Texas-Alabama: Faith, Defense, and Phlogiston
I haven't been writing much because I've been slammed with work, recharging my battery while visiting family and friends in Austin,
gaining so much sodium bloating from festive seasonal eating that my now fattened sausage fingers can't manipulate a keyboard without pressing three keys at a time, I've been intensely focused on the new season of the Bachelor and...well, OK, the real reason: I'm not very enthused about what I'm about to write for you.
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Fuck it, we got intangibles and we’re gonna win this shit.
by Prophylactic on Jan 6, 2010 6:11 AM CST reply actions
Great writeup as usual, Scip. I could not agree more on the assessment that this game goes even money with a big special teams play (or defensive score). Most predictions I’ve seen on the interwebs have us losing by 4 or 5. Here’s to extending our non-offensive scoring streak this season and winning it 20-17.
Hook ’em!
by Looney on Jan 6, 2010 6:15 AM CST reply actions
Yea, sanity. Can’t say much for it, as a life strategy.
Thank Zorastra I’m off Friday. If we lose I’ll get even more plowed than if we win.
by NBMisha on Jan 6, 2010 6:17 AM CST reply actions
Actually, I’m optimistic that we win tomorrow night because we have more talent across the board, a much better seasoned QB with a shot at leaving a legacy that is unparalled at Texas, a defense and DC that is every bit the equal of the Tide’s, a coaching staff that has a proven record of success in these situations, and a head coach that will have his team better prepared (history tells us this) and in a better mindset for the game.
You are far too pessimistic for whatever reasons. But you are one fun fella to read when you come out firing like you did.
BTW. Coaches and players always refer to “intangibles” as primary reasons they either won or lost a game. Attitude is a huge factor in these games involving fairly equal teams. Personally, I can’t fathom walking out of the Rose Bowl tomorrow night without another National Championship.
Hope we run into you.
by beowulf on Jan 6, 2010 6:28 AM CST reply actions
German humor is not tangible?
I don’t get it.
I’m hanging my hopes on our defense, and the fact that bowl games have tons of upsets. If we had played a week after the championship games, I wouldn’t give us much chance at all. After a long layoff? Well, that adds a lot of randomness into it. At times like this I wish I wasn’t an atheist…
by Fritz on Jan 6, 2010 6:29 AM CST reply actions
You forgot to account for the three interceptions, special teams return TD, and two fumble recoveries.
And we’re in our road whites, too.
Texas 41
Alabama 0
by Huckleberry on Jan 6, 2010 6:39 AM CST reply actions
Great, I was feeling reasonably confident about the game and here you go being all realistic and shit.
Kidding aside, this was one of your better efforts and it was genuinely funny throughout. Cheers.
by TKO on Jan 6, 2010 6:49 AM CST reply actions
You left out the 132 pound kickoff specialist who kicks line drives to the other team’s 20 yard line, our Pop Warner kickoff coverage, and bizarre punt strategy. Those factors alone give UA ten points. Best to have very low expectations for this game and appreciate the fact that we are playing for it all. We’ll have another opportunity in about three years.
by ransomstoddard on Jan 6, 2010 6:51 AM CST reply actions
Salt consumption has made you morose and gloomy.
Will gets us scoreless into a third OT. Chris Hall
rumbles into the endzone on a fumblerooski, spikes
the ball, and decks an Alabama cheerleader out of
sheer meanness.
I dreamed it in my head.
by parlin on Jan 6, 2010 6:55 AM CST reply actions
BTW. The same dynamics are in play with these two teams that caused you to hope for an Alabama win over Florida back in the day before you became vaginalized after the SEC and Big 12 CGs.
Can McElroy have another masterpiece game or will he revert to his Auburn/Tennessee/etc. bus driver comfort zone? Can Will make the Bama QB win the game by shutting down Bama’s run game?
Will Colt find his sea legs and get us a run game against Bama? Do our receivers fare well against Bama’s run stuffing safeties? Have we been successful picking up blitzes during the year? (yes)
I like our chances.
by beowulf on Jan 6, 2010 7:36 AM CST reply actions
I had an actual dream that we lost 4-0. That’s right, two safties. Fuck greg davis and his son chris hall. (Also hoping that I have to eat crow on that last comment, but not expecting too.)
Thanks for the optimism Scipio. At least it makes me feel better that this economy has screwed me out of the chance to go to the game.
by jinx on Jan 6, 2010 7:43 AM CST reply actions
36.5% chance? That’s about right, in my opinion. Alabama looks to be a little better. Texas is not 2005 Texas, but Bama is not 2005 USC either, believe it or not.
I agree on the intangibles. Often, they’re not tangible because there really isn’t anything there.
Look, for the last two years, the story on this Texas team has been the same- it will go as far as Colt and the defense take it. Colt played poorly against OU and NU, and we won by only 3 and 2 respectively (per Sagarin’s Predictor, we should have won those games by…4 and 7 points, respectively). Colt’s timingand accuracy were off in both of those games, and if he only played average ball (or if Kirkendoll holds on in the B12 CG), we would be looking at this team much differently.
Can Colt play like he did against OU in 2008? Like he did against Missouri in ‘08 and ’09? Like the 2nd half of the Fiesta Bowl last year? or this year’s OSU game? If so, I think we probably win. Colt’s 2008 RRS was the finest performance I had ever seen from him, where his accuracy, timing and decisions were all near flawless. Let’s hope we see that again.
by TaylorTRoom on Jan 6, 2010 7:44 AM CST reply actions
My question is why the change in tone Scipio? Before the CCGs, you were saying we matched up much better with Alabama? I agree with your points though. There is much to be afraid of.
by Monahorns on Jan 6, 2010 7:54 AM CST reply actions
I wish I didn’t so fervently agree with your conclusions. Try as I might, I’ve been struggling all week to stay positive about the game. Everything is made worse by the fact that Bama is coming off of its best game of the year and we are coming off 2 of our worst. Anyway, thanks for making concrete some of the inchoate fears kicking around in my brain. Good piece, as usual.
by ghostofagroundgame on Jan 6, 2010 7:56 AM CST reply actions
Good post.
