BCS Forecast

I think if we win out we’ll be fine. We’re 4th despite horrible computer ratings which means that as the season wears on and our SOS gets stronger our computer rating will go up and we will move up in the BCS. Alabama and VT have nothing to gain in the computers. The only thing that gives me pause is the scenario where Florida and Alabama go undefeated and play in the SEC Championship in a relatively close game. In that case I think we are on the outside looking in because the loser wouldn’t lose enough ground in the human polls to compensate for our computer deficit. Mack would seriously lose his shit.

LS, are you saying that 13-0 Florida would play 12-1 Alabama again (or switch those records if you want) while 13-0 Texas gets left out? I really can’t imagine that happening.

Wow, that is actually a possibility. Most humans won’t want a rematch of the SEC championship for the MNC. But even if the humans, to a man, vote 1) SEC Winner 2) Texas 3) SEC Loser, if the computers have us at, say, 5 or 6 (behind Boise St., Va Tech, etc), and SEC Loser at 2, would the formula spit out an SEC rematch?

nordberg,
Yes, that’s exactly what I’m saying… because the loser of that game would still be in the top 4 in the human polls (unless they get blown out in the SEC championship) and most of the computers are still going to have those two SEC teams 1 and 2. The computers are going to hate us this year.

That’s a potential BCS doomsday scenario.

Hard to see a FL-Bama rematch if TX is undefeated (which would mean wins over OU, Mizzou, OK State and Kansas, plus a North rep that is likely to be Nebraska). In fact, I’ll go so far as to say “impossible”.

Texas’ improvement in the computers (on the above assumptions) + human bias against rematches + computer bias against losses = Texas in Pasadena if we have a goose-egg in the loss column as of Dec 31.

Florida and Bama are clearly the two best teams and I’m less than sanguine about Texas winning out.

My gut says the same thing, and our SOS and thus computer ranking will certainly improve. It is comforting that even though a couple of the computers hate us, a couple others already have us highly ranked.

But the computers don’t really have biases against losses if those losses are to highly ranked teams (see Va Tech, Oregon, LSU, etc.). And when you look at the teams the computers have ahead of us now, I wouldn’t say that it is impossible that the computers could still rank us as low as 7 or 8, even with an improved SOS at year end.

Here’s a possible computer ranking scenario:

1) SEC Winner
2) SEC Loser (only loss is to #1 team)
3) one loss Va Tech (by virtue of only loss to highly ranked team + other quality wins)
4) one loss Oregon or USC (see Va Tech reasoning)
5) one loss Iowa or Ohio St. (see Va Tech reasoning)
6) undefeated TCU
7) undefeated Cinci
8 ) Texas

I think its more likely that we would end up 4 or 5 in the computers. But the question is, if we are 2-2-5 in human and computers, but SEC Loser is 3-3-2, who has the best average?

“The only thing that gives me pause is the scenario where Florida and Alabama go undefeated and play in the SEC Championship in a relatively close game. In that case I think we are on the outside looking in because the loser wouldn’t lose enough ground in the human polls to compensate for our computer deficit. Mack would seriously lose his shit.”

As would the coach of the winner of the SECCG.

Let’s look at the scenario with some basic assumptions:
1) SEC Champ Gets unanimous #1 Harris, Coaches, and Computers
2) Texas get unanimous #2 in Harris and Coaches
3) SEC 1-loss Runner-up gets unanimous #3 in Harris and Coaches
4) SEC 1-loss team ends up with a #2 average in the computers (remember the best and worst ranking are thrown out)
5) Texas ends up with a #4 average in the computers.

If that were the case here’s what the BCS Numbers would look like:
1) SEC Champ BCS Score: 1.000
2a) Texas BCS Score: 0.933
2b) SEC Runner Up BCS Score: 0.933

I think that scenario is very generous for us because I don’t think there’s any way we average 4 in the computers and I think that a lot of humans would vote the SEC runner up #2 if the SEC Championship game were close. The key is if we were more than an average of two computer spots behind the runner up in that game, I don’t think there’s any way we pass them in the BCS.

1) SEC Winner
2) SEC Loser (only loss is to #1 team)
3) one loss Va Tech (by virtue of only loss to highly ranked team + other quality wins)
4) one loss Oregon or USC (see Va Tech reasoning)
5) one loss Iowa or Ohio St. (see Va Tech reasoning)
6) undefeated TCU
7) undefeated Cinci
8 ) Texas

In your scenario we’ll be at worst #4. We’ll be playing an extra game over most of those teams tks to the big x12 champ game. 13 games is bigger than 12. That matters to the comps.

