College Football 2009: And They All Fell Down

by Scipio Tex on Jul 3, 2009 12:43 AM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

Who is slated for their comeuppance in 2009?

Some really good coaches, actually. And one or two that are perceived to be.

I will eschew the legalistic prick picks like Utah (the Utes went 10-3 in 2009, crashing down from their 13-0 record in '08!!!!) and give you a few of the teams that will be picnicking on shit sandwiches and will be qualitatively much worse in 2009.

Cincinnati

Like Jim Grobe at Wake, Brian Kelly has had a remarkable three year run at Cinci (29-11). And he did his best coaching job in 2008. I hope he pocketed some of that capital as he'll need it in 2009. The Bearkats return exactly one defensive starter from 2008 having just completed a three year cycle of good defense (20.1 ppg in '08, 18.8 ppg in '07, 19.6 ppg in '06). That talent is now purged and I expect the Bearkats to struggle. QB Tony Pike will still be throwing to serial child-hugger Mardy Gilyard and they'll score enough to stay respectable, but 6-6 or 7-5 would be a solid achievement for Brian Kelly. In fact, the dude is Knute Rockne if he pulls that off. Mid-major programs have to reload in three to five year cycles and this is the beginning of a new one.

Wake Forest

See above. Jim Grobe is an outstanding football coach and his 28-12 run at Wake over the last three years is a case of extraordinary talent maximization. That written, despite QB Riley Skinner's media friendly image and endless eligibility, the star for Wake was its defense and special teams. All gone now. Stud Aaron Curry and a load of very good DBs and cat quick DL are playing in the NFL now and it's time for Wake to pay the piper. They'll have a losing record in 2009.

Missouri

After winning ten games in 2008, I'm having trouble finding six wins in 2009. Only nine starters return from a team gutted by graduation. Sean Weatherspoon will be a bright spot at LB and a lot of folks feel that young Blaine Gabbert is the real deal at QB, but this team just doesn't have the guns. October will prove particulary nasty when they play this five game stretch: NU, @ OSU, Texas, @ Colorado, Baylor. 1-4 is likely, 0-5 is possible. Sorry Tiger fans, I don't like your chances against the Jayhawks in Kansas City either.

Rice

Ah, Jarrett Dillard, Chase Clement, James Casey. These are players that come along at a Rice once every (three) decade(s) or so. Bert Emmanuel sends his regards. Last year, the Owls went 10-3 and whipped some ass in the Texas Bowl. They'll look back on those halcyon days with real affection. They even grew ironic moustaches! Youuuu guys! A couple of them even got laid by a Rice co-ed who was an honest 7 on a 10 point scale. Truly, an unprecedented year.

The reality of 2009 is that nine returning defensive starters from a defense that gave up 33 per game probably isn't a good thing and depleted offensive firepower in a conference like CONF USA is like going to a chinese throwing star fight (which are common) armed with wacky wallwalkers. 4-8 would be an optimistic projection.

Oregon

CFN predicts them at #7 in 2009 after the Ducks 10-3 effort in 2008. This makes perfect sense: Oregon gave up 28 ppg per game last year and then lost their three best defensive players to the NFL. So we can expect defensive improvements immediately. Offensively, the high-powered Ducks (41.9 per game in '08) return four starters. Including one OL. You know, those fat fucks that open up holes who possess minimal value to an offense. I'm a Chip Kelly fan but if I may quote Samuel L Jackson from Pulp Fiction "You seem to have caught me in a transitional period." Oregon certainly won't have a losing record in 2009, but they're far too vulnerable defensively to be taken seriously against a schedule that features USC, Cal, Boise State, Utah. I don't have to look too hard to see a 8-4 record. Or to be suspicious of anyone named Chip placed in a position of leadership.

South Carolina

True, it's hard to fall down when you never really bring a program up and Spurrier's innovation as a coach peaked sometime around 1992:

You see, I call this the THREE WR SET! ALL OF THEM ARE ELIGIBLE PASS CATCHERS! YOU MUST COVER THE SLOT WITH A LB, CIRCA 1990s S-E-C DEFENSES! AND YOU MUST PLAY MAN. IT IS A RULE! NOW I WILL THROW A FADE ROUTE! HA HA HA HA! THE NFL WON'T KNOW WHAT HIT THEM! HMMM? NICKEL ZONE? WHAT SORT OF WIZARDRY IS THAT?

