Non-obvious obvious things

Good stuff, CA. Go against the flow (which the idiot poll voters don’t do).

I think Baylor’s QB is legit good — but he’s not enough to overcome years of so-so recruiting. Look at what he did: 4-8, one of those over a horrid Aggie team, two others over a I-AA and 1-11 Washington State. Bears were 3-9 without him in 2007. They lost the No. 2 pick in the draft. I say 6-6 at best with a 50-50 chance of no bowl.

As to Florida: One SEC loss in regular season, another to FSU or in the SEC title game. (That’s my hope, not my prediction.)

Griffin was a true (right?) freshman last year, don’t forget. He’s going to get better. I just think everyone kind of forgot what an awesome job Bradley did when he was there, and underrate how good Griffin made everyone on offense look.

So how does 4-8 equal a turnaround that Briles gets credit for? And Baylor didn’t go 0-12 when they legitimately sucked at every single position.

Bill Bradley is forever loved and overrated by our fans, even those semi-paying attention. I don’t see much to discount in regard to Baylor’s defense this year against the average opponent. Pawelek is legit, the other LBs are also good. The DBs are experienced if nothing else, and that counts, even in this league. If Taylor is worth a shit, that defense isn’t worse and the Bill Bradley reference is both cliched and stupid.

I agree that Florida has a good chance to lose a game this season. I don’t find Georgia nearly as compeling as the lot of you guys, and I expect Florida to blow them back across the state line yet again. So Florida lost Harvin, two OLs, and pretty much nothing else. Georgia lost a stud QB, TB, WR, and a number of players on defense. Please help me understand why we should take the scoring gap between those two teams a year later and compress it. It isn’t going to be a case of Mark Richt and Martinez outsmarting Meyer and company. If it is, do tell. LSU will be a year older at key positions, a lot like Florida. When we think about that game, however, should we be thinking about Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee marching the LSU offense down the field to victory against the entire returning 2 deep of the Florida defense? I am like you, however, that schedule is forgiving, but the SEC is tough and Florida should well lose one along the way. I pick either Charleston South or Florida State. FSU might be able to muster enough defense to be competitive and if Christian Ponder gets injured, maybe an unknown can carry their offense to some semblance of respectability.

UT losing to OU is not exactly a non-obvious possibility. It is something considered and feared in almost any CFB conversation I’ve been around for the past half-year.. I agree with your points, in any event. I just don’t think the options beyond Gresham and Broyles materialize. I watched a show the other day where the offensive coaches and Stoops were bragging on Brandon Caleb. This is a senior that has not been good enough to contribute during his eligibility. Now he’s someone to look out for? Hey, Nate Jones did it, I guess anything is possible.

If you really want to go non-obvious, take some kind of risk, you hillbilly. I like Illinois or Iowa to win the Big 10. Ohio State will lose 3 games, Penn State is getting love for no understandable reason.

Miami will be good this year, as will Arkansas, and both are at risk of barely crossing .500.

Shit like that.

your namesakes defined the double player legitimization process right on our campus.

comma chris.

CTJ, I know you can read because your entire life force is drawn from making other people on the internet miserable. I hope I put another two weeks on your lifespan.

My point is that everybody is treating these things as an inevitability (granted I don’t know who the fuck you talk to, but I am stuck around people who care more about Twilight and cactus gardening than sports so I have to go to the major outlets), when none of them really stand up to inspection.

Could Baylor become a 6-7 win team? Sure, but there is an even better chance they don’t.

Will UF be the best team on the field 12 straight weeks? Yep, but they’ll still probably drop one.

Will Texas beat OU? Probably, but it’s not like it’s even a 60/40 shot right now.

These are three obvious things that enough people for me to notice are potentially very wrong about. Nobody has really thought rationally about Florida in the last 3 years.

Bingo, Chris.

OU is one very likely Ryan Reynolds injury and one failed bribe from Balogun’s lawyer away from starting Austin Box (not the great 6th street kind) at MLB.

