How the Texas Longhorns coaches measure the running game

I think moving the goal posts fits here.

I think it is goddammed retarded.

So does the Joker:

Nobody panics when things go according to plan, even if the plan is horrifying. If I tell the press that tomorrow a gangbanger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics. Because it’s all part of the plan.

Whoa. I hope yall keep this guy forever. Maybe I’ll never have to watch Texas run for 300 yards on us again.

But what if it took us 100 carries to get those 300 yards? You can see the genius of our system.

So basically, the sole purpose of rushing is to keep drives alive.

Therefore, it’s worthless, unless you just assume that the passing game is working.

I’m just glad that we made the rushing game our top offseason priority, and eight games into the season we’re pleased with 32 carries for 99 yards.

The soft bigotry of low expectations.

Although I realize that criticizing the Davis paradigm is a fruitless endeavor, the difference in culture & expectations between our offense and defense is nothing short of astonishing.

What’s wrong with that criteria if we know our strength is the passing game? Or are you guys saying the percentage should be much higher than that?

Isn’t that exactly the criteria Scipio uses (or another barker) uses to evaluate the running game? While not the highest of bars, I don’t see the reason for all the worry.

Personally, I think no statistic should be used as the standard. I think the standard should be every lineman makes their block, any fakes/misdirection is carried out convincingly, and the runningback finds the correct hole. Those are things that are task oriented and directly attributable to the play of the team. In some cases in reality a 3 yd run may be awesome and a 20 yd run may be below standard. Attention needs to be paid to execution not numbers.

The ‘consistent run’ stat is a much weaker version of the successful play stat used a lot in the nfl. the successful play stat measures whether the play gained at least 60% of the yards to first down on 1st and 2nd down, or a first down on 3rd and 4th. For example on 1st and 10, you need 6 yards, while on 2nd and 5 you only need 3.

this is a superior stat since the consistent run stat indicates that a 4 yard run on 2nd and 10 is good, while a 3 yard gain on 2nd and 4 is not. in truth, a 4 yard gain in first isnt terrible, but its hard to consider that a success (especially when your bar is 60% successful plays).

It is nice to see a better approach than simple yards. Yards, ypc and ypg are just worthless stats. remember that situational statistics are the very relevant in football since the objectives of most playcalls is not to gross up ypc, but to get a first down, or set up a situation where a first down is more likely.

“…the difference in culture & expectations between our offense and defense is nothing short of astonishing.”

The culture & expectations on offense are a direct result of the culture & expectations on defense. This team is lead by the defense, and knows the defense can win a game all by itself. Why take chances on offense will be a consistent theme from here on out, just as it has been most of the season. Did you guys like the OU game? That is exactly how we’ll play against UF/UA for all of the marbles.

I think Greg Davis is consistently an idiot.

We used to try to achieve “explosive” runs.

Now it’s “4 yard runs 60% of the time”.

Uhh ….

“The culture & expectations on offense are a direct result of the culture & expectations on defense. This team is lead by the defense, and knows the defense can win a game all by itself.”

So if the defense weren’t so badass, we’d have a running game?

So what happens when they reach their 60% goal? Devote more time to passing drills? Pizza party for players and their girlfriends?

It’s this week’s rationalization of a flawed system. Notice the lack of talk about explosive plays? It’s because we average about 3-4 per game. So we talk about consistencyness. If we can run for 3 yards on every play and we have four downs to get there, who can stop us?

But it really doesn’t matter.

The offense will score enough points for our defense and special teams to continue winning games for us. At times Colt will look great and our WRs will make plays. He might even pick up a Heisman on the way thanks to the fact we’ll play only two very good teams this year and we actually have some weapons at WR now other than Jordan Shipley.

At other times, when we play a great defense like OU’s, Florida’s, Alabama’s, or the surging fightin’ Texas Aggies; we won’t look so good. Beating the shit out of average defenses breeds complacency with evaluating schemes and measuring their true effectiveness. Thus the constant shuffle with personnel at RB and WR, closetojumping’s six figure therapy bills, and ChrisApplewhite’s constantly swollen knuckles.

