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Why I am wrong about Georgia

Maybe you are, too. I noted in a recent Scipio post on who was headed for a fall that perhaps Georgia had "maxed out" under Mark Richt (not a bad place to max out really, multiple 10/11 win seasons, conference titles, Sugar Bowls). I thought perhaps Georgia was becoming a team where all the stars needed to align in a given year and their year was last year. I'm wrong.

If you take into account what Georgia lost, namely Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, you tend to drop them into the teens. But if you look carefully at what they either return, or, more importantly, reclaim from a lengthy injured reserve list last year, which included both their best offensive and defensive lineman, then I think the Bulldogs are one of the best ten teams in the country. Add in Richt's ability as a quarterback coach and a stud recruiting class--largely ignored compared the hauls of Alabama, LSU and Florida--and I would make a decent bet that Georgia has a special season. I certainly would not (and will not) rank them behind Alabama, LSU and Mississippi. Hmmmm, Mark Richt with low expectations versus Houston Nutt with high ones? Easy pick.

For that matter, I am guessing that Florida won't coast to victory in Jacksonville by simply showing up with an ESPN documentary film crew and a caravan of pilgrims charting (and weighing) the movements of the Great Circumciser.

We shall see.

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One of the keys to Georgia’s victory over the Gators in ‘07 was Florida’s inability to take a talented Bulldog squad seriously. Given their absoltue soul crusing beatdown of Ga last year I can help but wonder how complacent this years Florida team will be heading into that game.

by Flamingmonkeyass on Aug 5, 2009 9:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Good point. Damn, I’m ready for football to start!

Hook ’em!

by uthookem on Aug 5, 2009 10:22 PM CDT reply actions  

What, me root against Jorts Jesus?

by Pancho Claus on Aug 5, 2009 10:23 PM CDT reply actions  

They look 10-3 to me. I like them in Stillwater.
 
Georgia’s best teams under Richt were led by the defense. I could see that with this group.
 
I don’t have much regard for Richt as an offensive mind (and I think he has a leash on Bobo) and his ability to crap his pants Between the Hedges against inferior teams is a real problem.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 5, 2009 10:58 PM CDT reply actions  

They also lost their top receiver, Mohammed Massoquai, I believe.

by Steve Nebraska on Aug 5, 2009 11:10 PM CDT reply actions  

AJ Green begs to differ.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 5, 2009 11:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Scipio:

I like them in Stillwater, too, which is a damn shame for our eventual SOS.

Interesting point about Richt’s offense, it can be underwhelming. But I do like the way he prepares QBs. Guy won with Joe Tereshinski for God’s sake.

by jonestopten on Aug 6, 2009 6:53 AM CDT reply actions  

You are basically betting on Joe Cox to be able to step in an be an efficient QB and a leader. Everything I have read about the kid would lead me to believe he can.

Losing Moreno is tough, but Georgia seems to always have good running backs.

I like them in Stillwater also. That is betting on Joe Cox not to shit the bed and Mike Gundy to soil his own drawers. I’ll take that and the points.

by The General on Aug 6, 2009 8:11 AM CDT reply actions  

Couldn’t agree more.

That said, I’m not ready to give them the one in Stillwater until I see them competently defend the run…something they absolutely could not do a year ago.

by hiphopopotamus on Aug 6, 2009 8:27 AM CDT reply actions  

i think they romp in stillwater…uga lost 18 of their 85 to season-ending injuries last year. that’s just an astonishing stat. the additional depth they’ll have this year b/c of that will pay multiples. and as mentioned above, richt’s quarterbacks just don’t lose games (may not win them, but usually very good game managers). running back is the big question mark, but they’re recruiting has been very good at the position in recent years. big time sleeper pick this year. schedule is toughest in the country though. SEC + GA Tech, OSU, and AZ St out of conference. Wish we could play 2 BCS conference teams in a year, not to mention 3 (and all above avg programs w/i their leagues).

by Spoons on Aug 6, 2009 8:38 AM CDT reply actions  

Maybe this post will draw mdr out of witness protection.

