is your draft? If the homosexual points per catch is in play, it would definitely bump up TJ Houshmanzadeh and Wes Welker. How many points per catch? 1?

I think the word is out on Grant a little bit and with his injury, he’s going about where he should. On the other hand, Graham is a steal as a #2 back. If he stays healty, he’ll put up Top 10 numbers as a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

Bold face, column headings, bullet points, and numbering are your friends.
 
I like Steven Jackson and Marshawn Lynch more than you. I don’t want Willis McGahee on my team.
 
I also think it’s likely that Ricky is a top 10 back by season’s end. He just looks like Ricky again. Agreed that he’s a risk.

I like Jackson and Lynch as my #2 backs, but I don’t think either one of them will be able to carry my team as a #1 stud.

McGahee screwed me in Buffalo and is on my blacklist of guys I’ve put money on and they epicly failed along with Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew.

Ricky is very intriguing. Say what you want about Parcells as a coach and admittedly the game may have passed him by, but he’s still an outstanding personnel guy. He’s made some minor, but helpful moves on the OL and I didn’t dock Ricky for being over 30 since he doesn’t have many miles on him. He’s slowly creeping up, but I’m not touching him over say a White, Gore, or D. Williams. However, I might take him over anyone in the “Everbody Else” group including Larry Johnson and possibly McGahee.

Better?

Our “gay league” draft is tomorrow night. It’s one point per reception.

We do have a flex position – WR-RB-TE which is going to make those lineup calls a bit more agonizing decision with this scoring category.

I could handle Wes Welker as one of my WR’s. But, I’m wondering if I need to emphasize WR’s ahead of that third or fourth RB in the draft now.

One thing not helping me is that I sat last year out and feel like a rookie “picker” again.

I’m not sure, maybe. I’ve never played in a points per reception league.

Also Scipio, I chickened out on my best player available strategy. I drafted like this:

1. LT
2. Graham
3. Fitzgerald
4. White
5. Brandon Marshall
6. McNabb
7. Todd Fucking Heap on autodraft
8. Matt Hasselback
9. Nate Burleson
10. Kevin Curtis
11. Chris Johnson
12. Sproles
13. Robert Meachem
14. Kaeding
15. Jets Defense

I’m bad at defense, but I never end up with the same one at the end of the season anyway. I was obviously tickled to death with my decision to go the platoon route at QB and then ending up with McNabb and Hasselback. I took Burleson and Curtis in hopes that I can platoon them against the matchups until the underrated Marshall serves his suspension. He and Cutler are going to really blowup this year.

I think your Brandon Marshall pick was inspired and will pay huge dividends in the playoffs.
 
I was not true to my RB first two rounds strategem either. My draft went thusly:
 
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Reggie Wayne
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Michael Turner
5. Jason Witten
6. Selvin Young
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Dwayne Bowe
9. Ricky Williams
10. Marc Bulger
11. Cowboys
12. Chester Taylor
13. Anthony Gonzalez
14. Deuce McCallister
15. Rob Bironas
 
I like my depth overall. Lots of solid RB and WR options to play with.
 
Now, my question is: do I drop Deuce and pick up Chris Perry via waiver? I’ll shoot myself if Deuce proves healthy, Bush fizzles, and he gets all of the goalline carries for a productive Saints offense. Still, looks like Rudi is out.

oh, yeah….way better! The reader thanks you.

I hope you’re right about Graham, which I think you are. Like you, I was all over Bobby Engram before the injury, and went with Burleson also. I had the 11th pick out of 12:
1. Clinton Portis RB
2. Andre Johnson WR
3. Marcus Colston WR
4. Ernest Graham RB
5. Jay Cutler QB
6. Brandon Marshall WR(a steal in the 6th)
7. Ricky Williams RB
8. Nate Burleson WR
9. Rashard Mendenhall WR
10. Owen Daniels TE
11. Jason Campbell QB
12. Vincent Jackson WR
13. Steve Slaton RB
14. Bucs D
15. Zach Miller TE
16. Josh Scobee K

Whoops Mendenhall is a RB and not a WR

That McCallister pick was massive Scipio. I can’t understand why he was available so late.

The NFL blows. The only thing betting on it or playing fantasy football with it does is force you to have to pay attention the misery that is NFL football games.

-1 for this post. I was expecting a ranking of CFB RBs by fantasy league production.

Boooooo…

Mack,

I love that draft top to bottom, especially from where you were picking. Might want to pick up another available D off waivers (Eagles and Titans fell prety far in our draft) for situational matchups.

Scipio,

Also a solid draft. Top 3 is manly, Turner is an unknown but he’s always delivered when given the chance. I dropped him a few slots for simply being a Falcon.