The only thing I would take issue with is the tightness argument – Texas was favored vs. both a hobbled/diminished OU and a Nebraska team that is still trying to get its offensive playbook back from Scott Frost, anything short of a victory in either of those games would be regarded (rightfully) as the greatest failboat since the Titanic, so the nervousness and bedwetting in those games was a bit less inexplicable.
At this point, I actually consider this season as a success, the minimum standards (big 12 champs, BCS bowl appearance) have been met and anything on top is gravy. A loss to Alabama doesn’t seem as if it would be completely unacceptable unless it unfolds in OU vs. USC style of sheer embarrassment. it seems as if the players feel the same way, judging from the orgiastic joy with which they approached Space Mountain.
by Camus on Jan 6, 2010 7:58 AM CST reply actions
TTR is one of my favorite posters here and elsewhere. Having said that, stating that there is 36.5% chance of Texas winning this game is far sillier and baseless than trying to find “intangibles” in the Horns’ favor. I mean really.
Really? 36.5%?">)
by beowulf on Jan 6, 2010 8:02 AM CST reply actions
Without all the detail, this was how I was looking at the game. The right team is favored. Invoking James Brown (the QB), it’s much easier to foresee Alabama winning 31-14 than Texas by the same score.
I can’t help but be pessimistic about the offense. GD is going to do what he does, and, unless Colt is channeling VY, that will get us what it usually gets us against good teams.
And if they start the game with that wide receiver screen with no blockers, I’ll probably go watch the college basketball doubleheader on CBS College Sports.
by Bob in Houston on Jan 6, 2010 8:05 AM CST reply actions
’wulf, 4 point dogs win the game outright about 35% of the time. ">)
Of course, that’s assuming the line doesn’t have some irrational bias in it. In 2005, USC was favored by 7 over Texas, but I think Huck will tell you the line should have been much smaller. Is this line irrational? Are people making too much of the recent games (Bama’s great showing and our near fiasco)? Maybe.
One reason for optimism is that the 30+ day break between this game and the last game tends to destroy teams’ momentum, for the good or the bad. Is that an intangible?
by TaylorTRoom on Jan 6, 2010 8:13 AM CST reply actions
Well, it’s about damned time. Welcome back.
I have much of the same impressions; not in as much depth, but in general the success of Texas will hinge on whether our OL can do a credible job in pass protection, and whether we can (will) do anything to keep Alabama’s defense honest and a little off-balance. Boom will be fine, assuming that his guys aren’t on the field for 40 minutes and just get worn out.
“Whether it’s zone read, running QB lead draws, encouraging run-pass option boots, or, imagine, just running real goddamn running plays without asking everyone to reach block.”
Ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha!
Here’s to hoping for a moment of clarity from Greg tomorrow evening.
by Levander Williams on Jan 6, 2010 8:28 AM CST reply actions
Great write-up Scip! Now if you’ll excuse me I’m going to go shoot myself in the face.
by nordberg on Jan 6, 2010 8:29 AM CST reply actions
This was good and all, but I don’t know how any of you could feel adequately prepared for a national title game without a pep talk from Clipper Cooper.
by Hiphopotamus on Jan 6, 2010 8:33 AM CST reply actions
Pretty much agree with your thoughts. I’m not sure we will ever fully understand what a solid tight end would have meant to this offense.
by lazer2280 on Jan 6, 2010 8:35 AM CST reply actions
Mike Piazza believes in a solid tight end.
M-U-D-H-O-L-E!!!! C’mon CTJ. We need one for reals.
by ghostofagroundgame on Jan 6, 2010 8:39 AM CST reply actions
I’m not sure I’ll ever understand how we can have like nine TE’s on the roster and none can even be considered “solid”.
by nordberg on Jan 6, 2010 8:40 AM CST reply actions
excellent work, man.
I’m sliding up and down the stages of grief. Yesterday I fell back into denial. Today I’m bargaining. I have moments of Acceptance and Hope, but they are fleeting. They whole thing is very frustrating, because unlike in 2005, I’m accutely aware that this game will not only rely on the players on the field, but also Greg Davis, who is just inconsistent enough to pull something special out of his pants, but is more likely to leave us feeling like HenryJames girlfriend.
by BatesHorn on Jan 6, 2010 8:47 AM CST reply actions
German humor is not tangible?
Someone needs to reread Mein Kamph. It’s a knee slapper..
by R. Triltsch on Jan 6, 2010 8:47 AM CST reply actions
TTR. 3 out of the last 4 ’dogs in the CG have won the title. Texas has a 75% chance of winning tomorrow.
by beowulf on Jan 6, 2010 8:51 AM CST reply actions
Call it an intangible or call it what ever you want — but this is a game of 19 and 20 year olds.
Bama’s players are at an age range deficient of life’s maturity and perspective. These guys have listened for a solid month that this game is a mere formality and a coronation. After all, they are part of the greatest conference to ever squeeze a football.
Frame of mind or lack of focus aren’t variables to brush-off like lint in a game like football (or really any sport). If Bama comes out overwhelmed by the moment or believes they are superhuman (as 19 year boys often do), then the first quarter could define the game. See Utah 2008, OU vs. BSU 2006, Florida vs. Mich 2007.
