Texas/Colorado Football Analysis

“they’ll start playing hackeysack and listen to Phish on their Ipods”

I just woke up my roommate with my laughter.

The equalizer for the Buffs has to be the psychedelic properties of their stadium.

Imagine Johnny Cash’s ‘68 prison concert as performed by Duran Duran to a crowd really twisted about the fascist return policy at William Sonoma, and you’ve got some idea of the disorienting atmosphere that challenges visiting teams.

You are the only person living or dead who could work Cytherea into a post about football. I stand in awe.

Excellent analysis, you are clearly Scipio Tex the Elder.

I play golf in Breckenridge on Friday, again in Denver on Saturday morning, then off to Boulder for some microbrewery, then to the game to see us win about 24-10.

As for the game, is it really possible we will win 4 of our first 5 games by identical 52-10 scores? I’m thinking it’ll be close to that.

If CU’s OL were healthy, this might be more of a contest, but with 3 starters out, our DL is just going to rip poor Cody H. to shreds. I hope his mother doesn’t come to the game.

CU does nothing on defense that will slow our offense down. Of course, we’ll slow ourselves down with our own rushing scheme, but Colt to Quan and Shipley will more than make up for that.

Like you, I came into this season very concerned about the CU game. Of course, before the season began, I was also concerned about Arkansas.

So I got 52-10 in this one. It seems to be a recurring theme.

I’ll take the UTEP score. This game will look similar to that one.

@ Eyes – I’ve been higher on Texas and lower on Colorado than most this season, but do you really think this will be 52-10?

hipho – I think it’s going to be a very, very one-sided game. The 52-10 thing was kind of tongue in cheek, but not entirely out of the question, either.

I’ve got 45-13. Have to preserve the +28-point victory streak as well as the <14 points allowed streak.

Close for 1.5 quarters. Horns put it away in 2nd half with two defensive TD’s. 45-17.

Is Fozzy going to play?

Ransom Stoddard
September 30, 2008 at 4:03 am I play golf in Breckenridge on Friday, again in Denver on Saturday morning, then off to Boulder for some microbrewery, then to the game to see us win about 24-10.

Is there really any difference playing out of a Longhorm patty lie or a Buffalo patty lie? If not, why go…

“QB Dan Hawkins gave the keys of his offense to son Cody and like any good college kid, Cody has wrapped that motherfucker around a lamp post.” Tremendous read with great insight and laughter as always. Thanks Scip.

great ness

texas 38
muffalo 20

Coach McCartney to Dan Hawkins : Meditation is great and all, but I’ve never heard it save anybody from a gang rape type situation.

Damn you Scip, I just Googled Cytherea in my mind. Now my brain is on screen saver.

“I’ve got 45-13. Have to preserve the +28-point victory streak as well as the

The defense continues its progression with some kind sacks and epic turnovers, setting up a short field for Colt McCoy to do some early damage to Captain Kirkendoll with the DEEP BALL.

We have to use that play before OU so that have some film of dangerous formations that they won’t actually see in Dallas.

Darrell Scott switches to a UT jersey at halftime.

I’m less concerned with the score than I am Texas getting some time for Fozzy and the young receivers. GD and Mack can’t take those kids in to the RRS without building some confidence in those guys.

The Sooner pass defense is a major chink in their armor. Shipley & Quan as the only options hamstrings Colt to force plays.

If Fozzy & Mal &/or Collins – Kirk – Buckner all have a good game than I’ll feel much better about the RRS.

For the Arkansas game I grilled some pork ribs and chops. This week I’ll stop washing my hair, make my commute to work on a longboard and use hemp toilet paper.

So I analyzed the points per possession statistics for both teams. As always, drives that ended due to the end of a half are not included. Also, negative points were awarded to offenses for defensive touchdowns and safeties.

After analyzing the teams’ numbers, I plugged in a “nationwide average” points per possession based on different starting positions. This is really only based on the Texas and Colorado averages, so this is by far the weakest part of the analysis. Using all of these numbers I then utilized the Log5 method of calculating the expected points per possession based on different starting positions in this weekend’s game. Only three starting ranges had what could possibly be considered a statistically useful amount of data.

Here is the chart:

As you can see, no matter how you look at it, this game should be a comfortable win. We can expect to outscore Colorado by about 2.5 points for every possession that starts between the 20 and midfield. Based on the number of such possessions so far that’s a starting advantage of 20 points. And that’s before you get into turnovers and field position, areas that we should win based on our overall better team and which will account for the remaining possessions.

Basically, Colorado is going to need a lot of big breaks to win this game. If we don’t do anything stupid, we walk.

I’m just worried that, when Colt/Quan/Shipley explode on them, CU may bring in Cytherea to put out the fire.

Interesting work, Huck.

Squirty like Cytherea, really. You my friend are an outstanding wordsmith.

And if we fall behind we can always put in the Major.

