Barking Bets: Week 4

I continue to fall farther and farther below the Mendoza line of betting (55%) and it's starting to get to me. After watching the Kentucky Wildcats choke away a cover and suffering two kick returns for TD's against me in different games during my gambling day, I proceeded to make my way to DKR Stadium from my tailgate local, stumbling drunk and hell bent on chasing my losses. Cell phone in hand and lines at the ready I made that call to my bookie, kissing cousins of the drunk dial and booty call. It went something like this.

Me: He **** it's **** what's the line on the Texas game?

My Guy: It's 21.5.

Me: 21.5, what the f*ck? It's 17.5 everywhere else.

My Guy: Well dude, I'm a bookie in Austin, what do you expect?

Me: Ok. Give me Texas for a ****, no f' that, give me Tech for a ****, no fuck that, give me the under.

My guy: So you want the under in the Texas game?

Me: What's the number?

My guy: 64.5

Me: Jayzus, 54.5. Texas might score that by themselves. Give me the over.

My guy: No 64.5, they're playing Tech dude.

Me: Oh. Yes, Tech. Give me the under. And throw a **** on Tech for me as well. A guy at my tailgate said McCoy has swine flu. Oh, and what the f*ck, strap 'em for a ****.

My guy: Got it, Tech and the under and parlay them. I have you minus **** for the day, right?

Me: F' you. Bye.

One typical Greg Davis called first half and the Tech side is in. One typical Muschamp first half and the under is a gimmee. One Dos Equis induced liquid courage parlay and I'm right back in the black. God loves old folks and fools I suppose. Walk softly and carry and armored tank division I always say.

As for the bets I posted. Meh. Hovered around the .500 mark with tough beats on SJSU and Navy. Reminiscent of many of Scipio's house guests, there were no backdoor covers for me on this Saturday. On to week 4 where I'm hoping the due factor kicks in. I'm also hoping to tread water long enough to allow Huck's supercomputer to spit out ticket winners. A collaboration of his math and my angles will be available next week. It should be a winning combo or we're bringing in a spider monkey with an oversized crayola and a big chief notebook.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +14 at Kansas Jayhawks: 2 units.
I had this game lined at 7 so I was happy to grab the extra TD which is certainly a product of USM just getting by and KU giving everyone on their schedule a prison pounding. The problem for KU is that they'll be catching a team that has had this game circled on their calendar for a while now. The Golden Eagles are also the most talented team KU has faced on both sides of the ball. You have to be concerned as a KU backer after watching the 'Hawks struggle to stop Duke. The Devils had nearly 400 yards of total offense and had nearly as many first downs as Kansas. Be sure to check with the Oread Boom Kings for Kansas Jayhawks specific questions and to see if there have been any more Jayhawk on Jayhawk Violence.

Southern Miss had to come from behind and shake off 3 turnovers to beat Virginia in an obvious look ahead spot beating the Cavs 37-34. Damion Fletcher was dominant on the ground leading an attack that netted over 200 yards. Austin Davis will need to find talented wideout DeAndre Brown and avoid costly turnovers to play with Kansas, so leaning on his backs and talented offensive line will be key to keeping it within the number. Huge value getting two TD's here. I like Kansas to win a close one. 35 to 30.

Fresno State Bulldogs +17 @ Cincinnati Bearcats: 2 units.
Pat Hill's anywhere anytime strategy hasn't paid early dividends with close losses at Wisconsin and a heart breaking shoot out against Boise State to open conference play. Still, the Bulldogs have the athletes to be competitive against the big boys and they seem to be getting better as a team. Positional evidence of this improvement can be seen in QB Ryan Colburn's play from week to week. Has he made mistakes, sure, but he's starting to make plays to his to uber-talented wideouts which seems to have opened things up for Fresno's explosive rushing attack. And therein lies the angle to this bet. FSU has a pretty damn balanced offense and they should be able to score a bunch against a Bearcat stop unit that has had the luxury of facing one dimensional offenses up until this point in the season.

Rutgers has zero QB play and Sean Canfield of Oregon State has excelled at hitting opposing linebacker right between the 5's. This has allowed an undermanned Bearcat defensive unit to load up the box and stop teams from running. They won't have that luxury in this game.

Look, Fresno State's run defense sucks out loud. I get that. But the Bulldogs catch a break with Cincy, a team that uses a ton of 4 and 5 wides to move the ball. FSU can play bend but don't break and hope to capitalize on mistakes and force field goals. Cincy is not the type of club that will just bludgeon defenses. And that's the key. That and getting two and a half TD's. I like the Bulldogs to score with Cincy. 42 to 31 UC.

1 unit plays

Miami Hurricanes +1 @ Virginia Tech Hokies:
When Tech has the ball they'll be playing right into the teeth of this athletic Miami front 7. Tyrod Taylor is an atrocious passer, so I can say with all confidence after watching Miami shut down the rushing attacks of G. Tech and Florida State, that the Hurricanes will find similar defensive success against the Hokie's one trick pony. Harris will make enough plays for the U to get the win. 24 to 17. Miami gets the paper.

Memphis Tigers -2.5 vs. Marshall Thundering Herd:
Memphis is a TD favorite here had they not crapped the bed against Ole Miss, a game they certainly could have won if HenryJames was playing QB for them. Tyler Bass has taken over at QB and had a terrific game last week against Tenn-Martin throwing for 4 TD's. Memphis running back Curtis Steele is nasty and receiver Duke Calhoun can finally show his wares with a capable QB. Memphis big 35 to 21.

TCU Horned Frogs +3 @ Clemson Tigers:
One team can throw and the other can't. I like the Horned Frogs to do enough in the air and win a low scoring game. 17 to 14 TCU.

Texas Longhorns -36 vs. UTEP Miners.
UTEP has been a huge disappointment this year losing their jihad game against Buffalo and being thoroughly dominated by Kansas. Texas should be able to find running room galore against a club that allowed 5 yards a carry against New Mexico State. Defensively for the Horns, I expect a feeding freenzy after giving up 3 second half TD's to Tech. Both sides of the ball get well for Texas. 55 to 7 Horns.

Good luck on your action.