Barking Bets Week 10

Went a modest 2-2 last week but lost my 2 unit play. The Great Pumpkin needs to be fired for the effort Tennessee put forth. Goodness I hate Phil Fulmer. My lord.

The wins, however, were routine with Mizzou and Oregon routs. The tOSU game looked to be in the bag for a nice 3-1 day until Pryor fumbled in plus territory when a field goal ensures the cover. Oh well, thems the breaks. Record stands at 8-5, up 2.4 units. On to the action. For the king of Big 12 Capping check out Scip's weekly winners. Even if you don't wager, you can watch CTJ attack Scip with a spork for his TAMU pick.

snead
Thanks Clint Stoerner.

Ole Miss -6.5 vs. Auburn. 2 units. You need to look no further than last Thursday night's stinker for evidence that Auburn is done. They opened up a big can of quit against a West Virginia squad that is a notoriously soft front runner. After being down 17 to 3, the 'Neers ran off 35 unanswered points on their way to a shellacking of the once proud SEC defensive monster. Defensively the Tigers are statistical pretenders that have given up atleast 5.8 yards per play in 3 out of the last 6 games, 6.1 to LSU, 5.8 to Arkansas, and a whopping 7.9 to WVA. They've feasted on the bottom feeding offenses of the SEC and a weak non-conference slate.

So, what happens when you throw a better than average offense at them? More of the same I suspect. Ole Miss, who happens to be averaging 5.4 yards per play or more against Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina, should be able to score on the depleted Auburn stop unit. Defensively, Mississippi averages just 4.3 yards a play against a schedule that should yield 5.5 yards per play to an average team. Ask Will Muschamp about Auburn's offensive ineptness. Should be easy pickens once Mississippi gets a lead in Oxford. Rebels win comfortably 31 to 17.

snead
Managing to avoid the Mack Brown curse.

Iowa +2.5 @ Illinois. 1 unit This ones as easy as finding New Order on HenryJames' IPOD. This is one of the worst possible matchups that an overrated Illinois team can have. If you don't believe me, look at least week's game at Wisconsin. That's the formula for beating the Illini. Run the ball on a porous Illini defense. Stop the run and force Juice Newton Williams to beat you. Rinse repeat.

Do it with a better defense, a more talented running back, and a better coach and it's that much easier. That's what Iowa is. A better version of the Badgers and the third best team in the Big 10. Illinois is getting all the money, and the line hasn't moved. That tells you a lot. Iowa is flying under the radar, yet they continue to get that paper week in and week out. Wrong team favored. Coming off the bye I like a rested Iowa team to wax a beaten down Illini club. Iowa 30 to 24.

Clemson +4 @ Boston College. 1 unit So Dabo Swiney, new Tiger's coach, probably doesn't fare to well in Vegas. Each of his three losses as Clemson's head coach have been by 5 points or less and Clemson was -3, -1, and -4 in the turnover column in those contests. It's a trend that is unlikely to continue. So, naturally, let's bet on it. This is also the week that the Tigers get QB Cullen Harper and star running back CJ Spiller back healthy.

Numbers wise, Clemson has been slightly above average on offense, netting 5.3 yards per play vs. a schedule that would yield 5.1 to an average team. BC's defense is good, but with injuries to stars Brian Toals and Wes Davis, Clemson's trio of Harper, Spiller, and James Davis should be able to move the ball and put up points.

On other side of the ball the Clemson defense is downright nasty, holding opponents to 4.6 yards per play against a schedule that moves the ball at a rate of 5.7 yards per play against an average defensive team. And to boot, BC's offense is as pedestrian as they come picking up just 5.0 yards per play against a schedule that yields 5.4 to an average offense.

I look for a lower scoring affair, and I feel confident in the cover if Clemson can stay -1 or better in the turnover department. Play even in this category, and the Tigers should get the outright win. Clemson 17 to 13.

LSU -26 vs. Tulane. 1 unit Remember when we bet this game last week? You know, when Mizzou and Colorado were the participants. Same situation, but his time we get to pound a non BCS school. And Lester Miles loves him some non-BCS Tiger bait.

Numbers wise, the LSU defense has shown to be an overly dominant football team against below average offensive football teams. Oustside of Georgia and Florida, the Tigers allow a paltry 4.2 yards per play against offenses that pick up 5 ypp vs. average defenses. Tulane's offense certainly fits the bill here after losing star WR Jeremy Williams and stud RB Andre Anderson to injury. I don't expect Tulane to move the chains much at all.

Offensively, this should be the game freshman QB Jarrett Lee gets well. After facing Georgia and LSU, the inexperienced QB should find much larger windows to throw to when facing the Green Wave secondary. The Green Wave has allowed 7 ypp, 6.9 ypp, and 6.9 ypp to Army, UTEP, and Rice respectively. Expect for the LSU attack to surpass those numbers and have about a 300 yard advantage in total offense. LSU big, 48 to 10.

swinney
Dabo needs to pull the right strings for his first win.

Good luck on your action.

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