Does Georgia have a DB that can make Dez disappear like he tends to do against quality opponents?

Assuming they don’t get mauled in the trenches from the first snap, which is a distinct possibility, I still like Okie State in this game mainly for the collective advantage of:

A)Early season draw against a team that might need a few games to gel.

B)Cowboys have the more balanced, experienced offense with guys that can hurt you at every skill position.

C)T. Booneshine Pickens Stadium. Those Okies will be a three-day lather of piss, shit, and Evan Williams.

Either way, this spectacle can’t get on my TV fast enough.

by Vasherized on Aug 6, 2009 8:53 AM CDT reply actions  

I’m hoping Georgia takes down Ok State and thus eliminates the potential nightmare three-way tie scenario.

by anonymous on Aug 6, 2009 9:12 AM CDT reply actions  

Gundy is not great at home; Richt is terrific on the road (Jacksonville excluded).

OSU might be better off going to Athens…

by jonestopten on Aug 6, 2009 9:28 AM CDT reply actions  

That doesn’t change the fact that if they go 10-2 but 7-1 in conference you would still have a three way with Oklahoma ending up being the higher ranked because of earliest lost and stronger schedule, Georgia game will only hurt the big 12 if okie st loses , nothing good can come from a cowboy loss unless you think that would kill their soul and then start losing a bunch of games, but to me beating a revved up okie st team that already has a win over a team from the lords conference will help Texas in the long run more than beating them when the country already knows they are a pretender. What we need to hope for is an early loss to byu or Miami from Oklahoma so that the bcs can’t rank them above us if it’s another 3 way

by Travis on Aug 6, 2009 10:14 AM CDT reply actions  

I guess you’re right, Travis. A Georgia loss would be irrelevant. No more posting before coffee for me.

by anonymous on Aug 6, 2009 10:50 AM CDT reply actions  

What Vasherized says….

by Pokey on Aug 6, 2009 11:52 AM CDT reply actions  

…but in a man’s voice.

by HenryJames on Aug 6, 2009 11:56 AM CDT reply actions  

“C)T. Booneshine Pickens Stadium. Those Okies will be a three-day lather of piss, shit, and Evan Williams.”

I really figured the pokes for more Early Times than Evan Williams, but I guess I shouldn’t split hairs.

Funny one, there, HJ.

by uthookem on Aug 6, 2009 11:35 PM CDT reply actions  

“Guy won with Joe Tereshinski for God’s sake.”

Well, not really. JTIII started one game in 2005, the (albeit close) loss to Florida. Richt was probably rope-a-doping for the SEC East crown, but it was a loss nonetheless.

Started the season opener in 2006 against Western Kentucky/Carolina/Whatever. Went down hurt against South Carolina, pushing Matt Stafford to the starting role. Came back for the game against Tennessee and was rolling before the defense collapsed in the second half. That was pretty much it.

I think more credit- as in, a thousand tons more- should be given for making David Greene into the winningest QB in NCAA D1-A history.

by D.N. Nation on Aug 7, 2009 9:22 AM CDT reply actions  

Willie Martinez is a poor Defensive Coordinator, let’s see if they can lay off the penalties. I think GT will beat ’em this year at Bobby Dodd.

by Buddy Garrity on Aug 7, 2009 10:10 AM CDT reply actions  

Re: Evan Williams and Boone Pickens Stadium

Georgia’s road games typically feature 92,000+ fans from Alabama, Louisiana, Florida, or Tennessee lathered up on Jim Beam, moonshine and rage. I’m much more concerned about Dez Bryant.

by Jason on Aug 7, 2009 10:31 AM CDT reply actions  

Loving the Georgia love from you Texas fans. Hope to see you in the NC game.

hiphopopotamus: Georgia will be great against the run this year. The return of Jeff Owens alone will result in a much better defensive line. Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins are no doubt the best pair of DTs in the nation. Several of the injured starters last year return on the defensive side of the ball this year.

Vasherized: Brandon “Bam” Boykin (#2) is a stud. He will handle Dez.

