Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: This Week In GIFs

NFL Expansion And Relocation Sites

According to the mathematical modeling (using fairly reasonable, common-sense data) found in Location Model in the National Football League: Predicting Optimal Expansion and Relocation Sites the most likely sites for a new NFL franchise or relocation of an existing NFL franchise are, in order of predicted probability:

Los Angeles 100%

First methodology failure apparent: did not factor USC as an existing professional franchise.

Putting a NFL franchise in the Greater Los Angeles Strip Mall Contiguousness is a no-brainer. This hole in the NFL's portfolio gapes like an awed Okie's jaw when confronted by a van with a kickass desert mural on it. The real question is whether Angelenos care enough to support a franchise. After all, the NFL and the team-focused hysteria it engenders detracts from the Angeleno's greatest and most overwhelming obssession: themselves.

Namaste NFL - I salute the divine in you. Just how is it that you propose I do my hatha yoga and fennel seed colon cleanse in time to make it to the stadium through four hours of traffic driving nine miles in my leased Mercedes? We need to process this so that I can reach resolution and closure. I feel like you're not owning this and that I'm being minimized as a sentient spirit-being. Also, I'll blow you for $1,000.

If I were the owner of the LA franchise, I would have bouncers select entry into my stadium from a milling crowd behind velvet ropes based on dress, hotness, celebrity, and level of feigned indifference. The cover charge is the price of the ticket. Creating a certain level of contempt and exclusivity for your customer is the only way to win a Southern Californian's heart.

San Antonio 56%

Community spirit? Check. Ability to tap into crucial fat Mexican girl wearing Spurs jersey apparel market? Check. Places vital third franchise in key population corridor of nation's second most populous state? Check. Economy? Umm...check-ish.

You're not getting season ticket holders past New Braunfels. Could this work with the right owner? The answers is yes, and, anticipating your follow-up - Mark Cuban.

Salt Lake City 51%

I could see this. Strong civic spirit, pro-business environment, wildly growing population, the ability to have Raider fans excommunicated. The potential for conflict between general pro-business LDS interests and the LDS oxes that could gored at BYU and Utah concerned about a NFL team supplanting their college sports community primacy could lead to a power struggle straight out of Big Love. Compound drive-bys, boiiii!

Would a black NFL player prefer to play for the Salt Lake City Celestials or the Buffalo Bills? Tough one. I want all of you to pose that question to the friendly black IT guy at work. Unless you are that guy, in which case, what's up with me not being able to download Itunes apps through the company server?

Sacramento 43%

Could they get a new franchise? Absolutely not. Could they get the Raiders one day? Of course. Al Davis is constantly scouting out any community with sewage infrastructure, reeking of desperation, and a willingness to endure pre-game tailgates that make a San Quentin jailyard seem tensionless.

Boy golly - who'd have thought the Raiders would move to Dubuque! Hey, Dad - let's move over here near the bean dip - the Southern Mexicans are making a movie on the Aryans. Give me those packs of smokes, I need to parlay with the Jamaicans so they don't rape you.

I predict that there is a 31% chance that Al Davis moves the Raiders to Knoxville just to harsh Lane Kiffin's world.

Columbus 39%

They can't land a new franchise. But if a bleak Rust Belt team housed in a city with overpensioned whiny auto-workers wants to move to a slightly less Rusty city, then this is fine. But I don't see the logic. It's like dropping Roseanne Barr for Rosie O' Donnell.

The MOST VULNERABLE existing markets are:

Buffalo

Ladies and Gentlemen....YOUR Los Angeles Bills!

Strikes against Buffalo include arguably the least attractive women in the continental United States, a destitute blue-collar economy, bleak and brutal cold, no TV appeal, and - most damaging of all - Chris Berman, Bills superfan.

New Orleans

Table 5 tells the tale:

Table 5: Predicted Probability of a Team in New Orleans with Depopulation
PERCENT POPULATION REDUCTION PREDICTED PROBABILITY
10 % 0.74
20 0.59
25 0.51
30 0.43

As New Orleans contracts, so too does it appeal as a major sports venue.
Most Louisianans grow up with the notion that money is best inherited or stolen and their economy reflects that. This is an economic infrastructure built on natural gas, tourism, and bail bonds. Once the collective memory of Katrina diminishes, Dem Saints will hoof it Modell-style. Confused natives will expose their breasts and throw beads at the parade of trucks passing by...