Dan Hawkins : I’M IN FULL GODDAMN CONTROL AND THIS SHIT CAN HAPPEN TO ME.

‘Q package’ may be fading
By Alan Trubow, John Bridges
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Tuesday, September 30, 2008

‘Q package’ falls out of favor

Fans aren’t the only ones who are questioning the purpose of the “Q package,” Texas’ two-quarterback formation in which John Chiles joins Colt McCoy in the game.

Texas coach Mack Brown and offensive coordinator Greg Davis indicated Monday that the formation might have a brief future.

“The Q package right now hasn’t brought us anything much,” Brown said. “We’ll continue to look at it. … It doesn’t look like it’s going to be as involved as we thought at the beginning of the year.”

Brown and Davis cited the development of Texas’ young receivers as a reason the “Q” has seen only limited use. Davis said James Kirkendoll, Malcolm Williams and Brandon Collins have stepped up at receiver, making it less critical that Chiles line up there.

Davis said Chiles continues to need as many snaps as he can get in practice at quarterback, perhaps stunting his development as a receiver.

“John isn’t far enough along as a quarterback to spend all his time at receiver, learning the nuances of that position,” Davis said.

Outstanding reference to Beta.

Malcolm, Malcolm.

The only analysis I need to know is that we are better and they are worse and we are going to ass stomp the Buffs in their own house. That’s the only analysis I care to know and it be good enough for me.

Buff fan here. First off, your blog is awesome. Best football writing on the web. You’re dead on about our O-line. It was young and inexperienced before all the injuries. Now, well, I’m afraid Cody’s going to get seriously hurt – a la Joel Klatt. UT’s got a lot of beef up front. We’ve got some great young speed, but we’re still a year or two away from being a great team. For now, though, it’s gonna be a beautiful day for football in Boulder on Saturday. Hope that those of you attending have a great time in Boulder (if you don’t, something’s seriously wrong with you). Many of us are still licking our wounds from 70-3, which put the nail in Gary Barnett’s coffin (thank you for that part, at least). Unlike a Gary Barnett team, Hawk’s teams have some guts and a lot of pride. I expect a sound UT win, but stranger things have happened at Folsom – just ask Oklahoma.

“Cody is 5-11 190 with a weakish arm. He makes up for it by not being a running threat.”

Thanks, this made my day. Excellent analysis. I expect a relatively slow start that morphs into a thorough thumping and Texas victory.

“The only analysis I need to know is that we are better and they are worse and we are going to ass stomp the Buffs in their own house. That’s the only analysis I care to know and it be good enough for me.”

Yes but I hear their women are especially slutty with the football players. Stay away young steven!

Lotta big spreads forecasted above. Of course there is no money behind them. If there was Vegas might open it enough for me to bet.

Dont look at the FSU game too hard. Their strengths matched up perfectly with our weaknesses. Now I want to hear a barrage of overconfident smack about the Buffs having any strengths.

Do Texas fans know what an Ipod is? Sumpin tells me there are a few Phish phans in Austin.
And where is Coach Callahan? He usually doesnt miss a chance to smugly diss CU (even though there aint no rivalry). Maybe he realizes his team aint any better…..NAH!

“He is his own grandpa”

Josh Smith did “The nasty in the pasty”.

Excellent.

Well, you’re right that there’s no money behind my specific prediction of 45-13.

But money behind Texas -13.5? Certainly.

What could I add that the FSU game didn’t say? I will say this though. It sucks that Miller got hurt and I hope the kid heals quickly and completely he’s a good football player.

Cytherea reference? i’m impressed.

I just feel more comfortable about myself knowing someone else other than me has watched the entirety of one of her videos.

Cytherea reference? i’m impressed.

Whatever.

Are you people kidding me?

I think you picked an unfortunate screen name.

45-3 They won’t do shit.

Oh freeones.com, how I love thee….

Hook ’em

Mockingbird
September 30, 2008 at 6:40 am

The Sooner pass defense is a major chink in their armor.

Not if you can’t run the ball.

Playing in Boulder is worth about 7 points to the buffs (in spite of the horns’ altitude attitude).

It is possible for the buffs to construct an O that can grind clock with half an O line that can run block well at the point of attack, good backs, a QB who can throw short accurately, a good TE, and a good WR.

Because of the buffs’ running attack, the horns will probably stay in a 4-3, instead of a nickel.

Given that the buffs only have 1 good WR and a bunch of good RBs, they might as well replace a WR with an RB. This will make it much easier to force the horns to pass cover a back with an LB (never a good thing).

Presumably Scott will draw a double team so he can be used to clear out an area before the buffs throw short to the back into the vacated area. This might facilitate YAC.

I doubt the horns get that many sacks this weekend because coach Hawkins will attempt to minimize the sacks by mostly running and throwing short passes (he does not want the QB (his boy) getting slaughtered).

