Revisiting the defensive stats that matter

Nice post. I have a couple of suggestions for improvement, however: (1) the chart could use even more unexplained parentheticals and (2) I like that percentage values appear out of nowhere, but it might be more helpful to give these values in decibel units, expressed in Roman numerals.

kthxbye!

Good post and certainly very encouraging. Those numbers should improve now that we’ll finally have a defensive system building on itself year after year. Self scouting and tendencies will replace defensive hobgoblins busted coverage and missed assignment. I’m okay with that.

This is when you are at your best. Offering up facts and stats. Along with your peerless C&P ability you are the master of the hard truth.

It’s only when you get into commentary, personal observations, and opinions that you suffer embarrassing moments. Or when you become “witty.”

Anyway, good job,and I like the 30 points you gave Tech. That’s what the defense gave up.

Texas is going to play balls to the walls defense for many many years now.

Thanks for adding the explanation. I figured that’s what you meant.

Anyway, like I said, nice post. I’d like to see a similar analysis for the offense. My biggest issue with GD over the years has been his team’s underperformance against top defenses. I get the sense that the Horns don’t have that problem this season.

Damn nice job illuminating what we’ve all sensed. Thanks for your efforts on this.

I have been talking about this all year. The great part is we are able to improve this much, and we aren’t even close to the ceiling.

 For a quick example, imagine how much better these numbers would be if we could have held on to the gazillion interceptions we had our hands on. I can think of at least 1 game that would be 7 points less.

I saw what you did there. If you take out the 3 weaker sister teams you added to this year’s tabulation to skew the results relative to last year, you get the following Average %s for 2008:

89% 93.9% 97.7% 64.7%

So even though category results are better than last year across the board, you can argue that 3rd down and red zone %s are still banging around statistical average, with YPA showing moderate statistical inprovement, and Points Allowed the telling Muschamp statistic for this year’s defense’s performance, with significant decrease against opposing team ppg average and improvement over last year’s results.

Good post, but the stats prompt a question:

Why doesn’t Doperbo write more?

I’ll hang up and listen for your response off the air.

The ‘3 weaker sister teams’ I added are all ranked in the Top 30 in both total offense and scoring. One of them is ranked in the Top 10 in both.

Yeah, this year’s defense is stout, alright, in absolute terms, but for a valid pre/post Muschamp comparison with last year’s team, you need the data bases to be as similar as you can make it, ±revolving/evolving players.

As all good Barking Carnival fans know, my power ratings’ defense number is based on how many points you prevent your opponents from scoring on average. Although I won’t upload the new ratings until after Saturday’s games, after giving up only 9 last night to A&M, we are now #3 in the nation with a defense rating of 40.03; last year through the A&M game our defense rating was 28.46, which was good for #32 in the nation.

One way of looking at that information is that last year’s defense would be expected to give up over 30 points per game against the schedule we’ve faced this year.

‘Who wants a Muschamp ride?’ is pure excellence.

You know, thinking about last night’s A&M game and how style points are better defined by margin of victory instead of the more popularly perceived total points, one consequence of GD’s "controlled" east-west offense is that the opposing team has less time to be on the field to score, the defense is better rested, and total points for both teams is thusly skewed downward.

Hence I think the better statistical pointers for defense power rankings are yards allowed and points allowed per offensive play. Team offenses with more time on the field have more opportunities to progress and score against the defense, so that teams that employ quick-strike schemes to score in fewer plays allow the opposing team more time on the field, more plays, etc. Defensive performance per offensive play basis then becomes the equalizer.

It’s worth noting that A&M was only held below 21 once this year, in their opener (14).

Last year they were held to 7 by Tech in Lubbock.

In 2004 they were held to 7 by Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl.

So in 5 seasons, they’ve been held to single digits only three times—and last night was one. Doesn’t suck.

Serious question. If Akina were our DC again this year and our stats and record were exactly the same, would you have the same perception of our defense?

I posted this on BON awhile back, but curious about the answer here.

Personally, I think we’d all be hung up on the first level stats (total yards, passing yards), not going this deep into stats, and crucifying the defense.

I am an Aggie—what is this thing called “Defense” to which you keep referring?

It’s funny to see that we aren’t meeting Muschamp’s goals on those metrics. With the regular season over, it’s obvious that Texas has the Big 12’s best defense. Pick your metric- yards allowed, points allowed, use all games or just league games…Texas has the best defense. That’s with us playing the league’s best offenses (OU, Tech, Mizzou, OSU, KU). Who would have expected that?