Barking Bowl Bets. Iowa -4 vs. South Carolina

Will Chris Smelley be in uniform? Yes? Couldn’t agree with you more on this one on that fact alone.

South Carolina has been riding the wave of the vaunted SEC reputation all year. I’ve seen them several times and I am fairly certain that Lake Travis would give them trouble.

The two QBs for SC tend to take turns embarrassing mankind against good defenses. Forget passing trees, these guys couldn’t hit all of the routes on the passing shrub. What they lack in overall skills, they compound with a general disdain for poise and simple decision making. If this game goes on an Iowa momentum tilt at all, these guys will sink the SC cause further into oblivion through panic. Spurrier doesn’t help things by working in the every-other-play rotation that has never worked but he seems to relish.

SC gets a lot of credit defensively for some reason, and I can’t figure out why. They didn’t play a lot of offensive juggernauts and the times I viewed them, they didn’t appear especially fast.

I like Shonn Greene just fine. Offensively, it stops there for Iowa. Stanzi is a mediocre passer and their OL can’t pass protect for shit. 10% of their passing plays result in a sack, roughly, so I guess it is a good thing that they don’t attempt to throw the ball much. At least Ferentz will call a conservative gameplan, which will favor an Iowa win.

Defensively, Iowa doesn’t do much in terms of getting after the passer, which is a shame. Pressure would help amplify the two-headed comedy of errors that is Smelley and Garcia. At least Iowa is greedy in the passing game on defense, being in the top 10 in picks. That combo with the SC QBs generally sucking, added in with Greene being a stud, should be a good enough reason for Iowa to cover.

I haven’t bet since the online places dried up (at least the ones I visited), but I agree with your friend on the cover, just not the way of getting there. Motivation as a reason in this ballgame is specious reasoning at best. Iowa might be a top 3 team in the Big 10, but that’s hardly cause for optimism or excitement. They do get a good break in the match-up.

I’m sorry Kyle but I can’t envision a scenario where USC doesn’t prison rape PSU. Am I missing something on this one?

Also have you written up Kansas -9/Minny yet?

USC is no offensive juggernaut this year and PSU has a top 5 defense. They both play in really crappy conferences.

I usually like the underdogs but I am liking all favorites today, which feels strange and dirty.

Miners, you had GT -3.5 as a defintite play on your original thread. What are your thoughts on it now as it moves to 4.5? I just can’t see LSU showing up for this game nor being prepared with all this defensive staff turnover.

I am a believer in numbers and I personally would not have played the game at 4.5 though i obviously think they will cover that number.

With all of the concerns with the defensive coordinators at LSU , I actually thik it is difficult to believe that they are as prepared as some would hope for the option attack.

We have Paul Johnson vs Les Miles. Les Miles has made more coaching errors than complete sentences.

Motivation lies with GT as they are looking forward to the game while LSU is trying to set up for next year.

We have line value because of LSU perception and the SEC > ACC angle that some bettors will use in this one.

LSU is not a disciplined team and that is what it takes to stop the option. Keep in mind that this was the first year of the option for these kids …. they are only getting better at it.

On the other side of the ball , the GT defensive line is a beast and should be able to contain the LSU rushing attack enough to force the Tigers to try and beat them through the air. I don’t trust the LSU QB to get that done without some huge negative plays for the Tigers.

I look for a handy win , but with that said , I can’t say I would lay more than 4 on the game ….so it’s ahrd for me to recommend someone else to do something i would not.

Sorry that I missed the kansas/minny question, The Dude and I will try to get you my penn state thoughts a bit later. It is not a game that I recommend betting.

Great stuff close to jumping. The lack of sacks for Iowa but good interception numbers are because of scheme. They don’t blitz a lot on passing downs which reduces their sack total but does force some college kids to throw into coverage. Also , I did not mean to make it sound as if motivation was the sole key to the bet.

Superior running game. Superior run stopping. Superior trench play. ….. all also come into play as does momentum and injuries.

gl everyone.

I really love the phrase (paraphrased) “lost to academics”.

Great stuff, Kyle and CTJ.

Wow.

