Barking Bets Week 9

by Barking Carnival Staff on Oct 24, 2008 11:16 AM CDT

Well went a stellar 4-0 hitting both my 2 unit plays which runs my post Hurricane Ike record to 6-3 up 3.6 units. Let's keep this thing rolling into week 9. On to the bets.

Oregon -3 at Arizona State. 1 unit. This game is all about the matchups and when you take one of the top 10 defensive lines in the country and pit them against the revolving door that comprises the Sun Devil offensive line, a crew that's not all that fond of who they're protecting, then you have a recipe for domination. Throw in the fact that the Sun Devil running game ranks ahead of only SMU and SDSU, and you have to begin to wonder how ASU is going to move the football. It's certainly a bad set of circumstances for a loud mouth QB who will be coming into the game hobbled. Oregon averaged 3.25 sacks per game while ASU is giving up 2.5 sacks per. Reminds me of the baby wildebeest being pulled by a crocodile and a pride of lions. Except the wildebeest will have faired better.

Offensively, Bellotti's squad will find ways to move the ball on an undisciplined ASU defense. Any kind of TD or better lead in this game for the Ducks spells doom for the one dimensional Sun Devils. It wouldn't shock me to see Carpenter gone by halftime. Oregon rolls 31 to 17.

JPW
Betting against you, JPW.

Tennessee +6 vs. Alabama. 2 units. The bet boils down to a bet against John Parker Wilson moving the ball through the air in Knoxville. Tennessee has one of the most underrated defenses in the nation, and excels in stopping good running attacks. The Vols allow just 3.4 yards per rush against teams that average 5.5 yards per rush. That's two full yards per rush below average, Huck. That's clutch. And Alabama's rushing attack has been stymied by good rush defenses in Clemson, Georgia, and Ole Miss this season. You should expect more of the same from a fired up Volunteer club playing at home.

Offensively, inserting Nick Stephens at QB has jumpstarted what was a putrid Volunteer passing game. In his three starts, Stephens is averaging 6.2 yards per pass vs. teams that allow just 5.8. Alabama's defense won't be at full strength, losing star DT Terrence Cody to injury, but the Tide will still give the Vols a lot of trouble. The bet on this side requires the Vols to get to 17 or more to cover this bet. And I think they will. 21 to 20 Alabama.

JPW
T, I need 150 yards passing, 75 rushing, and no picks.

Ohio State +3 vs. Penn State. 1 unit. This is more of angle play than it is a straight numbers wager. Penn State has gotten it done offensively this year, especially when you compare them to an often stagnant Buckeye offense. But a night game in Columbus should have the OSU defense sky high and ready to handle the potent Nittany Lion attack.

Offensively, the Buckeyes are about .75 yards per play better with Beanie Wells and Terrell Pryor in the backfield together. That trend should only improve as the freshman phenom gets more acclimated to big time college football. And in Penn State's only contest against a dual threat QB, Juice Williams of Illinois moved the Illini offense to the tune of nearly 400 yards of total offense in a relatively close game. In Happy Valley.

Look for Penn State to struggle offensively with its first test against a top 25 defense. In the shoe. At night. The stench of freshly gasoline doused couches in the air. Watch Tressel protect his young QB by moving the ball on the ground, biding his time for the big play over the top. tOSU 24 Penn State 20.

Mizzou -24 vs. Colorado. 1 unit. This is the game where Mizzou gets to take the donut off of their Louisville Slugger. Or New York Yankee mini-bat if your Chase Daniel. After facing two top 10 teams in back to back weeks, the Tigers have a chance to get well against a trouble stricken CU team. The Buffs have injuries up and down their Oline, dissention in the ranks from a brewing QB controversy, and lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball. And now they get Missouri, a team that scored a TD on every opening possession prior to the OSU game.

Offensively, Mizzou averages 54 points against defenses not named Texas or Oke State. Defensively, Mizzou gets to face an inept Buff offense that averages just 4.5 yards per play against a schedule that gives up a full yard more on average. Anecdotal evidence of Colorado's offense sucking is found in last week's 14 point explosion against a bad KSU defense.

Pinkel is 18-3-1 ATS as a favorite of 14.5 points or more. The Tigers bounce back in a big way and don't take their foot off the gas 48 to 10.

