College Football: Breakout Teams in 2009

Great mention of Nevada’s Pistol offense. A variant of the spread with the one RB lined-up 8-yards deep directly behind the QB in the shotgun. Opens up so many possibilities in both the run and pass game. I still curious why I haven’t seen an imitation of this offense yet. Kaepernick is fun to watch.

While I concur with your comments re: Weiss, when I look at Notre Dame’s schedule, I can’t help but think that 10-3 is a worst case scenario for the loathsome Irish.

Also agree that Arkansas will be much improved.

I think that Cal and Va.Tech are candidates to crash the BCS party.

I think Cincy repeats in the Big Least conference (yuck).

Disagree on UNC. I think the hit to the skill positions (WR in particular) prevents them from making any real noise in 2009, though I like their direction for post-2009.

Thanks for your thoughts.
 
I really like the Pistol. Obviously, it places a burden on your QB to run and throw equally well, but it’s a handful to defend.
 
I actually believe Cincy takes a big step down, as I detail in my second piece.
 
We’re on the same page with respect to the Irish. Forgiving schedule, legit offense.
 
I find the ACC hard to get a grasp of – it’s shaping up as another year of parity there. If anyone breaks out, I favor UNC or Va Tech.

Greg Davis would be a dipshit not to take a look at the Pistol. I’ll leave it up to everyone else to not the logical next step there. Kaepernick is definitely fun to watch, one of the most exciting quarterbacks most people don’t know about, maybe the most exciting. Their running back from 2007, Luke Lippincott, will be back after a medical redshirt, so the backfield will be deep.

Will DeAndre Brown be ready when the season starts? He didn’t quite Tyrone Prothro his leg, but he had a pretty nasty-looking break. Big-time talent, though if he gets healthy.

Robert Griffin is downright scary. He will give OU and Texas all they can handle before he leaves Waco. Will it result in a w? That’s definitely up for debate with what Briles is doing up there.

This post is a breath of fresh air in the off-season.

I would ask how the preseason mags manage to write nothing of real interest, but that would just be stupid.

I can’t figure out why the pistol is so hard to defend against.

Don’t the linebackers just need to key in on the OG?

How much of a dive does OU take without an experienced OL? Does that put their National Championship hopes on hold (pun intended)?

According to your analysis, the losses at WR don’t matter as
much.

Great write-up. I agreed with what feels like all of it. I’ve been talking up Notre Dame to anyone that will listen and the response is almost homogenous that I am an idiot. For bringing it up, as opposed to the general “you’re an idiot” which is tougher for me to counter.

I’ve read a lot of all of the magazines but have not even bothered looking at the write-ups on Southern Miss. I didn’t realize they had so much coming back and I don’t remember seeing them last year.

To whoever mentioned not seeing the Pistol emulated, I know that it has been incorporated into the LSU offense, as I remember seeing them run it with degree of regularity last year. I know I’ve seen others doing it too, just don’t remember who they were. I wish Davis would incoporate it, but he’ll probably wait 4 more years to do it and then get credit for being “innovative” when he does it.

Here’s one for you – If Washington goes 4-8 or 5-7 after 0-12 last year, is that a breakout season? If Locker stays healthy, I could see them maybe pulling that off with some breaks.

I am not sure I see any way our OOC schedule hurts us this year outside of a one-loss logjam for a spot in the MNC game or another ridiculous 3-way divisional tie. No matter what we would likely get a BCS bid with one-loss. If we lose two the season would be an enormous disappointment and unless that still somehow garnered us a spot in the MNC game, I would probably care less about our bowl game.

You may care less…but you’ll still be watching.

Been a Cal fan for a few years, so obviously I’m hoping that Cal does break through. Though the team looks good on paper, the Bears have a frustrating tendency to tank when expectations are high. If they are ever going to beat the Trojans again this is the year, but Tedford always plays them not to lose. This is not the way for a less-talented club to beat USC.

It will certainly help if Riley stops randomly hurling passes into the stands.

I agree that Notre Dame should be good next season. It is critical to their success though that Clausen makes strides to being a better QB. Clausen played really well in the bowl game, but his development went backwards at times last season.

I like UNC. Davis finally should have all the pieces in place. I am not sold on the Baylor hype just yet, unless 6-6 defines a breakout year. ND should win 10.

it’s kinda funny to see a Nevada Wolfpack love session break out on a burnt orange site. They’re really fun to watch and Kaepernick is a real talent. I would LOVE to see them knock off ND in the opener. That alone might sink Weis.

ND—I can’t disagree with the BCS predictions, but ONLY because their schedule is ridiculous. They may play in a BCS bowl and not really be a top 30 team.