The erratic nature of college sports is what makes it so entertaining.
by mockingbird on Jan 6, 2010 9:07 AM CST reply actions
Bad news on the OL front. AAS reports today that McWhorter is NOT retiring after this year, saying in effect: “Why would I retire? I’ve got nothing else to do.”
We all know that Greg Davis is worthless without a Heisman Trophy candidate at qb, a Bilitnekoff Award winner at wr, and an All-American tight end. Since it has become obvious that Buckner is mediocre at best [6 catches in the last 3 games], the offense has totally bogged down and will not likely be any better tomorrow.
by ransomstoddard on Jan 6, 2010 9:10 AM CST reply actions
The world has not seen this much crap compiled in one place since the Big Stink.
by Cincohorn on Jan 6, 2010 9:14 AM CST reply actions
Mac, I don’t think you understand… you ARE retiring after this year. Get it?
by Mack Brown on Jan 6, 2010 9:15 AM CST reply actions
I am more optimistic about our Special Teams Coverage. I’m sure we use Scott and I bet see a big change for the better.
by LoneOptimist on Jan 6, 2010 9:17 AM CST reply actions
Then again…
“Coach [Brown] says he wants to rotate guys a lot to keep people fresh. More than in most games,” said Chiles, who has 34 catches this season. “So I hope to make the most out of my chances.”
Yeah!!
by LoneOptimist on Jan 6, 2010 9:21 AM CST reply actions
I’m not neither. I’m intuitive, and my intuition tells me you get those Bama boys outta the South and the resulting dumbstruckness crimps their style.
(Tha’s a true double neg, btw. Negating a negative state don’t qualify.)
by OldTimeHorn on Jan 6, 2010 9:24 AM CST reply actions
Damn. That is pretty much how I feel.
The one thing that I am holding onto that I want to believe is tangible: 82% of the money bet on the game thus far is on Alabama. That is a big disparity. And in case you haven’t noticed, the people taking those bets are a lot better at what they do than the people placing the bets.
That is all I got. What is more tangible than cash?
by Bartoncreek on Jan 6, 2010 9:30 AM CST reply actions
OldTime has a point. McClain did stay his ass in his hotel room with a bad case of the stupid yesterday.
by Cincohorn on Jan 6, 2010 9:33 AM CST reply actions
Fuck it. I was really happy leading up to this and thought we would win by 10. I still think that is possible, but I could see us just as easily shitting the bed and losing. I would really not be surprised by any outcome in this game.
That said, we have had an immensely successful season, and won the conference title, which is the goal from spring practice. As someone else said above, anything else is gravy.
Oh, and I’m still believing the “blew their wad” argument, and the “Saban will have his team too tight” argument. If we play well on ST, we win by 10.
Whew, looks like I’m making it full circle!
by uthookem on Jan 6, 2010 9:36 AM CST reply actions
Hey Barton, where does the 82% number come from? Shouldn’t they have altered the line?
by uthookem on Jan 6, 2010 9:38 AM CST reply actions
Ca$h money. Thanks Bartoncreek, I actually feel a little better. That almost cancels out the thought of Kirkendoll and Chiles starting at WR. And I betcha that they do too.
We can win this game. No doubt. We can come out and have Malc run a double-move on the outside on our first play, with a fake bubble screen to the other side of the field. Colt can come out totally dialed in and hit 90% of his passes. We can start to run Shipley on routes where the inevitable double team on him immediately opens up Goodwin in space (I’m thinking short crossing routes, 5 yards and X, kind of a Tech-type thing — we need Goodwin, because this is a YAC kind of thing). We can throw 5 -7 screen passes to Tre Newton out of spread sets when Bama blitzes and is in zone coverage, provided that we get some second level blocking from our receivers. We can also come out with Greg Smith/Cody Johnson at blocking fullback and run some legitimate two-back sets, then use that for a little play-action. We can hit 50% of our passes over 20 yards, mostly to Malc. Some combination of these things gets us a win.
Similarly, we can corner blitz McElroy in the first series and make him gently retarded for the rest of the game. Bama is not going to run too, too many sets which expose our safety deficiency (and thinness at cornerback), which is going to be good for us. We need our defense to step it up and we need at least three turnovers.
So, shit, we can totally win this game. We just need to play our best game of the season, And if you can’t do that for the national championship then you don’t deserve to be national champion. That’s it fellas.
by ghostofagroundgame on Jan 6, 2010 9:41 AM CST reply actions
Never a good sign when I haven’t even made it through the post’s title and I’ve already encountered a word I don’t understand.
by WhoooTex on Jan 6, 2010 9:43 AM CST reply actions
In 2006 I grew more and more confident as we neared game time, such that I was genuinely expecting a 2-3 touchdown beatdown of USC. In 2010, I’m becoming more and more pessimistic as kickoff nears. Something about not having a being from another planet at QB that can overcome shitty playcalls.
by stuckinmn on Jan 6, 2010 9:49 AM CST reply actions
“Hey Barton, where does the 82% number come from? Shouldn’t they have altered the line?”
A week ago it was Bama -5. Now it’s -3.5. If all the money is going on Bama, shouldn’t that line be going the other way?
by nordberg on Jan 6, 2010 9:54 AM CST reply actions
I’m a bit more optimistic.
The blueprint for UT on D is pretty clear: take away the run and force Bama to throw the ball. Intercept some of those passes. There is a decent chance that could happen.
On O, Mack/GD had to be shocked out of thier complacency by the Huskers (9 sacks!). You have to hope that Major and Will get invoved in the O game planning. Bama is not used to defending the passing spread attack (the SEC and Bama being more run oriented) so that works to UT’s advantage.