Good luck with the bets, and be sure to check out Huck's computer picks, and Scipio's Big 12 predictions.

Hook 'EM.

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Comments

I don’t care what Nerdbooger says. That boy Pryor can’t throw the rock or he throws a football like an actual rock. And a team needs to be able to throw the ball to win when you get in a big game. Look at all the problems VY had in big games before he became somewhat proficient in the passing game, and Pryor is no where near the athlete VY was on the ground. Don’t see how OSU pulls this one out with a duck dinker like Pryor leading them.

by steven on Oct 24, 2008 11:57 AM CDT reply actions

I can’t remember the last time Ohio state lost a night game at the shoe.

by Trips Right on Oct 24, 2008 12:41 PM CDT reply actions

Well that’s kind of unsettling. For some reason steven associates me with Terrelle Pryor.

by Nordberg on Oct 24, 2008 12:50 PM CDT reply actions

Um, maybe that’s cause you went on record saying I’m an idiot and absurd for saying Pryor can’t throw a college level pass. Man, you have short ass and selective memory, buddy. Like I said, just go and sit down with Whoo Tex and watch OSU get beat. And quit trying to deny and chicken out of your prior statements. You might not remember but I sure do and I sure will after PSU puts the beat down on Pryor and OSU, just like I remembered your Mizzou statements, while you seemed to have, once again, forgotten the inaccurate dribble that passed from your lips.

by steven on Oct 24, 2008 1:21 PM CDT reply actions

You need help.

by Nordberg on Oct 24, 2008 1:29 PM CDT reply actions

At least I have a functioning MEMORY and am not suffering from what appears to be fooball alzheimer’s.

by steven on Oct 24, 2008 1:32 PM CDT reply actions

Trips -

I’m working on a new system that is intended solely to forecast spreads and totals. My existing ratings set is really intended more to rank teams and it’s becoming increasingly obvious that my efforts to retrofit a score forecast model using those ratings are nothing more than a wild goose chase.

by Huckleberry on Oct 24, 2008 2:14 PM CDT reply actions

Huck,

Jeff Sagarin has the predictor poll which can be used to compute spreads. Have you looked at that in any depth? How will your approach differ (if that is not a proprietary intellectual property) from Sagarin’s?

by Kafka on Oct 24, 2008 2:24 PM CDT reply actions

Well, mine will use all 716 college football teams and won’t stop at FCS teams, although that impact will be negligible. The biggest difference is that I will know how this one works and what it’s doing. Sagarin has not and will not release his algorithm.

by Huckleberry on Oct 24, 2008 2:30 PM CDT reply actions

Jesus! That steven is a riot…Nordberg, you must feel so lucky!

by uthookem on Oct 24, 2008 3:09 PM CDT reply actions

Your Tennesee pick is ballsy, but I see your reasoning.

You can also point to Penn State’s first half against Michigan to support your zone read contention. They actually benched two starting LBs at one point in order to get a spark after the Wolverines were carving them up with Threet running option.

by Scipio Tex on Oct 24, 2008 4:34 PM CDT reply actions

I like the Ohio State pick. I don’t like the Tennessee pick. But in the interest of full disclosure, I’m not betting either one of them.

by EyesOfTX on Oct 24, 2008 4:38 PM CDT reply actions

Okay, the new ratings algorithm is at least to the rough draft point. Here they are.

There are still normalized ratings on there, but the key things to look at are the “Pwr”, “Off”, and “Def” columns. To predict the point spread between two teams, take the difference in their Pwr ratings and add homefield advantage as necessary, which is 2.27 in this iteration. I’m working on having individual team homefield advantages because the lower classifications are dragging that number down, but it seems impossible without Bayesian weighting from previous seasons.

To predict the score for each team in the matchup, start with their “Off” rating and subtract the opponent’s “Def” rating. If using homefield advantage, add half the homefield number to the home team and subtract half the number from the visiting team.

The ratings are through last week, so they don’t take into account the weeknight games. Some predicted finals:

Texas 39-23 over Oklahoma St.
Penn St. 32-18 over Ohio St. (yuck)
Georgia 35-26 over LSU
Alabama 24-14 over Tennessee
Tech 32-29 over Kansas

I haven’t given it a real good review yet, though. Will hopefully be able to tweak it if necessary next week.

by Huckleberry on Oct 25, 2008 11:01 AM CDT reply actions