Preliminary Look at Bowl Lines
by Barking Carnival Staff on Dec 9, 2009 1:40 PM CST
in Texas Longhorns and Other Football
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PrintI do this every year right after the bowl lines come out. It's as ritualistic as Scipio's use of bukkake tags in his team previews. Well, almost.
I consider it the first step in my handicapping process and it serves the purpose of identifying my own gut feeling about line value. Call it the eyeball test for bowl capping.
My next step is to go back and look at stats, matchups, X's and O's, and motivational angles and situations to refine what my gut is telling me. To be clear, these are just shooting from the hip going off of what I've seen throughout the year. In other words, I put on my Guido cap and line all the bowls. So, here they are. The first number is the actual current line and the second number is my line. I'd love to read your thoughts.
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Wyoming +10.5, I made it +8 for a diff of 2.5
FSU can run it, but Wyoming stops the run. Gun to my head I take Wyoming.
St. Petersburg
UCF vs. Rutgers -2.5, I made the game -4 for a diff of 1.5
The fighting Schiano's against the Resume Embellishment guy. I dunno, I initially like Rutgers ability to stop the run, but it's prolly a no play.
R+L Carriers New Orleans
Southern Miss vs. MTSU +3.5, and I made it a +7 for 3.5
I'll look at USM very closely. I'm pretty sure their injuries are driving the number down.
MAACO Las Vegas
Oregon State vs. BYU +2.5, I made it +7.5 for a diff of 5.
At first blush, the Beavers are a play. To clarify, Beavers are always a play but I really like OSU's front 7 against BYU's pass happy attack. On offense, the Beavers will score and score and score some more on the Mormons. It'll remind of the FSU game. I'll be on the game.
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah vs. Cal -3, I made it a 3.
More than likely a no play.
Sheraton Hawaii
Nevada vs. SMU +14, I made it a 13.
I'll look closely at the over in a game that likely features 40 passing attempts per team.
Little Caesars
Marshall vs. Ohio -2.5 and I made it a +2 for a diff 4.5
Marshall plays better competition and they should be able to run it on Ohio. I'll look closely at this game.
Meineke Car Care
Pitt vs. North Carolina +3 and I made it a +3
May seem low on its face, but UNC shuts down the Pitt running game leaving Stull and Wannstache to figure out how to score. Game is also in Charlotte, and I can't see Pitt wanting to be here. Unless you trust Wannstache to rally the troops I'd stay away from the Panther side.
Emerald
Boston College vs. USC -9, I made it -11, for a diff of 2
I like BC's ability to stop the run against a Trojan club that loves to run it. My problem with the BC side is the cross country travel and lack of talent. If you promise me that USC wants to play I may look at the Trojans. Otherwise, my focus is on the under or nothing.
Gaylord Hotels Music City
Kentucky vs. Clemson -7, I made it -2.5 for a diff of 4.5
I made the game less than a field goal because Kentucky has seen better rushing attacks in the SEC and they'll find ways to move it on Clemson's surprisingly porous defense. I think it's a field goal game and the motivation angle has to favor UK. I'm really going to look closely at this one.
AdvoCare V100 Independence
Texas A&M vs. Georgia -7, I made it a -8 for a diff of 1
If anyone else is playing QB for Georgia I'd lay the points. But Cox doesn't do it for me. I may look at the under here as well.
Champs Sports
Miami vs. Wisconsin +3, I made it a +6.5 for a diff of 3.5
Home game for Miami playing against a Wisky secondary that gives up points in bunches. Also, Miami's front 7 should be healthier than they've been all year. Statement game for Shannon. Looking hard at this one.
Roady's Humanitarian
Bowling Green vs. Idaho-1, I mad it -2 for a diff of 1
Reason number 857 there are too many bowls. The over/under on this one has to be in the 80's. Pass.
Pacific Life Holiday
Arizona vs. Nebraska +1, I made it a +2
At first blush I kind of like the Arizona side. But the Longhorn in me can't seem to forget the Big 12 'Ship game. I'll look at the total here as well.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
Houston vs. Air Force +4.5 I made it a +3
Air Force stops the run but Houston throws it. Houston can't stop anyone. I'll look at the AF side here if the numbers look good. I'll really like it if I hear that Sumlin is looking around.
