Big 12 Betting Week 7

by Scipio Tex on Nov 13, 2008 8:36 PM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

After a weak week, I'm 18-17-1. I blame the Big 12 North Division. I have no idea what to do with Conference USA Del Norte. Their games follow no logic and I have minimal ability to discern degrees of bad once you get past Missouri: is it offal that beats rubbish? Garbage edges excrement? Flotsam gets the nod over dross? This has been good mental preparation for picking A&M/Baylor, the South's contribution to the Patriot League. From now on the Atomic Teeth guys are handling my North picks.

A&M +8.5 @ Baylor

I like the Bears to win outright, but I'm not comfortable giving up the 8.5 when this is this the largest betting line offered Baylor since 1996 against a Big 12 opponent. Having faith in the Aggies is a tenuous enterprise (ask Aggie fans) but Bill Byrne wrote in his newsletter that A&M is turning the corner. He also wrote about pinning his car on a concrete parking barrier, raccoons, and recently ranted about batshit; I believe that he may actually be mentally ill.

Baylor - 35
A&M - 27

Texas -13 @ Kansas

KU OL AWOL. KU DB PU. UT DL OK. If you need more, read this.

Texas - 41
KU - 24

Mizzou @ ISU +28

I give ISU a reasonable chance to cover. Strong winds. 35 degrees. In Ames. And Missouri does have a recent history of struggling there. Their bored effort against a decapitated KSU squad did not impress though Chase Coffman is healthy again. He should be good for 10 catches. Maclin shuts its down after his third touchdown to drink hot cocoa and that gives Iowa State just enough breathing room to score a late charity touchdown to cover.

Mizzou - 41
ISU - 14

NU -6 @ KSU

This strikes me as the easiest money one can find. Almost too easy. That's how I like my bets and my ladies. I'm taking the bait on behalf of the Bugeaters.

Nebraska - 38
KSU- 21

OSU - 16.5 @ CU

OSU was humiliated in Lubbock and I anticipate a bounceback game to get out some of the demons. Colorado is just a bad offensive football team though Sadie Hawkins showed some life late to pull out the thriller with Iowa State. If OSU struggles here, they're a mirage projected onto a myth.

OSU - 41
CU - 21

OU and Texas Tech are both idle.

I like Bleak Landscape -11 over Oklahoma.

I like Syphilis -27.5 over Texas Tech at home.

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Comments

Chlamydia’s the real pain in the ass. Mostly asymptomatic in men? How the fuck are you supposed to explain that to the Zetas?

by mojavereject on Nov 13, 2008 9:51 PM CST reply actions

The line on the CU/OSU game is hard to believe. CU is really bad. That line should be over 20. A gift from Vegas.

Fully agree on your pick for the OU idle.

by EyesOfTX on Nov 14, 2008 6:58 AM CST reply actions

I find the Baylor/A&M game extremely challenging to pick. A lot of factors to consider there.

by Scipio Tex on Nov 14, 2008 12:04 PM CST reply actions

I agree with all of them.

Anyone laying 8.5 with the Baylor Bears needs to have their head examined. They might cover that number, but I’m not into betting on “there’s a first time for everything”.

by Trips Right on Nov 14, 2008 12:17 PM CST reply actions

What does A&M have to rally for? Pride? It is a rivalry game after all.

The line is too big though. It’s simply an unpickable game – Vegas should just take it off the board.

I agree Chiz will rally his troops one last time (seems to happen every 4-5 games) to barely cover with an admirable 24 point loss.

Syphilis covers easily. I have proof, dating back to the game in 2002. Double ouch.

by Vasherized on Nov 14, 2008 12:23 PM CST reply actions

My power ratings model says

Baylor – 0.16
Texas – 7.75
Missouri – 0.87
Kansas State – 0.33
Oklahoma State – 4.94

by Huckleberry on Nov 14, 2008 12:33 PM CST reply actions

What do I multiply that number by to get the score differential?

by Scipio Tex on Nov 14, 2008 1:42 PM CST reply actions

11.

Huck, if you and Euclid ever teamed up you could rule the world.

by Phenomenal Smith on Nov 14, 2008 2:21 PM CST reply actions

Hey, we (or at least I) suck at picking the North, too. I ran up a gaudy record in non-con by picking OSU/UT/OU against all comers. I do know one thing, when a team is giving almost as many points as they average scoring, don’t pick them (CU -10 last week).

I like NU and OSU quite a bit this week. I’m contractually obligated to not pick against Mizzou, but I like ISU in that one. Pinkel is not going to run it up against ISU. Although it is possible that ISU scores negative points.

Which reminds me…why aren’t defensive scores counted as a negative for the opposing team? That would make offensive accounting easier (no credit for defensive TDs), and put an end to any potential SEC fan field rushing, as most would be unsure of the victor’s identity in the inevitable -23 to -18 thrillers.

by Gene Claude on Nov 14, 2008 2:21 PM CST reply actions

The number only means the difference between the spread and the predicted margin. So basically the ratings say Baylor should win on average by 8.66 points, meaning only a 0.16 number for that one.

So, as you can see, the system only disagrees with the spreads significantly on Texas and Oklahoma State.

by Huckleberry on Nov 14, 2008 2:24 PM CST reply actions

I also did very well picking against A&M earlier this year, but they are not the same team they were 6 weeks ago. I don’t know what to do on Baylor and A&M.

I like UT a lot also, but that could be because I’m contractually obligated to think KU blows. Those jackasses ruined our investment in 24 MU/KU tickets. Now we are going to be forced to sell them at face to Mizzou fans.

by Gene Claude on Nov 14, 2008 2:29 PM CST reply actions

Don’t forget the convenience fee. That should be worth an extra $25 per ticket.

by Huckleberry on Nov 14, 2008 2:32 PM CST reply actions

Huck, interesting that your system has KSU and NU that close. That feels like a trap to me for some reason. Hard to get a handle on what is going on at KSU. I expected a complete meltdown, but that hasn’t happened.

by Gene Claude on Nov 14, 2008 2:35 PM CST reply actions

I thought the same thing. My system has Nebraska as a 5.67-point favorite and I thought that was way low so I checked what Sagarin has it as. He’s got Nebraska by 6.65 points, so mine isn’t that out of whack.

by Huckleberry on Nov 14, 2008 3:16 PM CST reply actions