NCAA Bracket Analysis

Using my college basketball ratings, I ran an analysis on the NCAA tournament. I only used the power and standard deviation numbers, not the ones that account for wins and losses, so teams that make a habit of winning close games will not be adjusted in this run. This is the first time I've run such a look at the tourney, and the extent to which favorites are favored surprised me somewhat, but we'll have to see how it goes. First things first, here's the table (HTML Gods willing it will look decent):

Reg Team 1R 2R S16 E8 F4 NC Title
M
I
D
W
E
S
T
Louisville 100.00% 99.84% 87.27% 64.51% 40.42% 21.20% 9.66%
Alabama St. 40.75% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Morehead St. 59.25% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ohio St. 100.00% 78.00% 11.73% 4.20% 1.03% 0.14% 0.02%
Siena 100.00% 22.00% 1.00% 0.14% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Utah 100.00% 54.85% 20.42% 4.70% 1.34% 0.23% 0.03%
Arizona 100.00% 45.15% 15.20% 3.13% 0.80% 0.12% 0.02%
Wake Forest 100.00% 92.19% 63.10% 23.25% 10.29% 3.33% 0.90%
Cleveland St. 100.00% 7.81% 1.29% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
West Virginia 100.00% 93.98% 52.60% 34.62% 17.95% 8.04% 3.08%
Dayton 100.00% 6.02% 0.60% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Kansas 100.00% 93.65% 46.30% 29.00% 14.12% 5.84% 2.06%
North Dakota St. 100.00% 6.35% 0.50% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Boston College 100.00% 29.16% 6.56% 1.00% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00%
Southern Cal 100.00% 70.84% 26.00% 7.02% 1.98% 0.37% 0.06%
Michigan St. 100.00% 98.06% 67.36% 28.22% 11.89% 4.10% 1.19%
Robert Morris 100.00% 1.94% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
W
E
S
T
Connecticut 100.00% 99.99% 80.10% 58.75% 30.71% 18.40% 8.30%
Chattanooga 100.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BYU 100.00% 79.82% 18.85% 8.84% 2.54% 0.93% 0.22%
Texas A&M 100.00% 20.18% 1.06% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Purdue 100.00% 93.89% 49.68% 16.04% 5.06% 1.99% 0.52%
Northern Iowa 100.00% 6.11% 0.53% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington 100.00% 85.66% 47.00% 15.95% 5.27% 2.17% 0.59%
Mississippi St. 100.00% 14.34% 2.79% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Marquette 100.00% 78.60% 26.01% 6.95% 2.24% 0.79% 0.18%
Utah St. 100.00% 21.40% 2.60% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Missouri 100.00% 96.66% 71.05% 32.75% 17.47% 9.48% 3.91%
Cornell 100.00% 3.34% 0.34% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
California 100.00% 66.01% 9.65% 2.88% 0.68% 0.19% 0.03%
Maryland 100.00% 33.99% 2.95% 0.58% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
Memphis 100.00% 99.30% 87.33% 56.64% 35.89% 22.63% 11.12%
Cal St.-Northridge 100.00% 0.70% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
E
A
S
T
Pittsburgh 100.00% 99.69% 86.37% 77.60% 46.58% 23.73% 13.95%
East Tennessee St. 100.00% 0.31% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Oklahoma St. 100.00% 49.47% 5.74% 3.13% 0.66% 0.11% 0.02%
Tennessee 100.00% 50.53% 7.87% 4.28% 1.04% 0.21% 0.05%
Florida St. 100.00% 42.94% 16.65% 1.69% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00%
Wisconsin 100.00% 57.06% 25.84% 3.41% 0.58% 0.08% 0.01%
Xavier 100.00% 94.85% 57.11% 9.88% 2.16% 0.38% 0.08%
Portland St. 100.00% 5.15% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
UCLA 100.00% 94.94% 65.44% 32.97% 16.28% 6.98% 3.45%
Virginia Commonwealth 100.00% 5.06% 0.51% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Villanova 100.00% 99.53% 34.05% 10.96% 3.37% 0.88% 0.27%
American 100.00% 0.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Texas 100.00% 65.28% 12.61% 3.74% 0.89% 0.18% 0.04%
Minnesota 100.00% 34.72% 4.13% 0.79% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
Duke 100.00% 99.93% 83.27% 51.50% 28.10% 13.37% 7.30%
Binghamton 100.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
S
O
U
T
H
North Carolina 100.00% 99.96% 93.75% 69.73% 56.32% 37.78% 26.17%
Radford 100.00% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
LSU 100.00% 60.12% 4.97% 1.17% 0.32% 0.05% 0.01%
Butler 100.00% 39.88% 1.28% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Illinois 100.00% 91.14% 26.01% 4.26% 1.63% 0.38% 0.10%
Western Kentucky 100.00% 8.86% 0.34% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gonzaga 100.00% 98.05% 73.43% 24.65% 15.54% 7.17% 3.52%
Akron 100.00% 1.95% 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Arizona St. 100.00% 86.50% 44.05% 22.99% 6.35% 2.17% 0.81%
Temple 100.00% 13.50% 1.79% 0.24% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Syracuse 100.00% 98.33% 54.09% 28.20% 7.49% 2.49% 0.90%
Stephen F. Austin 100.00% 1.67% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Clemson 100.00% 72.06% 30.46% 13.70% 3.23% 0.95% 0.30%
Michigan 100.00% 27.94% 5.45% 1.27% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
Oklahoma 100.00% 99.86% 64.09% 33.60% 8.96% 3.02% 1.12%
Morgan St. 100.00% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

As expected, North Carolina is the favorite heading in and is expected to win the tournament a quarter of the time. That they are nearly twice as likely to win as the next most likely team, Pittsburgh, was very surprising to me.

And, of course, the draw affects a team's outlook. Louisville is 6th in the power ratings but the #1 seed moves them to 4th most likely to win the tournament. Pittsburgh is calculated as the most likely team to reach the regional final as the other half of their 8-team subregion is weaker than North Carolina's (mostly due to the Zags being in the South).

The good news for Texas fans is that the odds of the Longhorns winning the tournament are roughly the same as the odds of a PGA tour golfer making a hole-in-one on any given Par 3 hole. So it could happen.

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