Brut Sun
Oklahoma vs. Stanford +9, I made it a 7.
If Luck is playing, I may try the Tree here. There are some important guys on OU's club with one foot in the NFL combine. But no Luck, then no play.
Texas Bowl
Navy vs. Missouri Houston
I made Mizzou a 6 point favorite but I couldn't find an official line. We'll get to see a healthy Gabbert.
Insight
Minnesota vs. Iowa State +2.5, I made it a +3 for a diff of .5
El Paso on this one. Gun to the head I take ISU.
Chick-fil-A
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee +4.5, I made it a +2.5 for a diff of 2
I think Kiffin can totally confound Beamer's group, especially Taylor. If the younger Kiffin is embroiled in some sort of hostess for scholly drama, I want no part of this game. If not, I'll look at the Tenny side.
Outback
Northwestern vs. Auburn -7.5, I made it -6 for a diff of 1.5
I'd really like the SEC side if it was anyone but Chizik going up against a spread offense. This is a Richard Simmons game. Backdoor is wide open as the Wildcats can score.
Capital One
Penn State vs. LSU +3, I made LSU the favorite at -4 for a diff of 7
This may be my favorite game on the board. I'm trying to figure out how Penn State is going to score. Give me the Hat to win and win big.
Konica Minolta Gator
West Virginia vs. Florida State +3, I made FSU a 1 point fave for diff of 4
I'll look at this one closely as well. Home game for FSU, Bobby Bowden's last stand, etc. and so forth.
Rose Bowl Game
Ohio State vs. Oregon -3.5, I made tOSU a 2 point favorite
My second favorite game on the board. The Bucks will make Masoli one dimensional and just out athlete them on the other side of the ball. And the Ducks thought Boise State's front 7 was dominant. Look out. Bucks win.
Allstate Sugar
Florida vs. Cincinnati +10, I made it +14 for a diff of 4
I like Florida's front 4 to get pressure and hit Pike all night long. On defense, Cincy gave up nearly 40 points to Juice Williams. Tim Tebow says hi. Brian Kelly may have one foot out the door. Give me Jesus and his disciples. I'll probably bet this game.
International played in Canada
South Florida vs. Northern Illinois +6.5, I made it 6.
I have zero interest in this game other than to see the kind of health care the players receive.
Papajohns.com
South Carolina vs. UConn +4.5, I made it 7 for a diff of 2.5.
If it gets under 4 it's probably going to be a play, because, like a New York night club hostess, everyone scores on UCONN.
AT&T Cotton
Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss -3, I made it a 1.
Classic battle of nature with The Nuttsack vs. The Man. I think Ole Miss gets kicked in the balls if Zac Robinson and Kendall Hunter are right. If not, just like Greg Davis, I'll pass.
Liberty
Arkansas vs. East Carolina +7.5, I made it a 7.
If Skip Holtz spittles on Petrino pregame I might call in an entertainment bet on Arkie. Otherwise, I'll root for Mallet to have a big game and go pro.
Valero Alamo
Michigan State vs. Texas Tech -7, I made it a 10 for a diff of 3.
I like the matchup for Tech and will play the game if it looks like D'Antonio has indeed lost his team.
Tostitos Fiesta
Boise State vs. TCU -6.5, I made it a 10 for a diff of 3.5.
Go rewatch the BSU vs. San Jose State game. The Spartans were the best front 4 Boise has faced all year. If SJSU had an offense that could have stayed on the field for any length of time, they likely play within a score or two. TCU is a horrible matchup for Broncs for this reason. I like TCU to roll here and it's a likely play for me.
FedEx Orange
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech -4, I made the game a 5.
I hate Georgia Tech's defense. I may look at the over here.
GMACCentral Michigan vs. Troy +4, I made the game a +6 for a diff 2.
I can't bet this game unless I get drunk. Okay, so I may bet this game because I'll be drunk and it's the only game on January 6. Give me the fighting Lefevre's.
Citi BCS National Championship Game
Texas vs. Alabama -6, I made the game a pick.
I think there's a lot of bias going on here. My own bias to make it a pick and recency bias on the part of the public that has made this game nearly a TD. But keep in mind that Texas was a field goal favorite just two weeks ago. I think Bama wins by a field goal so give me the points. This is the same Bama club that eeked out wins vs. Auburn, LSU, and Tennessee.