Jacksonville

How do they have a franchise? Seriously. Did they find Tagliabue in bed with a dead girl or a live boy? I want to know how this happened.

The most obvious omission from all of this is Toronto. It's a big market, but I can't comment knowledgeably enough about the Canadian passion for football of the four down, Doug Flutie-isn't-a-star variety; but I doubt anything could rival their love for the Maple Leafs and Alan Thicke.

What do you think?

Comment 37 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

More from Barking Carnival

To Catch a Predator

Aug 2009 by Scipio Tex - 30 comments

Comments

Display:

Did they find Tagliabue in bed with a dead girl or a live boy?

Genius!!!

(Yes, that was three exclamation points.)

by The General on Mar 10, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions  

Santa Clara 49ers? Granted it is 30 mile move. We Santa Clarans are mighty ambivalent about it.

by AeroHorn on Mar 10, 2009 3:26 PM CDT reply actions  

General -

It may be genius, but it’s Edwin Washington Edwards’, former Louisiana governor, not Scipio’s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_Edwards

by Nero on Mar 10, 2009 3:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Edwin Edwards also spawned the campaign slogan:
 
Vote For The Crook, It’s Important
 
…when David Duke ran against him.

by Scipio Tex on Mar 10, 2009 3:40 PM CDT reply actions  

Paul Tagmeaboy? Sounds guilty.

As long as the franchise is willing to pay 10% of gate receipts to the LDS, Salt Lake City is a viable option.

The cheerleaders can wear long-sleeved ruffled Victorian shirts with heavy quilted skirts that reach their ankles. And the Salt Lake City Golden Tablets will win their first Super Bowl the year Warren Jeffs is released from prison in 2026, when he will promptly be named head coach and run the table. God’s table. Joseph Smith told me so in a vision.

by Vasherized on Mar 10, 2009 3:55 PM CDT reply actions  

“like an awed Okie’s jaw when confronted by a van with a kickass desert mural on it”.

F-ing classic.

by ATXHornsFan on Mar 10, 2009 3:59 PM CDT reply actions  

The 49ers are already in Santa Clara for their offices, and I believe their practices, so it would be a good move. I also think the A’s are building a stadium in Milpitas, which would have been much closer when I lived in Mountain View.

LA Bills would be allsome.

by uthookem on Mar 10, 2009 4:02 PM CDT reply actions  

LA is several years away considering Orange County last year voted down a measure denying bonds be sold to raise money for a new stadium.

LA County cannot leverage the Rose Bowl or the Coluseum (sp?) as per the NFL. So where the hell you gonna put a team/stadium?

The Inland Empire you say? San’Berdino voters denied a bond issue similar to the OC’s some ten years ago and every public-led initiative has been DOA since then…

When the NFL says you can’t field a team at the home fields of USCLA, then what then?! They did guarantee the LA City Council and LA County Board of Governors one of two new expansion franchises ONLY if voters approve of a NEW venue in LA or Orange Counties…

San Antonio is ready NOW, and will get first dibs. period.

by Scagnetti on Mar 10, 2009 4:30 PM CDT reply actions  

When do we get an NFL team back in our city?

thanks,
houston

by Mojo on Mar 10, 2009 4:32 PM CDT reply actions  

Funny that you mention economic barriers for the potential Columbus and San Antonio franchises, but not at all with the California franchises.

Going by current trends, the LA economy will soon be made up solely of the USC football team, a few movie moguls and a shit-load of janitors and nannies and waiters and pr0n starlets.

Who run New Bartertown? Pete “Master Ab Blaster” Carroll, bitches.

by CrazyJoeDavola on Mar 10, 2009 4:42 PM CDT reply actions  

“The cheerleaders can wear long-sleeved ruffled Victorian shirts with heavy quilted skirts that reach their ankles.”

The stench is only trumped by the Dr J afro-esque grooming issues..

by Harry Dean Stanton on Mar 10, 2009 4:45 PM CDT reply actions  

San Antonio screwed themselves out of a team when they decided to build a stadium too small to support an NFL team and do it on toxic soil.