Had this one a tad wrong.

well that was nice of GT to show up. LSU QB is 13 of 14 at 10 yds/completion. So much for the shine on Paul Johnson

Wanted to give the concerns with playing USC. There are obviously reasons to like the trojans , including their recent history vs the Big Ten. But there are reasons to be concerned with a USC play as well.

1. Since the end of the regular season , all Penn State has heard is how much beter usc is than they are. All USC has heard is how much better they are than penn state.

2. Too much is being made of the 35-3 score in the early season matchup with ohio state. That game was far more competitive than that. THE OSU was in that game until a later first half interception for td by usc right before halftime deflated the buckeyes. The bucks played that game without Beanie Wells and with Boeckman at QB as well, with Pryor getting very limited snaps.

3. USC struggles to score against decent competition. We talked about the ohio state game already. 28 offensive points in that one. The trojans score just 21 in Corvalis against the beavers. They score just 21 offensive points vs Arizona State. They put in just 17 at Arizona. In the California game , they again just managed 17 points. That is with the defense being as dominant as you could want. That doesn’t mean that USC might not score a non-offensive td but i never count on that. So expecting them to win by Double digits in this game is sketchy at best in my opinion.

4. To add to this problem is that penn state is statistically the best defense that usc will have played this year. The Nittany lions are giving up just 12.4 points per game and never gave up more than 24 in any game. Again , asking a team to win by double digits vs a defense that barely gives up double digits is a tough proposition for my money.

Can USC go out there and dominate and cover ? Hell yes. But they are playing vs one of the best offenses and best defenses they have faced all season long. So that is why i have the tiniest of leans to the penn st side. Terrible game to bet in my opinion unless you wanted to risk going under in a bowl game lined this low , which holds little appeal to me at 42.

those are the concerns with the usc side in my opinion.

I would also be scared when a very high percentage of bets comes in on one side ( in this case usc ) and the line moves from usc being a double digit favorite to a single digit favorite. The big sharp money is on penn state. Sometimes the public wins and the sharps lose. Sometimes the public is right and the sharps are wrong. But in the long run , i would rather be betting with the sharks than with the guppies.

gl whatever you decide … i am not getting in the way of the usc train right now but no way i can lay those kind of points vs that defense with usc season long history of struggling to score against decent opponents ( sans oregon ).

happy new year btw.

Wanted to talk about the final game of 2008 for me betting wise with the 38-3 drubbing put on in chick-fil-a bowl. Obviously, i had this game capped wrong. It is important to take your beatings in gambling. Stand up and admit to yourself when you are wrong , evaluate mistakes and misperceptions, put the game into context and move on.

I was wrong when i thought that lsu would not be motivated for this game and GT would be. Motivation is one of the hardest things to determine in handicapping these bowls but if you can figure it out , it pays huge dividends. GT came out flat and lsu came out guns blazing.

 I was wrong when i thought that lsu would not be disciplined enough to stop the triple option. They were a team that was decent stopping the run all year so i knew there was atleast a chance of this.

Les Miles outcoached Paul Johnson. OK that one is just a fluke. One of the biggest coaching mismatches of the season let alone the bowl season. It happened , like buster douglas taking out mike tyson but i am firm in my belief that paul johnson is a superior coach.

I was wrong about the GT defensive line against the lsu offensive line. Incredible push early in that game for the tigers.

I was wrong about jefferson at qb. Kid was incredible.

So , this game was poorly handicapped. I am only right about 57% of the time lifetime in college football. That means that I am wrong 43% of the time. Being a long term winner means accepting that fact and moving on. No chasing of money , no wearing blinders to the reality of the game.

Here is the boxscore
Team Stat Comparison
    
1st Downs 19 15
3rd down efficiency 5-12 3-15
4th down efficiency 1-2 2-6
Total Yards 324 314
Passing 163 150
Comp-Att 17-27 8-25
Yards per pass 6.0 6.0
Rushing 161 164
Rushing Attempts 35 40
Yards per rush 4.6 4.1
Penalties 6-60 4-40
Turnovers 0 3
Fumbles lost 0 2
Interceptions thrown 0 1
Possession 30:41 29:19

I did a write up on the Georgia/michiganst affair. This was written a while back. So any inaccuries concerning the line of what have you is because of that. The total has gone up from the 54 as expected.

