Barking Bets: Week Six, Enter Huck's Supercomputer

Columbia may have some extremely heavy rain before and during the game tomorrow, with temperatures falling from around 60 to the upper 50s. I don’t know if this would affect your plays, but for readers putting down real money it’s something to consider.

That sure seems to be the general NU/MU consensus, doesn’t it? At least by national pundits and Husker fans.

Zac Lee, of course, has played in fewer Division I football games than has Blaine Gabbert. Before this year, he last threw a pass in anger in 2006. I suppose if you count sitting behind the inestimable Joe Ganz experienced. He’s experienced in much the same fashion as is Roberto Frankfurter. We do know one thing for certain about Lee: He has lost his shit in front of a hostile crowd in a big game before. We do not know the same about Gabbert.

I get the analysis, I really do, and obviously Huck’s computers have no innate biases. But most such write ups I’ve read reason from the conclusion that the Huskers are better than the Tigers because, after all, this is the Huskers and the Tigers. The VT game was impressive in some ways, but not so much if you look at context. First, of course, they lost. Second, of course, they couldn’t get in the endzone. Third, this VT rush defense isn’t quite on par with year’s past. Finally, while the Nebraska defense pitched a great game, Tyrod Taylor was atrocious. Was that all on the Blackshirts? Maybe, maybe not. Over on AT, I broke down the defensive stats that matter (BC’s term), and they just don’t support the idea that Nebraska has a dominant defense.

I also disagree with some of your points about Mizzou. This is the first balanced attack the Tigers have seen? Sure, it is easy to rail on Illinois now, but Illinois was 1st in the Big 10 in passing (I know, a tallest midget in the circus sort of thing) and 5th in rushing. Nevada was, and is, similarly balanced. You characterize the Tiger offense as struggling against bad defenses. There have been struggled (Nevada 2nd quarter, BG first half). I’m concerned about those, yes. But I would hardly say being the 16th ranked offense nationally is struggling. And I am certain this is the best Tiger defense I’ve seen since 1998 and Justin Smith.

I see the game as a pick ’em. I certainly could see Gabbert going wide eyed and Helu and the Huskers offense controlling the clock. I can also see the Huskers coming out in a dime defense and the Tigers running the ball all over them (most of the Tigers rushing problems have been based on teams willing to overload the run and make Gabbert beat them). I can also see Zac Lee dripping feces down his leg in the driving rain at Faurot.

In the end, it seems the world is willing to give an inordinantly large amount of credence to one nonconference game in which the Huskers competed but lost, against a maddeningly inconsistent team, led by a schizophrenic quarterback. Personally, I give as much weight to that game as I do to the Tigers defeating the Huskers 52 – 17 (10 if the Huskers don’t score on the final play of the game) at Lincoln last year. Sure, these are different teams. That Husker team was led by an unflappable senior quarterback at home…..

I like betting against the Cocks anytime they are giving double digits to an SEC foe.

I also disagree with some of your points about Mizzou. This is the first balanced attack the Tigers have seen? Sure, it is easy to rail on Illinois now, but Illinois was 1st in the Big 10 in passing (I know, a tallest midget in the circus sort of thing) and 5th in rushing. Nevada was, and is, similarly balanced. You characterize the Tiger offense as struggling against bad defenses. There have been struggled (Nevada 2nd quarter, BG first half). I’m concerned about those, yes. But I would hardly say being the 16th ranked offense nationally is struggling. And I am certain this is the best Tiger defense I’ve seen since 1998 and Justin Smith.

Nevada is 3rd nationally in adjusted total rushing per carry and 58th in adjusted total passing per attempt.

Illinois is 52nd and 50th, respectively.

Missouri is #22 in unadjusted total yards per game when only FBS opponents are included but that falls to 82nd in the nation when looking at adjusted yards per play.

It is definitely early in the year, so the stats can be misleading. But the only statement the numbers support, so far, is that Illinois is balanced. Mediocre and balanced, but balanced.

I’m shocked Gene is backing Mizzou on this one. I couldn’t be more shocked if I woke up with my head sewn to the carpet.

As for the balance argument. Illinois has benched Juice Williams, the QB that led them to a Rose bowl 3 short seasons ago, in favor of some flavor of the month. Nice balance, Zookie. I suspect a fist fight with the Fiji’s any day now. Look, Mizzou has had a nice run, but they’re making a step up in competition. They won’t be able to run on NU, which means Gabbert will have to get it done. NU will be able to run it on Mizzou, because, well, Nevada rushed it for 218.

Kentucky +10
Bama -5
Mich +8

Does anyone have an opinion on GA/Tenn? How is Tenn favored? Their qb play is absolutely awful and they have had trouble scoring points all year.

Helu may be out with the flu tomorrow. If so, Plano High grad Rex Burkhead will start.

Burkhead’s a nice back: a better receiver than Helu, though perhaps not as effective north-south when the defense is tired in the 2nd half (when Helu picks up the great majority of his yards). If for some reason Zac Lee goes down, or is ineffective, that will make two freshmen from Texas leading Nebraska’s effort: Cody Green (Dayton High) is the backup QB.

Zac Lee? I’ve only seen NU play once – their AD is a clown compared to the CU AD I guess – but Zac Lee looked exactly like I thought he’d look: a baseball player who hobbied at football. Big whoop.