When you get land that cheap, might want to have a survey done.

Seriously, Alamo Dome is too big to be a useful concert arena and too small for a pro team. Someone screwed the pooch on that one.

by LosHorn on Mar 10, 2009 4:58 PM CDT reply actions  

Jerry Jones would have a complete meltdown if San Antonio tried to get a team. Which is perhaps the best reason to root for such an occurrence. They should call them the Alamos.

by anonymous on Mar 10, 2009 5:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Scip – as far as the Toronto idea goes, it is indeed a huge market but as a Canadian myself I can attest to the fact that as you suggest there is barely enough interest in football – of either the three or four down varieties – to sustain an NFL team; hell, even the CFL has been on life support for the past 50 years or so.

I was stuck in Toronto during bowl season, and couldn’t believe that the local version of Sportscenter (aka “Sportscentre”) contains 1hour 55minutes of hockey coverage and 5 minutes of “other sports,” evenly divided between bowling, darts, and curling.

by Emmett Fitzhume on Mar 10, 2009 6:50 PM CDT reply actions  

Probably is not too much true growth left for the NFL. If college football can get its act together, it will produce a much better product. Actually, it already is better and more exciting than the NFL, and it is better from a business standpoint as well. Using the idealism of academics and amateurism as a rational, you do not have to pay college players, or at least you do not have to pay them anyway near their market value. What a perfect business model. I am sure this fact, which is known as freebie money, is not lost to all the brilliant MBA’s out there looking for a way to hit the jackpot. Someone, somewhere out there is making killer moula off of college football. That is for certain.

by Saggy Aggie on Mar 10, 2009 7:19 PM CDT reply actions  

If Santonia gets a franchise it’ll make me so mad I’ll tear off my new face and replace my veneers with some rusty bolts, which would have me looking pretty much like I used to. I’ll then assemble a group of pipe-swingin’ Leon Letts, smoke some crack, and drive to Santonia with the head of Roger Goodell impaled on my hood ornament. And when I’m done those meskins down there’ll think Davy Crockett and David Bowie was amateurs..
(Steven says Crockett and Bowie lost. Don’t matter, I won’t)..

by Jerry Jones on Mar 10, 2009 7:25 PM CDT reply actions  

I always love posts of this nature. Maybe I’ll write a “SuperConference” post soon. It works for some folks, although others are either too dismissive or too serious about it.

Anyway, the NFL’s SLC notion has one major flaw – games are played on Sunday.

I am sure your work had you there plenty, but I’ll give my thoughts and experiences from being a regular there.

I spend a few days every other month, or more depending upon business campaigns, in SLC. I have become good friends with a few business partners there and we’ve had a lot of success between our businesses, the one I left and now the new one I’ve started, and we usually wind up talking sports. The mormons, while not Christians and bound for hell, are good folks and good business folks. Yes, I generalize with impunity.

In my discussions with these cats, the question of baseball and football majors always comes up. They insist that the city would not support a NFL franchise because of gameday, even though they wish they could get one to land there. Given what I’ve seen in their commitments, I’d be obliged to buy it. In regard to baseball, they basically say they have trouble supporting the Triple A Angels franchise located there.

I think it is an amazing city, with a lot of enjoyable folks there, both the mormon jihadists and the “Hey, I don’t know how I got here, but I am not a mormon” crowd. It is beautiful, pro-business (as you mentioned), and there is a lot of stuff going on there. I was shocked when I started visiting there regularly a few years back. No way I would live there, and no way an NFL team shows up there, but it is a great business trip inside the motherland of the US.

Beyond the ones you mentioned:

I am guessing Las Vegas is a “no” for obvious reasons pertaining to gambling?

Is Portland too small? I have never been there, although I would like to go.

I guess Memphis is too close to Nashville?

I think an experiment in Birgmingham would prove to be an interesting play, but I am often wrong.

by CloseToJumping on Mar 10, 2009 10:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Question -

Is it harder for the NFL to establish a team in a good market with not much football interest (toronto), or in a market with a lot of football interest, but allegiances already firmly in place (san antonio loves cowboys, Minneapolis loves green bay)?

I think you just have to look at population centers.