They went 7-6 last year so it's not like they have much more room to crash and burn and South Carolina plays in the more forgiving SEC East, but I see a team that's worse at every position across the board, has a QB team leader in Garcia who is an insufferable prick, a head coach grown increasingly lazy and complacent in his bad habits, and a coaching staff with massive offseason turnover (lost 6 assistants). Spurrier has avoided a losing record at SC for five years...until now. How long can a guy live off of his reputation?

Ball State

Yes, you probably don't remember this team, but last year various idiot sportswriters and some Barking Carnival scribes took this team seriously after their 12-0 start, ranking them in the Top 15 and demanding that they play Florida or some shit. In any event, Ball State lost their last two games and reminded everyone why they average 19,000 per game in attendance and were forced by the college football gods to exist in Muncie, Indiana. They also lost their head coach to San Diego State and hired Stan Parrish who has a 2-31-1 career record (won a fierce bidding war with Texas A&M). In any event, they graduated everyone and return no one. Or something. Fortunately, you won't have to hear about Ball State this year as they'll be 6-6. I can hear the Central Michigan chatter already...

Texas Tech

I don't see a dramatic decline, but 11-2 isn't happening again. 8-5/9-4 seems more like it. People predicting a total flame-out aren't looking at the evidence. Other than A&M. the South no longer features an easy game and their North draw of Kansas and NU in Lincoln does them no favors. I expect Tech to have a more typical Tech year: an exultant smashing of Aggy, a scare thrown into a big boy (maybe OU in Lubbock), a shootout loss to someone they took for granted (hi Baylor!), and several excellent quotes from Leach.

Thoughts?

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Comments

I agree that Baylor could surprise Tech. Tech fans desperately want a rivalry with Texas, but it ain’t happening. They need to stick to what they do best, anally violating aTm and getting served by Texas. Can’t wait to avenge last year’s nightmare in Lubbock.

Great columns today

by phishpac on Jul 3, 2009 3:45 AM CDT reply actions

Tech gets rolled on by the Cowboys as well.

by Boone Pickens State on Jul 3, 2009 5:12 AM CDT reply actions

1) I will point out only that you and Kirk Bohls are in agreement on Grobe.

2) It’s unclear whether the figures for the Rice co-ed were obtained legitimately, or need an asterisk.

Everything else works for me.

by Parlin Hall on Jul 3, 2009 6:20 AM CDT reply actions

We’ll find out a lot about South Carolina midseason if Spurrier keeps every abreast of his whereabouts, even if it includes (allegedly) hiking the Appalachians with (allegedly) a Paraguaian mistress.

by ponderos on Jul 3, 2009 7:15 AM CDT reply actions

A couple of them even got laid by a Rice co-ed who was an honest 7 on a 10 point scale.

Are we talking Richter scale here?

by BrickHorn on Jul 3, 2009 9:39 AM CDT reply actions

No, silly, he’s talking stockyard scales.

by J.R.69 on Jul 3, 2009 10:18 AM CDT reply actions

Are we talking Richter scale here?

I see no reason to drag LHB into this.

by Spider on Jul 3, 2009 10:40 AM CDT reply actions

Tech fans desperately want a rivalry with Texas, but it ain’t happening. They need to stick to what they do best, anally violating aTm and getting served by Texas.

Not to mention their musical traditions: The Goan Band.

मुद्दे पर आपके पिस्तौलें आकाश!

by Spider on Jul 3, 2009 10:42 AM CDT reply actions

A couple of them even got laid by a Rice co-ed who was an honest 7 on a 10 point scale.

Rice girls can be surprisingly hot when they take their retainers out.

by Ragglefrock on Jul 3, 2009 11:18 AM CDT reply actions

Oregon will be a disaster; they are overrated largely because of the QB, Masoli (sp?), who is indeed a talent, but will not fare as well the second time through the order. Love the unis, though.

South Carolina may be the worst team in the SEC.

I’m pondering Penn State on this list, but can’t decide where they will end up.

Georgia might implode as well; has Richt maxed out?

Nice stuff, Scipio.

by jonestopten on Jul 3, 2009 11:38 AM CDT reply actions

If Richt has maxed out, he’s done it at a high level. If I were a fan of a normal school, I’d be pleased with hovering at their current levels.

Going in a completely different direction from Scipio’s post, like, the exact opposite direction, Boise State is going to be painful for all of us this year. They are going to beat Oregon senseless early on. Oregon will have been well regarded up to that point. Oregon will go on to finish at .500 or below. You say it is unlikely, but I view 7-5 as the top expectation for them during the regular season. Anyway, Boise State will then go on to play the biggest joke of a schedule in all of college football. Seriously, I look at it and I am more embarrassed about it than I am for HenryJames. At the end of the year, buoyed partly by the “huge” victory over an Oregon team that wound up being pretty shitty, they’ll be in a BCS game. This will not be BSU from several years back or Utah of 2004 or 2008. This will be a miserably overrated team that will have their nuts kicked in by whoever they play, unless it is someone from the Big Least. So, I am crossing my fingers that Oregon can pull off the win.