I’ll be in Stillwater. Joe Cox is a stud. He was rated the #2 QB out of the Elite 11 class when he came out of high school. Guess who was #1? Mark Sanchez! Richt will have them prepared. It’s hard to doubt a coach with a 25-4 road record.

by Dawg Fan! on Aug 7, 2009 3:05 PM CDT reply actions  

Dawg Fan,

This could be the toughest out of conference game you have had in the Richt era (the year ender against GT could be even bigger, but GT is a rival) and its on the road, so I am not so sure going by the book (or the 25-4 road record built against a lot of weaker teams) is necessarily appropriate. Now OSU could lose that game and pull a Clemson and take the shine off of a victory. But win or lose, I think OSU will put a credible season, which will either make a Bulldog win all the more impressive or it might take a little of the sting out of a loss.

by Ricky on Aug 7, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions  

I apologize, I pulled an old stat. Mark Richt’s current road record is 30-4.

Ricky: 30-4 is his record in games in the opponent’s stadium. I never said “non-conference.” Not sure how you could say playing in the SEC is “against a lot of weaker teams!” Are you kidding me?

You’re right, this will be one of the toughest non-conference games we’ve played under Richt, only if they’re really that good. We’ll see how they play the rest of the year. I hope you’re right about them having a credible season. UGA win or lose, I wish Oklahoma State the best afterwards b/c their success can only help us.

None of this devalues the impressive stat Richt has of 30-4 in opponent’s stadiums. Is it not impressive?

We’ve had several “tough” out of conference opponents during the Richt era that have been highly ranked and touted, but didn’t work out well for us. i.e. Arizona State (‘08), Oklahoma State (’07), Colorado (‘06), Boise State (’05)… They were all great programs when they were scheduled and/or supposed to be great teams they year we played them, but none amounted to much those years we beat them. (Just like you’re talking about with Clemson.) We’ll just have to wait and see…

by Dawg Fan! on Aug 8, 2009 8:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Dawg Fan:
 
None of this devalues the impressive stat Richt has of 30-4 in opponent’s stadiums. Is it not impressive?
 
Serious question: why do UGA fans fetishize Richt’s road record so much? I’ve never managed to have a conversation with a Bulldog fan without hearing it mentioned.
 
Texas under Brown is 33-4 on the road over the same time period.
 
No Longhorn fan really gives a shit. Or is probably aware of that fact without looking it up (I did). My guess is that we’re interested in the total season result. It sounds suspiciously like a feel-good stat pushed by the SID dept to encourage fans to forget about the game in Jacksonville and some weird home losses.
 
It’s a very good thing to win on the road, but does that obviate losing 1-2 home games a year and dropping a neutral site game every year against Florida?
 
Does getting blown out at home against Tennessee or Alabama or to Florida at a neutral site feel better than losing a road game? Frankly, I’d be irritated that he’s 42-9 in your own place and 10-9 at neutral sites given the quality road performance.
 
Maybe he should have your players ride a bus for two hours before home games.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 8, 2009 9:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Scipio Tex:

I agree 100%. There is no good excuse for Richt’s home record or neutral site record. I’d love it if he threw the players on a bus every home game and made them feel like it was an away game.

I think UGA fans use stat so often because he is 30-4 in his first 34 road games as a head coach. For whatever reason, he’s been successful on the road since day one. I’d be interested in knowing what Mack Brown did in his first 34 games (or 8 seasons) as a head coach and also what his total road record in his career is now.

Richt’s real problem is our DC Willie Martinez can’t make adjustments mid-half. For example, UGA made great half-time changes last year during the Bama game, but had no clue what was going on in the first half.

Anyway, I agree with you. But I think his road record is a positive when evaluating the UGA vs. Oklahoma State game.

by Dawg Fan! on Aug 12, 2009 9:30 AM CDT reply actions  

In his first eight years at Texas, Brown was 31 – 6 in away (non-neutral site) games. Three of those six losses came in his first season.

Great. Now we have another stat for the SID to whip us with.

by TaylorTRoom on Aug 12, 2009 9:52 AM CDT reply actions  

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