Los Angeles
Las Vegas
Toronto
San Antonio
Portland
Minneapolis
Oklahoma City

Would Okies even pay attention to pro football?

I think the absolute best option the NFL has outsite of LA is Mexico. Either Monterrey or Mexico City. But then you have the San Antonio problem again. Mexicans love the Dallas Cowboys.

by Nero on Mar 10, 2009 11:12 PM CDT reply actions  

Nero—

Two problems with your takes.

1) Minneapolis has a team. They’ve played and lost in the Super Bowl roughly 4 times.

2) Mexico is a shithole toilet on the brink of civil war. Until the drug war is won – basically at the point in which Christ returns, or the dinosaurs do, or Darwin does, that idea is rightly fucked. Or, I guess, when we legalize drugs and turn them into a business sector, Mexico ain’t fixing itself.

by CloseToJumping on Mar 10, 2009 11:26 PM CDT reply actions  

CTJ, when the shit REALLY goes down, Salt Lake City will be as good a place as any to be on the continent.

Mormons have been stockpiling food and ammo for years and years. They are very enterprising folks.

Of course, if said shit going down is due to the Yellowstone Supervolcano, then SLC probably isn’t the best place to be.

Nero, I can’t imagine the NFL wanting to start a professional football team in Mexico right now. The entire team and front office would be kidnapped and held for ransom within 15 minutes of the franchise announcement.

by CrazyJoeDavola on Mar 10, 2009 11:28 PM CDT reply actions  

I was living in San Antonio when Los Santos (never could get that cheer to catch on) played a few games there. The AlamoDome may not seat enough for a pro football franchise, but it’s a great place to see a game – there’s really not a bad seat in the stadium. The San Antonians were pretty pumped about the team, too, until they realized “fuck, they’re the Saints.”

I think the city could support a team there and embrace it, although it would likely play third fiddle behind the Spurs and the Dallas Cowboys. If there was some stud, record-setting QB named Hernandez from Alamo Heights and the SA franchise signed him, every middle aged latina in Bexar County would line up to dry hump him like it was Sangria Saturday at Limelight.

by ponderos on Mar 10, 2009 11:54 PM CDT reply actions  

“Mexico ain’t fixing itself.”
Mr. CloseToJumping is absolutely right. Now if you all would grant me a little latitude..
Rather than legalize drugs, I propose seizing all firearms in the state of Texas and redistributing said firearms amongst the existing Mexican drug cartels. This would not only aid young Mexican males in their quest to “earn” a living, but would also raise their self esteem exponentially.
Anyway, It’s just a thought…
that I’ll try my best to see through..

by Obama on Mar 11, 2009 12:03 AM CDT reply actions  

Is Portland too small? I have never been there, although I would like to go.

Paul Allen owns the Seahawks and Trail Blazers. Fans from Portland have always liked the Seahawks. Now that they have kidnapped Kevin Durant and the Sonics and moved them to Indian Territory, Vulcan is hopeful Sea/Tac will embrace the Blazers. They hope to have a nice little Pac NW corridor thing going there. Interesting markets. Both very passionate, I think.

by Sailor Ripley on Mar 11, 2009 12:05 AM CDT reply actions  

Portland’s about the size of Austin, yes? Was out there a couple of years ago, gorgeous part of the country. The streets in Portland are screwed up like Austin, too, thanks to the whole river confluence thing going on.

by ponderos on Mar 11, 2009 12:22 AM CDT reply actions  

Portland’s a breathtakingly beautiful place … from late spring through early fall. It’s extraordinarily clean and green, cool and dry. Even the significant poverty-stricken areas are picturesque.

Starting around mid-October and then through, oh, mid-April, it’s pretty much Seattle’s sad little brother: Gray and cold. You don’t get the benefit of the mountain views because everything’s covered in clouds.

But it’s a very clean, nice place. Aggressively “progressive”, which makes it a lovely place to visit, and probably a pain in the ass to live in. The people are generally friendly if reserved. Compared to cities in Texas, it’s incredibly non-diverse: Thoroughly white, with the only noticeable ethnic groups being Asians and Native Americans.

No sales tax, but high property taxes, which is why a lot of people live in Vancouver, WA, across the Columbia, where there’s a high sales tax and low property taxes.