Muschamp will make Mack/GD realize that this game will be a defensive struggle: the key things for the O is to not turn the ball over, make some first downs, and recognize its limitations. The horns are not going to magically start running well (or even OK) vs Bama. The OL is not going to block well enough for many deep or even intermediate passes. The horns O will live or die on their short passing attack.
UT knows how Bama will defend: contempt for the UT run, pressure on the WRs, zone blitz Colt, and probably a couple safeties deep. Very quick crossing patterns (ala Leach) will be effective.
Rolling Colt out renders Mount Cody useless (no need to even block him) and buys some time for longer passes. Since Colt throws well on the run, roll him out a bunch.
Put one of the WRs in moton so it is hard to jam him.
I’d go 4 wide most of the time. The UT OL probably does not block the Bama DL well even with a TE so what’s the point? Make sure that one of the WRs on each side is an effective blocker for those WR screens. Might consider playing Cody at WR: throw him short passes to get him isolated on a DB and get more effective blocking at WR. Cobb might be a good guy to put at WR: he can catch the ball and blocks very well.
Alternatively, UT could add a FB or H back to help in blitz pickup (rather than a TE). Cody at FB should be good at blitz pickup and will much more of an offensive threat than Greg Smith at TE.
Run a lot more screens than usual so the UT OL can block LBs and DBs instead of DL.
Christian Scott is back for this game, that will help (especially on special teams).
by kafka on Jan 6, 2010 9:57 AM CST reply actions
German humor:
child: mommy, there are some men singing outside the door
mom: well, give them some money and maybe they’ll go away
child: but one of them is daddy
OK, so that wasn’t in German, but that’s a German joke. Twenty years later, I still don’t get it.
by spider on Jan 6, 2010 9:57 AM CST reply actions
That’s OK Whooo. Scipio is obviously feeling a little dephlogisticated in his belly after the holidays. This can be caused by excessive intake of bacon or ESPN coverage.
by Cincohorn on Jan 6, 2010 10:02 AM CST reply actions
Scipio is a vegan so it must have been ESPN.
by HenryJames on Jan 6, 2010 10:09 AM CST reply actions
When going into a big game for my team, I always first start by asking myself how much a win is worth to me, in dollars. A NC win is probably worth about $2500 to me (my wheel of fortune gig not paying as much as you think). thus, I bet $2500 on my team to lose. So win or lose, I win.
by Pat Sajak on Jan 6, 2010 10:11 AM CST reply actions
You must be right because your Poland analogies are spot on. I should know.
I do, however, put more faith in intangibles and team chemistry than you do. I’m just not sure they favor us in this game. Bama’s team chemistry and intangibles looked pretty great against Florida. Our defense’s did against Nebraska.
It seems pretty clear that there is a serious loss of faith between Colt and the O-line that is effecting everything from his decision making to his throwing mechanics.
Historically, teams that have looked great in their conference championship games have done well in the MNC game. Teams that have not, or did not play a conference championship game, not so much.
by Kosciuszko on Jan 6, 2010 10:15 AM CST reply actions
This game is obviously 50/50. Either we win or we don’t.
I’m going to stick with our BCS trend. We win in the last minute. If it comes down to another 45 yarder, I hope we’re kicking it, because Tiffin is one of only a few better than Lawrence.
Was that a Beck’s commercial a few years back? “I just flew in from Hamburg, and boy are my ahms tired. Zank you, I be heyah all za week.”
Oh, and I will be seeing Asgard one day. All in due time.
by magnusbleuveigner on Jan 6, 2010 10:16 AM CST reply actions
Over under on number of stories about Alabama being the greatest football team ever if they win?
by fswood21 on Jan 6, 2010 10:22 AM CST reply actions
While I agree with most everything in the post, I hope to hell the team is thinking about it differently.
Rationality leads me to expect a loss, but I was also expecting one in 2008 against OU. Special teams will make or break us, as they did in that game.
Intangibles do matter in sports (though many “intangibles” are rather easily quantified), and anything we can do to get or keep the initiative momentum-wise could very well win this game for us. If we are constantly behind the chains, going three-and-out, etc., it will be too late before we know it.
Here’s to McElroy channeling his inner Zac Lee, and all the plays that Greg Davis has been saving all year for this game!
by emmett fitzhume on Jan 6, 2010 10:25 AM CST reply actions
I’m going to pass Mack and Greg in my stool.
by Nick Saban on Jan 6, 2010 10:26 AM CST reply actions
Regarding faith: the Fellowship of Christian Athletes just awarded Colt the Bobby Bowden Award honoring the FBS student-athlete who conducts himself as a faith model in the community, in the classroom and on the field. So now we just have to figure out how phlogiston works in our favor.
by Magnificent Bastard on Jan 6, 2010 10:27 AM CST reply actions
Bobby Bowden just lost 14 wins for very un-Christian like practices. Old people get a pass don’t they?
by magnusbleuveigner on Jan 6, 2010 10:33 AM CST reply actions
Intangibles are what brought down the Titanic and the Hindenburg and they will bring down Bama.
by texoz on Jan 6, 2010 10:34 AM CST reply actions
“Historically, teams that have looked great in their conference championship games have done well in the MNC game. Teams that have not, or did not play a conference championship game, not so much.”
Excluding of course 4 of the past 5 years:
2008 OU wins B12CCG 62-21 and then gets trounced by the Gators
2007 Eventual champ LSU needs late touchdown to beat mediocre Tennessee in SEC CGG
2006 UF plays worst game of year against Dick then dicks OSU
2004 A CCG free USC beats up OU despite 42-3 Big 12 buffalo butt rape
by Cincohorn on Jan 6, 2010 10:34 AM CST reply actions
Where’s there’s a Will, there’s a way, and I’m sticking to that quip.
