Barking Bets: Week 2

by Barking Carnival Staff on Sep 10, 2009 11:48 AM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

A forgettable card until I look at my bank statement. I put too much stock in Tom O'Brien and Russell Wilson. O'Brien's NC State offense made the wing T look innovative. Wilson looked like he was slower than Stephen Garcia. Perhaps a looming Major League contract would make us all a bit slower. So two nickels down there.

Ok State made about 4 plays from scrimmage on offense, had some big returns, and were the beneficiaries of a horrible personal foul call to lead to another touchdown. As for GA's QB, the descriptor I give you is a dyslexic "Cox sucked". He had swine flu, I understand. Another nickel gone.

I won some shekels on the Baylor game as I capped it to perfection. Wake couldn't do anything offensively until the 4th quarter, and Robert Griffin made just enough plays to win the game. So to recap, 1-2 down two units for the day. But there's always another week of betting as long as there's dough in the old 529 plan. These are, after all, college expenses right?

Texas -33.5 at Wyoming. 3 units.
I rarely bet the Horns, and I rarely make the three unit diamond bet, but this strikes me as a really good spot for the heavy favorite. Laying 5 TD's means there are obvious matchup advantages and I'll get to those later, but the spot here is solid if you were paying attention to last Saturday's 39 point blowout win. Unlike most blowouts, this one provided, how do I say, several coaching opportunities that will be directed at a few Longhorn players. And if you paid attention to the post game comments from various Texas coaches opportunities won't be pleasant for the recipients. Texas will come out on fire on the defensive side of the ball this Saturday. You can bank on it.

Offensively, you could tell the Horns knew they could drop 50 on Monroe by being plain vanilla. McCoy was instructed not to run. Mal Williams was an afterthought on offense. And the only deep ball of the night went for 75 yards and a touch. Everything else was short or intermediate. If you can drop 50 on a club without exposing your stud QB to a pass rush from a team that blitzes 70% of the time, why do anything else. Which gets to me to the matchup portion of the write up.

On offense, Texas will be facing a team that rarely blitzes. Something like 30% of the time. The Cowboys rely on getting pressure with their front 4 which allows their young secondary to rely on safety help and jump a lot of the shorter routes. Versus Texas this works against Wyoming in a couple ways. First, they won't be able to pressure McCoy with just 4. Despite all the woes Texas has running the ball, the Oline is a pass protection juggernaut and may be one of the top two or three units in the country in this respect.

Second, without the threat of the blitz, Texas can feel more comfortable playing DJ Monroe who struggles in pass pro, but happens to be the Longhorns' most explosive running back. He had 7 yards per carry last week and an 89 yard kickoff return for a touch. We know Texas will chunk it all over the field against the Cowboys, and that has to worry you as a Cowboy backer because Wyoming gave up 322 yards passing to lowly Weber State. Look for McCoy to carve up this young Cowboy secondary, but don't be surprised to see the Texas running game get untracked with chunks yards against a conservative Cowboy defense.

Defensively, the Horns will probably remain vanilla as they did against UL Monroe. The advantage here, though, is this Longhorn defense is very familiar with the offense former Mizzou OC Dave Christiansen will roll out this Saturday. You need to look no further than last year's first half shutout of Mizzou to figure that out. Texas should be able to pressure the Cowboys by rushing just 4 but don't be surprised if the Horns blitz a bit more in this game knowing the Cowboys pose more of a threat than ULA-Mon. Either way, the Cowboys will struggle to put up points without the benefit of big plays, as 3 of their 6 scoring drives started in Weber State territory last week. And you can bet Muschamp harped on big plays and busted assignments all week in practice. Simply put, the Cowboys will not be able to sustain drives against this defensive unit. They couldn't against Weber State.

In summary, here's the bet.

-Texas' subpar performance, even if it was a 39 point blowout, will have them playing on a razor's edge this week.

-Weber State was an onside kick away from beating Wyoming on their home turf.

