Professional Barking Bowl Bets

ok ok it has been a strange year and you are still + this year. Don’t quit now. Take a deep breath, relax and focus. You are The Man.

However, I’m going to need some 5* plays in the next couple of weeks.

2teamer, thanks, but I’ve got to focus on basketball. This dude’s legit, and he’ll make you money.

Play his ten plays because he puts a lot of time in them. He’s been capping them for the last 2 and half weeks.

The Wake write up is about to be posted. Take a look and you’ll see what I mean.

Perhaps it is my bias/hate of OU clouding my judgment, but I really like Florida and would move them up to a definite play. I also like Tech, NU and Kansas, but maybe I’m just overrating the big 12 this year.

where can I get -8?

Everywhere now. Dr. Bob moved the line down.

trips, thanks got it. I’ll be 3 row center court tomorrow. Give me your picks (including eATMe).

Against the number?

yep. thanks

Interesting picks, Kyle—thanks for these. If you have a chance, would like to hear your reasoning on the Clemson play.

Don’t know if I would touch that game: Clemson with the staff shake-up, and NU playing well (TT) and poorly (OU) in high-pressure road games this year. NU surprisingly dominant in time of possession, and Pelini’s track record is good in bowl games (2003 NU vs. Michigan State; 2008 LSU vs. OSU). To cover, Clemson may need to pass more effectively than they have so far.

Is this the same vegas kyle from cappingthegame.com?

Vasher, yes.

2 teamer, I like Texas to cover the 6.5

I like TAMU to cover the 1, but not as much.

Parlin — Team has really rallied around Dabo Swinney and picked it up the second half of the year. This is mostly a bet based on the fact that Clemson has arguably the best defense that Nebraska has seen all season. It has been a few years since Nebraska defense has shown the ability to shut people down. Nebraska lost their lone game vs the ACC this year at home in a 30-35 home lossto Virginia Tech, where they were held to 55 yards rushing.

I do agree that clemson will have to beat their season average throwing the football in this game but that should not be a problem against a team that gives up an average of 8.1 yards per pass attempt.

Clemson has a top tier pass defense which is what you need against Nebraska. Will try to get more detailed as game time nears but the is the basis of the clemson look.

Thanks, miners. Your reasoning makes a lot of sense. What leads me to be leery of this game is that both teams are very different from what they were in September.

NU, for instance, has found its identity on offense since giving up the heavy sets after the Mizzou beatdown. They’ve relied on a combination of Helu’s north-to-south running and playcalling that devours clock.

The NU secondary will indeed give up at least one long TD they shouldn’t. Whether Ganz presses in response will be key. He played poorly in two big games (MU, OU) this year, and well in some others (TT, KU, CU). You never know which Joe is going to show up.

I rate clemson as probably a better defense than the five defenses mentioned above but it is hard to tell when the BIG 12 plays such efficient offense and the ACC plays such anemic offense.

I like Ganz and Nebraska will make a few plays. I just think that what plagued Clemson ( overrated heavily in the off season ) in the early part of the year was a young offensive line and bad team chemistry. The line has matured nicely and the team seemed to respond after Bowden departure and Dabo taking the reigns.

I just feel there are times when I have to take my chances with the vastly superior defense.

On a side note , Nebraska has a little play that they run that I think we will start seeing other teams employ more when they see it on tape. They semi-roll Ganz and then slip the RB in for what I will call almost a middle slip screen. I have seen them run it several times and they have executed the play well. Utilizes some of the principles of shovel pass.

Hope to have more insight on this game nearer to game day.

I just wanted to say that I may have extra on the TCU and Iowa plays but I don’t believe in the multi-unit betting system. I added the 2 unit best bets for those of you who do bet multiple units in a game as those are the two biggest values in my estimation.

I cannot recommend a play for the motor city bowl between central michigan and florida atlantic. I believe that the line is right given central michigans inability to defend , which could either make the game competitive or leave the backdoor open at all times. However , FAU will be without 4 starters who are ineligible for this game. One linebacker , two offensive linemen and their placekicker Leroy. So there is some definite depletion on the FAU side.

I also cannot recommend a play on miami of florida. I want no part of laying that kind of number with Cal against decent competition but with Marve out ( and probably considering transferring again , which would mean sitting out yet another year ) and Harris getting the go , there is serious depth concern. I actually prefer Harris over Marve as a college player however. In addition to marve , miami suspended 3 other players for this game although their roles are small. Too many off the field issues right now to back them. Line is close enough to keep me off the dog.

Not playing the west virginia vs north carolina game either. Game looks to be a complete tossup to me and both teams are very inconsistent. What edge that I give to West
Virginia on the field , I take away when looking at the coaching mismatch of Davis vs Stewart.

Wisconsin is still under consideration.

That is how it is looking right now.

Also , I should have a little writeup on LaTech prior to kickoff to give you confidence. I have not bet it yet but it is a definite play for me. I will be interested to see if the WAC bowl performances moves this line any to give us even more value with LaTech. With TCU dominating Boise , Colorado st putting up over 600 yards on Fresno st and Notre dame spanking Hawaii the betting public might start fading the WAC.

