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Tiger Woods: The Butterfly Effect

As the Tiger Woods Sex Scandal tries to answer the question, "Will Tiger reach 18 Majors or 18 Mistresses First?" the golf world has to contemplate exactly how hard will his self-induced sabbatical hurt the game.

Star-divide

While there is little doubt that Tiger -- and the rest of the PGA tour will take a hit in the pocketbook, there is one segment of business that is enjoying the ride.

Google and Yahoo, who host over 80% of all internet searches in the U.S. say they have both seen a significant spike in traffic from people following the Woods soap opera. Yahoo reports that searches for Woods' name are up more than 3,900% over the past month.


Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz said, "God bless Tiger..."[This] is better than Michael Jackson dying; it is kind of hard to put an ad next to a funeral,"

While the internet may be the financial winner in all of this, it is easy to sort out the losers.

TIGER WOODS
Woods of course is the big loser personally, and he is in seclusion trying to piece back his personal and professional life. But for Tiger, the hits just keep on coming. Now there is a report linking Woods to a Canadian Doctor being investigated for for supplying performance-enhancing drugs to athletes.

Woods is already feeling the pinch among his sponsors. Gillette has stated that since Tiger was taking a "Timeout" from golf, they would take a break in using him in their advertisements.


So far Accenture is the only one of Tiger Woods' sponsors to completely drop him.

The Swiss watch manufacturer Tag Heuer, has said they stand by Woods, and of course Nike is also remaining steadfast in their support.

THE NETWORKS - THE PGA TOUR
Network TV contracts are about up and negotiations are just around the corner. The PGA Tour has 11 tournaments whose sponsor contracts are set to expire after 2010. Three others, including the January event at Torrey Pines in San Diego are listed as "scheduled without sponsors."

Both sides have an idea as to what kind of effect Woods' absence can have -- they need only look to last year after the U.S. Open.


With Woods out after knee surgery, the PGA tour saw a 50% drop in TV ratings in 2008.

When Woods dropped out of the tour after the 2008 U.S. Open, tour TV ratings dropped out of sight. The average household rating/share for the 2007 events that Tiger played in was 3.3/8. The same tournaments played in 2008 without the injured Tiger dropped to a 1.7/4. Essentially with Tiger tour events averaged 4.5 million .viewers. Without him, they pulled in 2.4 million viewers.

Woods is also a draw with new media. When he won the 2008 U.S. Open, the PGA Tour website had 1.6 million unique visitors.

TOURING PROS
The rest of the PGA tour will be counting the days until Tiger's return. He has been the face of the sport for over a decade, and he has made many of them millionaires.

In 1996, when Woods was just a part-timer on the tour, Jumbo Ozaki was the tour's leading money winner with $1,944,000. Woods played in 13 events and won $818,484. There were 15 pros who won $1 million or more on the tour in 1996. Robert Gamez was 125th on the list, which assured him of his touring card for 1997. He earned $314,596.


Meet Kevin Streelman, golf unkown -- and millionaire.

Have you heard of Kevin Streelman? Neither have I, and I am the official Golf Prick of Barking Carnival. Streelman is a journeyman pro out of Duke. He finished 91st on the PGA 2008 money list, with $1,007,044. Since Tiger came on the scene the number of yearly millionaires on the PGA tour has increased six times over.

Woods himself only played in 17 events in 2008, yet won $10,508,153 -- over ten times what he won back in 1996.

How long will his leave of absence last? That is, literally, the $64,000,000 question.

The belief is that when he returns, if he is the Tiger of old, there will be no long-term hangover for both the golfer and the tour. But should he not return to his previous level of play, it would be the worst case scenario for the sport.

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Comments

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I can’t believe we haven’t seen a slew of fake Accenture adds. Those adds are just too easy to mock now. “Go on. Be a Tiger.” indeed.

by t1climb1 on Dec 15, 2009 5:22 PM CST reply actions  

Thanks – great stuff. Golf prickery aside.
 
The HGH angle is REALLY interesting. That’s more damaging to the PGA than the bimbos if it explodes.

by Scipio Tex on Dec 15, 2009 6:18 PM CST reply actions  

Tiger’s just another facet of the sports bubble that’s either on the verge of popping or in the midst of it.

It could be just as ugly as the housing market collapse, though with fewer casualties. We’re seeing the opening rounds of it with the WNBA acting like the subprime canary in the coal mine. Lower-table British FA clubs and Div 2 college football programs too.

I think Jerry got his boondoggle in just under the wire.

by CrazyJoeDavola on Dec 15, 2009 6:47 PM CST reply actions  

CJD, I almost posted something just like this.