-Weber State had nearly the same total yards as the Cowboys and threw for 322.

-Weber State threw 5 interceptions while the Cowboys played turnover free. I'd be shocked if McCoy threw more than one, and the Cowboys had less than three turnovers.

-Texas knows this Wyoming offense.

-Texas will be super excited to get out of the Texas heat. Temp for the game should be 60.

Give me Texas 52 to 10.

Pitt -10 at Buffalo. 2 units.
The fighting 'staches take on Buffalo in a game that amounts to a huge value play. This is the time to put on your Huckleberry cap. Last week, Buffalo was a 12 point dog on the road at UTEP. Let's say UTEP's homefield advantage is 3.5 and Buffalo's home-field advantage is 3.5 as well. A seven point swing that would make UTEP a 5 point favorite at Buffalo. Pitt's now -10 and UTEP would be -5. So the books are saying Pitt would be a 5 point favorite on a neutral vs. UTEP? Weird.

This is the kind of stuff that makes Huck drool on his keyboard. Pitt is most certainly a double digit favorite on a neutral against the Miners. You have to be getting at least 5 points the better of this number vs. Buffalo.

Matchup wise, Buffalo starts a QB making the second start of his career. And it'll be against a defense twice as good as the defense in El Paso minus the handjobs. Zach Maynard will have to make plays in the passing game because Buffalo certainly can't run on Pitt. If you run for less than 4 yards per against UTEP, the going won't be better against a great Pitt defense. Utep was ranked 105th against the run last year Pitt was 29th.

Without the benefit of a solid rushing attack, I expect some turnovers from the Buff's QB who'll be forced to play out of his comfort zone. Bet on a workman like cover for Pitt. Call it 31 to 14.

My one stars without write-ups.

Notre Dame -3 at Michigan. 1 unit.
Two programs on a different trend line. Small number. Give me the Irish 31 to 21.

Southern Miss-14.5 vs. UCF. 1 unit.
S. Miss has gobs of talent on offense. UCF doesn't have Kevin Smith.
45 to 17.

LA Tech +8 @ Navy.
Navy shot their wad last week. Tough for the sea men to get up for a directional Louisiana school. LA Tech has athletes on defense that can defend the option. 27 to 24 Navy.

Good luck on your wagers.
___________________

Also, check out the Phenomenal one over at Atomic Teeth or some lines he cares about.

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Comments

Good look to you too..

by doback on Sep 10, 2009 12:06 PM CDT reply actions

I’m a point guard. Good look has been ingrained.

by Trips Right on Sep 10, 2009 12:25 PM CDT reply actions

You lost me at “shot their wad” and “tough for the sea man.” Good thing it didn’t last long and was towards the end. You better than that, but not by much.

by eskimohorn on Sep 10, 2009 1:01 PM CDT reply actions

Navy doesn’t indulge in letdowns, buddy. They can’t afford to and they all know it. Navy, like all the service academies, win games because they work harder than the civvies. That means they don’t slack off from week-to-week. Sorry, but I got Navy over Tech.

by yojimbox on Sep 10, 2009 1:29 PM CDT reply actions

If anyone’s interested, here are my picks:

Georgia Tech (-5) over Clemson
Army (-1) over Duke
Minnesota (-3 1/2) over Air Force
Kansas (-12 /12) over UTEP
Oregon (-12) over Purdue

by yojimbox on Sep 10, 2009 1:31 PM CDT reply actions

You short change Navy by about 20 points. Enjoyed the rest of it.

by CloseToJumping on Sep 10, 2009 1:32 PM CDT reply actions

I’m not getting your Navy pick either. Auburn outgained La Tech 556-245 and had two back go over 100.

I understand that Navy has a different caliber of athlete, but I don’t see the percentages here.

by Scipio Tex on Sep 10, 2009 1:40 PM CDT reply actions

Clemson under tonight fellas. To the casa.

