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Texas 2009 = BYU 1984? Cross Your Fingers

It’s very easy to see that title and find it somewhat disconcerting or annoying. It kind of annoys me.

Star-divide

The differences between BYU in 1984 and Texas in 2009 are there at the surface, of course. Texas is a “have” and BYU in 1984 was a “have not”. We have the early season poll validation that they lacked and the big conference that gives us inherent credit that they lacked, no doubt.

That considered, there are some terrific potential parallels when you get through the surface and look at what we have. And frankly, having something akin to what unfolded for them 25 years ago is not a bad thing. It worked out ok for those guys.

BYU ended up winning the mythical national title in 1984 after beating a mediocre Michigan team in the Holiday Bowl that season. Until LSU’s 2007 joke of an MNC, that 1984 title was considered one of the biggest title question marks of all time. I am sure it was for good reason, although all I remember as a kid was enjoying the few times I got to see Robbie Bosco play. They opened the season against #3 Pitt while they were unranked (the AP only went to 20 at that time) and beat them 20-14. They pummeled a decent Baylor team the following week, pushing them well into the top 10. The run to the top had begun.

That season saw BYU win a battle of attrition that is rarely seen in the college ranks on that scale. Basically every major conference team suffered losses. There were simply no dominant teams and BYU held on to undefeated much longer than anyone else could. They ended up being rewarded for it and that national title remains undisputed, if unheralded. I hold out hope that Texas can meet the same fate this season.


What is the logic? I have a few reasons:

1) Like BYU in 84, Texas has to hang on to undefeated to have a prayer of playing for it all. The Big 12 is relatively weak. It isn’t a bottom tier BCS conference like the Big East or Big 10 this year. Let’s not get absurd. That typed, it certainly isn’t a conference that can simply count on its winner playing for it all or being guaranteed a good shot at it all. OU is down but not out. Tech is out. OSU is out (Rice actually outgained them). ATM and Baylor? Right. Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas are ok but not good. KSU, ISU, and CU are flat out bad. A loss in the conference to any team and the weak non-con combined with that kills a Texas shot at it all.

2) Like 1984, the rest of the nation is mediocre as well. Some conferences are better than others and some non-cons are better than others and teams that have either one of those advantages will get the benefit of the doubt over this Texas team. Florida, Bama, Cal, maybe even USC with one loss surpasses a one loss Texas. Texas will not get in with one loss barring amazing circumstances.

3) Again, similarly to BYU then, this Texas team is not impressive enough without an undefeated record to get enough credit for anything, really. This isn’t last year, whatever the reason. The OL is poor. McCoy looks closer to 2007 than 2008. The defense is better but a ways away from being excellent. The WRs and TEs could use Quan. The OC could use a retirement package. The secondary could use a pair of hands.

Everything sets up really well for Texas to play for it all. This team is good enough to win a series of close matchups against inferior opponents if it shows up every week. It is capable of undefeated with the right problems and injuries for opponents.

The only shot for winning the title, which is obviously different from playing for it, is a series of collapses by the competition. So far this year, we’ve seen a few important ones. USC today, BYU today, OSU last week. We need a few more. Someone needs to beat UF. Cal. Bama. Blah, blah, blah. There are many teams that could simply beat this Texas team. We need some good fortune to wind up playing Penn State or Boise State for it all. If we do, we can beat those teams, if not handily.

I hope this team does indeed show up every week. There are no gimmes for the way they play and they way their offense is coached. If we do show up every week, we should be ok hoping that everyone else falls down around us.

Maybe others see it differently. Perhaps there’s something to the notion that we’re just getting some air beneath our wings, adjusting to some of the roster losses, and getting in gear for a big run. That would be ok too, but I just don’t see a dominant team from Texas this season. I see the opportunity for a title, nonetheless.

Thoughts?

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I’m curious to see just how bad the flu affected Colt before deciding that we have peaked. The next two weeks should give us some idea.

He was 21-29, 317 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT against ULM. I would expect those kind of numbers in the next 2 games. As I’ve stated before, we don’t have an offensive system. We have an offense that is only as good as the preternatural QB allows it to be. The abomination of an offensive first half against Tech and Wyoming should end any argument otherwise.

by texoz on Sep 20, 2009 11:12 AM CDT reply actions  

I do not understand the secondary. It seems like we’ve been getting the guys we’ve wanted, but we are 4 years out from having a secondary with 4 or 5 NFL DBs. I am not sure if we have one in this group. All of the corners are spindly and have badd feet or hips.

Earl Thomas is great but probably too small for the NFL. Gideon is smart but can’t catch. The rest of the guys seem to have decent coverage skills but no one is a shut-down/big play guy like Jammer, Vasher, Ross, Huff, Griffin, Griffin… hell give me one Berry out here and I’ll be happy. Or a Chris Carter.

