Your Big 12 Football Primer, Friend-o
by Scipio Tex on Oct 2, 2008 4:54 PM CDT
in Texas Longhorns and Other Football
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PrintThis is the segment in which a cattle gun is placed against my head by Anton Chigurh and I'm told to call it. I have to pick every game, even the ones I feel aren't subject for righteous divination. I'm much better at picking winners than handicapping, but Anton has no pity. The lines this week suck so flipping a coin is probably my best bet, but nonetheless....
Iowa State - Kansas Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa 11:30 a.m. VERSUS
Your first instinct is to take KU and not sweat the points, isn't it? Admit it. Consider this though: Iowa State is bad, but has pride at home. Yeah, they're dirt poor, but they put plastic on the furniture and mow the yard occasionally. Their two losses were both competitive and both on the road. Kansas is coming off of an uninspired home performance against Sam Houston St. And no one, and I mean no one, wants to experience the madness that is Jack Trice Stadium at 11:30 in the morning! Will Iowa State win? No. Can they keep it close enough to make a +12.5/+13.0 betting line interesting? Hmm. Not so sure I'll run to my sportsbook for this one either way, but Anton is getting impatient, so let's call it....
KU - 34
ISU - 24
Baylor - Oklahoma Floyd Casey Stadium, Waco, Texas 11:30 a.m. FSN
Robert Griffin is the most exciting freshman in the country and Art Briles has jacked Baylor's loser mentality up against a locker and given it a bracing slap across the face. OU will score on Baylor's defense like Rosie O' Donnell on the Yale field hockey team. Can Baylor cover +27? There are a lot of a sound historical reasons to dismiss Baylor completely and predict a 56-7 result, but this is an attitudinally different Bear football team. Their performance against UCONN suggests actual balls. But to cover, you're counting on a late score against scrubs and I'm not interested in that....soooo....what to do? Alright, Anton! Alright. Enough with the threats, damn you.
OU - 48
BU - 22
Kansas State - Texas Tech Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kan. 2:30 p.m. ABC
It's appropriate that KSU named their stadium Bill Snyder Family given his famous comment that losing a football game is like losing a child. Perspective, Bill. You emotionless eel. This is a crucial SOT game. SOT = Same Old Tech. If they aspire to be something more than the team that crushes A&M and upsets an occasional big boy while blowing games to the lame and halt - Same Old Tech - they need to go into a hostile environment and convincingly pistol whip a middle of the pack football team like they'd keyed their IROC. Dedfischer's sly West Texan propaganda guised as plain speakin' has influenced me. His posts are the Zimmerman Telegram and I'm easily led. Texas Tech can offer the -7.5 because they're being merciful.
TT - 45
KSU - 28
The betting lines are rough this week
Oklahoma State - Texas A&M Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla. 6:00 p.m.
If A&M Football isn't a mess, it'll do until the mess gets here. Let's face it: everyone in the league is looking forward to this game. Not for the quality of the football, but for the quality of the graphic art that will be placed on Texags.com post-game. The 24.5 point line is shocking. Shocking. Shocking! Let's make this clear: Vegas is saying that OU is to Baylor in roughly the same way that Oklahoma State is to Texas A&M. Think on that for second. If I were an Aggie fan, my mouth would taste of retch. Still, I can't say I disagree. Go get the Scope and cue up the graphic art.
OSU - 45
A&M - 17
Colorado - Texas Folsom Field, Boulder, Colo. 6:00 p.m. FSN
I cover my thoughts in my Texas/Colorado Football Preview. Altitude schmaltitude. Ralphie Schmalphie. Hemp Schmemp. Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Roy Miller, Sergio Kindle and our 19 other rotating defensive ends will pass Cody Hawkins through their stool as easily as Trips Right can pass a vaselined heroin balloon in an El Paso alley.
Texas - 31
Grateful Dead - 13
Nebraska - Missouri Memorial Stadium/Tom Osborne Field, Lincoln, Neb. 8:00 p.m. ESPN
Missouri hasn't won in Lincoln in since the late 1970s when James Wilder ran amok. I don't think I really care. Different Nebraska, different Mizzou. So why is the line 10.5? Is this some sort of trick? It has to be. Still, only way to fight out of an ambush is to trigger it. So fire those claymores.
Mizzou - 34
Nebraska - 21
I'd like to invite you inside to share your own thoughts.
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“…as easily as Trips Right can pass a vaselined heroin balloon in an El Paso alley.”
Oh that’s a winner.
I certainly like Robert Griffin but I’ll be quite (pleasantly) surprised to see Baylor post 22 on OU.
by Minnesotahorn on Oct 2, 2008 5:34 PM CDT reply actions
Robert Griffin, Freshman.