 Finally finished typing the capital one bowl….

Capital One Bowl, Orlando Florida

Georgia Vs Michigan State

Current line : Georgia -7.5

Over/under : 54

Location – Edge Georgia
Obviously this is a proximity advantage for Georgia , who plays a game in Florida every year as a neutral site for the cocktail party. This game is in Orlando , so there is no doubt that Georgia should be well represented. Michigan State will be far less represented in this game and will be playing in SEC country. The travel is of course a hindrance. I think there is at a minimum a slight advantage for georgia here , if not a larger one. It does need to be noted that msu played in the champs bowl last year which was in Orlando as well so that helps with some of logistics issues for msu travel. After talking with huntdog and BAR via PM , It appears that msu is doing a decent job of selling tickets already so I expect some fans there. As I said , at a minimum this is a slight edge for UGA.

Coaching – WASH
It isn’t often that I don’t give either of these coaches a big advantage over their opponent but I have a hard time giving either a significant edge over the other. Richt and Dantonio are two of the better coaches in the game right now in my estimation. I think a person could make an argument for either guy to have a slight edge , but no argument can be made for a significant edge. Both are master motivators and decent X‘s and O‘s guys.

Motivation — Edge Michigan State.
Dantonio is trying to build something in East Lansing and getting to a new years day bowl is certainly a step in the right direction. You really have a team that has over-achieved in a lot of ways with the Spartans. Most prognosticators picked Michigan state to finish 6th to 8th in the big ten this year and they exceeded those expectations and were probably the fourth best team in the conference behind the big 3 of Tosu , pennst , and iowa. They have to be pleased about the bowl bid they got despite the fact they were actually in the running for a share of the bigten title going into the final week of the season. Contrast this with the expectations of georgia who many believed were the favorites to win the SEC and the National championship before the season started. No Championship , no SEC championship , no SEC east championship , no BCS bowl. They are stuck with Michigan state in the capital one bowl. As I mentioned in the coaching section , Richt is a master motivator so I expect georgia to not be as flat as they might with another coach.. Does Georgia look at this as a way to save face on the season ?? Eh. Slight edge to msu in my opinion.

Strength of schedule / conference — huge edge georgia
It isn’t just that Georgia played better teams , it is the context in which they played them. Just a very difficult schedule the way it was set up with snares and traps and sandwiches and everything else they could throw at these guys. For instance , here were their road games this year …south carolina , Arizona state , lsu , Kentucky , florida ( almost a neutral ) and auburn. Damn. They played 9 opponents this year that were ranked at some point in the season,. SEC , even down a bit this year , is tougher overall than the bigten. Michigan state did play some competition ooc in notre dame and cal but if you look at their road schedule you see some down years for the opponents. Most glaring are Michigan and Indiana …. And that is the other thing that bothers me about msu … they had a total of 4 road games this year. They did have two very high quality wins over iowa and Wisconsin but they were the lesser team in both of those games but got fortunate. Huge huge edge here for georgia.

Special Teams -WASH
FG kicking - Blair Walsh does the duties for Georgia now that coutu has gone on to the seahawks. He has been adequate but not great. ,,,, connecting on 14 of 22 kicks this year. He has a big leg and has attempted five kicks of 50 or more yards this year making two of them with a long of 52. So he is 12 of 17 from under 50 yards wich is pretty good. The Spartans use Brett Swenson who has been spectacular all year and who has also been clutch.. Down 24-19 against Wisconsin he nailed a 50 yarder with roughly five mintues to go and then hit a 44 yarder with a few seconds to go to give them the win. He went 3 for 3 in a 16-13 win vs. iowa that was one of the differences in that contested game. He was 2 for 2 with a long of 39 last year in the bowl game in Orlando. This year he was an incredible 20 of 25. Given bowl experience , the fact that Walsh is just a freshman and the fact that swenson has been the better kicker all year … I give an edge to Michigan state in the fg kicking department.