I catch myself wondering why Nolan Brewster isn’t on the field more. He makes some plays.

by panchoclaus on Sep 20, 2009 11:15 AM CDT reply actions  

weak…

i’m not worried about cal or bama

it hasn’t looked pretty but the potential is still there

by bas on Sep 20, 2009 11:17 AM CDT reply actions  

The abomination of an offensive first half against Tech and Wyoming should end any argument otherwise.

Why would that be the case?

CTJ – I enjoyed this. The distinction between winning it all and playing for it all is an important one. As I said to Scipio, I’d like to see us win a Big XII title. That would be novel.

by Sailor Ripley on Sep 20, 2009 11:23 AM CDT reply actions  

Colt is not worrisome – he’s completing nearly 70% of his passes, has 6 TDs to 4 Ints and almost 900 yards through three games with the stipluation that there’s a decent running game to add rushng TDs (well, we do have Tre Newton). Every coach in the country would take those numbers – except maybe Leach.

Factor in the altitude in Wyoming and the flu this week… he’ll be fine.

by panchoclaus on Sep 20, 2009 11:26 AM CDT reply actions  

When will Gideon officially join the coaching staff (he WILL be our DC one day under Muschamp) and leave the field? When (or if) Scott returns?

by Spawn of Cthulhu on Sep 20, 2009 11:28 AM CDT reply actions  

Panchoclaus,

Really? For starters…

Fuck it. I don’t have the energy.

by t1climb1 on Sep 20, 2009 11:28 AM CDT reply actions  

Good piece.

I can definitely see it going down that way. There is not really any single team that’s going to dominate everyone this year — certainly there are not 2. Yesterday notwithstanding — and that was a Monte Kiffin defense — Florida looks the closest to a real juggernaut. But, yeah, if we can get through the Big 12, which will NOT be easy, then we may find ourselves playing in a huge game with a deeply flawed team.

The Big 12 is way down. Baylor lost to UConn. ATM nearly lost to Utah State and definitely gave up 30 to them. Nebraska choked away a game that they should have won. OU lost to a BYU team that was absolutely killed by Florida State last night (speaking of which, I would not want to be a Sooner playing the U next week).

by ghostofagroundgame on Sep 20, 2009 11:42 AM CDT reply actions  

Any team that starts a dude named Robbie at quarterback should not be allowed to compete for a national championship.

by HenryJames on Sep 20, 2009 11:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Big 12 title or bust. If we happen to get into the MNC game, well that’s a nice bonus. But given how flawed this team is and how hard it is to win a national title, I’m not going spend too much time worrying about it.

by bigdukesix on Sep 20, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions  

Where is the Baylor = 1985 Bears article?

by ChrisApplewhite on Sep 20, 2009 12:00 PM CDT reply actions  

The Big 12 is way down. Baylor lost to UConn. ATM nearly lost to Utah State and definitely gave up 30 to them.

 Since when should be surprised about Baylor losing to anyone? And aggy lost to Arky St. last year. Beating Utah St., no matter how ugly it was, is a step up.

by bigdukesix on Sep 20, 2009 12:01 PM CDT reply actions  

bigdukesix —

I used to expect Baylor to lose to everyone. But it was balanced by expecting Colorado or Nebraska to beat almost everyone. To have a strong conference you either need to have 3 or 4 juggernauts or 7 or 8 very good teams. The Big 12 has neither this year.

by ghostofagroundgame on Sep 20, 2009 12:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Baylor clearly was unused to people taking it seriously. That, and the run defense was terrible.

by Bob in Houston on Sep 20, 2009 12:07 PM CDT reply actions  

You guys are fickle.

This team has a ton of weapons and that’s a damn good passing attack at Tech. Was I the only one that was never nervous last night? I was EXTREMELY pleased with our defense when we put our DB’s on the line of scrimmage. Our DB’s made some mistakes (Ch. Brown’s guess, for instance)… Colt played like crap. If Colt played like that last year, we would have lost.

This is a much better all around team than we had last year. We were all screaming for an MNC shot last year, and after 3 weeks and 3 comfortable wins, you guys are giving up on them? Fine.

I guess I was the only one that knew this was going to be a close game.

by texasengr on Sep 20, 2009 12:11 PM CDT reply actions  

To say the offensive line is “poor” may be the biggest understatement of all time. My hope is that we only lose one game this year, and that is optimistic.

by ransomstoddard on Sep 20, 2009 12:40 PM CDT reply actions  

This is a team that cannot run the ball against solid competition (certainly not as anything other than a change of pace) and doesn’t figure to be dominant in stopping the run either. That’s no way to win a championship in most years. So I’ll have to agree with the post.

by anonymous on Sep 20, 2009 12:41 PM CDT reply actions  

It’s disappointing that we’ve gone from “heck yeah, let’s dominantly run the table and show Florida what-fer in the MNC” to “How can Texas sneak its way in and get a lucky break to face a bad opponent?”