I still don’t get the NU love. How could the huge gap in favor of Mizzou the last couple years swing so ardently in favor of NU? It seriously wasn’t even close. Talent-wise. Execution- wise. Watching those games was akin to watching Mizzou play Furman. You just felt sad for the little school. NU replaced its QB and WR, just like Mizzou, and not with a blue chipper and experienced playmakers. NU has Suh, which is a ton, but he was there last year too watching Mizzou score at will. Maybe I’m missing something – it wouldn’t be the first time – but the idea that NU is two TDs better than Mizzou baffles me. Anything can happen tomorrow, but I I’m bothered by how fast national perception is to jump on a former powerhouse when they have a little success. The N on the helmet doesn’t win you ballgames. We’re talking about the same N team that gave up 6 1/2 yards per play in conference play last year and nearly 9 yards per pass.

The last lock I recall on these pages was the predicted Illinois trouncing of Mizzou. Vegas Kyle came out for that one. Then he was killed, never to prognosticate again. I miss Vegas Kyle.

quit getting my hopes up

in the last years i have filled my california king waterbed with the tears i’ve cried from losses (too much self disclosure???)

NU 31 – MU 28

80% chance of rain for the whole game.

I’d like to point out that I’ve been drinking and am pretty unhappy with the number of runners the Cards have left on base and Carpenter’s performance….

NU will be able to run it on Mizzou, because, well, Nevada rushed it for 218.

Of course, Nevada runs it on everybody. They finished third in the country last year and just ran for 550 yards last week. Doesn’t anybody pay attention?

Zac Lee is an experienced QB and he can lean on a ferocious rushing attack that ran it for over 200 yards in Blacksburg against a great V. Tech seven.

What makes the V Tech 7 so great? If you base your numbers on this year’s stats, you probably know that V Tech is 67th in the country in stopping the run.

Okay, back to the Cardinals…..

Gene Claude, you may be right or wrong in your agreemances and deagreemances with the original post, but none of it is going to matter one way or other. The Huskers are going to beat your team. Now I don’t know how bad, but they will beat your team. Why? Well, I haven’t watched much of either team, but the Huskers, from what I have seen, are a decent team, and being an overall and all around decent team is a premium in this conference. It should earn them the right to a W just about every week in conference play.

Phen: Let’s face it, it’s not like NU had to go very far to become better than the likes of an MU. Just a few trips forward would have been enough. NU looks to be a physical team this year along its lines (that’s a premium in this conference). They’ve improved at QB, at least talent wise, and their RB has been running impressively thus far. I haven’t seen Mizzou at all this year, but I’m guessing that they can’t be better than the Husker team I have seen so far. Hey, I guess after Thursday night we will all see whether an ignorant guess from me can be better and more accurate than an informed and educated opinion from someone from Mizzou. I certainly am looking forward to the fruition of my ignorance.

Phenom,

I’m in your camp on this one. I have a sick to my gut feeling and can only recall winning once when I’ve felt like this. Maybe I’m missing something too.

If we win I’ll be overjoyed. If we lose I’ll not be suprised.

…off to bed…

The Huskers are going to beat your team. Now I don’t know how bad, but they will beat your team.

….

I haven’t seen Mizzou at all this year, but I’m guessing that they can’t be better than the Husker team I have seen so far.

I can’t argue with this.

Damn you Troy Glaus!

agreemances and deagreemances

Can’t argue with this, either.

I certainly am looking forward to the fruition of my ignorance.

Son, that happens everytime you post.

Barking Bets Pick History/Report Tool

This link will give you info on every football Barking Bet that’s been published.

Phenom- That is the guy that had these famous words on another post

’’What is inside of my packaging, in my opinion, are brilliant jewels and just about the most accurate predictions on the outcome of future events as you are likely to find anywhere."

Is there anything else that we can say?

Good thing Nebraska finally woke up. Some questionable playcalling most of the game but Gabbert finally paid for hitting ’Husker defenders in the hands all night.

Still, a scary cover to be thankful for. My computer off to a much better start this week hitting both 2-star plays from tonight’s game. The under was never in doubt.

It’s good to be the big swinging dicks in the gambling world.

Hey , easy on the low blows.

Miss St -2.5
UCLA +3.5
Mich St -3.5
Uconn +7
Arky +2.5
UF -7.5
Bama -4.5
Texas -32.5

Under 56 on KSU/Tech and Under 45.5 Lsu/UF

6-2 unit record for Trips. My system bounced back nicely with a 15-5 star record this week.

Good week for both.

TCU got backdoored or else they would have pushed 10 and given Trips a 6 unit winner week. Huck, I especially like your system for picking over/unders. Do you keep track of how well that does?

You had a nice week again, Trips. Three in a row.

“6-2 unit record for Trips. My system bounced back nicely with a 15-5 star record this week.

Good week for both."

nice going huck. need to talk to you about the computer.

look forward to next week.

It was an inordinately good week to be sure. The system even went 3-0 on NFL spread/total picks. Went 1-1 on the NFL moneyline with a .55 unit profit there. The NFL is, of course, a much tougher nut to crack.

Overall football picks went 18-5 based on stars on spread and total picks and 2-4 on the moneyline with a slight (0.10 unit) profit there. Up around 11.5 units on 29 units played for the week. I’m going to enjoy that one because of the total beating the system the week before. I figured it would take a long while to crawl out of that hole but it’s nearly back in the black for the year after one week.