Punting —Both teams sport two of the better punters in the nation . Brian mimbs for georgia averages 43.5 per kick and sophomore aaron bates for Michigan state averages 42.3 per kick. No real advantage here.

Return game —There is a significant edge to Georgia in this regard as they have one of the best return games in all of cfb. The Dawgs average an incredible 16 yards per return this year. The reason is the combination of logan gray and prince miller returning kicks. You may recall Millers big 92 yard punt return by miller in the Alabama game early in the fourth quarter which gave them a very brief glimmer of hope in that game. Michigan state is certainly adequate in the return game as well with otis wiley averaging over 10 a return but the overall advantage here goes clearly to georgia.

Kick blocking —WASH

Time to see how they will move the ball.

When georgia has the ball
Alright georgia has a lot of balance but due to a slew of injuries to the offensive line they have had to throw a lot more than we would have thought with Moreno in the backfield. Moreno has been rushing for 5.89 a carry and for 111.5 yards per game for an offense that generates 153.9 yards per game on the ground.. This puts their rushing game squarely in the average column and is a great example of showing how important the offensive line is to the running game. Saying that Moreno is back , or that spiller and davis are back for Clemson , I think people can get carried away with teams. Now , in the case of georgia the difference is that they lost key linemen to injury instead of graduation so It was less predictable. Still the rushing game is formidable enough and M Stafford at QB can be very effective at times. Quite frankly, the Georgia passing attack is one of the best in the nation at not only in yardage , but in efficiency and completion percentage. What makes this especially impressive to me is the quality of pass defenses that georgia has faced. They absolutely destroy the normal numbers given up by their opponents respective defenses. Georgia averages 280 yards a game at 9.1 per attempt with 24 td and 9 interceptions. To give you an idea of some of the quality pass defenses that Stafford has faced check this out. South carolina ranked 2nd , Tennessee ranked 4th , Vanderbilt ranked 18th , florida ranked 19th , Alabama 21st , auburn 22nd , Kentucky 29th , georgia tech 48th , Arizona state 61st , 82nd lsu and 119th central Michigan. Just incredible. Now some of the pass defense rankings are a result of some anemic passing offenses in the SEC but you get the idea. Georgia overachieves throwing the ball. The balance they offer is the key as most teams start with stopping Moreno as the basis point. Unfortunately when you do that you allow a guy who will be one of the top 3 qb’s taken in the nfl draft ( if not number one ) to throw to some big play WR in A.J. Green and Mohamed Massaquoi. Green had 55 catches for 951 yards. Over 17 yards per reception and 8 td to boot. A huge big play threat. On the other side Massaquoi is also a beast. 57 catches 910 yards and 8 td. Also has huge play potential averaging 15.96 per catch.

An unbelievably potent offense and a big reason why a lot folks thought that Georgia could overcome their schedule and play in a bcs title game. Can MSU stop them ? Probably not. Sparty gave up 210 yards a game through the air in a putrid pass offense conference and georgia is by far the most prolific they will have faced all year. What I find even more telling is the fact that the best pass offenses they faced this year they benefited from circumstances. The highest rated pass offense ( 27th ) that they played was florida atlantic and they played them in conditions that was very difficult to throw in , wet and rainy. The second highest ranked passing offense they played was purdue at 28th. Only they benefited again. They got to face siller instead of Painter at qb for the boilermakers in what was his first start ever on the road. 35th ranked pennst threw for over 400 yards and 5 td with snow on the ground and falling softly to the field at times. 46th ranked notre dame threw for 242 yards on them. 63rd ranked northwestern threw for 283 …… you get the idea… they don’t rate to stop the georgia pass attack.

So lets look at how msu matches up against the georgia rush game.

