BCS Title Game Probabilities

TCU and Texas it is.

What are the odds that both Bama and Florida lose a game?

Cinci & Boise – “So you’re saying there’s a chance.”

TCU # seems very high to me. From my analysis of the computers, TCU needs TX to lose. The SEC will take care of itself.

So… if TX odds of winning are 67.71%. I’d put TCU’s chances at 22.29%.

   Only way a TX versus TCU champ game happens is if Bama loses to Auburn. Florida loses to Florida State. Florida beats Bama in champ game.

Use the play God feature in Colley matrix. A one loss SEC runner up will be ahead of both TCU & cincy.

Did this last week so numbers might have slightly changed… Assuming Florida wins out…

Colley Matrix computer would have it.
#1. Florida
#2. Texas
#3. Bama
#4. Gtech
#5. Cincy
#6. TCU
#7. Oregon

If florida loses to Bama. Just switch #1 & 3. Of course, I’m assuming that Gtech beats Clemson and wins out. Assuming TCU & Cincy & Oregon win out. Assuming TX beats NU in champ game.

Bottom line… TCU is about to take A HUGE hit in the comps that is not to be recovered from unless others start to lose.

Donny,

There is an 82.57% chance of the SEC champ being undefeated according to these numbers. Combined with the 67.71% chance Texas is given of finishing undefeated, that means that there is a 55.91% chance that both Texas and the SEC champ are undefeated. That’s how TCU gets their title game probability.

And the probability that a 1-loss SEC champ stays ahead of TCU wasn’t included.

Tks for the explanation huck! I do think a 1-loss SEC champ will be ahead of them. Lets say Bama stumbles @ auburn but comes back and beats Florida. I do think because of far superior comp scores that the SEC champ even with 1-loss would be ahead of TCU in the BCS.

As stated above, TCU is going to get destroyed in the computers in the next two weeks

If we were playing TCU’s schedule, we’d be getting flogged at the national levels in ways that would shame our descendants. TCU is being positioned by the same folks as an abused child of the system. It’s typical and unsurprising, but that doesn’t mean I can’t find it irritating.

After going to the TCU game this weekend, all I can say is I am glad the odds of us meeting are slim. TCU is very legit. Fast, aggresive defense, very smart play calling and good execution on offense. Hughes would cause allot of problems for our O-line. I am confident that we would beat them, but if we lost, I would have to stop talking to all of my high school friends as most of them are TCU alums. They have developed an intense hatred for UT this past decade after being left out of the Big XII. The chip they have on their shoulders is almost as big as Aggy and they would never let me hear the end of it.

It seems hard to believe that we have only a 2/3 chance of winning 3 games in a row to get to the BCS game. Given that we should beat KU and TAMU handily, Nebraska would seem to be a strong opponent by your model.

I’ve grown very tired of the TCUs of the world crying about their computer rankings and being left out. Stop playing shitty schedules dickheads.

The Aggies’ extremely high performance standard deviation and Nebraska’s strength are what keeps the percentage down.

The system has Texas as a 28.8 point favorite over Kansas at home this weekend with a 98% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Texas is a 27.5 point favorite over the Aggies at Kyle Field but has only a 85% chance of winning that game. Why? The Jayhawks are a much more consistent team than the Aggies, so the probability that Kansas plays out of their head is significantly lower than the chance that the Aggies pull a great game out of their ass. Texas is a 12.6 point favorite over Nebraska with a 79% win probability.

Unfortunately, that sounds reasonable.

A&M has been truly helter-skelter this year. They almost beat Okie Lite. Then they get KILLED by k-state. Next they drill a good Tech team… then they lose to Colorado.

We need to do to A&M what we did to Baylor. Come out strong and build a lead. We can’t have a Wyoming type first half. Aggy will be playing for the 12 that were fallen 10 years ago and will play their best game against us.

Texas is a 12.6 point favorite over Nebraska with a 79% win probability.

With Zac Lee starring as James Brown?

We’re a powerhouse that increases everybody’s SOS.

I’ve grown very tired of the TCUs of the world crying about their computer rankings and being left out. Stop playing shitty schedules dickheads.

Talk about some of the other non-BCS schools, TCU has scheduled up. They beat Clemson and Virgnia this year, and in the next few years they have:

Texas Tech, Arkansas, OU, LSU, as well as Baylor.