What are the odds that Tiger doesn’t end up in historians’ lectures on our age of excess?

by parlin on Dec 15, 2009 7:43 PM CST reply actions  

Anyone who hires accenture derves what they get – overpriced undifferentiated generic consulting usually delivered by underqualified BBAs waiting around for their next job.

They go to trade shows in my industry and must roll out a $50k-$100k booth full of Tiger posters and giveaway crap. I legitimately feel sorry for people who talk to them because they are about to pay way more than they should for what they’re going to get.

I know there are some good people who work there, but the money they spend on this marketing effort, IMO, shows what a poor choice they would be for consulting advice.

by Sugarpants on Dec 15, 2009 7:44 PM CST reply actions  

Relating that post back to the point of the article – I think everyone on tour is about to take a massive pay cut as accenture realizes it was not money well spent. Others are going to catch on as well.

by Sugarpants on Dec 15, 2009 7:45 PM CST reply actions  

Golf and baseball — two sports (and that’s assuming golf is a sport) about which increasingly nobody gives a damn.

by GiordanoBruno on Dec 15, 2009 7:59 PM CST reply actions  

If it is proven that this loser was juicing, he can kiss what is left of his career good bye

by ransomstoddard on Dec 15, 2009 9:29 PM CST reply actions  

I remember “way back when”, like, 2 weeks ago, when people on this board told the rest of us that his transgression would have no effect on his sponsorship. A similar concept was that the transgressions wouldn’t cost him anything more than his “air tight” prenup, which has since been upped by $60million.

I think it is naive to posit that if he comes back and wins, things go back to the way they were for Woods. He has pulled everyone down the rabbit hole with him, and there isn’t any going back. And it isn’t pretty.

Have an affair with someone and get busted, then apologize and straighten out or get divorced, and much of the world can forgive you. Fuck 20 whores, porn stars, and waitresses, get associated to an ongoing performance enhancing drug investigation, admonish the public for following you as they did when you were king, and never stand up and own up, and I am not sure folks are going to be that willing to embrace you.

“But everyone loves a winner!”. Not really. We have plenty of those. Ask Mark McGwire or Barry Bonds about being loved as a winner. Or Roger Clemens.

You are wrong on his ability to have a complete comeback. I did enjoy the post, though.

by CloseToJumping on Dec 15, 2009 10:44 PM CST reply actions  

Yeah I should have been clearer CTJ, I don’t share the opinion of some PR types that all will be forgiven. I think it is a huge mistake for Tiger to go on his yacht and just disappear for a while. A mea culpa would seem to be in order right about now.

Phil Knight thinks it will all go away. He said, that when Woods’ career is over “you’ll look back on these indiscretions as a minor blip,”

Of course if any of Woods sponsors can feel that way it is Nike. Maybe they lose a few of the casual or part-time golfers, and they probably don’t sell as many red shirts for a while, but I think the hardcore golfing fan drawn to Nike golf equipment will still be there.

by srr50 on Dec 15, 2009 11:21 PM CST reply actions  

My bad, then, srr50. I think those guys are wrong, as opposed to you, since that isn’t your position.

Knight and Nike have been rewarded for standing by their guys before. Michael Jordan was busted for affairs and being a motherfucker, but it did little damage. What Knight isn’t accounting for in this situation is that this isn’t 1993. Things like the blogosphere, Twitter, camera phones, and the ubiquity of the Internet make transgressions much more front of mind for the average viewer.

There isn’t a ton of risk for Nike, compared to the other sponsors. Tag, Buick, AmEx, and Accenture, these are products for the elite or pseudo-elite in some manner. Nike isn’t. Nike is about winning, pure and simple. If they did a commercial with Pete Rose, OJ Simpson, and Jose Canseco, I doubt most folks would bat an eye.

by CloseToJumping on Dec 15, 2009 11:33 PM CST reply actions  

Plus Nike’s entirely married to Woods — he essentially started their golf brand. Without him, they’re truly Israelites wandering in the desert.

Meanwhile, we need a GB&U on the Woods harem.

by BEHorn on Dec 16, 2009 12:22 AM CST reply actions  

“overpriced undifferentiated generic consulting” – I can’t stop giggling over this. I’ve often thought the same thing tho – who the fuck pays for this bullshit?! Don’t these large companies have enough in-house brains to figure out their own problems? And to think Accenture makes enough to spend $15 mil per year on Tiger Woods ads while I’d be willing to wager 99% of Americans do not even know what Accenture is or does.

