Kiper's NFL Mock Draft 1/20/10

Where does Chance Mock project? He won’t mock the position.
Good stuff, d.

Good one.

I’m not sure about Griffen of USC to the Titans to help VY’s 2011 Super Bowl run to Dallas. He doesn’t seem to fit the Tennessee overachiever mold.

Not a fan of Griffen to the Titans

Griffen in the first round is a big reach.

No Colt? Alas, I love the guy, but an NFL first rounder he is not….maybe third round?

No Tebow? If a NFL GM opts on this guy as a QB before the third round I’ll be biting his ass hard a year or two down the line!

No Snead? Bad decision (has this guy ever made a GOOD career decision BTW?) to come out after a very poor year….last year we might have seen a wisp of first round aroma, but no more…second day pick if that…

Where’s Muck? Probably a 4 rounder? A bargain there IMO, but a bit of a reach at 3 or lower for your average NFL GM.

Houston and Alexander? Maybe a late round?

You gotta admit, ou’s 1st round line-up is impressive….and they continue to bring in talent at least as good as ours according to the rating services, albeit from outside Texas now…

But, as you know, I suck….

reality – I had understood that you bite, rather than suck.

Kiper is lazy and his initial Mock Drafts are merely the who’s who of the BCS schools. After the combine half of these guys will be off the list for the no names studs from Delaware and Troy.

BEHorn said:
“reality – I had understood that you bite, rather than suck.”

I’m trying something new these days, and my girlfriend seems to like it….

The Raiders taking Davis is contingent upon him running sub 4.4.

Out of all the Kiper mocks I’ve seen over the years, and I follow this shit closely as well, this one seems to make more sense than most of his others. I like how he mentions Tebow not going at 11. You’d be surprised, but I’ve seen a couple mocks with that scenario. That would be effin awesome, for the same reason Clausen to Buffalo would be.

Dez Bryant is going to be great in the NFL. Obviously that would spell the end for Brandon Marshall if they take him. I wonder if Bryant’s questionable conduct would serve as a deterrent.

I’m a Niner fan, so Earl there would be great. I could also see Kindle going their too. Singles would love both guys football disposition. They have two first rounders, maybe, just maybe.

Reality, Muck is a bargain at four but a reach at three? So where is the perfect slot? I think Houston goes no later than mid third. Colt won’t get passed the top 40. The cliche is, all it takes is for one team to fall in love, see: Philadelphia/Kevin Kolb.

Speaking of Dez Bryant…

I don’t think it got mentioned ’round here, but I suppose it will be a shock to absolutely no one that he signed with Eugene Parker.

I like Brian Price for the Texans. Safety is maybe a bigger need, but the defensive tackle class is so much deeper that we’ll get much better value drafting one. Maybe even pick up two – a guy like Brian Price in the first and Alualu or Houston in the third or second, respectively. I know our track record at the position is terrible, but I’ll just ascribe that to bad luck or long-gone scouting/coaching personnel.

We all know Earl can ball, but it has to make an organization nervous to draft someone who would be the smallest (right?) safety in the NFL. “Mr McCloughan, how could you not predict that someone as light as Thomas would suffer from injuries?” is not the kind of question most GMs want to answer. I’m sure he could play corner if called upon, but that seems like it would waste a good chunk of his instincts and mental game, which are the elements that make him so special. It’ll be interesting to see what he weighs at the combine.

I have to think Clausen will go higher. He’s a fucking great quarterback – big, accurate arm, tough, smart, trained by an NFL guy. He’ll be great in the NFL, even if he’s a douche.

Bryan Bulaga is infinitely better than Trent Williams, and I’m not sure he’s not better than Okung (how’s that for equivocation?). In related news, Bruce Campbell doesn’t really know how play his position, and the Maryland S&C program is shady as hell.

Am I the only one who feels Rob Gronkowski is better than Hernandez and Gresham?

What I find most funny is how tailored each and every mock draft is to the perceived needs of each team. With the sole exception of the quarterback position or some other exceptional circumstance, teams should go BPA. Rookies so rarely make a true impact in their first year that it is difficult to gauge what a team’s needs actually will be when the player is ready to go.

they continue to bring in talent at least as good as ours according to the rating services

Not quite.

“I like Brian Price for the Texans. Safety is maybe a bigger need, but the defensive tackle class is so much deeper that we’ll get much better value drafting one. Maybe even pick up two – a guy like Brian Price in the first and Alualu or Houston in the third or second, respectively.”

I like Price too. I watched him intensely in the EagleBank Bowl. You read that right, I watched the EagleBank Bowl intensely. I really really don’t want Taylor Mays, that’s pretty much my goal for the Texans this year. Of course, I really really didn’t want Cushing last year, oops. To be fair, he ditched the gay hair before the season started.

“I have to think Clausen will go higher. He’s a fucking great quarterback – big, accurate arm, tough, smart, trained by an NFL guy. He’ll be great in the NFL”

I don’t think he is destined for greatness. He’s got some loser in him. Just like VY has winner in him.