…there is a 101.8% chance that I get so hammered this weekend that I forget which bimbo is my wife….there is a 99.9% chance that Clipper Cooper shows up at Kyle Field on Thanksgiving night to show his respect to the aggys……never have I seen a more class move than at that game 10 years ago when the Longhorn band played “Amazing Grace” for the assembled masses……

So what that TCU played Clemson & Virginia?? Maybe 3 BCS teams since Utah has made a BCS bowl recently. That’s just 2/3 BCS teams on their schedule. We’ve already played 6 with 3 more to go.

srr50, Nordberg and I have been arguing about this via email which I prefer to his normal way or arguing via carrier pigeon. It’s just messy.

He has learned me that not only is your statement correct, but Non-BCS schools are 3-1 in BCS bowls. Also, Utah put Michigan on the schedule last year then effed TCU and Byu before being screwed. You know the rest about a Bama team with its pants down.

I’ll let him argue his point about a second set of bowls for the also rans, and marxisim.

…I believe the formula for the second set of bowls is included in my copy of Das Kapital….

If TCU schedule OU, Virginia, Clemson and LSU as their OOC slate and had BYU and Utah with only 1 or 2 losses each and then went undefeated I might consider them for a place in the top 5, maybe even in the top 2 depending on what other teams did. I am tired about hearing how we have cakewalked to the championship and we are supposed to cede our spot to TCU or Boise State when they played even weaker overall schedules.

My God, how awesome would it be if Texas and TCU played for the national championship. It would feel like 1930. And we could finally tell Florida and California to SUCK IT!!!

I am tired about hearing how we have cakewalked to the championship and we are supposed to cede our spot to TCU or Boise State when they played even weaker overall schedules.

I agree. Everyone nationally that is saying that TCU deserves a shot at the MNC game is saying that it should come at our expense. Well fuck them and fuck TCU.

Also, Utah put Michigan on the schedule last year then effed TCU and Byu before being screwed.

They wouldn’t have had to “put” Michigan on the schedule if they’d gone through with their contract with Texas.

Virginia is horrible and Clemson is not much better

Clemson lost to Maryland. Yes. THAT maryland.

If my understanding of the BCS selection process is correct, the following bowls are what we’d be most likely to see (given the current standings). If my understanding is incorrect, enlighten me.

BCS Title game: Texas vs. Undefeated SEC team
Rose Bowl (Automatically gets Pac10 champ vs. Big 10 champ): Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl (Chooses first for losing SEC champ to title game): SEC Title Game loser
Fiesta Bowl (Chooses second for losing Texas): I think they take TCU. Regional. Widely recognized as 4th best team. D/FW and Texas TV markets. Fanbase probably travels for first ever BCS bowl. I’m open to arguments for otherwise.
Orange Bowl (Automatically gets ACC champ, probably Georgia Tech): I think they take the JoePa storyline, the tv market of all of Pennsylvania and the East Coast, so Georgia Tech v. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl (Chooses next since Sugar Bowl got first pick): Because Boise is ahead of Georgia Tech in the BCS standings, that means they automatically qualify for a BCS bid. If Boise State falls behind all of the BCS conference champs in the BCS, then they are no longer guaranteed a BCS berth, and Oklahoma State would probably come into play here. Going off the current standings, the Fiesta would currently be choosing between Cincinnati and Boise State. I see them choosing the more regionally-friendly Boise for a compelling matchup of TCU vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Has no choice but to take the Big East champ for the ever-so-riveting matchup of SEC Title Game Loser v. Cincinnati

I gotta disagree on TCU v. Boise for the Fiesta. Rematch from last year. Least likely combo to sell out, IMO.

I didn’t think more than one non-BCS league team can get an auto, but if I am wrong I am wrong….

As discussed elsewhere. If there is an eligible big xii team. and there WILL be if OSU gets past OU. Fiesta will not pass them up twice. They are in bed with the Big XII.

HenryJames asked to see a pictorial representation of the team ratings versus standard deviations statement above, so here it is with Texas’, Kansas’, and Texas A&M’s team ratings shown:

Now here’s the effect on the game prediction function with the two game result graphs shown:

As you can see, the predicted point spread is the high point of each distribution. 50% of the distribution is to the right of that point and 50% is to the left. The vertical axis is set at zero, meaning that the outcomes to the left of that point represent Texas losses and the outcomes to the right represent Texas wins. So the 50% mark against Kansas is a slightly greater value along the horizontal axis, meaning the predicted point spread is larger. However, a much higher percentage of game outcomes are to the left of zero against Texas A&M than against Kansas. The point spreads are similar, but the win probabilities are significantly different.