Fantastic article as always, Scip!
by A.Deal.O. on Jan 6, 2010 10:41 AM CST reply actions
82% is a composite number of the biggest online sports books current wager total on the game. It is an accurate sample size.
I am not sure I want to get into all of the details of line movement here. But, it doesn’t work quite like the public thinks it does. The line has been holding between 3.5 and 4 despite the heavy public action on Bama. The reason they have not moved it up to capture more Texas bettors (or less Bama bettors) is likely because there are a number of big professionals that are willing to hammer Texas at 4.5 and higher. The books will take their chances, so far, going against the public and avoiding “the sharks” big money.
That could change if the money keeps flowing in on Bama or if the sharks won’t bite at 3.5 and they need to even out their bets to some extent. But, make no mistake, the line isn’t always set or moved to a number where the books can capture 50% of the wagers. Sometimes it is. In my opinion, it isn’t being set there in this instance. That is when you want to be on the side of the books. So in this case, take Texas with the smarter people.
by Bartoncreek on Jan 6, 2010 10:41 AM CST reply actions
“Regarding faith: the Fellowship of Christian Athletes just awarded Colt the Bobby Bowden Award.”
Is that the award given to the student-athlete that hasn’t banged Bowden’s granddaughter?
by Nothing Sacred on Jan 6, 2010 10:41 AM CST reply actions
Historically, teams that have looked great in their conference championship games have done well in the MNC game
eh, let’s investigate for entertainment purposes.
2000 OK d. FSU – OK nipped a good KSU team, so this one’s kind of a wash
2001 the U d Neb – No CCG for either team due to Simms meltdown
2002 OSU d the U – no CCG
2003 LSU d OK – theory holds here. Of course, IMO USC was the best this year.
2004 USC d OU – no CCG for USC does’t matter, theory does not hold
2005 UT d USC – theory holds, though could have gone the other way absent a bionic beast wearing #10.
2006 UF d OSU – ostensibly theory holds BUT OSU played UM in their last game of the season in what was effectively a CCG and a play-in game for the BCS title game for the last season, I don’t think the theory holds here.
2007 LSU d OSU – eh, LSU had to come from behind in the 4th to beat a 2-loss Tennessee team 21-14, so this is a wash.
2008 UF d OK – both teams looked good in CCG, so it’s a wash.
So, not a whole ton of history behind that one it looks like.
by Camus on Jan 6, 2010 10:51 AM CST reply actions
In other news, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes also just awarded Brandon Collins the Erik Hardeman Award. We’re going to need a bigger trophy case!!
by nordberg on Jan 6, 2010 10:54 AM CST reply actions
Icebergs are pretty tangible, but perhaps phlogiston brought down the Hindenburg. Or hydrogen. I’m going with phlogiston, and Bama’s coming down like the Hindenburg. Thank you texoz.
by Magnificent Bastard on Jan 6, 2010 10:55 AM CST reply actions
“If you’re the quantitative type, I’m putting our odds at 36.5%. If you’re the qualitative type, I’ll say "sorta shitty."
If you’re neither, I want to know something: just what are you?"
Clipper Cooper has taught me to Synergize qualitative and quantitative with the cunning use of a calculator held upside down.
4517734
by n-ea on Jan 6, 2010 10:58 AM CST reply actions
My biggest worry stems from seeing what Greg Davis and the o-line have said to the media. I haven’t really seen any responsibility taken by anyone for the Nebraska fiasco. Everything basically amounts to, “Yeah, we played like crap, but hey! We still won the game!” Seriously? NINE sacks and all you can say is that you didn’t play your best game and there is room for improvement? How about manning up and just admitting that things need to change? But no! We’re Texas and we’re going to do what we do. Fine. Go do what you do and lose the NC game.
Ugh. Rant done.
by Sasha is a Longhorn Dog on Jan 6, 2010 11:00 AM CST reply actions
WhooTex, you’re not the only one. I had to dictionary dot com it.
by n-ea on Jan 6, 2010 11:08 AM CST reply actions
That FCA award must be bogus if Tebow never won it.
by The Hairline of Wade Boggs on Jan 6, 2010 11:08 AM CST reply actions
I find your lack of faith disturbing, Scipio.
Pull yourself together.
by CloseToJumping on Jan 6, 2010 11:09 AM CST reply actions
To quote BatesHorn on any Saturday night, c’mon CTJ, whip it out.
by nordberg on Jan 6, 2010 11:11 AM CST reply actions
2005 UT d USC – theory holds, though could have gone the other way absent a bionic beast wearing #10.
2006 UF d OSU – ostensibly theory holds BUT OSU played UM in their last game of the season in what was effectively a CCG and a play-in game for the BCS title game for the last season, I don’t think the theory holds here.
2005 could use 2006’s logic here. USC destroyed UCLA something like 66-19 the same day we torched Colorado. Sure, it wasn’t a play-in game, but they played a rivalry game as recently as we played a championship game and they played well.
by Huckleberry on Jan 6, 2010 11:12 AM CST reply actions
Well, by definition a Christian is a follower of Jesus. Hence, a folower of Tebow. Tebow can’t be a follower of himself, thus, he is ineligible for the award.
by Bartoncreek on Jan 6, 2010 11:15 AM CST reply actions
I have something coming. Work is eating me alive. Give me the lunch hour.
by CloseToJumping on Jan 6, 2010 11:15 AM CST reply actions
Bama goes up by two TD’s in the first half, Texas responds and scores a FG before the end of the half, and goes on to win the game.
Count it!
Nothing about Muschamp’s defense is intangible, and we all know Colt and Co. have underperformed in big games this year for a variety of reasons, but we also know they’re capable of much more. Our special teams can be explosive, if not downright unbelievable.
