MNC - Some Objective Comparisons

Screw the data, give me intangibles!

(fingers in ears)

lalalalalalalalalalalalalala.

Stats are for losers!!! Boom MFer

Yeah Boom!

What about special teams? Got stats on that? How about Earl Thomas takin’ a pick 6 to the house? Stats?

How about Blake Gideon summersaulting over the O-Line, planting a flying roundhouse in the QB’s grill, stripping the ball and pantsing the bama cheerleaders on the way to the end zone?

<<<>>> Alarm clock sounds….

We have 26.1% more clutch intangibles. You and Scipio must share tampons. We’re going to kick their ass.

Another thing to consider: Alabama’s best offensive performance in terms of differential YPP was against the best defense the Tide faced all year (Florida, 75.4% above the Gators’ average YPPA). In fact, three of their top 5 offensive performances on this measure came against the top three defenses faced by the Tide. Compare that to the Longhorns’ track record against Top 5 defenses, and the advantage to Alabama looks even more substantial.

Nice facts. But, as you imply via your probablistic analysis, you could develop an S curve of probabilities that Texas’s differential performance v. Bama will be better than vice versa. Unless that’s less than about 35% for UT, it looks like a tossup.

We scored 14 on Tennessee.

NBMisha,

It’s a small data set, but these facts trouble me: (1) Texas’ offense performs ineptly against elite defenses and (2) Alabama’s offense excels against elite defenses. Since this subset of data is pretty uniform, it appears very likely that Bama will outperform our D’s YPPA and Texas will underperform Bama’s.

Huck – what does your rankings gizmo project for this game?

Texas wins eleventy billion to zero.

I have three models. The points-only model calls it a tossup (Bama by 0.2 points), while the two models that use yards per play call Bama a 6.5-point favorite.

Do the two YPP models have any accounting for special teams (both in terms of field position and scores), defensive scores or turnovers? If not, that could account for the difference.

Regardless of what happens, they have to go back to living in Alabama.

Also, in both games we shit the bed on offense (especially against NU), we played not to lose. We’ll play a different game tonight.

Fuck! Is it time to leave work yet?

Man, Aggy sure is lucky that nobody on that campus is capable of statistical analysis. Had they known how statistically inferior they were, they probably wouldn’t have showed up for the game and almost beaten us………………..

yes…the children have left the school building…even though in 7th period golf athletics i let them watch the golf channel and we flipped to college football live during the commercial breaks…i wanted to watch it the whole time, but I had to maintain some sort of integrity.

Twain said it best: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

I may have paraphrased a bit, but you get the point.

Screw Bama, Hook ’Em Horns!

Also, do the stats include the bowl games?

Yes.

Who is your daddy, and what does he do?

Twain said it best: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

These statistics don’t lie about the past. Let’s hope they’re poor predictors of the near future. The D will keep us in the game, the special teams will provide some sparks, and hopefully the offense bucks its own trends.

What about doing the same thing with points instead of yards per play? Would be interesting to see.

Turnovers yes. Return yardage and scores no. And that is almost certainly the source of the discrepancy.

Fico – points is a pain in the ass for me, because I don’t think the NCAA’s statistics website distinguishes between offensive and defensive/ST scores. I’m too lazy to track all that on my own by, for example, digging through box scores for each game. So I can’t do that comparison on a separate basis for the offense and defense.

I believe the score-based model Huck referred to relies on the total points scored/allowed by each team. According to this measure, Texas and Bama are very close.

More statistics and a prediction from Mackovic:

http://www.mydesert.com/article/20100107/COLUMNS46/1070337/1026/news12/I-ve-done-the-research-you-don-t-have-to

One last thing after coaching the Longhorns for six seasons, I can tell you this. Those boys will always play up to the competition.

Oh, the irony.

Your analysis is flawed. You are not taking into account special teams or red zone efficiency.

Borrowing heavily from espn…

“Alabama finished 116th in the nation in kickoff coverage, allowing 25.66 yards per kick. Texas finished fourth in the nation in kickoff returns, with 27.38 yards per return. You don’t need an expert to tell you that the Longhorns have an advantage here. The Crimson Tide’s problems skewed earlier in the season than late. But Texas had 14 kickoff returns of at least 26 yards. The average says that it will happen at least once Thursday night. Advantage, Longhorns.”

The other big one is red-zone scoring. “Both offenses are efficient in the red zone. Texas has scored on 95 percent of its drives (53-of-56); Alabama is right behind at 85 percent (47-55). Both have dependable kickers. The difference is that the Longhorns don’t call on Hunter Lawrence as often as the Crimson Tide call on Leigh Tiffin. Texas has crossed the goal line on 71 percent of its red zone drives (40-56); Alabama is stuck at 45 percent (25-55).”

Basically, it don’t mean a hairy rats ass if they average more yards per play IF THEY CAN’T SCORE A TD. This team went through a 4 game stretch with only 2 offensive TD’s. Put another way… you can go 10 yards per play and go 2 yards per play inside the 20 and get just 3 pts… or go 8 yards a play and score 7 pts inside the 20. We are basically option #2.

 We are the #3 scoring offense for a reason…a full 9 pts more per game… because that stat takes into account defensive TD’s and Special teams and Red zone performance.

Like you, Donny, I’m pinning my hopes on ST and defense. I hope those make more of a difference than our ineptitude against top defenses.

Oh, and you’re out of your element. Not really. But I couldn’t resist.

Chinaman is not the preferred nomenclature.

All I got out of Mackovic’s article is this: “John Mackovic is a La Quinta resident.” BWAHAHAHA!

I should’ve prefaced my comments with ‘good stuff’. Just not the complete picture. :)

It’s easy to look good in these numbers when you play a bunch of SEC teams for whom three points is a statistically significant increase or decrease.

It’s funny that everyone keeps pretending like Alabama is some kind of juggernaut. They’re not. They’re coming off of their best game of the season. We are coming off of our worst. Football is a funny game. It ain’t like this is Cincy vs. Fla.

It’s funny that everyone keeps pretending like Alabama is some kind of juggernaut.

I don’t think Alabama is a juggernaut. But they’re better than OU and Nebraska, two teams we played at neutral sites and were lucky to beat. That said, this Texas team has a knack for surviving close games, no matter the opponent.

“Sir, if you don’t shut up I’m going to kick 100% of your ass!!”
                          — Brad Hamilton

Once again, it looks like Texas’ offense will be the trouble spot.

I hate to say “I told you so,” but…

In all seriousness, what a fucked-up game. Texas’ defense and special teams were exceptional. Yes, the defense played well last night. Only 14 or 17 of Bama’s 37 points fell on the D, and we held them to under 300 total yards despite having no offensive support for 30 minutes. The offense did what it could while fighting with one hand behind it’s back and, frankly, far exceeded my expectations in the second half.