Forecasting The Big 12 South- Nov. 2

by TaylorTRoom on Nov 2, 2009 8:53 PM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

Texas and TAMU had the big jumps in the Sagarin Predictor model that drives this analysis. Texas is now listed as one of the nation's top 3 teams, and would be a .5 point dog to Florida and a .5 point favorite over Bama. TAMU is a solid, middle of the road Big 12 squad, which is much better than they looked three weeks ago.

Texas has the inside track for the Big 12 Championship game, and looks to be a 23 point favorite at BU, a 20 point favorite hosting KU, and a 15 point favorite at TAMU. For comparison, in 2006, going into the last three games, we were 17 point favorites hosting OSU, 15 point favorites at KSU, and 13 point favorites hosting TAMU.

TAMU looks like they will be bowl eligible, needing a collapse against both CU and BU to not be so. BU isn't going to make it, although they could screw up TAMU's season.

The OSU/TT game in two weeks will go a long ways towards deciding their respective bowl fates, and looks to be a very even game.

The OU/NU game is huge. NU looks like the North's strongst team, but will have a hard time winning the North with a loss to OU. However, if OU loses, it will be great because...OU will have lost.

Texas	92.62	Sag	Pts	Odds
ULM	11	64.53	-31.59	W	Expected (sum)	11.74
@Wyo	8	59.47	-29.65	W	Exp. B12 rec	7.77
TT	3	82.24	-13.88	W	root odds	0.93
UTEP	12	58.99	-37.13	W
CU	10	64.99	-31.13	W	Bowl Eligible Odds	100.00%
OU	1	87.80	-4.82	W	10 win odds	2.38%
@Mizzou	5	74.14	-14.98	W	11 win odds	21.46%
@OSU	2	78.78	-10.34	W	12 win odds	76.16%
UCF	9	66.15	-29.97	0.97
@BU	7	66.47	-22.65	0.95
KU	6	75.88	-20.24	0.95
@TAMU	4	74.30	-14.82	0.87

OU	87.80
BYU	7	77.32	-13.98	L	Expected (sum)	7.765
Idaho St	12	35.93	-55.37	W	Exp. B12 rec	5.765
Tulsa	10	67.46	-23.84	W	root odds	0.67
@Mia	3	82.32	-1.98	L
BU	11	66.47	-24.83	W	Bowl Eligible Odds	98.79%
Texas	1	92.62	4.82	L	10 win odds	0.00%
@KU	5	75.88	-8.42	W	11 win odds	0.00%
KSU	9	71.94	-19.36	W	12 win odds	0.00%
@NU	2	83.96	-0.34	0.505
TAMU	8	74.30	-17.00	0.92
@tt	4	82.24	-2.06	0.53
OSU	6	78.78	-12.52	0.81

OSU	78.78
UGA	7	75.52	-6.76	W	Expected (sum)	8.27
Hou	6	76.51	-5.77	L	Exp. B12 rec	5.27
Rice	12	47.18	-35.10	W	root odds	0.49
Gram	11	49.94	-32.34	W
@TAMU	4	74.30	-0.98	W	Bowl Eligible Odds	100.00%
Mizzou	8	74.14	-8.14	W	10 win odds	5.77%
@BU	9	66.47	-8.81	W	11 win odds	0.00%
Texas	2	92.62	10.34	L	12 win odds	0.00%
@ISU	5	71.22	-4.06	0.66
TT	3	82.24	-0.04	0.5
CU	10	64.99	-17.29	0.92
@OU	1	87.80	12.52	0.19

TT	82.24
ND	10	53.39	-32.35	W	Expected (sum)	7.87
Rice	12	47.18	-38.56	W	Exp. B12 rec	4.87
@Texas	1	92.62	13.88	L	root odds	0.60
@Hou	5	76.51	-2.23	L
UNM	11	49.06	-36.68	W	Bowl Eligible Odds	100.00%
KSU	8	71.94	-13.80	W	10 win odds	0.00%
@NU	2	83.96	5.22	W	11 win odds	0.00%
TAMU	7	74.30	-11.44	L	12 win odds	0.00%
KU	6	75.88	-9.86	W
@OSU	4	78.78	0.04	0.5
OU	3	87.80	2.06	0.47
@BU	9	66.47	-15.77	0.9

TAMU	74.30
UNM	12	49.06	-28.74	W	Expected (sum)	6.72
Utah St	10	65.48	-12.32	W	Exp. B12 rec	3.72
UAB	11	59.60	-18.20	W	root odds	0.28
Ark	4	79.88	5.58	L
OSU	6	78.78	0.98	L	Bowl Eligible Odds	72.74%
@KSU	5	71.94	1.14	L	10 win odds	0.00%
@TT	3	82.24	11.44	W	11 win odds	0.00%
ISU	8	71.22	-6.58	W	12 win odds	0
@CU	7	64.99	-5.81	0.73
@OU	1	87.80	17.00	0.08
BU	9	66.47	-11.33	0.78
Texas	2	92.62	14.82	0.13

BU	66.47
@WF	7	73.11	10.14	W	Expected (sum)	3.59
Conn	10	74.08	4.11	L	Exp. B12 rec	0.59
NWSt	12	38.09	-31.88	W	root odds	0.19
Kent St	11	63.71	-6.26	W
@OU	1	87.80	24.83	L	Bowl Eligible Odds	2.32%
@ISU	9	71.22	8.25	L	10 win odds	0.00%
OSU	8	78.78	8.81	L	11 win odds	0.00%
NU	4	83.96	13.99	L	12 win odds	0.00%
@Mizzou	6	74.14	11.17	0.22
Texas	2	92.62	22.65	0.05
@TAMU	5	74.30	11.33	0.22
TT	3	82.24	15.77	0.1

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Comments

OU wins by 30. Pelini’s cupboard is just bare on offense, with a freshman quarterback leading some guys from the drive-thru at the Lincoln Wendy’s.

The good news, though, is that Suh and Crick may show us how deep OU is at quarterback.

by parlin on Nov 2, 2009 9:25 PM CST reply actions

To say A&M a middle of the road Big 12 this year means they suck the big one. I think they are better than that. KSU wins the north or is given it by default b/c Neb is that bad, but im not over looking the Aggies like I should.

by Mysterious Package on Nov 2, 2009 9:42 PM CST reply actions

One more thing about the chart- the number next to opponent names represents the game’s rank in difficulty (based on predicted point differential) on a team’s schedule, from hardest to easiest. You see that Texas has played its 3 toughest opponents on the schedule, with #4 being at TAMU (slightly ahead of Mizzou). OU has lost to #1 and #3, and still has #2 (NU) and #4 (@TT). TAMU has its two most difficult games coming up, and beat #3 soundly, but was crushed by #4 and #%, so who knows what to make of them? Poor Baylor was only expected to beat Kent State and NW State (I recognize they were rated higher earlier in the season).

by TaylorTRoom on Nov 3, 2009 5:51 AM CST reply actions

NU can lose to OU and still take the north. Though both NU and KSt have 2 conference losses today, NU has played one less conference game than KSt. So if NU loses to OU but beats @KU, KSt, and @CU, they will have the same number of conference losses but NU will own the head to head over KSt. It’s a tall order for NU, but the head to head vs. KSt looms larger than the OU game.

by triplehorn on Nov 3, 2009 8:41 AM CST reply actions