I too subscribe to the ‘Take a starting QB late and back-up early theory’. Lets you stock up on top tier RBs and WRs in the early rounds when it counts.

I would keep Deuce for now. We all know Bush isn’t a goal line back … or a 1st or 2nd down back. He’s a fucking pussy is what he is. Yeah.

Oh well, guess I’m fucked. And I’m in a “gay” league too (1 point/reception and taint licking for each ST TD)

RB Gore
WR Moss R.
RB McGahee
WR Boldin
TE Gates
WR Holmes S.
RB Jones T.
WR Driver
QB Rivers
QB Hasselbeck
RB Mendenhall
D/ST Steelers
K Folk
RB Jones F.
D/ST Bucs
WR Meachem

They just call it an STD in that kind of league.

Sizzle that’s actually a solid draft. Meachem could be a steal … who knows what Jones and Mendenhall will do as rookie backups but you got good value on them.

Santonio should have a big year. I think this is the year Fitz separates from Boldin as the man in AZ.

dedfischer: Are you hearing this crap about Crabtree possibly being suspended for the year due to improper benefits?
I have my doubts as to the veracity of the rumor, having come from a gambler’s message board, but TexAgs broke the Bomar/Big Red story long before anyone else.
I’m just wanting to know if you’d heard anything about it.

It’s horseshit. He’s playing Saturday.

I figured as much, just thought I’d run it by someone closer to Tech. Major media would be all over it, and Lubbock isn’t the kind of place where you could hide something like that.

14 team league with the faggot WR rules

I picked 4th

RB Westbrook
RB Graham
WR Welker ( he led the league in receptions )
WR Boldin
RB Ricky
QB Garrard
QB Hassel
WR Stallworth
RB J Norwood
TE LJ Smith (they get pts per first down catch, also)
K My homey Phil Dawson
WR M Clayton
DST Seahawks (just to piss all of these Wash St guys off ) All starters back, tho
WR Amani Toomer

Critique

honestly . . . .

LJ Smith and Amani Toomer will be on your waiver wire by week 3. Need a better third WR. Trying to time the three weeks a year Stallworth goes off is impossible. Love the Seahawks D.

You don’t see back to back QB very often but it worked out okay. Hasselbeck needs better receivers and not totally sold on Garrard yet.

Thanks.

It was a 14 team league/draft. There was a run on QB’s in the 5th and those two guys were all that was left (halfway decent). Stallworth was also the highest rated WR left when I picked.

I felt pretty good about the Seahawks D – especially with the next to last pick there. Also happy to get Dawson at K.

Some of you guys needing another WR may want to pick up Courtney Taylor of Seattle. He’s starting at flanker and went undrafted in my league.

I’ll have an update on some more tweaking I did and my money draft results on Sunday.

Should I start Burleson or Vincent Jackson of San Diego in place of Marshall?

Burleson all the way. Jackson may have some big weeks, but good luck guessing. Burleson will be much more consistent.

I don’t really like any of the matchups and the rest of my lineup is solid, but I need to start one of these guys at Flex:

Sidney Rice vs GB
Lendale White vs Jax
Dwayne Bowe vs NE

Thoughts?

Lendale White. I think Bowe will be good, but new QB against NE defense? I’ll pass this week. Rice has a guy named Tavaris Jackson throwing to him will lining up across from Al Harris and Charles Woodson. At a minimum, White will get some goalline touches.

In one league, I’m rolling with Derrick Mason vs. Cincy this week over Bowe and L. Coles vs. Miami as my #2 WR (Andre Johnson is my #1). At RB & Flex, I’m currently starting Addai/Jacobs at RB with R. Williams at Flex over Jamal Lewis, his hamstring, and facing the Cowboys defense.

League 2, I’m going with LT/E. Graham/L. White with #1 WR Fitzgerald and #2 WR Burleson (while B. Marshall is serving suspension).

I came to the same conclusion despite White’s poor history against Jax. I probably won’t need many points out of the flex position because I’m also starting Westbrook, Fitzgerald, Edge, Calvin Johnson … all good matchups.

Mason gets a lot of looks and Cincy has an average secondary, easy call there. When Marshall gets back that lineup in league 2 will be pretty salty.