Yet I am perfectly fine with this. Florida and Bama have their own offensive issues as well. We still have the most complete team out there and have a slip-and-slide path to Pasadena.

I am Buddha in a ten foot cell, bowing East to Muschamp, awaiting salvation on January 7.

Greg Davis gives me the ‘consistent runs’..

“60% of the time, it works every time”…

Haha, on another board someone referred to it as our “sex panther” offense. I like that.

“The culture & expectations on offense are a direct result of the culture & expectations on defense.”

That was my point – an expectation of excellence exists only one side of the ball, and it has highlighted the lack of same on the other side.

“So what happens when they reach their 60% goal? Devote more time to passing drills? Pizza party for players and their girlfriends?”

Vondrell, Fozzy, Cody, and Trey will all share the Outstanding Running Back award at the team banquet in December. None of them will have rushed for 400 yards on the season. It will be a lovely day in the neighborhood.

It is nice to see a better approach than simple yards. Yards, ypc and ypg are just worthless stats. remember that situational statistics are the very relevant in football since the objectives of most playcalls is not to gross up ypc, but to get a first down, or set up a situation where a first down is more likely.

YPC is not worthless. Not nearly the most important, but not worthless. And your logic would seem to extend to yards per attempt, which is even more incorrect.

The successful play stat would probably be highly correlated to winning as well, but it’s not tracked and posted anywhere online for all teams. It’s hard enough to compile every basic boxscore, I’m not about to start trying to track all the play-by-plays.

vomit

I’ve always got a kick out of how Texas fans tell me how much better guy Mack Brown is than Mike Leach, but their respective resumes have never seemed to indicate that to me. They really seem that much different in the big picture except Mack has what it takes to get to the top. Both are offensive guys too stubborn to acknowledge their own deficiences. Mack has some kind of blood-brother relationship with Davis and Leach won’t run the ball. However, Mack understands what it takes to stay on top. He’s a better politician and a cutthroat motherfucker to most outside of Davis. Leach’s weakness as a coach is loyalty. He’s always rewarded the guy’s who played a role in getting him to where he is and rode out the storm with them. Kind of like Mack with Davis. However, this policy is flawed in coaching because your best friends are not always your best business partners. Mack has seems to know this, which is baffling as to how he’s stuck with Davis all these years. Maybe it’s because he knows Davis is a guy he can push around and not sit directly over the flame. That’s the only thing that has made sense to me over the years because he’s quickly slit the throat of every DC he’s had whose talent underperformed results.

Will Muschamp downplaying near perfection post game: “Overall, played well, but certainly room for improvement. While I’m happy with the results we could’ve been much better. We need some work in key areas.”

Greg Davis painting a bag of shit post game: "On surface the run game looks bad. However, if you look at this specifically through my narrow kaleidoscope of bullshit and rhetorical duct tape you’ll see that it has actually exceeded expectations. There really isn’t much to pay attention to in that area.

Mack Brown on Greg Davis post game: Broyles Award, 100,000 coaches in the stands, explosi … uh … points. Other stuff.

This is on the right path, but, as usual, only half-prepared by the offensive coaching staff.

Four yards doesn’t necessarily a good run make. Is a four yard run a success on a draw play on 2nd and 18? No, but it’s going to be practically given to you, and the coaches will chalk that up as a success, just like Greg Davis was exhilarated by Colt taking a sack on third down when OSU rushed three. What was it I heard the offensive line called earlier this season? “Pass-protection juggernaut”? Can we be “Four yard draw on 3rd and 23 juggernauts” now?

They probably shouldn’t even look at plays like that when determining success. Maybe they should say: 40% of the yardage required for a 1st down (or TD) on 1st and 2nd down, a first down, or a touchdown. Therefore, you can’t get a success for running 4 yards on 3rd and 5. They should also keep it at integer numbers, so that a half-yard run on 2nd and goal from the one isn’t a success (you still end up at the one, so no gain).

If he said that we should shoot for a 4.0 yard per play mean, not average; then I’d be happy. This no.

“Leach’s weakness as a coach is loyalty.”

That’s his only weakness? Sounds like a 25 year old going to their first real interview. Um… well… my weaknesses are that I’m too much of a perfectionist.