I’d like to believe that our A-Level talent runs deeper and is more experienced than Bama’s, and like the OU game last year, unless we’re down by more than 14, we’re still in the game.
This is one of the winningest teams in college football history, that is 3-0 in their bowl games. They’ve got better than a 36.5% chance to win this game.
Let next year be Bama’s year. This year can be ours.
by Capt. Obvious on Jan 6, 2010 11:27 AM CST reply actions
Next year can be ours too. Screw Bama.
by Magnificent Bastard on Jan 6, 2010 11:41 AM CST reply actions
If we open with a WR screen there’s greater than a 36.5% chance I phlog Greg Davis.
Scip – lighten up, Francis.
by Harsh on Jan 6, 2010 11:58 AM CST reply actions
“In other news, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes also just awarded Brandon Collins the Erik Hardeman Award”
Pflugerville …just like Compton.
Brenham…just like Compton.
by Levander Williams on Jan 6, 2010 12:04 PM CST reply actions
My landscaper brought me pieces of mescal from an agave cactus in Chiapas. I’m going to chew on some of them and then reread your post to see if I feel more upbeat. If not, we’re going to get killed by Bama.
by Trips Right on Jan 6, 2010 12:12 PM CST reply actions
“Let me suggest that petty motivations will lose their value around the same time we hit James Kirkendoll for -2 on our opening play.”
This is just bullshit. No way Kirkendoll catches that pass.
by EastSideHorn on Jan 6, 2010 12:13 PM CST reply actions
“This is just bullshit. No way Kirkendoll catches that pass.”
Sadly, it would be a better outcome if he doesn’t. I was actually cheering after the first play of Nebraska game because he dropped it and it saved us 2 yards.
by dick on Jan 6, 2010 12:15 PM CST reply actions
Our only hope is that Will and Major grab GD by his orange polyester collar and inject some sanity to our O-scheme and play calling.
by Oink's conscience on Jan 6, 2010 12:39 PM CST reply actions
Always enjoy your blog, Scip. Can you address why you previously stated Ala was a better matchup than Fla? The Big 12CCG meltdown means it makes no difference?
My unheralded heroes for this game: Cody Johnson and Keenan Robinson
by torre on Jan 6, 2010 12:46 PM CST reply actions
If Texas wins it will be close 20-19 type game
If Bama wins, they will beat UT by plenty 17+ (34-13)
by tree on Jan 6, 2010 12:49 PM CST reply actions
Underdogs? Bitch, this is the year of the underdog. Just ask TCU, Oregon, and Georgia Tech. We got this.
by yojimbox on Jan 6, 2010 12:55 PM CST reply actions
"Yeah, we played like crap, but hey! We still won the game!"
and its close cousin, “Boy that Suh guy sure is good, huh? Glad we out of that one! Whew!”
by johnnymac on Jan 6, 2010 1:02 PM CST reply actions
Always enjoy your blog, Scip. Can you address why you previously stated Ala was a better matchup than Fla? The Big 12CCG meltdown means it makes no difference?
Just because it’s a pessimistic outlook doesn’t mean that its not better than the Florida one would be.
by johnnymac on Jan 6, 2010 1:04 PM CST reply actions
I just chewed on some mescal and all I can see are the words “Recency Bias Recency Bias Recency BIas”.
by Trips Right on Jan 6, 2010 1:14 PM CST reply actions
“Seriously? NINE sacks and all you can say is that you didn’t play your best game and there is room for improvement?”
Sasha, I wanna kiss you. I couldn’t care less about our o-line struggllliiiiiing. What we know, is we can improve. We’re lookin’ to next season…We’re lookin’ to make noise now…I wanna kiss you! Yeeeaahhh!!!!!
by Joe Willie on Jan 6, 2010 1:20 PM CST reply actions
hey namath, it’s “straaahh-gaah-ling”
man, between this scipio post and Chris Hall’s fat smiling face, my confidence is shot. not even the mudhole post can save me now.
If you want to feel better, take the under. That way you can subconsciously enjoy Greg Davis’ play calling tomorrow.
by dick on Jan 6, 2010 1:35 PM CST reply actions
Talk about your dark comedy. Scipio, you make Twin Peaks look like a F’ing Disney flick. Can’t argue with your logic, but shit man…keep it to yourself. Don’t you know we’ve stopped really trying to understand this team? Wyoming killed that for me.
It is ALLLL about the intangibles, dude. How else could you explain 13-0? With the exception of Mizzou, there wasn’t really a game in the bunch that was about predictable execution. These guys gave us coronaries for sport. Thank God they didn’t play Lake Travis High…LT would have thumped ’em and Davis would have stroked out. (Hmmm…….nah.)
Don’t kill our pixie-dust buzz with this truth bullshit. Fat, dumb and happy is, in fact, a lovely way to hang out on this pebble.
Hook’em Horns…Bama is an over-rated bunch of inbreeds.
by Bill on Jan 6, 2010 1:38 PM CST reply actions
I love how Kafka mentions a dozen things that could work but will never in a thousand years happen under Davis and Mack.
I too thing scipio is understating emotions and the mental aspect of things.
by Bighornfan32 on Jan 6, 2010 1:59 PM CST reply actions
If Scipio were to give you some money from out of his wallet, would that help ease the pain?
by HenryJames on Jan 6, 2010 2:32 PM CST reply actions
Sadly, I have to agree with Scip. Bama will block our defensive front enough better than we will block theirs to win a hard-fought game. We will need a killer defensive effort, some well-timed mistakes from McElroy and a non-offensive TD. These things could certainly happen but I don’t like counting on them.