This does speak to why if we lose, we are OUT of the national title hunt. We win and the odds are SUPER LOW for us to miss out.

Lets pretend that #4 is a real possibility and that Vtech & Florida & bama all win out.

Scenario #1. Bama beats Florida close.

This is better for us because the projections are for Florida to have a SOS around 50. While ours is projected at around 20. So in most comps we’d be AHEAD of florida. In that case we play.

Scenario #2. Florida beats Bama close. This would be bad b/c Bama has a projected top 10 sos. So let’s pretend it plays out with Florida #1. Bama#2. Vtech #3 & TX #4 in the comps and the polls have it Florida, TX, Bama, Vtech. Bama likely would NOT got to #4 because they already beat Vtech earlier in the year. That buffer could kill us.

Comps – Texas #4 – COaches – #2. Harris – #2 = 8/3 = Score of 2.67 place
Comps – Bama #2 – Coaches #3. Harris #3 8/3 = Score of 2.67 place.

That’s too close for comfort!!

And all it would take is for a few humans to keep FL and AL in the top two spots to break the tie.

some would certainly drop the loser past #5 on their ballots, too. One would think anyways. It would also depend on how impressive we’d look against the Big Xii north representative. We come out flat and only win by a FG vs us winning by 3 TD’s counts.

The hypotheticals in this thread make Kennedy conspiracy theorists shake their heads in disbelief. And Bama and Florida don’t look head and shoulders above Texas. That is being too close to it from this end. I’ve watched them all play a bunch this year and Bama is the same team as last year and UF is less dynamic. They are bunched at the top legitimately.

I agree with CTJ. I am in grad school at UF and my wife is an alum. To say the least, I have a little info on that program. There is plenty of hand wringing about the lack of passing game for the Gator faithful. It is not as bad as our running game, but they have serious concerns when they play a real team. UF fans know that LSU was highly overrated and they should have beaten Tenn a lot more than they did.

Bama worries me more than the Gators at this point, but they are not perfect either. There ability to line up and blow people off of the ball is what makes them dangerous. Both Bama and UF have terrific defenses, but are susceptible on offense. Neither are as far ahead of us as many believe.

CTJ,

The only hypothetical being discussed is not any more speculative than any one scenario would be at this point. If you’re basing it on what has happened so far and what remains on the schedule I would even say it’s the most likely single outcome at this stage (which would probably amount to a less than 10% chance of occurring). I did preface my comments with “the one scenario that gives me pause”. If we win out the vast majority of the scenarios that would occur will have us in the championship game… still interesting to understand the boarder cases.

I agree that Bama and Florida don’t look significantly ahead of Texas on the field. I think you will agree that observation doesn’t mean shit when it comes to the way the votes and computers play out.

there is no use in freaking out just yet about what may happen, we just need to keep winning. and to those who believe va tech will jump us, that is crazy, they will undoubtedly lay an egg this year again just like every other year that they play college football

The key difference between Bama/Florida and Texas is that they have offenses that will not betray their defense and they can execute at some functional level against another elite defense.
 
We give up 233 ypg and 15 ppg. Those numbers don’t marry and there’s a good reason for it.

LHS—

1) I made fun of the hypothesizing, lightly, but have no problems with it and I get it. Why else be a fan if you’re not going to debate these kinds of things that interest you?

2) I really don’t see how it could be viewed as the “single most likely outcome” at any point from this distance. At this point, the safest position in the “most likely outcome” debate would be that if there are 2 teams undefeated from the power conferences, they will play. I am not sure how it’s debatable that this is the most likely if the given is that 2 teams will be undefeated.

3) Do you guys factor at all the weight of a loss within the formula? Doesn’t that matter a bunch? Or has the formula changed? I don’t study the formula myself. I am interested in the human behavior side of things as the real possibilities start to unfold, of course.

The boost one gets from playing in a championship game lessens the blow that a team gets from a loss. ESPECIALLY if the loss is to another high quality/ high SOS team. Just ask OU circa 2003.

Brad Edwards on ESPN has us 4th behind Virginia Tech in his analysis but said if we beat OU, Mizzou, and OSU then we will be locked in behind Florida and Alabama for the rest of the season.