Michigan state ranks 72nd in the nation in rush defense allowing 147.6 yards per game at 4.25 per carry. Despite the fact that they are ranked worse in rush defense than pass defense , if you put it in proper perspective they are actually better in defending the run. The bigten is a run heavy conference with quality backs like beanie wells , Sutton , Greene ( who would have gotten my vote for heisman ) , sheets , hill and you can throw in the ooc game where they faced J best of CAL as well. So , I think you have to give msu a little bit more credit on their rush defense numbers. However , playing in the SEC , georgia has seen plenty of defenses that rate right there with msu at defending the run and it is hard for me to envision a scenario where msu completely shuts down Moreno. In fact , I am pretty confident that Moreno gets over a hundy here assuming he gets anywhere near his normal workload.
The bottom line is that I can’t figure out how msu stops georgia based on a season of games.

When msu has the ball

We know what this team is all about. Hand it off to ringer and see what happens and mix in a little hoyer to White and Cunningham to keep teams honest. The Spartans really overused Ringer some and the rest between the end of the year until the bowl game should do him well. Ringer is no mystery , third in the nation in raushing at 132.5 yards per game and at 4.3 a carry. ARE YOU READY FOR THEIR BIG PROBLEM ? As a team they average 138.4 . In other words , outside of ringer , you don’t have to worry about anything in the rushing game. They average less than a yard per carry ( 0.66 ) over the 107 carries that ringer is not responsible for. Yes some of that is the result of hoyer sacks, qb sneaks and end of game kneel downs but the reality is that the entire offense revolves getting it to him or faking it to him. Dawgs defense gives up 129.9 yards per game rushing and 3.85 yards per carry. Again , when put into context , these numbers aren’t bad at all .. Just an incredibly tough schedule that they played. There are concerns down the stretch though . Georgia gave up 409 yards rushing to GT and the option in the finale , 124 to auburns less than stellar run game , 226 to Kentucky , 185 to florida and 188 to lsu. So the rush defense was struggling a little bit at the end of the year. Still , the GT attack skews some of game stats for opposing defenses for both passing and rushing yards allowed. I expect ringer to get a big one or two , and have some success but doubt they dominate georgia at the line of scrimmage , especially when richt has a good amount of time to scheme defensively for a pretty straight forward attack.

If Georgia slows down ringer , can Hoyer pick up the slack ? Maybe. Msu is surprisingly balanced. The Spartans average 214 yards a game thru the air and 7.1 yards per attempt. Not bad at all. Most of it is predicated on play action and decent down and distance situations that they obtain from the power running game. Their pass attack is not nearly as effective if they get behind the chains. MSU has thrown two more interceptions than td but they do tend to lean heavy on ringer near the goalline and have only thrown 11 interceptions all year. So Hoyer has been careful with the ball even if not that productive in scoring TD. MSU has a group of fairly talented wideouts but nothing like the secondary of Georgia practices against every day. Georgia gives up 188.4 yards per game thru the air at 6.7 per attempt. The SEC is a run first league though , so one has to keep that in mind …. But there is nothing that makes me think that hoyer goes out there and outperforms Stafford.

I think that msu makes a play here and there and maybe even has a decent drive here and there ….. But I think with time to prepare the msu attack is not difficult for quality defenses to handle.

Now , unlike the other games we have been capping , this one has more of the element of the spread involved. Most of the others that I have capped it is easy to just cap to the winner and that is the side. But for this game , if uga wins they still may not cover at a spread of 7.5. I make the line slightly higher than 7.5 after capping it out.

I had promised myself that I would not lay over a td in the bowl season but upon completion of this game , I do find myself leaning to the favortie.

One problem we have with this game is that it is hard to tell just how good the SEC is this year and LSU and Vanderbilt are the only SEC teams that sees bowl action before 2009 , so we won’t have that information to look at.

One thing that I would suggest for those that like msu in this game……. Look at the over. The total is 54 and I am extremely confident that uga moves the ball up and down the field on sparty. If you believe that msu plays within the spread , you MUST think this game exceeds the total imo.

Strong leans to uga and the over.

Also , I had a typo above.

The usc/pennst total is 45 not 42.

great writeup miner. thanks for the info.

Thanks for the UGA cap. I agree with you although I’m getting 9 points, I still like it up to 10. MSU just can’t take advantage of UGA’s weaknesses. This game reminds me of KU/Minn.

Georgia made it more interesting than it should have been.