UT’s OOC—-

Ricky- I am not sure I see any way our OOC schedule hurts us this year outside of a one-loss logjam for a spot in the MNC game or another ridiculous 3-way divisional tie.
-—————————————————————

That may very well happen. How? You play Okie State in Stillwater, we play them in Norman. They’re not going to win in Norman but are capable of beating you in Stillwater. Fine by me, of course, but………..

The University of Texas (and it’s football program) calls itself a leader. Is it? Academically, no question. Football. Look, here’s the deal.

Leaders aren’t leaders because of what it says on their business card or front of their jersey in this case. Leaders are leaders because they ACT LIKE LEADERS. Behavior defines leadership, not hierarchy. UT football’s current non-conference scheduling philosophy is not the behavior of a leader.

Now I can tell you all I want, and you can call me what you want, when I say that Oklahoma is the current “leader” in this league. Certainly the 6 B12 titles is the leading cause, but Joe C’s approach to non-con scheduling is a big part. In the next ten years, Oklahoma finishes a home and home with Miami (2009) and has contracted home and home series with Florida State (‘10-’11), Notre Dame (‘12-’13), Tennessee (‘14-’15), Ohio State (‘16-’17) and LSU (’18-19).

I don’t write this note to be an ass, moreso it’s to challenge you guys to DEMAND of Mighty Mack to quit playing all JV games in September.

In this league everyone is entitled to one or two “freebies.” The Big 12 is tough enough that it’s best teams needn’t paly murderer’s row in September. But, we, and I mean we, should play one “national” matchup, one “beatable name” matchup and two paycheck games.

Now, before you commence calling me names, think about yourselves as season ticket holders. Do you really want to see UTEP, Rice, UL-wherever and Wyoming, or do you want to see Florida St., Notre Dame, Tennesee, Ohio State and LSU come to Austin in the next ten years? I know a few of you are old enough to remember when, between 1990-1995 Penn State, Virginia, Syracuse and Notre Dame visited Austin. That ND game was the SHIT! And the hottest ticket in Texas.

Remember the Ohio State series in ‘05-’06? I’m just sayin’

MAKE YOU DECISION MAKERS CHANGE THE PHILOSOPHY. IT’S GOOD FOR YOU. IT’S GOOD FOR THE LEAGUE.

and don’t ever fucking agree to play in Laramie, Wyoming again. Leaders don’t do that.

NDS – Not sure you will engender a lot of umbrage on this site with those comments.

Here’s a complete list of all the new ideas, creative twists and hard-to-defend innovations Greg Davis has installed in the Horns’ offense in the 213 years he has been OC:

NDSooner makes a lot of sense.

you forgot Mike Sherman’s waistline

NDS, the Big 12 South is so ridiculously strong right now, it is easier to get a BCS bid than it is to get a spot in the Big 12 Championship! I don’t have a big problem with our current scheduling (this year aside, I would have been fine if Arkansas hadn’t reneged)…at least we haven’t scheduled any non-FBS teams and I hope we at least avoid taking that ‘lead’.

I don’t see any rationale for playing even teams that were once great like Miami, FSU, or Tennessee. The current system is all about going undefeated. In fact, if your name is OU or UT you can get an all-but-guaranteed BCS bid with one loss, so why risk getting that loss in some essentially meaningless September game. Only ND has the luxury of losing 2 or 3 games and getting a guaranteed selection by the BCS bowls.

Would I like to see us play ND and OSU in one season or USC and Georgia in the same year? Sure, but why do I have to watch those games in September when it only risks our potential for playing one of them instead in January when both teams are firing on all cylinders? Drop two of those September games and give me a playoff and I’ll get to really see how my team stacks up against the best.

Ultimately I don’t think our schedule is too far out of whack. We have UCLA and Ole Miss over the next 4 years and I am assuming Arkansas will be in the mix for at least one game. I don’t want to get into scheduling potentially ‘good’ games, especially when it is made up of traditional weak sisters be they BCS teams like Cincinnati (I am sure that series was scheduled with the idea that they would win their conference!) or BYU or Air Force. I don’t think you can brag about beating these sorts of teams if they end up winning 9 or 10 games that season (no one I know tried to fluff Rice up to much!), because in a normal year (unlike OU’s 2005 w/TCU) they should pose little opposition and or enthusiasm from the fan base(Who the hell got up for OU’s game against Cincinnati?).

When the real leaders give us a system that rewards playing a tough OOC schedule or at the very least doesn’t punish at team for it, then I’ll be at the forefront calling for a schedule more like the one you are proposing, but at this stage there is no reason to do it. The outcomes certainly haven’t proven OU’s method is best. They get beat regularly by us and by their January opponent.

