Big 12 Hoops Title Chase

by Barking Carnival Staff on Jan 19, 2010 10:11 AM CST in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

Yes, I am starting to think about this already. Our basketball program has finally reached the point where it's all about the end and not the journey. Big 12 Title and Tournament success or bust. Our football team has been there for quite a while so we should recognize the feeling. I'll break the race down between the "contenders". Along the way, some teams may ascend to contender status (aTm, Ok St) while some may fall out (OU). I'll try to update it weekly.

The Contenders

Kansas 2-0 16-1
Kansas State 3-1 16-2
Texas 3-1 17-1
Missouri 2-1 14-4
Baylor 2-1 14-2
Oklahoma 2-2 11-7

Losable Games

Now there could be some upsets along the way but here are the games I see that are possible losses:

KU (5) - @ KSU (1/30), @ Texas (2/8), @ ATM (2/15), @ OSU (2/27), @ Mizz (3/6)

KSU (4) - @ Baylor, KU (1/30), @ OU (2/20), @ KU (3/3)

Texas (6) - @ OSU (2/1), @ OU (2/6), KU (2/8), @ Mizzou (2/17), @ ATM (2/27), @ Baylor (3/6)

Missouri (5) - @ KU (1/25), @ Baylor (2/13), Texas (2/17), @ KSU (2/27), KU (3/6)

Baylor (8) - @ KU (1/20), KSU (1/26), @ Texas (1/30), @ ATM (2/6), Mizzou (2/13), @ OSU (2/20), @ OU (2/27), Texas (3/6). Unlikely to remain on this list for long.

Oklahoma - Every game except Tech and Iowa St at home. They won't be included on this list for long either but their wins vs OSU and Mizzou get them on here for now.

Looking at it this way makes me pretty ill about Texas' chances for a regular season Big 12 title. We definitely have to take care of business at home, including the February 8th game against KU. But the other pitfall I see is that game at Mizzou on 2/17. They always seem to give us trouble (beat us the last 2 years?). I'm sure it'll be an 8pm ESPN game and be very similar to last night's game. With losses to KSU and Mizzou, it'll be hard to get the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Of course, we will have the wins over MSU, Pitt, UNC (i guess that's a positive?) and hopefully @ UConn to boost our NCAA profile.

Anybody else already have Houston Regional tickets (besides me) getting concerned that they'll be watching UK or KU that weekend?

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Comments

Would the Houston regional be the one that either KU or UK would want as a top seed? Texas doesn’t necessarily have to be the top overall seed to get placed there. They just need to be the highest seeded team that the committee views as wanting to be placed there.

by anonymous on Jan 19, 2010 10:14 AM CST reply actions

That’s a good point anonymous, we could actually be the 2 seed (highest ranked 2 seed) and get placed in Houston just like in 2008. I think KU and UK would prefer to be in St Louis and the best of those two teams will get placed there. I think the second option for those two teams would be Houston (over Syracuse in the East Region). So if we are the 3rd or 4th ranked #1 seed behind those two teams, I think we go somewhere other than Houston.

by dick on Jan 19, 2010 10:20 AM CST reply actions

If you enter the tournament as a 2 seed, I don’t think you want to be the highest 2 seed. That spot will probably end up in Salt Lake playing the 4th ranked #1 seed.

by Triston27 on Jan 19, 2010 10:33 AM CST reply actions

I don’t think that is predetermined unless you are just assuming that all the West Coast teams suck and therefore the worst East/Middle team will get sent West. I think we all just want whatever gets us to Houston, 1 or 2 seed. If we do what it takes to win the regular season Big 12 title, we probably are guaranteed the 1 seed in Houston. I just don’t see it happening without a 13-3 record at worst. That would require us not shitting the bed in College Station and going 2-1 in our brutal @OSU, @OU, KU stretch.

by dick on Jan 19, 2010 11:03 AM CST reply actions

I don’t think that is predetermined unless you are just assuming that all the West Coast teams suck and therefore the worst East/Middle team will get sent West.

This is exactly what I’m assuming. I think the last #1 seed goes to Salt Lake or Syracuse. And since the Syracuse Orange can’t actually play in Syracuse, this will screw some things up. The big fight is going to be for St. Louis. KU, Kentucky, Tennessee and Michigan State will all want to go there.

by Triston27 on Jan 19, 2010 11:34 AM CST reply actions

I’m just anxious to see the offensive adjustments we make. With this many play-makers, offense should not be this ugly.

by texasengr on Jan 19, 2010 12:44 PM CST reply actions

“This is exactly what I’m assuming.”

That’s a good assumption. KSU can probably be thrown in that mix if they finish #1 in Big 12. Splitting with you guys and beating Mizzou at home could get that done.

by dick on Jan 19, 2010 1:44 PM CST reply actions

That’s a good assumption. KSU can probably be thrown in that mix if they finish #1 in Big 12. Splitting with you guys and beating Mizzou at home could get that done.

You’re absolutely right. I think K-State will throttle OU but may struggle @ Baylor. Winner of the Big 12 gets a #1. It’s even possible that second place gets a #1. As long as it’s KU or Texas. KSU would probably have to win the Conf. Tourney if they don’t win the regular season.

by Triston27 on Jan 19, 2010 3:12 PM CST reply actions

The year we made it to the Final Four, us and OU were 1 seeds. KU made it to the Finals and was a 2 right? I feel the Big 12 is that strong again. Two 1 seeds and a 2 seed. Duke will be in Syracuse.

by dick on Jan 19, 2010 3:39 PM CST reply actions

I deeply appreciate the courtesy of calling OU a “contender”. That said, I think we all can acknowledge that it’s just a matter of time until the wheels fall off of that little red wagon.

by NateHeupel on Jan 19, 2010 4:14 PM CST reply actions

I agree that the conference is that strong. I think we get two #1 seeds and a possible 2. If missouri were a little better on the road I could easily see two #1’s, a 2, and a 3-4. But mu’s loss to OU Saturday will haunt them.

by Triston27 on Jan 19, 2010 4:15 PM CST reply actions

“I deeply appreciate the courtesy of calling OU a "contender". That said, I think we all can acknowledge that it’s just a matter of time until the wheels fall off of that little red wagon.”

Done. Although I am probably more impressed by OU after today’s game than beforehand