I like what our D is doing. Lack of depth at DT last night started to show itself towards the end of the game, but don’t forget that Tech (as opposed to our own Horns) has a pretty solid o-line and we were still able to get pressure on Potts. On the other hand, I’m confused by some of the busted coverage of our DBs. Thankfully our safeties are cleaning up pretty well, but they’re doing much too much of that for what should be an experienced group of corners at this point. The linebacker corps is a stable of studs that would get top dollar for their seed if they were steers. Can’t complain about that. The other good thing is that we’ve got depth and I feel like Muschamp can pick ‘em and play ’em til he finds what he likes for good. Oh and hey – we’re creating turnovers. Isn’t that novel?

Our o-line is a liability. We’ve got a bunch of dough boys up front who you’d be glad to be helped by at Ace Hardware, but at the same time you wouldn’t worry too much about the repercussions if you got caught shoplifting a 2×4. They pick up the wrong guys, don’t see the blitzes, and their zone blocking has no follow-through to open up the second level for the RBs. I wish we had a better idea of what the hell is happening here, because I can’t believe that Mack doesn’t see it too.

I was actually glad to hear that Colt had the flu. He looked sickly pink after the first series, and obviously had a lot of trouble hitting his receivers in stride, as well as in the chest. His running also looked relatively lazy. He’s got a great group of receivers around him who will fight like hell to get an extra yard, but again, our o-line is making things hard to Colt. Taylor Potts looked really comfortable in the pocket – no ballerina steps, not many times being flushed out. Colt was scrambling all over the place and looked like the first year starter, not Potts.

I hope the o-line gets their shit wrecked in practice this week and comes out looking with some more spit than this week. If Colt’s feeling better, maybe he can put some fire under their asses, too. Regardless, something’s got to give.

by TXinDC on Sep 20, 2009 1:58 PM CDT reply actions  

CTJ is right; in fact, this is exactly how DeLoss and Mack have designed our program, specifically in regard to scheduling. They have chosen to roll the dice on our NC prospects by lining up relatively soft non-conference schedules in the hopes that lots of attrition elsewhere + an undefeated Texas team will always = a berth in the NC game. Unlike other undefeated teams left on the outside looking in in past years (Auburn, Utah, Boise, et al.) … WE ARE TEXAS. (You think it’s just coincidence that Mack chose that cheesy bit of propaganda for this year’s slogan?) The BOMC gives us the juice that those other programs lack and will assure an undefeated Texas a place in a BCS Game (or so the theory goes). But there is no room for error—even in 2005, had we lost a game we almost certainly would’ve been left out in favor of Ohio State (had that been our loss), Penn State (whose only blemish was a last-second loss to tOSU), or West Virginia.

Of course, as a season ticket holder subjected to yet another year of shitty home games, and as a college football fan(atic) who relishes non-conference match-ups of traditional powers, this is profoundly irritating. But we might as well embrace it, because it won’t change under the current administration.

by cincinnatus on Sep 20, 2009 2:07 PM CDT reply actions  

I’d hate to be ransomstoddard. Hs life must be depressing.

by Bighornfan32 on Sep 20, 2009 2:09 PM CDT reply actions  

cincinnatus, I think you are underestimating the role of money in this deal. Now, there is no question that Mack would just as soon avoid home and homes against traditional powers, but Dodds still wants to be paid. Home and homes don’t feed the bulldog when they can’t count on a B12 schedule split evenly between home and road games.

I share your relative lack of interest in the schedule.

I think they know that the BOMC is irrelevant in this. Example: Mack is best known nationally for talking his way into the ’05 Rose Bowl, when we all know that the computers did it.

I agree, they can’t afford to lose, and that the scheduling is a factor. But it ain’t gonna change.

by Bob in Houston on Sep 20, 2009 2:17 PM CDT reply actions  

Guys calm down. As long as the coaching staff thinks we have Vince Young back there our offense will be like this. I gave up after the Ohio State game in ’06. They seem to think that we have Vince Young back there and not a slightly more athletic better version of Chris Simms. Our offense is what is and will be as long as Greg Davis is there. I love how Davis talks about adjusting his offense to fit his players when he actually does the exact opposite. It takes fluke circumstances for them to figure out what works. Take Nebraska in ’07 for the offense to figure out to give the ball to JC. Just by chance it takes them to figure out that Newton is the only back capable of running in this horrific running scheme.

Greg Davis is good against bad teams, but when we face a defense with a pulse we struggle. But I still think we can go undefeated with this defense. This defense is legit.

by PrimeTime on Sep 20, 2009 2:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks for the dialogue, guys.

texoz & TXinDC—

I am really not buying the “Colt had the flu” nonsense. The guy was around all week and practicing. That is weak Belmont bullshit, nothing more. The only way I buy the flu concept is if it a strain called “2007 QB Influenza”. Then I can understand it.