Clemson finished the Gator Bowl with a total of two yards rushing.

That’s one yard for “Thunder” and one yard for “Lightning”.

Harper couldn’t pass well enough to get the win, much less cover.

I think they combined for 43 yards or so … Harper taking all those sacks accounted for negative 42 yards rushing.

Unfortunate and mysterious overturn in that game and a lack of review for the great catch out of bounds for a td for NU. Clemson is not good enough to overcome 11 points lost in that manner.

The Fg kicker for Nebraska is pretty damn good. He made everything and the kid for clemson got an extra point distance kick blocked.

Thought Nebraska was more competent offensively , mostly out of the QB position and they did manage the one big run.

Ganz is a nice little player and Castille got a lot more carries than I expected.

The two offensive lines were dominated by the defensive lines.

Nebraska played the better overall game and their backers cashed the ticket.

Was an interesting day in that i thought the officiating was lopsided in every game that i watched. Iowa got every call under the sun in the morning game ( nice to be on the good end ) , nebraska game was one of the worst officiated of the season and probably THE worst of the bowl season, the georgia game had some ponderous calls as did the rose bowl.

If these are crews getting rewarded for the season , it is a bad testament to the state of officiating in college ball right now.

But can’t complain since i was on the good end of it with the hawkeyes and the bad end of it with the tigers. It all evens out in the end.

Discussion on this board has noticed that holding seems to have disappeared as an infraction in Big-12 play—with substantial changes to the nature of the game.

 I can’t recall a holding penalty during the bowls I’ve watched except on the kick/punt return today in the Gator. Have you got any sense as to whether holding is being defined consistently—and at all—across the various conferences?

It has long been not called in the WAC and Conference USA as much as other conferences.

As noted at several different places , the big12 this year was “defining” holding differently.

Outside of the BIG12 i didn’t notice a major difference in the way holding was being interpreted. Of course , I wasn’t looking for it much either , it just stood out watching big12 play and then saw others referring to memos and what not.

Heading into the bowl season , i was discussing with Trips the idea that bowl games involving big12 teams might be good under plays since the offenses won’t be able to hold as they did in conference and the defenses won’t be getting held the way they were in conference.

what do you think about Tech’s motivational edge tomorrow? They could be dissapointed to not be in a BCS bowl. I like Ole Miss getting 5 or more and I think I may just go with under 67 due to the Big 12 holding argument. I wish that cold front would come in sooner with some strong winds.

I have been leaning to the ole miss side since numbers were originally released but the game has been hammered down and it is bad business to take that much the worst of the opening number.

I think my season is over as far as betting is concerned unless the books make a halftime mistake.

In regards to motivation , I think you have to give an edge to Ole Miss but not much of one and the game being played in TTechs home state certainly has to be remembered.

Ole Miss matches up well in the trenches. Snead returns to the state of texas where he will have something to prove. Nutt has had time to follow the oklahoma blueprint on how to slow this red raider offense down. The rebels are more physical.

The thing is that this offense is impossible to duplicate in practice and it is hard to determine from game to game which teams will be able to defend it. ole miss gives up 210 yards a game at 6.6 per pass attempt in a run first , run second conference.

Ole miss is getting 3 sacks a game which ranks them in the top 5 or 6 in that category in the nation and they do it mostly with the big studs on the DL. Peria and Lockett get great penetration. With all that said , Texas has arguably the best DL in the nation and still got nowhere close to Graham Cracker Harrell.

Obviously , FG kicking is a concern for the red raider side of the bet.

Too tough for me to call.

Thanks for all of your input this bowl season miners.

I am probably going to take the Ole Miss getting 5. I hear what you are saying about Texas DL not getting to Tech but I believe that was more due to the Big 12 officiating methods over anything else. Texas got into position to sack Harrell many times only to be stopped by some of the most blatant holding anyone has ever seen not called. Another point about Tech that I brought up before the OU game is their performance on natural grass. I believe their only two games on that surface was against OU and ATM. We know the result of the OU game but they were also losing at halftime to freakin ATM. I have always viewed Tech as probably the most different team home vs away in the country and their playing surface and weird ass stadium atmosphere (esp at night) plays a big part in that. They are built for speed (turf). So basically all the reasons you mentioned above plus the sudden appearance of holding calls and Tech’s struggles on natural grass are pushing me strongly towards Ole Miss +5.