Who do you like in this most wonderful time of the year?
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Comments
Waiting for a more favorable moneyline on the BCS game.
by TOR on Dec 9, 2009 1:52 PM CST reply actions
Once the line gets to around 7.5-8 you have to bet Texas. McElroy had the game of his freakin’ life against Florida.
by rounder on Dec 9, 2009 2:13 PM CST reply actions
“There are lines on exhibition games?”
They are all exhibition games, except the two-team playoff game.
by nordberg on Dec 9, 2009 2:15 PM CST reply actions
If I were you fellas I wouldn’t argue with Ag_in_TX about what is and isn’t an exhibition game.
Ags are pretty much experts on the subject of exhibition games.
by Orangeblood79 on Dec 9, 2009 2:30 PM CST reply actions
So Trips, we’re even now, right? HAHAHYAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAA
by CloseToJumping on Dec 9, 2009 2:31 PM CST reply actions
Cox doesn’t do it for me.
That goes against everything I’ve read on this board.
by Bob in Houston on Dec 9, 2009 2:43 PM CST reply actions
I love LSU, Ohio State, and Florida.
I like Georgia, Miami, Oregon State, and Carolina
I will bet all other games but the lower plays include Zona, Arky, Tech, and TCU.
by Groundhog Day on Dec 9, 2009 2:49 PM CST reply actions
Nevada won’t throw it more than 20 times against SMU. They’ll run for 350 though.
Like Florida big.
Tech rolls MSU. I have reasonably high confidence in this.
I don’t think you should take any part of Ohio St. Using the Boise St game as a litmus test for anything is fucking idiocy.
Like TCU big.
Maybe like Iowa with points. They’re hard to blow out. Georgia Tech’s D will give up points to Iowa’s WR/TE group. Iowa’s D is pretty disciplined.
If you bet on the Cotton Bowl, you’re flipping a coin. If you tell me with any certainty you suspect what will happen in that game, you’re a liar.
by Scipio Tex on Dec 9, 2009 2:53 PM CST reply actions
“If you bet on the Cotton Bowl, you’re flipping a coin. If you tell me with any certainty you suspect what will happen in that game, you’re a liar.”
During the Cotton Bowl, Nutt will act like a prick and Gundy will look like a doosh. I am certain of that.
“This is a Richard Simmons game.”
I am stealing this.
I am going to make it my goal this year to talk you out of the tOSU game.
When in doubt, try and gauge the motivation for each team.
East Carolina (good defense, Arky won’t be motivated to play them)
Rutgers/UCF under (i don’t even know what it is but I’m taking the under)
TCU (they just are better than Boise, esp away from the blue turf, TCU dominated them last year too)
Texas (are they trying to say that Florida would be 11 pt favorites over us? tons of line value here)
Tech (they get to play indoors against a team that rarely sees the likes of a tech spread offense? only giving 7? OK)
Seems to me that their are a lot more shitty matchups than normal.
by dick on Dec 9, 2009 3:17 PM CST reply actions
Bama turned the ball over 10 times in 13 games. Plus 16 on turnovers overall.
Texas turned the ball over 23 times in 13 games. Plus 9 on turnovers overall.
That and the kick coverage worries me.
I’m not a bettor, but if you held a gun to my head and said, “Bet!,” I’d pull a Basil Fawlty fainting spell and pretend to be in a coma until the game started.
I have no handle at all on this game.
by LurkerintheDark on Dec 9, 2009 3:43 PM CST reply actions
TCU will kill Boise.
Florida will kill Cincy.
There. I made the hard picks.
I absolutely detest the naming of bowls after corporate sponsors. Would a playoff stop this?
by LurkerintheDark on Dec 9, 2009 3:47 PM CST reply actions
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee +4.5, I made it a +2.5 for a diff of 1.5
nice math
by tree on Dec 9, 2009 3:52 PM CST reply actions
Fuck you and your math Mr. Rollins. Oh, and fuck the Atlanta Hawks.
Thanks for the catch, though.;)
by Trips Right on Dec 9, 2009 3:59 PM CST reply actions
“I absolutely detest the naming of bowls after corporate sponsors. Would a playoff stop this?”