It just screams big plays against Oklahoma. But not all in Baylor’s favor. I wouldn’t be surprised by two big plays for Griffin and three bad turnovers.
by Huckleberry on Oct 2, 2008 6:45 PM CDT reply actions
Half the Oklahoma print media are picking CU in the upset. The other half think CU has at least a good chance to upset.
Are we blinded by our desire for UT to be good or are they blinded by their desire for UT to be bad?
by OK Guy on Oct 2, 2008 6:53 PM CDT reply actions
They are blinded by the fact Oklahoma got upset in Colorado last year.
by Huckleberry on Oct 2, 2008 7:10 PM CDT reply actions
Covers:
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Texas
Baylor
Missouri
Kansas State
Take the overs (whatever they might be)in every game and you’ll win four of six.
by EyesOfTX on Oct 2, 2008 10:15 PM CDT reply actions
> will score…like Rosie O’ Donnell on the Yale field hockey team.
Men’s or women’s?
by sinless1 on Oct 3, 2008 1:39 AM CDT reply actions
“If A&M Football isn’t a mess, it’ll do until the mess gets here.”
Precisely stated. Still, I think A&M plays well enough to keep it within four scores. It won’t be pretty though.
by '01 Ag on Oct 3, 2008 8:05 AM CDT reply actions
Covers:
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Texas
Baylor
Missouri
Kansas State
In order of confidence, my ratings say to bet on:
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Oklahoma St.
Nebraska (?)
Iowa St.
The question mark next to Nebraska is because that’s the one I really don’t get. The Iowa St. pick is with basically zero confidence, so that doesn’t bother me that much.
by Huckleberry on Oct 3, 2008 8:57 AM CDT reply actions
Is that what you’re asking me? Is their something wrong with anything?
Apparently there is and Mike Sherman is the man to talk to.
Nut cuttin time for Texas, OU, Mizzou, and Tech to assert their dominance against the dregs of the Big 12 and get some early separation, like Dez Bryant on Saturday.
All of these projections are covers (save ISU/KU) and that’s exactly how it should play out.
Can we take Robert Griffin to Dallas with us next week?
What time do you close?
Now.
Now is not a time.
What time do you close?
by Vasherized on Oct 3, 2008 9:08 AM CDT reply actions
Oops. I want to amend one game – I though the line in the Tech/KSU game was 17.5, not 7.5. Tech will cover that.
by EyesOfTX on Oct 3, 2008 9:28 AM CDT reply actions
“Are we blinded by our desire for UT to be good or are they blinded by their desire for UT to be bad?”
I am not dumb enough after watching Stoops/Mack butt heads for a decade to think Texas will win but wow it is hard to not like the way no one gives Texas a prayer against OU this year. They are a complete afterthought on the national stage. Take care of business this week and it should be a highly motivated team in Dallas. At least you would hope so.
by Shockthenation on Oct 3, 2008 10:22 AM CDT reply actions
“Can we take Robert Griffin to Dallas with us next week? "
To play running back?
by dick on Oct 3, 2008 10:23 AM CDT reply actions
Scipio:
I think the horns win by something like 10 points (i.e. I am less confident than you about this outcome by 8 points).
The buffs will be a step up in competition from the previous 4 opponents and will be able to exploit some of the horns’ weaknesses.
Quan and Ship will not be as wildly successful as in previous games. The buffs will focus on containing them and trying to force Colt to throw to somebody else.
The buffs will play a bunch of nickel and dare the horns to run.
It will be interesting to see how the horns react. Does GD line up 2 TE sets and try to pound the ball down the buffs’ throat? My guess is that won’t work too well against the buffs (though it will get the horns out of the nickel).
I am guessing Fozzy plays as little as possible so that he will be available against OU. That won’t help the running game against the buffs.
Does GD essentially give up on the TEs and go with 4 WRs or 3 WRs and 2 running backs? Does he make no change and pretend that the TE situation is cool?
On D, it will be interesting to see how UT defends the buffs’ running game. If the buffs can’t run, they are in deep shit and the game is a rout.
If the buffs can run OK, it really changes the dynamic of the game:
- the game gets a lot shorter (not a good thing for the horns),
- UT is forced to play mostly 4-3 instead of nickel,
- CU gets to pick on LBs in the short passing game,
- CU TBs will be dealing with slower LBs (relative to safeties) on outside runs,
- UT’s freshman safeties will probably get burned on play action passes a few times
by Kafka on Oct 3, 2008 11:18 AM CDT reply actions
where is trips? Not that there is anything wrong with these picks.
by 2teamer on Oct 3, 2008 1:31 PM CDT reply actions
sinless1: I didn’t realize field hockey was played by men too?
by TWC on Oct 3, 2008 2:09 PM CDT reply actions
2teamer:
Trips isn’t doing his damn job, so you’ll have to make do with my shitty picks.