I will be delighted to be proven wrong.
by hopefulhorn on Jan 6, 2010 2:33 PM CST reply actions
The evildoers have been stricken down by the curse this year. Graham Harrell doesn’t sniff the NFL, Trabtree gets a late start in the League due to ignorance and hubris, and Leach gets canned. Stoops gets hit with the injury bug, and Bradford gets shoulderized. Now it’s Carl Pelini’s turn for screaming about unworthytrophyness. Saban is up next.
Colt makes some huge plays late as Texas comes from behind.
Tangible this:
Texas 20
Bama 16
by Art Vandelay on Jan 6, 2010 3:28 PM CST reply actions
Mike Piazza loves the term “comes from behind!”*
*Ever since 1986 I’ve hated the Mets like nothing else.
by ghostofagroundgame on Jan 6, 2010 3:38 PM CST reply actions
Ahahaha RIght on, Dude!! Those (alabama) guys are f*gs!!!
by Jeff Spicoli on Jan 6, 2010 4:17 PM CST reply actions
More importantly – WHERE IS CLIPPER DURING THIS TECH COACHING CHANGE?!?! THIS IS HIS FINEST HOUR!!!!!!!!!!!
by bizzle on Jan 6, 2010 4:24 PM CST reply actions
“The evildoers have been stricken down by the curse this year. Graham Harrell doesn’t sniff the NFL, Trabtree gets a late start in the League due to ignorance and hubris, and Leach gets canned. Stoops gets hit with the injury bug, and Bradford gets shoulderized. Now it’s Carl Pelini’s turn for screaming about unworthytrophyness. Saban is up next.”
Is it safe to call this an intangible that matters? It seems to be the one overriding theme for the 2009 Longhorns. I’ve been amazed at how consistently this has worked all year.
Out of curiosity, did Saban have a coaches vote in 2008? If so, what was his vote?
by Levander Williams on Jan 6, 2010 4:45 PM CST reply actions
I’d like to believe that the sum of a football team amounts to more than just the quality of their last game.
What would everyone be saying if the Auburn game was Alabama’s last instead of Florida? Finally taking the lead 26-21 in the final minute is nothing to brag or write home about. The same goes double for us. Imagine if we were coming off the Aggie game as our last. Hell, Colt might as well be Jesus walking on water, and all of us believers, not a doubter in the bunch. The Heisman would have already had his name on it when he landed in NY. Muschamp would be the one left scratching his head while Greg Davis would be the one coming out smelling like a rose. And if this was the way the season had ended, you better believe folks would have a whole new perspective on things.
The worth of our Texas Longhorns is more than just their worst game of the season. So to those who would ask, “What have you done for me lately?” I’m not worried, this aint yesterday, it’s today. So what are you gonna do for me now?
Keep the Faith
by The Republic on Jan 6, 2010 5:00 PM CST reply actions
Re OldTimeHorn:
“I’m not neither. I’m intuitive, and my intuition tells me you get those Bama boys outta the South and the resulting dumbstruckness crimps their style.”
Reminds me of my first post-pubertal experience on the west coast – frosh spring break spent with high school friend at campus of cal santa cruz. I could barely talk or know what to say. I regained consciousness at one point due to lack of air following a stroh’s team 40 pack competition because a cali girl somehow ended up sitting on my face. The first reason I couldn’t talk was differnt.
After being there a few times, you know how to move.
by triplehorn on Jan 6, 2010 6:54 PM CST reply actions
My head agrees with you Scipio. That was hard to type.
That being said I propose we agree to cast aside logic like the tarnished whore that she is. Constantly thwarting our dreams with her cold precision as legions of Huckleberries spread her word and defile our temples of Clutch. We are all interconnected, Scipio. Let us kneel together before the alter of The Intangible. It’s shaped like Gary Hogeboom, a parking meter, and a pterodactyl.
Our cause is righteous. We will manufacture a running game. Boom Motherfucker! will be heard in the halls of
Asgard. We will see the enemy driven before us, and hear the lamentations of the women.
Also if we win you have to come to mass with me and do all of the stand-up/sit-down stuff as penance.
by Doperbo on Jan 6, 2010 9:18 PM CST reply actions
I laugh at your besmirchment of my beloved.
Behold, from Mandel:
“At Sunday’s media session, I spent some time at Texas center Chris Hall’s riser. Hall seems like an incredibly nice guy. He had a big smile on his face the entire time he was up there. I wish the guy no harm. But when asked what reason people should have to believe that his O-line will fare better against the Tide’s defense than it did against Nebraska, Hall’s reply was simply: “If we don’t, we’ll be in trouble.” Then he burst out laughing. It didn’t exactly fill me with confidence."
by Jesus on Jan 6, 2010 9:44 PM CST reply actions
I choose to read that as “then he burst out laughing, like the Joker after showing off his pencil trick”. Then I pretend it’s Studdard, and not Hall. Then I pretend that Sendlein is next to him. Then I take a break, and pretend that Alba gets up and Winona Ryder takes over for her.
by nordberg on Jan 6, 2010 9:56 PM CST reply actions
Jeezus nordberg, Alba to Ryder? WTF? Your fantasies have fluffers?
by Trips Right on Jan 6, 2010 11:33 PM CST reply actions
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!
Why is our team even bothering to show up? They should just forfeit now and save us all the embarrassment.
by SpiralOut on Jan 7, 2010 1:34 AM CST reply actions
I’ve got a thing for her Trips. Leave me alone.
by nordberg on Jan 7, 2010 8:26 AM CST reply actions
@nordberg,
You and every other middling indie rock dude that’s gotten marginally famous since Dave Pirner.
by ghostofagroundgame on Jan 7, 2010 8:32 AM CST reply actions
Your libel towards the Chupacabra will not be tolerated.