UT is one very likely Lamarr Houston injury from watching OU run the draw play for 8 yards a clip against Kheeston Randall and a random placeholder.

So many variables in a regular season to call anything yet.

I told you to look out for Nate Jones.

Nate:

Isn’t OU likely to play 5 DBs against UT this year? UT is probably going to start Dan Buckner at detached DE. Obviously OU can not cover Buckner with an LB (even a safety might have a problem unless he is really fast).

Could OU be aligned in a 4-2-5 versus UT? Why put 3 LBs against UT? Will OU even necessarily have an MLB against UT?

I am so good that I can put a stop to blowout losses 2 years removed from a program and my poltergeist recruits DTs all the way up to Happy Valley….

Given OU’s green O line, they will probably simplify their blocking schemes somewhat this year vs UT. I expect to see much more downhill/power running by OU to try to force UT to play 3 LBs and exploit any D line weakness that UT might have.

Power/downhill running will also build confidence for the OU O line by giving them a chance to maul somebody. Last, if the UT D line is a relative weakness this season so why not attack their primary responsibility (i.e. stopping the run)?

OU’s O line and UT’s D line will relatively weak this season but OU’s O line have the benefit of their coach calling plays that will mask that weakness.

Muschamp probably responds by putting Christian Scott at LB vs OU. He will be a reliable run stopper while still being able to cover/tackle Gresham.

OU probably throws a lot more short passes vs UT to negate the UT pass rush. Most OU long passes will be play action passes.

You mean Bill Bradley that never went out and recruited while at Baylor? And you wonder why the recruiting and talent level was at a low level.

Baylor has recruited a hundred times better already since Bradley left.

This is the thinnest WR corp we have had in some time. We are one Shipley twisted knee from having to rely on Collins and Kirkendoll as our primary receivers and neither will EVER draw a double team. Ever.

I think I’d vote for Mike Singletary over Robert Griffin.

At this point, I’d vote for Walter Abercrombie or Santana Dotson over Robert Griffin. There’s a decent chance that will change, but I’m not enumerating poultry.

Singletary or Santana Dotson…take your pick…

“So Florida lost Harvin, two OLs, and pretty much nothing else.”

Watch the SEC and BCS Championship games and look for me. I’m the guy making Tebow look good.

Also in regard to Harvin’s replacement…this may interest you: The Haden Smoke Screen

Agree on Florida – losing Harvin will hurt more than they realizze.

Don’t care about Baylor – f Art Briles.

Disagree on OU – it doesn’t matter how many weapons Bradford has to throw to, he won’t have enough time to find them. Their offense won’t break 20 against Texas.

The biggest mismatch in the ou game is our secondary against their WR’s. I expect Tennel and Broyles to be absolutely locked down by Williams and Brown. Bring in Owens for a 3 wide, which plays right into Muschamps hands, and our nickel smothers Owens. If I’m ou, I get stubborn, go two TE’s and try to win the game with body blows between the tackles and Bradford play passes.

If they try to spread Texas out and allow Muschamp to dictate pressure, they’ll turn the ball over and risk losing Bradford behind an experience Oline. Our secondary WILL make him hold on to the ball longer than he’s used to. It’s happening to Colt everyday in practice against Texas’ deep, talented secondary.

College and Pro Football Hall of Fame

Put some pants on.

The biggest mismatch (in UT’s favor) is OU’s pass blocking vs UT’s pass rush. To negate this, OU will probably throw short to TEs, TBs and FBs quite a bit (as well as pound the ball at UT’s DL).

The UT DB vs OU WR matchup won’t be that important because OU won’t dependably give Sam enough time to throw long very often. In any event, OU will prefer to make UT’s LBs play pass defense (covering OU’s TB, FB, and TEs).

Will probably see Sam throw on the rollout more this year.

OU probably scores less than 35 this year because their offense will be more grind it out rather than quick striking.