I’ll expound on my La Tech thoughts in a bit.

by Trips Right on Sep 10, 2009 1:46 PM CDT reply actions

Baylor made for a very nice weekend for me on week one.

I like your Pitt pick as well.

I am taking Houston +15 at Oklahoma State. I don’t think the Cowboys totally understand how to handle success, and Sumlin’s team can score on anyone.

by srr50 on Sep 10, 2009 1:47 PM CDT reply actions

I hate betting on the Stache so I lean towards buffalo.

I also like Houston going against Okie St. UH offense will have much more success against Okie St with a competent QB and Okie St will have a let down…. and win by 14.

I don’t like taking big favorites, esp on the road, UT would have to want to beat Wyoming by 40 and I’m not sure the fire will be there to do it.

by dick on Sep 10, 2009 2:04 PM CDT reply actions

There is a gambling law that states: “Divide units by 2, when Wannstache is involved.” Learn it. Live it.

by The General on Sep 10, 2009 2:06 PM CDT reply actions

Trips,
You post on cappingthegame.com?

by chitwood on Sep 10, 2009 2:09 PM CDT reply actions

Clearly you’re discounting the research of this Wyoming poster who is boldy predicting a victory.

Navy strikes me as an emotionally stable team that is going to show up every week, run the option for 300 yards and get back on the bus, win or lose. vegaskyle has this one on his card as do a lot of guys from that board so maybe they know something about LA Tech this isn’t obvious from last week’s boxscore. I don’t see the play either.

I prefer Clemson as the home dog + 5.5 tonight against Georgia Tech. Spiller is back this week behind an experienced OL and when Tech wins in this series it hasn’t been by much. Clemson’s formidable D line of Bowers, Sapp, and Jenkins should keep the triple option in check. I’m not big on Clemson’s rookie QB Parker going against a good Yellowjacket secondary but I’m not necessarily predicting a win either, just a cover.

by Vasherized on Sep 10, 2009 2:11 PM CDT reply actions

The Texas, La. Tech, and Notre Dame plays are dead on. Agree with srr50 that the Cougars have the ability to hang with Okie lite and cannot pass up on the 15 points.

For what it’s worth, there’s some gems out there this weekend:

Wash. St. (+2) vs. Hawaii – Wazzoo wasn’t terrible against Stanford (the cardinal will turn some heads this fall) and Hawaii struggled with Cent. Ark.

UAB (-12) vs. SMU – It took a 17 point 4th Q comeback by SMU to beat the Lumberjacks. Meanwhile, UAB handled Rice with ease. Seeing as how Rice and SMU are on about the same level this year, this could get ugly.

Tulsa (-17.5) @ New Mexico – New Mexico is just plain awful. Tulsa is grooming a lot of new starters, but had little trouble with Tulane and will have less trouble with the Lobos.

Oregon State (-7) @ UNLV – another road favorite. I hate those plays, but UNLV is not so bueno. The Rodgers brothers should run roughshod over the Runnin’ Rebs (they really still miss Augmon and LJ).

good luck to all

by mcpuddingpop on Sep 10, 2009 2:15 PM CDT reply actions

chit, not in a while, but my good buddy VegasKyle does. We cap these things together most every week. We actually went 11-5 collectively last week but posted 3 of the losses here. We’ll post all the games going forward.

by Trips Right on Sep 10, 2009 2:16 PM CDT reply actions

Vash, I like La Tech because I expect Dooley to get these kids ready to play assignment football. Navy won’t be able to just run it down Tech’s throat like Auburn did. Offensively, Tech has weapons and will score. Getting more than a TD is huge in game that’s likely to be played in the twenties. I’m also expecting a big letdown despite what people may think about the academies. These kids are human.

srr50, I like the Cougs, but I fully expect OSU to take the donut off the Louisville slugger offensively after playing a really good Georgia defense. If you can convince me UH can get to thirty, I’ll play it.

by Trips Right on Sep 10, 2009 2:21 PM CDT reply actions

puddingpop,

I like all of ’em alot and will do more research. A methodology of betting against outlandish sucktitude is usually solid the first few weeks of the season.

by Trips Right on Sep 10, 2009 2:24 PM CDT reply actions

I thought you guys capped together, as he has his picks up there and they are similar. Keep bringing the good stuff.

by chitwood on Sep 10, 2009 2:25 PM CDT reply actions

If Navy can move the ball on the road against Ohio State, why wouldn’t they be able to at home against Louisiana Tech?