Oh yeah, my draft on Sunday in my big money league went like this (I picked 6 out of 12):
1. Addai, RB
2. A. Johnson, WR
3. J. Lewis, RB
4. B. Jacobs, RB
5. K. Warner, QB (don’t laugh, he’s just behind Tony Romo in 3rd as the starter last year)
6. L. Coles, WR
7. T. Gonzalez, TE
8. D. Garrard, QB
9. D. Bowe, WR
10. D. Mason, WR
11. R. Williams, RB
12. T. Scheffler, TE
13. Bucs Defense
14. Packers Defense
15. Mason Crosby, K

Regarding my last ranking system, I wanted a way to compare apples to apples when trying to decide the positional value of say a RB vs. WR at the flex. In an attempt to capture this, I took the FPS total for each player in 2007 (regardless of position, defense too) and divided that by the number of games played. I then multiplied this number by the consistency percentage from above and added the two together to get a power rating. I then used .25 point deductions/additions to this total based on the criteria above. Something just didn’t look right with Steven Jackson being ranked behind of Willie Parker. This system fixed that. It also dictated what position I picked in each round. My method was to simply fill out my starting lineup (excluding Def/K) in the first 7 rounds with the player who had the highest rating left on the board. Of course, I tried not to take a player who I thought might be available later. The top 10 players overall looked like this:
1. Tom Brady – 30.0 FPS/Game, 58.1 Power Rating
2. Tony Romo – 21.6, 37.8
3. LT – 18.1, 36.3
4. Westbrook – 17.5, 34.9
5. R. Moss – 17.6, 31.9
6. P. Manning – 21.0, 31.5
7. K. Warner – 19.2, 30.1
8. D. Brees – 19.1, 29.9
9. Roethlisberger – 19.1, 28.7
10. Favre – 19.3, 28.5
Now, obviously the only two QBs worth a first rounder were Brady and Romo, which they did. Manning went in the 2nd, and the other 3 QBs were gone by round 4 along with Palmer, D. Anderson, and someone else. Warner might have been available later, but I didn’t want to risk it and Garrard was actually ranked 8th in QBs ahead of D. Anderson and Hasselbeck.
The final top 15 of RBs looked like this:
1. LT – 18.1, 36.3
2. Westbrook – 17.5, 34.9
3. Peterson – 15.4, 25.1
4. Addai – 14.7, 24.4
5. J. Lewis – 13.7, 22.6
6. E. Graham – 13.1, 22.1
7. R. Grant – 12.6, 21.9
8. B. Jacobs – 12.7, 21.0
9. Portis – 12.9, 20.9
10. S. Jackson – 12.5, 20.9
11. M. Lynch – 12.3, 20.3
12. W. McGahee – 11.3, 19.7
13. M. Barber – 11.5, 17.3
14. W. Parker – 10.7, 16.6
15. F. Gore – 10.5, 15.7
Obviously, I hope these are accurate because I was pretty pleased coming out with 3 backs in the top 8. I doubt it plays out that way, but I might get 3 in the top 15, which I’ve won leagues before by doing.

Warner isn’t a bad play now that he’s starting (particularly this week’s matchup) but you could have gotten him much later than the 5th round. He didn’t even get drafted in our league.

Curious to see how your formula ranks these backs at the end of the season. Barber will certainly finish a lot higher than he started with more carries this year. Even behind a solid OL, Ryan Grant comes back to earth this year without Favre IMO.

It was a live draft for a league I’ve been playing in for 10 years. All the players are pretty savvy drafters and I talked to another guy about his system that always heavy on RBs like me. He uses an good method that I plan on adding to this system next year, if he has a good season. It’s based on drafting RBs according to the OC. He’s big on Cam Cameron, who’s now at Baltimore, so McGahee was his big pick in Round 2. He took Romo in 1. The guy also picked Ronnie Brown last year (under Cameron) and that worked out well until injury. I’m going to look at this a little harder next year. I’ve used it for drafting WRs and TEs in the past with marginal success.

I am too. Since I took to effort to save it in an excel spreadsheet, it will be very easy to update and tweak. At a minimum, it kept from flipping through magazines and sportsline rankings trying to remember who did what and helped in my decisiveness. It actually took me less time to do this than in past seasons.

Jacobs pick not looking too bad right now.

dedfischer, I’ve got a fantasy question. My league has a QB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR, TE, D, K set-up. I’m not sure who to start at my flex RB/WR position. I am for sure starting Brees, AD, Ocho, and Andre Johnson. I’m trying to decide between Earnest Graham (who i’m leaning towards) or Pat Crayton, DeSean Jackson, Teddy Ginn, Jabar Gafney or LaMont Jordan (only b/c ESPN thinks he’s gonna have a huge week). I really appreciate any help.

I obviously didn’t read enough of this post and comments. I get it, its Graham.

Burleson had a good game, but sucks that he got hurt. I may pick up Courtney Taylor again. I dropped him right after picking him up a few days ago after someone in my league waived Jonathan Stewart. I’m also thinking about dropping Jason Campbell to pick up Cassel.

Gotta love yahoo, fine stuff.

Will browse around and hopefully have something I can add.

Have a good day.

Lynnette