Year-to-Year QB Improvement

Interesting. Some times you may have 4 years of stats… but maybe not 4 years as a starter.

For example… Ced Benson was a starter his first year, but didn’t do so until about halfway through the season… and didn’t FULLY carry the load until later.

I think this in part is to coaches keeping a tighter leash (distrust) on younger QB’s and later opening up the playbook. Just look at our Backups… do they ever actually throw a pass… that mentality is probably pervasive in how freshmen & sophomores are SEEN. So that skews things slightly.

The only thing I can think of for the growth from junior to senior seasons is often, multi-year starters were the bell cow of a good recruiting class, and all of these seniors mature together. It is also a contract year for a kid that is on the brink of going to the NFL or to the coaching ranks, and they really bust their ass learning going into their senior seasons.

It would seem, however, that Colt didn’t get much better going from RS-Freshman to RS-Sophomore, and then completely bucked the trend going into his RS-Junior season. Does that mean he’ll screw up this season and buck the trend and get worse, or (if past performance of other folks is any kind of predictor, damn statistics) get a lot better? I hope it’s the latter.

Hook ’em!

Donny -

That’s possible but unlikely to be a widespread problem. A minimum of 15 pass attempts per game are required to get into the NCAA rankings.

The idea on the playcalling conservatism makes sense from the perspective you’re looking at it. But I don’t think it addresses why 3rd-to-4th year improvement is greater than 2nd-to-3rd year improvement. Do the coaches give more autonomy to the 4th year player? If so and that’s a contributing factor to what we see here, should more coordinators and coaches be allowing their QBs to call plays on the field?

Well, Colt makes two quarterbacks in a row that made huge strides between their second and third years on the field at Texas as far as throwing the ball is concerned. Maybe Greg Davis has a three-years-to-learn kind of system or something.

Leadership is probably another aspect. Take Colt… As a freshman and sophomore we still had many players from the 05 championship team as the leaders. THEY were the ones that people rallied around.

From his sophomore to Jr year…The transition of the old guard to new guard began as all the prior leadership graduated and he was expected to pick up those reins. I imagine some growing pains were taking place.

Now as a senior, not only has he physically matured more, but also mentally. The growing pains are over.

Just a theory…. that probably accounts for a little bit of the change.

Couldn’t this also be a statistical confirmation of the mythical “Sophmore Slump”

In baseball, pitchers have problems replicating their first year success in the second year, but those who manage to improve in their third years play for a long time.

Or maybe Colt and VY were on P90x, so they never plateaued?

AzulOx -

I think you’re reading the numbers wrong. The “slump” is in their 3rd, or junior, year. The improvement from 1st to 2nd year is the biggest improvement overall. It’s that 3rd year that doesn’t yield quite the improvement you’d expect. Or the way I’m looking at it is that the 4th year is showing more improvement than I’d expect.

Yeah, so maybe I was a Comm major that can’t read stats……..

I’ll offer an alternative:
I think that the traditional “sophmore slump” has more to do with a graduating support cast that it does with actual player regression.

I would love to see someone reseach “freshman phenoms” who then followed up with a “sophmore slump” in the following season. Cross reference that list with impact players (or an experienced O-line) that graduated between the two seasons.

For a close to home example: In 2006, Colt has a great o-line, & is annointed the next wunderkind. The next year, when we are grooming a new o-line, Colt is a pinata and predictably struggles.

I ran the numbers, and I think we can reasonably expect Colt to account for roughly 7800 yards of total offense, with ~80 touchdowns and two turnovers. Anything less should be regarded as a miserable failure, and proof of God’s non-existence.

As far as Colt goes, didn’t his sophomore year coincide with an almost brand-new o-line? His frosh. year he was essentially playing behind a very experienced, NFL caliber offensive line. His sophomore year, not so much. At least, that is what I remember being said.

Boyz II Men

I’ll go with a sense of overconfidence that leads to trying to do too much in the third year. Colt said something similar and his dropoff happening ‘a year earlier’ may be influenced by the depletion of supporting cast as mentioned above.

Year 1 to year 2 is about physically developing their bodies to the next level and getting adjusted to the speed. I think year 3 and year 4 is a reflection of the quarterback just being more comfortable in their skin and playing a bit looser. It’s also the end of their journey and great athletes are more likely to hit that zone when they are playing with a little more edge. Two factors contribute to that edge with an elite QB: 1. NFL prospects and 2. marking their legacy.

You really wonder if Ohio State backs off of Boekman so much if they knew this stat. He had a nice final game.