Dissenting opinion stands. I like the rest of your card.

One more I added is UNC -5 @ UConn.

by Vasherized on Sep 10, 2009 2:34 PM CDT reply actions

Sorry, I know we’re supposed to be talking about the weekly picks here, but I had a question about one of your statements about the Texas game:

“Despite all the woes Texas has running the ball, the Oline is a pass protection juggernaut and may be one of the top two or three units in the country in this respect.”

Is this really true? I can’t help but think of the numerous times Colt has been popped. I can see it being because of him holding onto the ball for too long, but it’s hard to judge that.

On the other hand, the stats say we were middle of the pack last year: http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2008&div=4&rpt=IA_teamsacksallowed&site=org
26 sacks allowed in the season (compared to Tech and OU with 13 each, Florida Atlantic with 16, and Mizzou with 17).

They’re experienced, and they’re getting better, but personal viewing and the stats make me doubt we’ve got a juggernaut of a line.

by txindc on Sep 10, 2009 3:00 PM CDT reply actions

What is Vegas Kyle’s lock this week? Pin and needles I’m on.

by Phenomenal Smith on Sep 10, 2009 3:16 PM CDT reply actions

What are your picks, yoda?

by Trips Right on Sep 10, 2009 3:25 PM CDT reply actions

txindc—

I think part of what Trips has to be taking into account is how often we throw the ball compared to everyone else. Granted, Tech and OU were better last year, but they won’t be this year. How many sacks per attempt each team has seems like the way it should be measured. Steele does that, so maybe the stats are out there somewhere.

Trips—

If you want to make it interesting or have trouble reaching your guy, feel to let me know on La Tech. I’ll give the same points and there’s no cap for me on what you’d like to put down. We could meet for a beer next week if you still live in Houston and settle over a brewskie. I watched both teams play last weekend and see it differently. Auburn is terrible and La Tech is worse. Derek Dooley may have a bloodline, but Tech was something like 2-7-2 against the spread last year, and they look worse this season.

I also can’t believe you’re betting on Pornstedt. That’s like betting on Joe Tiller.

I really wish there was an easy way to bet online these days, as I like a lot of the games out there this weekend. The Tulsa matchup is the prettiest.

by CloseToJumping on Sep 10, 2009 3:25 PM CDT reply actions

CTJ, that’s cool we can do that. I still live in Houston.

I’ll shoot you an email.

by Trips Right on Sep 10, 2009 3:31 PM CDT reply actions

“Granted, Tech and OU were better last year”

I would have no problems adopting some of their, uh, “techniques”.

by nordberg on Sep 10, 2009 3:40 PM CDT reply actions

I prefer Clemson as the home dog + 5.5 tonight against Georgia Tech.

I might too Vash, except the game is in Atlanta. I took Ga. Tech at home.

by srr50 on Sep 10, 2009 3:56 PM CDT reply actions

“I prefer Clemson as the home dog + 5.5 tonight against Georgia Tech. Spiller is back this week behind an experienced OL and when Tech wins in this series it hasn’t been by much. Clemson’s formidable D line of Bowers, Sapp, and Jenkins should keep the triple option in check. I’m not big on Clemson’s rookie QB Parker going against a good Yellowjacket secondary but I’m not necessarily predicting a win either, just a cover.”