OU last won a MNC in 2000. Their non-conf schedule that year? Three home games- UTEP, Arkansas State, and Rice.

Watch out for Arkansas State.

Watch.

Out.

Arguing about SOS is kinda pointless. It takes years to get a big name on there, and by then you or they may be Purdue or Mississippi State.

As long as Texas wins 10 every year and recruits at the current level, they’ll ALWAYS be in position to achieve a top-two rating — as long as the Horns get to the Big 12 title game. Getting beat up (physically) by Tennessee and Oregon State in September is a good way to make OU’s task in October a lot easier.

Playoff, Baby . . .

Sooner dude – you guys lost to Oak St in Norman and set the longhorn nation off into a major QB controversy – or at least exacerbated it. Eff off for that. We would have been content to go to the Holiday bowl again without that disaster in Dallas.

Or maybe we went there anyway.

Point is . . . a sooner win in Norman over the pokes is no guarantee. . . . especially this year.

Dickie. If you throw out the Schnellenberger and Blake years (we’ll gladly do that), OSU has beaten OU in Norman exactly once in the past 33 years and three times since World War II. The scores since that 2001 upset are 52-9, 42-14 and 49-17. Stoops also shelled them 44-7 at home in ’99. So, not only is a win in Norman likely, but so is a woodshedding.

I think UTEP is a great pick, but I would include Texas A&M as a ‘wildcard’ if they can ever get their defense in order. I know everyone wants to talk Baylor, but I would not be surprised if A&M finished ahead of the Bears this season.

ponderos,
Texas has only lost to OSU once since the inception of the Big 12 (Mackovic’s horrid last year in Austin). So if Sooners and the media are going to suggest we are likely to lose in Stillwater even though we haven’t lost to OSU since Brown took over, then we are certainly within our bounds to think that an OU win over them is not a shoe-in (no has said that OU is likely to lose, just that there is no guarantee of victory, even if the game is in Norman).

Ricky. I’ve never (any year) suggested OSU would beat Texas. The media hypes OSU every year, only to watch them crumble at critical times – every year. No reason to think this year is any different.

You know, I kind of like Michigan to break out this year. They were weakest on offense, but return all the starters but the QB there (which may be good). They only return 5 starters on defense, but have Greg Robinson as the new DC. Their three toughest games (PSU, tOSU, and ND) are all at home, and their first four games are Western Mich, ND, Eastern Mich, and Indiana, all at home. I think they have a great shot at winning 9 this year.

Ricky- I love your positive attitude about OSU this year and if you could bottle it, I’d buy, but looking at our defensive line and OSU’s rushing attack is giving me a severe case of redass.

The guy mentioning ATM above needs to put the bong down for a while and sit the next few out.

I know everyone wants to talk Baylor, but I would not be surprised if A&M finished ahead of the Bears this season.

Way to set the bar high there.

Taylor -
 
Michigan will break out in the sense that they’re not going to go 3-9 again and will probably qualify for a minor bowl. So they’ll break out in the way that Baylor will break out – from misery to near respectability.
 
However, given that they are Michigan, I grade them on a harder curve. Unfair and arbitrary? Yes. Makes sense to me? Yes.

QBs with twenty starts stifle a yawn when they see a blitz; QBs with three starts avoid blitzes by flinging the ball straight up in the air and digging a trench for their feces.

Not Benjamin Button Daniel.

Scip, query: Have you actually looked to see if your hypothesis about returning experience at OL and DB is more important is supported by the numbers? Makes sense, I’m just curious, especially about the DB part. And, when you say “experience” do you only mean game experience, or program experience? Guys like Kevin Rutland and Munir Prince don’t have much game experience, but significant program experience, and I’m curious what your take is on that.

Great stuff, per usual.

GC:
 
I haven’t tested it quantitatively. I’m kind of curious to do it now. It’s just something I noticed a few years ago and I’ve always used it as a key measuring stick, generally to good effect.
 
I value Game Experience 2X over Program Experience.

Everyone forgets that we played that same Tcu team in 07 just like ou did last year but of course when we do it, we are refusing to play real teams and when they do it… Wow what a leader ou Is, what a joke. By the way just thought I would say this site is becoming a favorite, scipio Tex you always write very good stuff , even the posts are actually people that understand football and our love for Texas football.

Scip, I agree. I’ll get with Euclid and see if we can come up with a way to test it. Going to be tough to mine the data for it. I had always considered experience at DB to be less important than QB and OL, on par with LB, WR, etc. But what you say makes sense.

Judging secondary work is so difficult. Context and line play have huge effects that are well nigh impossible to separate from secondary play.