Depending on how much money I have left over after betting a lot of money on the NFL playoff home dogs this weekend, I’m going to play Florida -3 big just because I think they are an easy SU winnner. I’d be scared about laying more than 3 due to OU’s ability to score 4th quarter meaningless TDs and covering via the back door.

That would be it for me this bowl season. Kinda sad that its almost over.

I think Tech giving 4 is a lay up.
Also gonna go big on the Bama side giving 9.5.
I still love the Horns up to 10.

The Vegas boys really know how to set a line.

Going into Jan 2nd play, the favorite had covered 13 times, the underdog covered 14 times.

To dogs won 9 of the 14 outright.

nice job dick. I also cashed a ticket on ole miss today. Trips found a +8 and we pounded it. Thanks trips.

I would not have played at the closing line but getting roughly four points the best of it is worth a bet every single time.

srr50 —By the end of the year the books have usually caught up with most of the teams and it becomes tough to find real value. The conference championship week i did not find a single game worth betting. not one …where as i had weeks with 10 or more plays on other weekends. I think we find some value in the bowls because it matches conferences vs one another and it makes it tougher to set an accurate line and it is tougher for the average bettor to relate what they have seen to the line. The biggest advantage to the player vs the book is always at the beginning of each season. As both the book and the betting public catch up to the informed handicapper , the lines get very tough as the season progresses.

“Also gonna go big on the Bama side giving 9.5.”

You’re only down 23.5 midway through the first quarter…

“To dogs won 9 of the 14 outright.”

This is why I’ve always felt that a good Vegas strategy is “Winners cover.”

Have to keep in mind that two of the favorites that won were dogs at open…. notre dame and louisiana tech. Both opened dogs and closed favorites. So Vegas makes some mistakes now and then too. Luckily we were onto those games before the big moves for the most part.

Utah maybe should be number one team in the nation. Play in a tough conference and if they hold on to beat bama somehow ( still uncerain at time of this writing ) they will have beaten the second best the SEC has to offer in alabama and the second best the pacten had to offer in oregon st. Both of thsoe teams were a win in their final game away from winning their respective conferences. They also scheduled an away game at michigan as well … who knew at time of scheduling how down that program would be at the time they played. Wins over TCU and BYU air force and colorado st as well. A win here would make them 6-0 vs bowl teams.

Just food for thought.

vegas kyle/comeonminers, do you fancy any of the NFL games this weekend?

The holidays have been killing some of my time and i am just now looking at those games, dick. i will let you know if i find a value in my eyes.

The chargers seem like they deserve a look but i don’t like to recommend a side unless i know i am betting it myself.

Do you see anything you like and if so why ?

Well, I am more of a systems and trend bettor than matchups guy (that is why I like your takes). NFL Wild Card home underdogs are 11-1-1 all time (wild card round started in ‘82 i think i read so 26 years). It’s crazy to think that we have 4 of them this weekend when we have seen a playoff home dog once every two years or so. I enjoy the value in taking home underdogs in the NFL every week but I am even moreso in the playoffs. I will probably end up taking all of 4 of them but in order of confidence, I like Mia, Min, SD then Arizona but that changes every hour or so (not the fact that I like them all, just the order). It helps that the public is heavily backing all of the road favorites as well. I don’t like going against Peyton Manning but Rivers has been special as well this year, also I do like betting against rookie QBs. I wasn’t a big believer in Arizona at all but they showed something against Seattle last weekend, mainly effort.

Barring injuries, I expect home teams to do very well this entire postseason.

NFL is an underdog league and home underdogs are always worth a look.

Also , the cardinals will probably go off the favorite or at pickem by kickoff if i had my guess. So if you like them it is probably best to get the bet in sooner rather than later and grab the plus 1 or 1.5 available now.