I’m pretty sure Ga Tech is the home team tonight… I think Clemson struggles with assignment football in Swinney’s debut against a very well-coached Tech team. I like Tech and Navy to cover easily, but then again I’ve always been a cheap date for the triple option.

by Ojnab Bob on Sep 10, 2009 3:58 PM CDT reply actions

Picks I do not make for soon parted are a fool and his money.

by Phenomenal Smith on Sep 10, 2009 4:04 PM CDT reply actions

As others have said, G.Tech is home tonight. Plus, I saw that Clemson-Middle Tennessee State game, and no way they win that game by 23 if MTS even bothered to cover kick-offs and punt returns. Clemson got an easy 14 from two returns for TDs, but otherwise they had issues moving the ball on MTS all day long and got most of their scores from home runs. G.Tech won’t have issues with that tonight.

by yojimbox on Sep 10, 2009 4:27 PM CDT reply actions

Ga Tech being the home team certainly changes that bet. I’m not sure which shady betting web site I frequent listed Clemson as the home team. It’s off the card but I still like the under.

Thanks for the correction, it probably saved me some cash.

by Vasherized on Sep 10, 2009 4:36 PM CDT reply actions

How many sacks per attempt each team has seems like the way it should be measured. Steele does that, so maybe the stats are out there somewhere.CloseToJumping

2008 Texas Team Stats

nationally in adjusted sacks allowed per pass attempt

by Huckleberry on Sep 10, 2009 4:46 PM CDT reply actions

Trips, which website do you get the lines from?

by kevwun on Sep 10, 2009 4:56 PM CDT reply actions

How many people on this board like UNC -4? I have to believe the talent disparity is tremendous.

by Groundhog Day on Sep 10, 2009 5:38 PM CDT reply actions

Also, UNLV over Oregon State is Phil Steele’s 4star bet of the week. He was right on the mark with Texas A&M as his four star last week.

by Groundhog Day on Sep 10, 2009 5:39 PM CDT reply actions

La Tech was down 13-10 in the Auburn red zone a few minutes into the 2nd half. They threw a pick inside the 10, Auburn threw a 93 yard TD soon thereafter to go up 20-10 and it all went downhill from there. Up until that point, La Tech was trying to win that game SU. Gus Malzahn will have the Auburn offense putting up a lot of yards this year bc that is what his offenses do. I don’t think it’s that unreasonable to think La Tech can lose by a TD or less to the mighty Midshipmen coming off their game against tOSU.

I do disagree with the Pitt bet still. You are reading into what Vegas is trying to tell you when in fact, Vegas is telling you something else. It’s telling you, Beware the Stache.

There are a lot of ridiculous ATS stats going for Clemson tonight against GT. First off, this is a line that looks to good to be true to a lot of people, ala the Washington line against LSU last week. The road team and/or underdog covers 80+% of the time in the past 15 years of this series. I’m pretty sure Dabo coached against GT last year so this isn’t his debut. The under is probably a better bet.

ctj, it is very easy to bet online still. a couple of great sites are no longer available but it’s still pretty easy. right now is the best time too since all the sites are doing their deposit bonuses for first NFL weekend.

by dick on Sep 10, 2009 6:03 PM CDT reply actions

dick—

Help a man out, then. If you don’t feel great about doing it publicly, send me something at castingaspersions@yahoo.com if you don’t mind.

by CloseToJumping on Sep 10, 2009 6:08 PM CDT reply actions

Did your parents name you Casting Aspersions? It all makes a little more sense now.

I’ll PM you on SB, assuming that’s your handle there too.

by dick on Sep 10, 2009 6:26 PM CDT reply actions

Sure, closetojumping is what I use there. That works. CastingAspersions would have been an awesome name.

by CloseToJumping on Sep 10, 2009 6:44 PM CDT reply actions

Just sent it to you, it’s pretty long but I added some good info from my own experiences. Those are awesome sites, once you get it all setup, you are golden. Good luck.

by dick on Sep 10, 2009 6:57 PM CDT reply actions

I hope we don’t get untracked, whatever that means. I hope we get on track.

by panchoclaus on Sep 10, 2009 8:33 PM CDT reply actions

Over 17.5 on the 2nd half O/U in the Titans/Pitt game looks decent. They scored 14 with two missed FGs in the first half. Now both teams have moved to the shotgun and seem to be moving the ball much easier, plus no Polomalu.

by dick on Sep 10, 2009 9:11 PM CDT reply actions

Kudos to dick for hooking me up with a place to go. Appreciate it.

by CloseToJumping on Sep 11, 2009 12:00 AM CDT reply actions

Vasherized, you had the Clem/GT game capped right regardless of location.