Spawn of Cthulhu—

I am with you on your sentiments in regard to Gideon. He’s flatly terrible as a starter for this defense.

HenryJames—

In my opinion, Robbie Bosco is perhaps the finest QB to ever play the game. The name adds to it for me.

ChrisApplewhite—

I am leaving the country later this week, partly to avoid having to read more of your headbang-against-the-wall rants about Greg Davis. I should have saved some of my similar posts from the beginning of this decade so you could save yourself some time and just repost those. I will be posting a Baylor update before I leave town, if possible. Especially now that I know you await it.

texasengr—

I was never nervous, myself. That considered, did you actually think Texas played well last night as you watched? You probably are the only one who thought it would be close. Tech sucks and it shouldn’t have been, but congratulations on the pregame handwringing, I guess.

cincinnatus & bob in houston—

If I could combine your posts, they’d basically be how I see it.

by CloseToJumping on Sep 20, 2009 2:54 PM CDT reply actions  

I was thinking the same thing earlier this week. I could easily see Florida and Alabama both losing one more, and someone like Boise or PSU winning out.

But I’m not ready to give up on this team yet. The defense is getting better. They imposed their will a few times last night. The offense usually takes a while for us, coming together for us OU week or the week after.

Oh, and Potts is going to be great for Tech. He took some hellacious hits last night, and delivered some beautiful passes against that pressure.

by batate on Sep 20, 2009 3:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Try not to overrated whatever country you go to because your bellhop is really good.

by ChrisApplewhite on Sep 20, 2009 3:38 PM CDT reply actions  

“I am leaving the country later this week”

This is what economists refer to as “exporting negative externalities.”

by BrickHorn on Sep 20, 2009 4:18 PM CDT reply actions  

CloseToJumping -

Of course I didn’t think Texas played well last night, but it’s been several years since a championship team went the entire season without one poor game. Texas played badly and still controlled the entire game. I think the doom and gloom is premature, that’s all I’m saying.

Pre-game hand wringing? Because I had a feeling that a rivalry game would be competitive? Look across the college football landscape – in conference rivals generally do not blow each other out, even when one is heavily favored.

Last year my blood pressure was high as fuck, with good reason, and we all felt we deserved a shot at Florida. This year, it’s been ugly (and still easy), and we’re acting like the sky is falling. I have confidence in Mack and Colt.

by texasengr on Sep 20, 2009 4:28 PM CDT reply actions  

A lot will happen over the next three weeks. If the team “clicks” during that time, all the speculation here today will have little resonance then.

by OldTimeHorn on Sep 20, 2009 4:34 PM CDT reply actions  

The OU game being in Dallas is a major factor in our non-conference scheduling — it’s why we try to have at least one team that gives us a 2 for 1 or one who is just willing to come here one time for the paycheck.

by srr50 on Sep 20, 2009 6:06 PM CDT reply actions  

I was a lot more impressed with Texas Tech than I was unimpressed with us. Maybe that’s just me. I know the offense struggled mightily in the first half, but I thought they got their shit together and played pretty well in the second half. I felt pretty good about the way we played as a team. Defense and special teams picked up the slack when the offense faltered and later in the game vice versa.

I was very impressed by our defense. I don’t know how comfortable I would have been in years past if you’d have told me we were only going to have 10 at the half and 34 for the game. The real let down there was the inexplicable prevent we went into that allowed Tech to score in just over two minutes. Not sure what the hell that was about but it certainly felt like it had Mack’s hands all over it.

I, along with many other people, have been wondering when aggy was going to turn things around and provide another real power in the South. I thought Tech was very fortunate last year. I’m beginning to believe dedfisher and his ilk – maybe this isn’t the same old Tech. They certainly showed a lot more heart than some previous Tech teams that have come to Austin. I’m also almost tempted to say that the majority of their best athletes are actually on the defensive side of the ball. Almost. That in of itself, is absolutely remarkable.

by flamingmonkeyass on Sep 20, 2009 9:42 PM CDT reply actions  

*Meant to include that I think Tech may be here for the long haul. That and an occassionaly potent oSu team could really spell long term struggles for a&m.

by flamingmonkeyass on Sep 20, 2009 9:44 PM CDT reply actions  

I was struck by the changing mood of the crowd as I watched from my seat in DKR. The initial electricity for what we all hoped would be a mudholing was replaced by a massive collective despondency as everyone realized that Tech gets a lot more out of their unheralded players than we get out of our blue chips. I attribute that to coaching, and it’s the reason I anxiously await the Muschamp era. I’m tired of listening to the fucking excuses.

by blueshorn on Sep 21, 2009 10:17 AM CDT reply actions  

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