Nope. Only Marxism or Socialism.
by Trips Right on Dec 9, 2009 4:00 PM CST reply actions
No line on the Mizzou game because Navy still has a game to play – that Army/Navy nonsense.
I like Florida’s front 4 to get pressure and hit Pike all night long.
I bet we see a lot of Collares. He’s shiftier, and to my untrained eye, just plain better than Pike. I wonder if Kelly will still be there.
Great post – I love the bowls.
by Phenomenal Smith on Dec 9, 2009 4:12 PM CST reply actions
The Increase Worker Cooperative Prosperity Equality Non-Exploitation Bowl has a certain ring to it.
As does the Five Year Plan Weedeater Bowl.
by Scipio Tex on Dec 9, 2009 4:13 PM CST reply actions
im actually looking at the under for Iowa. and against the points vs tOSU.
agree that once the Bama is giving up 7.5 its a STEAL…
by scagnetti on Dec 9, 2009 4:43 PM CST reply actions
Alabama -6
I should have bet you $100.
If we all actually collected on that bet, Trips would owe a few grand. I wrote it off due to hammeredness.
So Trips, we’re even now, right? HAHAHYAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAA
It wasn’t the only farfetched prediction in the bar that night. CTJ was legitimately concerned that TCU might jump us and take over the #2 spot after we won the game. Only two spots off. I wrote it off due to genetic contrarianism.
Of course Scipio missed all this because he was mopping up a black truffle foie gras beet salad with pan francais during a 3 hr postgame dinner.
And I apparently opened a bar tab under the name Colt McCoy.
by Vasherized on Dec 9, 2009 4:57 PM CST reply actions
I had a $400 bar tab. Jake Locker and the Washington Huskies +7 picked it up.
by Trips Right on Dec 9, 2009 5:00 PM CST reply actions
That makes sense. I opened it in Colt’s name and closed it under yours.
The future mr & mrs. HenryJames drank a six pack of Fat Tire in about 15 minutes.
by Vasherized on Dec 9, 2009 5:07 PM CST reply actions
It’s back down to Alabama -4.5 now. Sanity has set back in.
by Huckleberry on Dec 9, 2009 6:39 PM CST reply actions
I’ve posted the bowl games at the FLV Sportsbook.
by Huckleberry on Dec 9, 2009 7:20 PM CST reply actions
Unless you trust Wannstache to rally the troops I’d stay away from the Panther side.
The words, “The smart money is on the Dave Wannstedt coached team,” have never been uttered.
by The General on Dec 9, 2009 8:33 PM CST reply actions
“Jake Locker and the Washington Huskies +7 picked it up.”
You’re welcome.
by dick on Dec 9, 2009 10:42 PM CST reply actions
Thanks, dick. That was rather easy now wasn’t it. Got any more?
by Trips Right on Dec 9, 2009 11:43 PM CST reply actions
Carnal knowledge…of a woman this time, on the premises.
by Trips Right on Dec 10, 2009 8:51 AM CST reply actions
Senor Corona bet anyone who would listen that the opening spread would favor Texas.
by Vasherized on Dec 10, 2009 9:52 AM CST reply actions
@ Phenomenal -
Army/Navy is the furthest thing from nonsense… in fact, it’s un-American not to bet on Navy, who’ve covered 6 of last 7 vs Army.
Don’t let Army ‘s 5 wins fool you. The opponents they’ve beaten are a combined 8 and 51 (0-12 E. Michigan, 2-10 Ball St, 2-10 Vanderbilt, 2-9 VMI, and 2-10 UNT). Navy sports an athletic QB in Ricky Dobbs that leads a running attack ripping off 5 YPC against the likes of ND, tOSU and Pitt.
Lay the 14 and go do your holiday shopping.
by carlspackler on Dec 10, 2009 10:27 AM CST reply actions
Nevada will not throw the ball 40 times against SMU. Copernicus averaged 21 pass attempts for the year and only threw more than 25 passes twice. Even against Boise when they needed to try and get into a shootout, he only threw 22 passes.
by Macanudo on Dec 10, 2009 5:49 PM CST reply actions
Oregon State is going to make people some money.
by ghostofagroundgame on Dec 10, 2009 6:04 PM CST reply actions
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