“We need Colt to be involved, obviously. Whether it’s zone read, running QB lead draws, encouraging run-pass option boots, or, imagine, just running real goddamn running plays without asking everyone to reach block. We have to do enough to force some sort of honesty.”
I actually think there’s a decent chance Colt can have some success on the ground against the Tide’s primarily man coverage. Obviously he’s not going to gouge them but like you say, we just need enough to keep them honest. If he manages that then game on.
by Minnesotahorn on Jan 7, 2010 8:37 AM CST reply actions
That McElroy fella is James Street re-incarnated. He’s never lost a game in HS or College.
Nah, that’s in intangible. No way it matters.
I hope.
by Still Worried on Jan 7, 2010 10:56 AM CST reply actions
“Listen, Vince Young was going to lay waste to USC whether he’d won the Heisman in a landslide, was runner-up in Ms. Teen Black America, or won the Publisher’s Clearinghouse Sweepstakes. VY humiliates foes on big stages. He is VY. That is his programming.”
Did the code that programmed VY somehow become corrupt once he went to the NFL? His ability to humiliate foes has seemingly been reverse engineered so that he lays waste to his own well being? If USC had shadowed VY with a SS or LB, and not been so damn arrogant and play straight up, the result would not have been the same. Ok, I am now ready to take heat for that one. Bring it.
by ValhallaRising on Jan 7, 2010 12:04 PM CST reply actions
Hey Texas fans (both of you)!
We came here to castrate the Longhorns & take that trophy back to Bama! You can’t stop the running game anymore than you can prevent 2 to 5 of your players leaving the field in an ambulance. Intangibles? I’m your f*ckin’ intangible. I’m so deep in my players’ heads that they all turn around when someone says, “Hey Nick!” They’re pumped and ready physically AND mentally. They are champions. They are warriors. They will not be dissuaded from their mission: to totally dominate Texas on each play and emerge with the victory. We are the TIDE-ans!
No Hard Feelings,
Coach Nick
by NickSaban on Jan 7, 2010 12:31 PM CST reply actions
“Did the code that programmed VY somehow become corrupt once he went to the NFL? His ability to humiliate foes has seemingly been reverse engineered so that he lays waste to his own well being? If USC had shadowed VY with a SS or LB, and not been so damn arrogant and play straight up, the result would not have been the same. Ok, I am now ready to take heat for that one. Bring it.”
No one in college football had anyone who could shadow Vince. Too big and fast. Brian Cushing, the NFLs DROY, was spying on VY and got owned repeatedly. Just like he did on about 5 third down conversions on MNF a few weeks ago.
VY was leading the nation in pass efficiency to boot. Also, we had big play weapons named Taylor and Charles. Scheme had nothing to do with it. VY could have ran for 200 a game just about any time he needed to. He did not run much that year except for USC or games we got behind in because he had improved so much as a passer and we were trying to keep him healthy. When he needed to, he just destroyed people as a runner.
He has a great record as a starter in the NFL. Part of the reason is having a freak like him touching the ball on every snap helps out his running backs a lot. It does not show up on VY’s stat sheet, but check out Travis Henry’s numbers playing with Collins and with VY. Ask Chris Johnson if he likes Vince taking the snaps. Check out Ced Benson’s numbers with Simms and Mock in the backfield compared to VY. Check out Jamaal Charles 2.1 YPC decline from 2005 with VY to 2006 with Colt and the exact same offensive line and receivers.
Now, he mainly just runs on third downs to extend drives now, which breaks defenses backs. The back 7 in the NFL is too big and fast for him to run all the time and stay healthy. His passing is improving, even though Tennessee still has bottom 25% WRs. A little more improvement from VY and his WRs, and Tennessee’s offense will be unstoppable. Tennessee was 0-6 to start the season. They go 8-2 with VY. That ain’t a coincidence.
by houstonearler on Jan 7, 2010 1:06 PM CST reply actions
hope…rationalization…optimism…confidence…uncertainty…doubt…despair…hope…rationalization…optimsim…confidence…uncertaintly…doubt…despair…hope…rationaliaztion………..
One way or another, the viscous cycle ends tonight. The, perhaps, I’ll be able to focus on other things in life that supposedly matter more…work, health, my wife and kids (what are their names again?!?)
Was ist die Definition der Massenverwirrung?
Vatertag in TAMU.
by Pederast Hanrahan on Jan 7, 2010 1:12 PM CST reply actions
“Bottom line: fear West Africans. And East Africans, if we’re talking Idi Amin.”
Scipio, you forgot to include any specific reference of notable Maasai, the poster-children of East Africa. You really should postulate on the chances for success of a Maasai child growing up in Houston to play
by ValhallaRising on Jan 7, 2010 1:57 PM CST reply actions
houstonearler, I can appreciate your passion and enthusiasm for VY. The best evidence of VY finally grasping the NFL is this years run to 8-2. Frankly, no one could or should defend his actions prior to this spurt. It’s clear he has matured, found inner peace, taken his psychotropics, or just stopped being petulant. I have always liked him as a player and personality. In regards to the USC meltdown versus Texas, USC had shown itself to be narcissistic and arrogant, and if you read their pre-game quotes leading up to that infamous game, you would’ve thought they were going to play UC Davis, not Texas. Further, their SCHEMES, lead their players to be out of position. Darnell Bing should’ve shadowed VY, not Cushing. Scipio wrote it in this article – Saban spent 10 days prior to the SEC title game drawing up fresh and unique schemes to beat Florida. Its not all about the players -or – VY.
by ValhallaRising on Jan 7, 2010 2:10 PM CST reply actions
Very perceptive foresight in this blog.
Mack Brown is a great coach. Gilbert is a promising quarterback.
Texas will be in the National Championship hunt for the next 3 years.
But for this year – Roll Tide!
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