Kafka:
CU’s base personnel grouping is one back, three wide, one TE (11) but they obviously give you a lot of looks. We’re not running a 4-3 against that. We’ll be in nickel. If they insert an extra TE or back, we’ll respond accordingly. I’m not really concerned. It’s a telegraphed adjustment.
As for us, CU must play a nickel because we’ll spend 80% of our downs in 3 or 4 WR. If Ullman is at TE, we’ll probably max protect with him unless Colorado just completely ignores him in which case we’ll be delighted by the sight of Peter running a 5.2 40 down the seam. I’ll be very curious to see if CU walks their corners up and tries to press cover to knock of our timing and challenge our guys ability to get deep.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 3, 2008 3:28 PM CDT reply actions
Can’t wait for the day Mark Richt brings the Bulldogs to College Station.
Sunday headline: “Georgia Marches Through Sherman”
by Parlin Hall on Oct 3, 2008 7:39 PM CDT reply actions
Over 67 in Texas Tech/K State game seems extremely doable.
Illinois +3 at Michigan…The wrong team is getting points.
Over 64 in Texas A&M/Oklahoma State again very doable…Gundy might make that number himself.
I like Mizzou -10.5 too.
by BRAGGonUT on Oct 4, 2008 10:44 AM CDT reply actions
Scipio:
“CU’s base personnel grouping is one back, three wide, one TE (11) but they obviously give you a lot of looks. We’re not running a 4-3 against that. We’ll be in nickel. If they insert an extra TE or back, we’ll respond accordingly.”
Yeah, this is all SWAG on my part. My SWAG is that coach Hawkins adjusts his O to match up with UT’s D (you had mentioned previously that he is a take what the D gives you kind of coach).
CU can’t pass pass block against the UT rush with half their O line hurt so there is not that much point in playing 3 WRs. In addition, you mentioned that CU only has 1 good WR but several good RBs so why not replace one of the mediocre WRs with a good RB? It not only boosts the CU run game (which is critical to the buffs’ success) but it also permits better pass blocking.
Scott has been hurt but they say he is healthy now so today might be a great game for him to get more PT (as that additional RB).
If my SWAG comes true, then UT has to play a 4-3 against CU. Unless, of course, CU inserts the additional RB as a WR (ala Ramonce in 2005). Then the horns probably stay in nickel.
CU would be insane not to run a nickel against UT, the question is can UT run effectively against that nickel. I hope I don’t see to much of Ullman (except on 3rd and 1).
I guess CU changes up their coverages (multiplicity) so they are going to be pressing some of the time on Shipley and Quan.
by Kafka on Oct 4, 2008 10:50 AM CDT reply actions
sooners have hung 21 in the first 11 minutes. Muy feo!
by ATXHornsFan on Oct 4, 2008 11:31 AM CDT reply actions
I think the halftime reporter of the Iowa St-Kansas game just grabbed Gene Chizik’s ass.
by HenryJames on Oct 4, 2008 12:15 PM CDT reply actions
“…I’ll be quite (pleasantly) surprised to see Baylor post 22 on OU.”
Consider yourself quite (pleasantly) surprised, Minnesota—Baylor’s going to put up 24. They put up 119 yards rushing against OU in the first half. Can Colt do what Robert Griffin is doing? We’ll know soon enough.
by ArmTackler on Oct 4, 2008 1:35 PM CDT reply actions
5-1 ATS.
4-0 on my high confidence picks, 1-1 on my uncertains.
by Scipio Tex on Oct 4, 2008 10:08 PM CDT reply actions
Baylor put up 17. Not quite 22, but about what I expected.
That said, can Colt do what Robert Griffin is doing? I don’t know, can he be a legit contender for a spot on the 2012 Olympic track team as a 400m hurdles sprinter? Can he be a mediocre passer? I think the answer to both of those questions is “no”.
by NateHeupel on Oct 4, 2008 10:28 PM CDT reply actions
well done my friend. Anything at noon tomorrow?
by 2teamer on Oct 4, 2008 11:25 PM CDT reply actions
Scipio
Based on the outcomes of this past weekend, I just need a couple of rides in that DeLorean so that I, too can get the copy of Grays Sports Almanac you evidently found in the garbage.
What do the pages say about Saturday’s game in Dallas?
by west_coast on Oct 5, 2008 10:11 PM CDT reply actions
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