Crazy Joe, great point about the sports bubble. I think we’ll see a free fall in terms of dollars spent across the sports spectrum from here out. There definitely won’t be another Jerry World for the forseeable future.

by trkhorn on Dec 16, 2009 12:39 AM CST reply actions  

I think he should just take this opportunity to re-brand himself. Instead of Gillette adds, go for Axe. Contact GoDaddy.com. He could be the star of the ‘What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas’ campaigns! Embrace his new tabloid magazine driven self and be the next playboy. He could then target Will Chamberlain’s legend and be all he can be and do all he can do.

by TexasFan101 on Dec 16, 2009 8:31 AM CST reply actions  

I plan to spend some time discussing steroids and baseball if I can get free of performance reviews and do my next installment, but the HGH thing is huge if there’s some fire with that smoke. Golf, as I understand it, may have a double secret testing regime that is kept out of the media limelight, but it is largely unregulated in that regard. Generally, folks dismiss use of PE in golf because of basic misconceptions about PE. Folks think of bulked up body builders unable to straighten their arms and teetering around in comical outfits. PE come in many forms, and a whole wing of them involve the ability to recover and heal more quickly from exercise/injury and improving functional strength. Combined with rigorous flexibility training, one can improve overall athletic performance without looking like Ronnie Coleman. It’s the same line of thought that indicated pitchers would never juice, until the testing went into effect and pitcher started getting caught regularly. They didn’t want it for the strength, they wanted it to get their arm to bounce back quicker.

I’ve always suspected that performance enhancing chemicals are at play in the golfing world, especially since the rise of rigorous training that came with Tiger. As courses started to “Tiger-proof” by lengthening, driving distance becomes among the most paramount abilities of anybody hoping to win.

by BatesHorn on Dec 16, 2009 8:52 AM CST reply actions  

Bates, have you ever played four round of golf in four consecutive days? I’m not in great shape, but I’m no couch potato either, and I’ve done that a few times in my life. I was beat. Now imagine doing that 30 weeks per year, combined with hitting the practice range, putting green, playing scouting rounds on Monday or Tuesday, and travelling each and every week. Hell yeah these guys are loading up on something. And, I’m surprised they have any time to chase tail (I guess it Tiger’s case it didn’t involve any chasing, just laying the err…woods).

by uthookem on Dec 16, 2009 8:58 AM CST reply actions  

How many tournaments were sponsored by car companies? Buick had at least three. I don’t think the trouble with that industry has wound its way through the tournament sponsorship landscape yet. I imagine there will be fewer cars to win on par threes this season and next.

by Groweprice on Dec 16, 2009 9:07 AM CST reply actions  

I have not, but I know how much wear and tear my body accumulates from lifting 3-4 times a week as a 36 year old and taking something to allow you to bounce back would sure be nice if not for the heinous side effects. I can’t imagine the aches and pains the average professional athelete endures over the course of any season.

by BatesHorn on Dec 16, 2009 9:07 AM CST reply actions  

You hit the nail on the head BatesHorn. I’m somewhat amazed at the lack of knowledge about PED’s from the majority of sports fans. Then again…. I shouldn’t be surprised at the lack of critical thinking from Fast Food Nation.

by Art Vandelay on Dec 16, 2009 9:32 AM CST reply actions  

I am not sure there is that much of a lack of knowledge. 5 years ago, sure. With the busts of Pettite and Clemens and the claims on Armstrong, I feel like even casual obeservers are willing to believe that athletes in any sport might be cheating. Maybe living in Houston has made folks here hyper-aware because of the two pitchers I mentioned that live here, but I am iffy that it’s a local thing.

by CloseToJumping on Dec 16, 2009 12:19 PM CST reply actions  

CTJ, I agree that there is much more awareness today that athletes in various sports are cheating, but I don’t believe that equates to knowledge or understanding of PED’s. Most casual sports fans don’t know that as many (or more) pitchers are using PED’s than everyday players. Most fans think golf is 100% clean of users because they don’t understand the various categories of PED’s, and how athletes are using them to gain an advantage.

by Art Vandelay on Dec 17, 2009 9:10 AM CST reply actions  

Most casual sports fans also associate PEDs with “getting huge” and don’t realize that the most effective and sophisticated of them can’t be reliably tested for.

by Scipio Tex on Dec 17, 2009 2:38 PM CST reply actions  

Again, I am in Houston, so maybe my perception of the “casual sports fan” is different because of the huge local news coverage of Pettite and Clemens, but most folks here have an awareness of what’s actually going on.

by CloseToJumping on Dec 17, 2009 2:42 PM CST reply actions  

Here’s a funny quote to make you smile :)
You’re just jealous because the voices are talking to me and not you! :)

by Clifford Greenidge on Aug 20, 2010 12:02 PM CDT reply actions  

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