I’d also like to send a huge thanks to Michael Griffin for stripping Hines Ward inside the 5 yard line and saving those of us getting 6 tonight. And for that pick in the Rose Bowl, that play didn’t get the attention it deserved.

I really like Iowa -6 against ISU in what is sadly being called “Farm-ageddon”. The public is backing Iowa St (red alert when public backs an underdog) and Iowa will bounce back from their near loss to N. Iowa, who isn’t as bad as people think.

by dick on Sep 11, 2009 12:13 AM CDT reply actions

Not a problem, CTJ. People that use actual people bookies remind me of people that still go to an actual teller to do their banking. Online is the way to go.

by dick on Sep 11, 2009 12:14 AM CDT reply actions

I was on G Tech -5 twice last night, one bet on the side alone and one bet as a parlay with the over 45.

I was right there was going to be a lot of points scored and Tech would pound the freshman QB, but Tech quit after getting up 24-0 and almost lost in the end. That was a painful one to watch.

by johnnymac on Sep 11, 2009 8:46 AM CDT reply actions

i cant believe clemson came back last night. i was on them +5 and after that timeout/fieldgoalpunt, well, that was a special kind of bad

by huge on Sep 11, 2009 12:11 PM CDT reply actions

O.k. I’ll play. But you all should be paying me.

U of H +15.5 2
Vandy +14.5 1
Georgia -7 1
Wake Forest -3 2
Miss. St. +14 1
Oregon -12.5 2
Penn St. -28.5 2
Ohio St. +6.5 3
Tulane +18.5 1
UTEP +12.5 1

TCU, UNC and Navy are scare spreads that all should avoid.

by bartoncreek on Sep 11, 2009 4:59 PM CDT reply actions

I’m intrigued by your double digit dogs and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

by Trips Right on Sep 11, 2009 5:34 PM CDT reply actions

Value play w/ Stanford. A. Luck is the real deal. Great spring game a good numbers last week in his first college action. Zero coverage on this 6’ 3" 225 red shirt frosh. Lac 10 rookie of the year (you saw it first right here). Not putting them in my 3teamer just yet. I’ll go w/ trips

Pitt, UT & Irish

by 3teamer on Sep 12, 2009 9:02 AM CDT reply actions

I don’t know what a scare spread is, but I know that UNC is going to absolutely break UConn in half.

by CloseToJumping on Sep 12, 2009 10:13 AM CDT reply actions

Stanford playing an 8AM game for them will be tough.

UNC might not have the offense to break UConn in half.

by dick on Sep 12, 2009 11:01 AM CDT reply actions

Now if UConn gives away TDs to the UNC defense….

by dick on Sep 12, 2009 11:10 AM CDT reply actions

Never trust a Pac 10 team when they play the early morning game East. I refer you to Cal-Maryland last year. It takes them a quarter and a half to wake up.

by Scipio Tex on Sep 12, 2009 12:32 PM CDT reply actions

dick’s new handle should be Nostradick.

by sizzlechest on Sep 12, 2009 1:12 PM CDT reply actions

Scipio’s new handle should be FuckYouWakeForest.

by sizzlechest on Sep 12, 2009 1:15 PM CDT reply actions

Scipio, that was my thinking in the Wake game too but in this case, Stanford jumped out ready to play and Wake came back and won it in the end. Luck played well for his first road game in a tough situation.