My list would have included Alabama. I don’t see anything better than 8-4 this year for them, probably worse. I will enjoy it.

by CloseToJumping on Jul 3, 2009 12:39 PM CDT reply actions

Oh, I did not mean to be critical of Richt (too critical anyway). Some of his troubles have to do with now having to slug it out with Saban and Meyer every season. Georgia has gone from a year-in, year-out contender to a team where the stars need to align (somewhat like West Virginia). The stars aligned for Georgia last season and injuries derailed them. Too bad for Richt.

In addition to Florida and ’Bama, I can;t imagine the Richt family is thrilled that Paul Johnson took the Georgia Tech job.

by jonestopten on Jul 3, 2009 7:26 PM CDT reply actions

I don’t see 4 losses on Bama’s schedule. The D should be even better. *

*Homer.

by Lowery on Jul 3, 2009 9:20 PM CDT reply actions

I see Alabama as a three loss team or so. The defense should keep them in games and I don’t see JPW’s departure as a loss at all. The OL will be fairly weak though.

by Scipio Tex on Jul 5, 2009 9:24 PM CDT reply actions

“A couple of them even got laid by a Rice co-ed who was an honest 7 on a 10 point scale.”

Nah, I knew that girl. She was a friend visiting from Texas St.

by BatesHorn on Jul 6, 2009 1:31 PM CDT reply actions

jones- How will Penn State survive the graduation of Derrick Williams?

by BatesHorn on Jul 6, 2009 1:34 PM CDT reply actions

Penn State graduated all of their starting receivers (Butler and Norwood, as well). They have a ton of offensive talent (certainly relative to the Big Ten) and the defense will be fine. They should beat most of the teams in conference and have a legitimate shot at Ohio State…but Phil Steele has them ranked fifth. I don’t buy it.

by jonestopten on Jul 7, 2009 5:18 PM CDT reply actions

Scip ~ 0-5 really? We Mizzou fans understand that a bit of a step back is in order, but the Big 12 North isn’t that good and Mizzou isn’t going to be that bad. Nebraska is right there with us, and Kansas only get’s an edge b/c of Reesing. I’m not sure I’d (or even Buff fans) would take their “known” QB situation over the unknown one Mizzou is coming in with. Personally I’m going 7-8 wins for Mizzou, but I appreciate the “under-the-radar” approach very much. Peace

by jazz1258 on Jul 7, 2009 6:31 PM CDT reply actions

jazz:

No doubt that the Big 12 North’s mediocrity will have a leveling effect across the board, but I think Mizzou is a year away from respectability.

by Scipio Tex on Jul 8, 2009 8:39 AM CDT reply actions

Is Grobe a guy we could see have similar success at a bigger school (i.e. South Carolina) or is he one of those coaches who has reached his level at WF?

by Jim Wacker, Fran the Man, Gerry Faust, etc.. on Jul 8, 2009 6:25 PM CDT reply actions

“Is Grobe a guy we could see have similar success at a bigger school (i.e. South Carolina) or is he one of those coaches who has reached his level at WF?”

Scipio is recuperating after the extremely emotional Jackson service; I’m sure he’ll answer presently.

In the meantime, and at the risk of throwing cold water on the man-love that goes Grobe’s way, I’ll point out that only three coaches who played multiple games against Bill Callahan’s NU had a losing record against that football genius: Ron Prince (KSU), Guy Morriss (BU), and Jim Grobe (WF).

Schools like KU, CU, and even ISU found a way to win against Callahan; Grobe lost two in a row.

by Parlin Hall on Jul 8, 2009 9:28 PM CDT reply actions

I think Grobe is a guy who is well-suited to where he is. I don’t know that he’s ready for a big-time program.

His value is in finding talent that flies under the radar and then making them football players. That’s a different skill set from securing signatures from elite recruits, managing powerful alumni, and dealing with the expectations of a powerful football mad alumni base.

by Scipio Tex on Jul 9, 2009 1:45 PM CDT reply actions

Hi!. Thanks for the blog. I’ve been digging around for info, but there is so much out there. Yahoo lead me here – good for you i guess! Keep up the great information. I will be popping back over in a couple of days to see if there is updated posts.

by Amy on Dec 18, 2009 2:14 PM CST reply actions