For whatever reason , i didn’t post a lot of my plays over at cappingthegame for nfl .. only ten .. but results were good on the ones i did…

NFL 8-2
SIDES 7-1
favs 2-1
dogs 5-0
TOTALS 1-1
overs 0-0
unders 1-1

If you see a matchup that coincides with the home playoff dog system, I’d be interested in it to maybe increase the units. But I always assume that the matchups and spreads are pretty dam tight this time of year. Only fading the public would provide value during playoff time.

dick , nothing this weekend qualifies for a unit for me .. the closest being the under in the ravens/phins game.

sorry i couldn’t be of much help and gl with your home doggies.

nice 2-0 so far and both games favored the home team. No way SD should have needed OT to beat the Colts. I expect 1-1 tomorrow so I wouldn’t bother on taking both but I favor Minny more than Miami tomorrow.

Miami and the under to the house tomorrow.

I lean Philly in the other game. Jackson is the anti cover.

Yeah I hate hate hate hate betting on Tavaris Jackson but we have a 3-4-1 road team laying 3 points in the playoffs to a 6-2 home team that can run the ball and play great defense. If it wasn’t for Jackson, this would be an enormous play for me.

I have always really liked Miami and will consider the under as well. I have been terrible with the totals this year however.

Also Trips, thanks for getting Vegas Kyle involved this bowl season. I’ve enjoyed his pieces as well as being one of the 4 guys that followed your’s throughout the season. You guys must do research together because it is hard to tell your thought processes apart. Or you steal his shit but whatever.

Another thanks for the under tip. minny up to 3.5

I know i said in the opening bowl thread that if i had to , i would bet florida -3 but this line is starting to get out of hand and if it hits 6.5 , i will buy to the 7 and take my chances on the sooners. They should have plenty of fans that drive their homes out to see this one. Line is just getting way out of hand.

Here were my originial recommendations with results

Definite Plays
Wake forest -2.5 winner
Tcu — best bet -2.5 two unit best bet. loser
Southern miss +5 winner
Notre dame +1 ( up to -2 ) winner
Louisiana tech +1 winner
Nevada -1.5 loser
Georgia tech -3.5 loser
Iowa -3 two unit best bet winner
Clemson -2.5 loser
Ole miss +4.5 winner

Possible plays and Leans
Wisconsin +5.5 loser
Ncstate +7.5 winner
Georgia -7.5 winner
Tulsa +2.5 winner

Pools ATS
Colorado state +3 winner
Memphis +11.5 loser
Byu +3.5 loser
Florida atlantic +7 winner
North carolina +1 loser ( depending on your number)
Miami florida +8 winner
Northwestern +12 winner
Rice -2.5 winner
Pitt +2.5 loser
Boston college -3.5 loser
Minnesota +9.5 loser
Uconn -5 winner
Texas -8 loser

Least Favorites/Gun to my Head
Penn st +9.5 loser
Utah +10 winner
Cincy -2.5 loser
Kentucky +3 winner
Florida -3 line move

BEST MONEYLINE DOGS
Notre dame closed favorite ( uhhuh told ya )
Southern Miss nice winner
Louisiana tech closed favorite ( uhhuh told ya )
Ole miss nice winner
Wisconsin loser
NC State wilson injury blew chance loser
Tulsa uh huh told ya

If you need a double digit longshot with a chance to win
Memphis —sorry.

also had oregon and houston which i mentioned in other threads but forgot in this one somehow.

So had you followed my example

6-4 on definite plays (1-1 on the two stars-tcu ugh)
3-1 on possible plays
6-7 on the pool plays
2-2 on least favorites
would have made a small fortune on the moneyline dogs.
0-1 on the dd moneyline dog
2-0 on the two answered with oregon and houston

overall non moneyline bets were 19-14. 57.5% which is about normal for my best stuff not for all games so i did better than normal as far as total predictions.

hope i helped some of you to make money this bowl season. Was sort of proud of my writeups on here since the games i wrote about pretty much followed the blueprints.

gl tonight in the championship games with whatever you play.

As I mentioned above , I will be buying to the plys 7 if it ever appears and if not will be just watching and hoping for a good game.