Vomit.

TangentOrange, I think you meant to say Median.

Loyalty is a fucking weakness, if you’re in the coaching profession. I mean, yeah, it’s something you say in the interview and shit to get better contract terms. But, if you really mean that, then you’re headed up a dead end career path. You don’t feel that way? Maybe I’m a heartless motherfucker and that’s how I’ve gotten to where I’m at.

My point was he has other weaknesses.

The next step would be to just stop acknowledging any statistics when it comes to rushing.

The measurement might as well just be bright-side analogies.

Try this out: The bad news is that our running game often gets mauled by bears. The good news is that those bears rarely have aids.

Or: I got raped in a park. However, I didn’t get raped in a prison. Parks are nicer than prisons.

Oh yeah, but loyalty is the one that hurts my football team the most. Believe me, Art, you don’t know what it feels like when the TV announcers label Cody Hawkins an efficient game manager against your defense.

t1climb1:

Thank you, I did mean Median.

The good news is that Cody Hawkins isn’t an AIDS bear.

What’s interesting to me, Art, is how great of a guy Spike is perceived as and he canned way more people over the years than Leach ever has.

Another question? I can’t remember how many DCs I’ve seen Mack go through since Leach has been around, but haven’t there been like 3 or 4 in the last 5 years. Muschamp/Akina/Chizik/Some other dude before that….that’s all I can think of off the top of my head.

Carl Reese
Greg Robinson
Gene Chizik
Duane Akina/Larry MacDuff
Muschamp

Fucking 5. I’ll be damned. If Ruff doesn’t work out, we’ll see what kind of coach Leach really is.

Robinson and Chizik left for head coaching gigs. Carl Reese retired and I think a lot of people felt that was a few years too late. Akina only got demoted…which was a brilliant move by Mack, but hardly cutthroat. Muschamp is already HC-in-waiting after just one year. (Not saying I don’t like the move, but if you want to call Mack cutthroat I don’t think that kind of move falls into the category.) Mack is a good guy not necessarily because of loyalty and Leach is far from a nice guy because of his. Mack genuinely seems like ‘good people’…Leach, not so much…

I’ve met Leach. He’s a nice guy. Mack probably is to. But Ricky, nice guys still have to be able to make tough decisions. Mack has a proven track record of doing this, while I’m not so sure Leach has.

Our chief flaw is loyalty…loyalty and obstinance…obstinance and loyalty…Our two flaws are obstinance and loyalty… and a tendency to whine about officials… Our THREE flaws are obstinance, loyalty and whining… and an almost fanatical devotion to our fat little girlfriends…

“They [don’t] really seem that much different in the big picture except Mack has what it takes to get to the top.”

That seems like an important difference to me.

As for the stats, they are all just measures – I don’t see how they reflect approach. On the other hand, if they cause the staff to be complacent about the state of the running game, they are dangerous.

Well, fuck yeah, it’s important in the hardware sense.

Well, Mack kept Reese on WAY too long—6 years, including the two horse-fuckings by OU and other debacles. He should have been run off at halftime of the 2000 RRS.

Hmmm…maybe that gives me some hope that Leach will learn something. Although, I think Ruff’s doing a decent job right now with what he has to work with.

I wonder if Leach’s problem is loyalty — or he just isn’t invested in that side of the ball. How much practice time is spent dealing with an offense other than Leach’s? How physical are the practices for defense?

As I have said before, Leach is an interesting cat, but an odd one. He doesn’t value situational points (see turning down the field goal at Houston which would have given him an 8-point lead, on the road) he certainly doesn’t value time outs, and he doesn’t value field position.

I don’t think he values defense either.

Well, that’s a problem too, but don’t hire your friends, so at least if it doesn’t work out, it’s easier to fire them.

I should also add that it’s not that he doesn’t value defense, or else he wouldn’t have made the switch from Sentencich mid-season. It’s more his job searches have been a little narrow in scope. Anytime you hire a DC and Cal fans show up saying, “You actually hired that fucking guy!!!”, well, it’s just not a good feeling.

I would drown a kitten for Leach running our O

I would drown Davis for a kitten running our O.

Muschamp should hire Holgerson when he takes over.