There are only two teams that are really capable of shoving the ball down our throat, and they are both in Oklahoma. I may hate Bob Stoops, but he ain’t stupid. He’ll try to take advantage of our weakness and depth on the DL.

I think our corners are good enough to leave on an island and allow the safeties to focus on the run. Which leaves Gresham and play action, and visions of Gene Chizik.

So I think that it’s possible, but not probable, that we could lose.

Grant Teaff built a program and made a living for his first 5 or 6 years at Baylor because nobody could believe something had changed in Waco. Briles will benefit from the same inertia. But there are other necessary factors in place. Baylor now has facilities that are second to none, dazzling, awe inspiring, a big draw to young recruits. And Briles is loved by the high school coaches across the State of Texas. And then there’s the fact that Briles is a pretty dang good coach. He’s won everywhere he’s been. And Griffin? what did Michael Vick do for VT? This year will seal Briles legacy as a miracle worker, resurrecting a Baylor program against a stacked deck. Will Baylor replace the schools favored with the blessing of the media and the conferences (spelled corporations)? No. But Baylor will be a factor in the conference, and will visit the national rankings in the Brile era. Considering the nightmare of the past 20 years, we’ll take it.

ChrisApplewhite:
 
The problem is, unfortunately, that Florida probably does make the national title game with one loss unless that loss happens in the SEC title game.
 
BUmaruski:
 
You outline a reasonable scenario. I don’t know if that’s how it will go down as it doesn’t account for the attention that Briles will get from bigger programs when he takes Baylor to a bowl.

I’ve won everywhere I’ve been, too!

Scipio, question for me would be what kind of job would Briles want? Does he want to leave Texas, like Jim Wacker did? If not (because the roots are deep), there aren’t that many jobs for which he could jump.

He’d leave Texas if he could maintain a presence here. So border states and the conference affiliated aren’t out of the question.
 
As you know, he’s a Tech alum. Tech doesn’t represent a program infrastructure upgrade over Baylor per se, but it’s home.
 
A&M would be very intriguing.
 
OSU – sure.
 
Obviously, I don’t expect to see him at Michigan.

I see Briles making a jump to the SEC one day. No reason other than it would be a good fit for him.

I thought Briles was a UH alum? I see—he played for UH (74-77) but finished his degree at Tech. I’ll leave that one alone.

“what did Michael Vick do for VT?” Well, he was there from 1998-2000, but only played in 1999 and 2000. The five years before Vick, they went 44-16 (73.3%). They went 22-2 in those 2 seasons Vick played, and 47-18 (72.3%) the next five. So Vick’s impact outside of the two seasons he played was…?

I could see him at an Arkansas type school, assuming Petrino didn’t cut it. And, if I’m Baylor I replace him with Sumlin. Briles, definitely has the mandatory smugness required of SEC honchos.

speaking of briles.

have you guys been following si’s plan to petition the schools every week, requesting that week’s usatoday ballot through the open records law?

i’ve been hoping to hear commentary on this board about it.

They should be held accountable for their votes. It’s the only way to keep them honest. It’s not like it’s card check and union voting.

That’s a fantastic idea, except Baylor’s a private school and not subject to open records laws. Great point.

I disagree on all of your points.

1.) Defense wins championships. UF’s defense is not unlike an army of sasquatches equipped with flamethrowers and Stinger missiles.

2.) UT could lose the OU game. However, this falls far below the level of obvious. Stoops likely will try to run up the middle. However, his line will be gassed by the second quarter if he attempts this, which will result in the worst part of his offense becoming that much worse. The big question is: can UT develop a running game that will allow the passing game to work well? If Vondrell starts finding daylight and Cody starts chalking up a consistent 3.5 ypc, it will be a long day for the Sooners. Recall that run blocking is hard on an O-line, but we have the luxury of giving our line a break by calling pass plays.

3.) People are ignoring Baylor, and that works in their favor. They won’t knock OU or UT off, but they are a match for everyone else in the conference.

Now, sure, but in 5 years?