Scipio,

A great point. I’m starting to hold some concern that the disparity in play on the two sides of the ball is going to create a fracture on the team and coaching staff. It may not be a vocal fracture but if one end isn’t holding up it’s end of the bargain it’s going to create friction.

CTJ,

2) You are misrepresenting “single most likely outcome”.; willfully, if I know you at all. The scenario “2 teams undefeated from the power conferences” encompasses a bunch of different single outcomes. If you want to argue that one of those single outcomes is more likely that the one I outlined then I’d definitely listen to the reasons.

3) Losses don’t specifically matter… only how the humans and computers rank the teams. Losses against quality teams don’t seem to hurt as much with the computers as the humans.

Take a look at Vtech’s remaining Schedule…

They play one maybe 2 teams that will be ranked.

10/17 @ No. 19 Georgia Tech ESPN360.com 6:00 PM
10/29 North Carolina ESPN360.com 7:30 PM
11/05 @ East Carolina ESPN360.com 7:30 PM
11/14 @ Maryland TBA
11/21 North Carolina State TBA
11/28 @ Virginia TBA

Basically, after next weekend their comp score will be at its peak. After that, they crash back down to earth as they play the cellar dwellers of their conference. That schedule would be like us having already played OU, Mizzou & Okie State with only Iowa State, & Baylor & Colorado left on tap.

Is this another “fire” Greg Davis thread?

Looks like a BCS discssion to me, Donald.

Every thread on a Texas board/blog that doesn’t have a ’fire Greg davis" component should be deleted by the Moderator(s).

Does the ACC have a championship game?

It’s updated to include Anderson-Hester, which is out now. We moved back to #3 but there’s little doubt that including Wolfe would put us back down to #4 as it should be be much closer to Massey and Sagarin than the others that rate us highly.

C and D, I concur.
Why not?

I hope we make it to 6-0.

“Is this another "fire" Greg Davis thread?”

It should be. After last weekend the idea that we’re even a top 5 team is a stretch. Our defense is stellar, special teams is mostly stellar except for return coverage. Our offense is amazing just like broken bones heal in two weeks in Oklahoma.

It either speaks to the shittyness of college football in general this year or the complete bullshit that is the BCS ranking system that Florida or Texas are in the top 3.

The best parallel to the doomsday scenario above is 2006. Undefeated OHST and undefeated Michigan to close the season. Michigan did not immediately cede the number 2 slot in the AP, but did eventually in order to ensure that there wouldn’t be a rematch. Same thing would happen this year in a undefeated Florida vs undefeated Bama for the SEC title. The loser will be dropped far enough by voters to ensure that an undefeated Texas (or whoever else is left standing) is not left out in the cold.

“A great point. I’m starting to hold some concern that the disparity in play on the two sides of the ball is going to create a fracture on the team and coaching staff. It may not be a vocal fracture but if one end isn’t holding up it’s end of the bargain it’s going to create friction.”

To LonghornScott’s comment – I am probably speaking heresy here (clearly, frustration is talking) , but I frankly don’t see this as the worst of all outcomes. After nearly 12 years of this crap, and aside from a forceful removal, I don’t think anything other than full-scale meltdown within Mack’s precious ‘family atmosphere’ would precipitate any sort of meaningful change in the offensive coordinator position.

Mack Brown has a glaring, inexplicable blind spot where Greg Davis’ performance is concerned. He is willfully ignoring a gaping deficiency on his coaching staff, which puts the other components of the team in the unreasonable position of doing their jobs plus that of the offense. I don’t believe it’s a matter of not seeing the problem – it’s clearly a matter of personal affinity and stubbornness.

If Mack refuses to fix what (to even the casual observer) is clearly broken, then he deserves whatever consequence manifests – including the damage to his coaching reputation.

“Brad Edwards on ESPN has us 4th behind Virginia Tech in his analysis but said if we beat OU, Mizzou, and OSU then we will be locked in behind Florida and Alabama for the rest of the season.”

So in the span of 5 games against mostly crappy teams, Brad can already state that we aren’t moving ahead of an undefeated UF or Bama, no matter what happens.

I swear, it is like some of these numbnuts started watching college football this year.

How can anyone think the computers might get it right when they have fucked up so much in the past…I do not think it out of the realm of possibilty of a Fla/Bama matchup…

According to the JS computer Washington (3-3) > Texas (5-0). I don’t really care that it is early. If wins and losses don’t count for enough to rank those two in the correct order, then that is a shitty formula..