Greg Davis = winning in spite of Greg Davis

If only GD would apply some kind, any kind, of consistent or successful pass criteria to the bubble screen, maybe we’d be getting somewhere. I can’t imagine any it would possibly meet other than consistently successfully giving me chest pains and making me lose my voice screaming at the tv.

I can’t believe I’m going to do this, but I have to defend Corch Davis. Or, more accurately, defend the basic principle he’s applying.

Because football is quantized into 10-yard increments, the correlation between YPP and success is not 1:1. Consider the following extreme statistical situations.

Team A has an offense built for regular “explosive plays,” but is inconsistent. 25% of its plays from scrimmage net 40 yards and the remaining 75% average out to 2 yards per play. This yields an average of 11.5 YPP.

Team B has a boring offense built on running between the tackles. 100% of Team B’s plays net 4.0 yards, resulting in (obviously) 4.0 YPP.

Which offense is more successful, Team A with 11.5 YPP or Team B with 4.0 YPP? Team B, of course. At 4.0 yards on every single play from scrimmage, Team B is guaranteed a touchdown on every single drive. Team A, on the other hand, is very likely to see its drives fizzle out, often before they reach field goal range. This is true even on drives where Team A grabs a 40-yard gain.

Obviously, the two statistical sets I chose are idealized and practically impossible. And I ignored pace (Team B, because of its offense, might have more drives per game which could compensate for its lower points per drive number). However, it illustrates the point that consistent yardage can be more important than high average yardage. In practice, however, the two are usually very highly correlated.

Akina only got demoted…which was a brilliant move by Mack, but hardly cutthroat

I agree. That was brilliant to demote the guy everyone with half a brain knew he shouldn’t have promoted in the first place.

This reminds of the useless bullshit statistics that echeese tries to spew out. Has anyone actually seen echeese and Davis in the same room together?

Echeese engaged in an argument recently on OB about Roy Williams claiming his 19 yards per catch stat with Dallas was a sign of greatness.

Of course he failed to mention he only has like 7 catches and 20 dropped balls.

//Huckleberry said:
YPC is not worthless. Not nearly the most important, but not worthless. And your logic would seem to extend to yards per attempt, which is even more incorrect.

The successful play stat would probably be highly correlated to winning as well, but it’s not tracked and posted anywhere online for all teams. It’s hard enough to compile every basic boxscore, I’m not about to start trying to track all the play-by-plays.//

Very fair point – I definitely exaggerated. That being said, i bet what you’d find is that the the majority of the ypc/ypg stat’s strength in explaining wins (t-stat or whatever you choose), would be subsumed by a successful play stat – or even the awful version of it used by greg davis.

does cfbstats.com have the underlying data for individual attempts? They have situational stats so they might, right?

In my mind’s eye this press conference is delivered by Peter Griffin. After explaining the “consistent run”, he stares blankly at the press and, “pfffffffffffffffffffffffft! pffft! toot!”

perhaps a hotshot oc runs off an ageing hc moore often than a hotshot dc will – people who know the least say the most and the football retarded can see an offense before a defense.

as for the stat, i think it needs some work, but the concept eorks fine. however, when you only have 80 plays to review in a week, why would you need an aggregation to evaluatewhat went well?

If a stat is created to show that 32 carries for 99 yards is successful, or nearly so, then that stat is broken. If that stat is created by and used by your offensive coordinator, then the system is broken.

I think I am going emo. Cut, cry, cut, cry sounds fun right now.

“Echeese engaged in an argument recently on OB about Roy Williams claiming his 19 yards per catch stat with Dallas was a sign of greatness.”

Echeese also argued a few days ago that the Texas offense carried the defense in the OSU win last weekend. If I didn’t know any better I’d say he’s just a troll.

I’m not defending Davis , but i’ve heard that Mack makes many offensive calls during the game. He overrules Davis. Both of them are responsible for that offense. Do you think he does the same thing with Muschamp? Also, Mack has no financial skin in the game. He can hire and pay his “friends” as much as he wants (highest paid coaching staff in the country). All on our (state taxpayers) dime.

Why must everyone pile on the OC? His record speaks for itself. sic