Talk at you all later

what do you think about Miami getting 10 now? those suspended players are not that vital and i agree that harris is a better player than marve anyways. the depth is not that big of an issue for just this one game.

i really wish i could receive a sign on unc/wva. that one is too much of a tossup

miami florida is a hard team to back in this one. Semi-home game for Cal , suspended players , Cal is a different team with J BEST in the game , Miamifl has struggled vs quality rush attacks. I actually prefer Harris to Marve. I can understand taking the points at 10 against a pac-10 school but i can’t recommend it.

The best option in the wvu/unc game may very well be the under. Check the weather on that one during pregame and if it looks ugly it might be worth a go. 50% chance of rain and heavy winds in the forecast last night but i haven’t checked current status yet. As for the side , i made that game a pickem pretty much so for me it would be dog or nothing. I can’t recommend a play there either.

if you can get a 6.5 with wisconsin , that is worth a shot in my opinion. 6 or less i wont be playing.

Hate not being able to recommend a play on day with three bowl games but we are about making money.

my leans on these games for the action junkies are

wisconsin
wisconsin/fsu under
unc
unc/wvu under
northwestern
northwestern/mizzou over

But again , not enough value for my money on any of them unless wisconsin hits a 6.5

miami florida
miami/cal over

dont know why i threw the nw/mizzou game in there for today.

Louisiana Tech is a nice play coming up atleast.

Sounds like a “Suspension Bowl” could be organized with all the players suspended from their respective bowl games—an innovative angle for the Round Rock Chamber of Commerce.

If they were divided into “Didn’t Make Grades” versus “Violated Unspecified Team Rules” squads, who would you take, in general?

I hope everyone got +1.5 at least in the UNC game. I had pk in my pools but 2 for my play.

I’m getting 7 on Wisky.

Unfortunately short on time and may not get to a full write up on the LaTech play tonight.

They have the proximity edge being just 45 minutes from Ruston in Shreveport.

They have the motivational edges as they haven’t won a bowl game since 1977.

They have a coaching edge ( i think ) with Dooley over Kill. Not completely confident in this because i don’t know a ton about Kill other than he was FCS coach of the year last year or the year before. i like dooley though.

latech has a smothering run defense. NIU has a QB that struggles with both accuracy and reads with receivers who don’t get separation. If NIU cannot run the ball , they cannot move the ball. So i like the matchup on that side of the ball.

On offense , latech has been a different team since coach dooley went to Ross Jenkins over Taylor Bennett to start the idaho game. Since that time the team has shown more balance offensively and they will need it against a decent NIU defense.

This is the case of a team coming into the game playing some of their best football , going up against a team limping into the bowl season playing some of their worst football.

Livas provides latech with a gamechanger in special teams and at wr and i look for latech to get a win here in what should be a low scoring , hard hitting game.

latech pickem for the cash

gl gang

i see the line has moved some since i bet it … but you can lay the 2 points too.

nice win and very well capped. NIU was more game than I thought they would be and it looked like they had the better defense. Their QB was better too but his WR sucked. Livas provided the difference.

I really like NC St tomorrow +7. Don’t really like the alamo bowl.

Livas provides latech with a gamechanger in special teams and at wr and i look for latech to get a win here in what should be a low scoring , hard hitting game.

yabba dabba doo

Dick , I am struggling a lot with the ncstate game. As a backer of the wolfpack side , I find it hard to stomach the amount of value lost in the line. It turns out that this was a game that should have been locked in much earlier. Not sure that it is worth a play without the hook to 7.5.

NC State now at 6.5, sheesh and hooboy

I love Missouri today, why am I wrong?

Thanks for La Tech

szjones

you may not be but there are concerns. Mizz failure to show up in the big12 title game is one , not because it happened but because it is not the first time. Their pass defense is also a concern especially against the system that NW runs with Bacher at QB. NW is finally a little bit healthier getting three guys back today including stud rb Suton. NW schedule was a tad weak this year.

Where are the heads of mizz going to be in this game ?? One minute you have dreams of a national title , and then atleast a big12 title and now you are stuck in a no-name bowl vs a middle of the pack Big Ten school.

Those are the concerns and you rarely feel safe with even a big lead these days with missouri. The backdoor will always be looming.

Another concern is that NW played so well against illinois to end the year. Yes the Illini play a different version of the spread than missouri but it is a spread attack nonetheless.

Can missouri go out and run away with this game ?? Absolutely , but i don’t think it is worth the investment of money.

gl if you play it.

i missed the good numbers on ncstate so i wont be playing that game…

Thanks for the input. I am under no illusions that Missouri will stop anyone. I just don’t think Northwestern will have the defensive speed needed to keep up on the scoreboard.

Thanks

My Missouri line went from 11.5 to 14 in the hour before the game.

missouri sleepwalking so far.

no doubt this is a "want to " game. If missouri wants to they can run away with this game .. they just don’t seem to yet .. maybe a wakeup call at halftime. huge kick return for them.

yeah i got 14 too. that return makes me sick but I guess one had to expect that with maclin. NW looks better though, they should hang on with no more ST breakdowns.