You'll notice that the yardage and turnover stats are actually slightly in OU's favor. The overall prediction, though, is based purely on point results from games played. Basically the thing keeping us favored by the system is our defensive and special teams TDs this year. No shock there, of course.
I really, really hope that we were saving something. Common sense and historical trends tell me differently. Let's hope Muschamp's defense brings the pain.