The buffs probably don’t throw long much until after the horns’ safeties over commit to stopping the run game (if that ever happens).

The buffs having two good DBs means that possibly they can defend Quan and Ship decently and force Colt to throw elsewhere more than usual. If so, it will be interesting to see who Colt throws to and how successful that is.

Maybe this is the weekend that we see Ogbonnaya at H back. If Collins and Kirkendoll get more snaps at WR, how is Malcolm going to be used? He is a big strong receiver on a team that desperately needs big, strong receivers (i.e. with the loss of Irby and the small stature of Quan, Ship, Kirkendoll, and Collins).

I meant Josh Smith (Scott’s uncle) will draw a double team, not Scott.

Is he worth doubling?

I just don’t see a good scenario for their offense unless our secondary completely loses their mind in play action.

I caught a replay of the OU/CO game from last year and watched the last quarter and a half. It refreshed my memory a little and reminded me of some things they like to do. Most of their offense is generated out of playaction and Hawkins is most effective on rollouts out of playaction and short passes to the TE, or the deeper option of WR on the backside. He really likes to go to the TE. They’ll run a lot of out routes with the WR and corner routes with the TE. What Dan Hawkins really likes to do is test your LBs. After re-watching that game it reminded me of how bad Ryan Reynolds sucks, and how grossly overrated Curtis Lofton was, although he was playing pretty damn salty towards the end of the year. Hawkins had the OU LBs guessing the whole second half, and he’ll do some subtle things formationally to give his OL great blocking angles. He’ll also you the FB lead a lot. Muckelroy should be okay, but I would be a little concerned about Norton. He’ll be running in circles for most of the game. That being said, they don’t really have anything for longer down and distances. Their offense must stay on track on 1st and 2nd down, or the playbook gets pretty limited. 90% of their passing game is generated through playaction.

Well shit, you covered it all in your write-up. Should have known better.

Their defense is sloooooowwwwww. They miss Dizon. Now they are seeing what it’s like to go from DJ to Killebrew.

I bet we can outscore them fairly easily, unless we start fumbling or some shit.

The MU and UT lines are easy money this weekend…unless we start fumbling or some shit.

HJ:
Scipio says that Josh Smith is their only good WR (so I assume Josh is good). If the horns are playing man coverage, then it makes sense that they will give safety help on the best WR that CU has (especially if he is the only good WR for CU).

Scipio:
CU may have a viable offense if they able to run OK against UT. CU ran for 4.7 yards per rush against West Virginia on 45 rushes and racked up 24 first downs. If CU can run close to that effectively against UT and throws short effectively to backs and TE, they could end up grinding a lot of clock.

Running effectively (as you mention) would also make play action more dangerous (especially when you are playing freshman safeties).

UT has also mostly played a nickel against the good passing teams that it has played this season. Against CU, UT will probably have to stay in a 4-3 to deal with CU’s running attack (if CU can run adequately).

CU will probably mostly stick to the short passing game when it passes. Attacking a 4-3 with a short passing game is easier than attacking a nickel because you can pick on an LB rather than a DB. It also presents the opportunity to use some of those running backs that CU has in such abundance (and get a mediocre CU WR off the field). Short passes are easier to catch than long passes and don’t require much pattern running memory/ability (i.e. it is easier for an RB to participate in the short passing game than for longer passes).

Defending short passing is distracting to the LBs, thus has a synergistic effect on the run game.

Lastly, it is nearly impossible to sack the QB on a short pass.

UT has wonderful run D stats this season but has not really been tested by a good running team thus far so we don’t know for sure how good UT is against the run. I am guessing pretty good but you never know until they play the game.

Finally, I found it non trivial to respond to your post because it was so complete. Being a devil’s advocate for the buffs is more interesting than simply saying “Another great post, Scipio”.

Everybody thinks they’ll go into Boulder and roll….until they don’t. It’s a funky place. You’ll win but I be surprised if by more than two TDs.

sheee – yut!
what in the hay -all are you talking about?
pass me another one of them Pearls there son.
aint nuttin but and never been nuttin but ladies on that coloradie football team.

Iffin we dont win by at least 2 dozen touchdowns and I wont renew my season pass to Wolfcreek

Good Analysis, except I think the Colorado corners are a little worse than what was said. However playing in Boulder has proven tougher for teams than expected and with the crowd sold out and being a night game Colorado should come out with some good energy. Second half I see the longhorns pulling away but closer than a lot of posters have it. I’d say 35-24.

This is the type of game the buffs want. you guys came off of a 4 cupcake schedule with all the confidence in the world. you forgot to mention pat williams who hasnt done much due to double coverage. Colorado’s LB’s are top 3 in the conference in my opinion. The runningbacks have a lot of talent limited by a young OL. I think our LB’s will play well but this is our first test. Dont get too confident! I dont want to be another Oklahoma, especially before the RRS!