KM computer too. Unreal.

"Brad Edwards on ESPN has us 4th behind Virginia Tech in his analysis but said if we beat OU, Mizzou, and OSU then we will be locked in behind Florida and Alabama for the rest of the season."

I certainly hope he didn’t phrase it like that. If that kind of moronic thinking catches on then LonghornScott’s doomsday scenario will become much more likely.

Greg Davis and the offense is very much a legitimate topic within this thread.

All we have to do is look at last year to see how much of a benefit shiny numbers on offense can be to poll positioning and national reputation.

I’m with those who believe that if we win out, everything else will fall into place. But don’t underestimate how much erosion we could see if we keep grinding our gears for the rest of the season. And don’t underestimate how much voters will use their ballots to exercise grudges, whether it’s against coaches, programs, or the system itself.

I’m also with Levander. Some friction on this team might actually be beneficial. Our best years under this regime have been in the wake of deep dissatisfaction.

I don’t think you guys understand how shitty our schedule has been so far. We have played a Sun Belt quality schedule when you look at only wins and losses. Having a .500 team with a tough schedule ahead of us makes perfect sense at this point. It will work itself out, but our schedule is atrocious to this point.

I get that, Huckleberry, but I still think there are some major circuit malfunctions when a team that heas beat Idaho, USC, and Arizona but lost to Stanford, LSU, and Notre Dame is ranked ahead of a 5-0 team with two wins over Big12 opponents. Maybe I could agree that if Washington only had two losses to LSU and ND, a computer could possibly rank it ahead of a 5-0 team, but 3-3? Look at the computer disparity too – 3 of the computers rank us in the top 5, then those two rank us in the 17-21 range amidst 3-3 teams. I know it will work itself out but you still have to wonder how the computers are programmed and whether the algorithm is more biased than the human polls.

texastough – there’s no “bias” in a computer program, is there, in the sense of disparate treatment for similar results? In other words, if we had played Washington’s schedule — which is pretty damn tough — and been 3-3, then we’d be where they are in the computer outcomes.

As Huck says, the “bias” at this point (in certain, but not all, of the computer systems) comes from the terrible weakness in our schedule to date. For those computers where schedule matters that much, we still have to await the full run of opponents (OU, Mizzou, Kansas, etc) before we can see the total effect of losses vs schedule. Bet we finish above Washington, and no worse than 3rd in any computer, if we end up undefeated.

I don’t have to wonder at all. I know that the systems that have us low are actually the better computer systems. We are currently overrated by the less logical systems.

And look at the teams you mentioned that Washington has played. Idaho is 5-0 in their other games. Southern Cal is 4-0 in their other games. Arizona is 3-1 in their other games with the only loss to an undefeated Iowa squad. Washington has beaten 3 teams with a combined 12-1 record in their other games. Stanford is 3-2 in their other games. LSU is 4-1 in their other games (only loss to Florida). Notre Dame is 3-1 in their other games. The teams they’ve lost to are 10-4 in their other games. That means that Washington’s opponents so far are a combined 22-5 in their other games with two of those losses to undefeated Iowa and Florida teams.

Meanwhile, Louisiana-Monroe is 3-1 in their other games with wins over Texas Southern, Florida Atlantic, and Florida International and a loss to Arizona St. Wyoming is 4-1 with wins over Weber St., UNLV, Florida Atlantic, and New Mexico and a loss to Colorado. So they are 4-0 in outside games because Colorado is in our opponent population. Every win is over a shit team. The combined record of Wyoming’s 4 victims against other D1 opponents? 1-12. Texas Tech is 4-1 in their other games with a loss to Houston and wins over scrubs. The same analysis of Tech’s victims gives a record against other D1 opponents of 2-11 with those two wins being Kansas State’s over Louisiana-Lafayette and Iowa State. UTEP is 2-3 in other games with a good win over Houston. Colorado is 0-3 in outside games (Wyoming game isn’t included). That makes our opponents a combined 13-8 in outside games.

So, Washington’s opponents are 22-5 with losses to Florida and Iowa. Ours are 13-8 with the best win being over Houston and losses to the likes of Colorado St., Toledo, Arizona St., Buffalo, and Memphis.

The thought that Sagarin and Massey’s ratings are unduly biased is absurd.

bama would skullfuck us. Its a travesty either florida or bama wont make it to the title game but maybe with 1 loss. who knows..