Oregon, by the way, requires that gas stations have attendants. I didn’t know this the first time I visited, when I stopped at a “convenience” store and got out to fill up my rental’s tank … which caused the attendant to start yelling at me. That was a strange moment.

by CrazyJoeDavola on Mar 11, 2009 3:52 AM CDT reply actions  

San Antonians I suspect would gladly give up the Cowboys for a team of their own.

Problem is that the AlamoDome sucks in ways beyond seating capacity (which would put it in the bottom quarter of the league but isn’t prohibitive).

The dome was half-assed in every possible way.

by Hookah on Mar 11, 2009 5:50 AM CDT reply actions  

Scagnetti – What about the City of Industry deal? Isn’t that pretty much all clear at this point?

by Minnesotahorn on Mar 11, 2009 8:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Do they exist?

by black it guys on Mar 11, 2009 9:33 AM CDT reply actions  

Wow, don’t know how I forgot about the Vikings. I do promise I wasn’t born yesterday, although there isn’t much evidence to the contrary in my posting.

by Nero on Mar 11, 2009 10:08 AM CDT reply actions  

I don’t enough about the COI deal. I’ve been on sabbatical in the Midwest since November. But it was nothin I’d heard about until now. COI I don’t think would be attractive to Scips targeted market tho. COI is ugly and faraway. Me no likey. Course I ain’t gonna live there no more so I don’t rightly care neither…

by Scagnetti on Mar 11, 2009 1:28 PM CDT reply actions  

I don’t see San Antonians calling Mark Cuban one of our own, even if it did bring an NFL franchise to town. That douchebag is on the top of most our “1st guy we’d kick in the nuts” lists.

by tummer on Mar 11, 2009 1:42 PM CDT reply actions  

What’s the chance of Norman getting a pro team?…oh…wait…they already have one, don’t they?

by coolhorn on Mar 11, 2009 4:11 PM CDT reply actions  

Move Jacksonville to Orlando. Affluent fan base and growing city. Won’t mess up team alignments.
They could even incorporate a stadium into the Wide World of Sports Complex.

by Buddy Garrity on Mar 12, 2009 12:20 PM CDT reply actions  

If you agree COlts are going to lose become a fan of FB page Colts Will Lose Super Bowl 2010!

by Earle Othoudt on Jan 31, 2010 10:30 PM CST reply actions  

The best dog groomer in Jacksonville is at Love On A Leash! They have affordable pricing to go along with the caring groomers, and were also very patient and loving towards my dog.

by Dog on Jul 6, 2011 12:06 PM CDT reply actions  

I am not sure where you’re getting your information, but good topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more. Thanks for great info I was looking for this information for my mission.

by Stuart Languirand on Sep 2, 2011 2:46 PM CDT reply actions  

hey there and thank you to your information ? I’ve certainly picked up anything new from right here. I did however experience some technical points using this website, since I skilled to reload the site lots of instances prior to I may just get it to load properly. I were pondering if your web host is OK? Now not that I’m complaining, however slow loading instances occasions will often have an effect on your placement in google and can damage your quality ranking if ads and marketing with Adwords. Anyway I’m including this RSS to my email and can look out for a lot extra of your respective fascinating content. Ensure that you replace this again very soon..

by orgone on Oct 25, 2011 3:23 AM CDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

An SB Nation blog mostly about the Texas Longhorns.

Managers

Archer_290_small Scipio Tex

Bc_logo_257x257_small Sailor Ripley

Editors

Nobis_small nobis60

Link2_small BrickHorn

Propeller_helmet_small Huck L Berry

Picture_016_small srr50

Boyd_small Vasherized

Justified-olyphant_small jc25

Billlittle0_small Fake Ken Tremendous

Authors

Williams_ranger_dugout_small WWMcClyde

Jonathan_tjarks_small tjarks

Small ColoradoAg

Long_illustrated_beard_small LonghornScott

Small Nickel Rover

Small John Kocurek

Thumbnail_small Drew Kelson

Barker Emeritus

Tn_homeimage7_small Parlin

220px-henry_james_by_john_singer_sargent_cleaned_small HenryJames

Small Doperbo