Okung is no Top 5 pick but I’m all for helping Jamaal out in KC. I am expecting huge things from him next year. He will be on my fantasy team, mark my words. seriously, mark it down.

Jamaal’s already on my team. Picked him up this year for a $1 in an auction keeper league. I’m rolling into next year with an all Longhorn backfield – Young, Benson, and Jamaal.

I think Kiper is smarter than a lot of the other guys who do this kind of prognostication. He said something the other day that rang true with me on the Tebow issue: you don’t need every team to see you as a first rounder, you just need one. He still projects Tebow in the second round, but he thinks he’ll go higher than McCoy unless Colt has a great pro-day for just that reason – he’s a polarizing guy. People kind of accept McCoys qualities, but Tebow’s are widely debated, and he has some faithful believers… zealots almost.

As for Kiper being lazy, well we haven’t even had the combine yet, so I think it’s totally reasonable to discount smaller school guys who haven’t been vetted in the Senior Bowl, combine, etc. Those guys will come in, but right now you have to stick with the guys who have proven to be big time against the best.

I would probably throw picks 7-10 around a little bit. I don’t see Cleveland picking a CB when their defense is the last of their problems. I do see them picking a QB, OT, or most likely Dez Bryant as they have jack shit at WR. If Claussen is on the board after the Browns pick, I do see Al Davis being unable to avoid the tempation. Otherwise, either of the other teams would be willing to take him, assuming he has a reasonable pro-day. The Bills might take a CB. Jacksonville needs help everywhere, so who knows who they will pick.

As for Cushing and Matthews, am I the only one pissed that two guys who play on absolutely terrible defenses finished so high in the DROY balloting? Yes, their numbers were good but their teams were still terrible. Same with Woodson. If he is so damned good, and Matthews too, why did they give up 50 freaking points to a team that was ass-drubbed by the Saints?

Sugarpants
So who would you pick? Orakpo? Did you watch the Skins-Giants game?

Green Bay had the #1 rushing, #5 passing defense and #2 overall defense in the NFL in the regular season. That equals great defense, not absolutely terrible.

Woodson was a straight up badass this year.

I still think Rak should have won DROY but Cushing and Matthews are already very good NFL players too.

It wasn’t always like this. I had a real life once, a job.

Bills pick Clausen? Is the faith-o-meter empty on Trent Edwards, a guy once praised highly by the late Bill Walsh? Maybe I just feel that the Bills’ most pressing need is at WR/OL. Or maybe their most pressing need is finding a larger fanbase =\

Everytime I hear the Raiders take an OT in the first round, I think of Robert Gallery. I suppooossse Jamarcus Russell could become a decent QB this next season.

Bruce, nice. What kind of deals can I get at S-Mart these days?

colt mc coy to the oakland raiders. shine the light!

Everyone is talking Bradford to the Skins, which I find bizarre. After watching Jason Campbell get treated like a ragdoll this year, the thought of Bradford getting pile driven into the Fedex turf after his trevails of last season is laughable/sad. I would almost feel bad for him.

Almost.

Raiders draft Claussen, then swing Jamarcus down to LT. Two birds, one stone.

dick, we view the Texans very similarly. To recap. I cringed when we drafted Cush. Oops. I do not want Taylor Mays at all. AT ALL. I’d be fine with Price, or best player available between DT and DB.

Woodson had a career year, and probably tied Sharper in the “WTF, that old dude can still ball?” category.

27. Dallas Cowboys Record: 11-5

Bruce Campbell*, OT, Maryland

The Cowboys are better at buying OLinemen (Big Len) than developing them. Over the last 12 years they hit on Flozell Adams and Andre Gurode and missed on everyone else.
Jerrah thinks he’s close, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go after a Golden Taint type and address the OLine in F/A.
If Earl fell to around 20, (he shouldn’t), I’d like to see Dallas trade up and get him. Their safetys aren’t playmakers in any sense of the word, and as Eyes pointed out in an earlier blog, Terrance Newman may be the most overrated CB in the NFL. Earl would provide a significant upgrade to the defensive backfield.

For some reason, I still see Cush with some bust potential, mainly from injuries related to steroid use. But he played through injuries last year to have a great year so I respect him for that.

Woodson has continued to be solid moreso than Sharper, plus he was a better player in his prime than Sharper was. I’ve been a big Woodson fan since his Michigan days. He and Champ are the two best CBs of the past 15 years in my opinion. If you can’t tackle me, then you aren’t eligible for that list.

“For some reason, I still see Cush with some bust potential, mainly from injuries related to steroid use.”

Yep..

Sugar, Woodson was nice, but Darrelle Revis was the DPOTY, and it shouldn’t have even been close. I think Woodson won that on preceding reputation.

Playmaking is how Woodson won the award.

Woodson – 66 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 FF, 9 INT plus 3 returned for INTs. Played for #2 defense.

Revis – 54 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 FF, 6 INTS, 1 returned for INTs. Played for #1 defense.

Revis did a hell of a job on a couple of badass WR but Woodson did almost as good of a job. That is the only reason Revis finished in the top 10 for DPOY, it surely wasn’t anything else he did. It’s not like teams threw at Woodson that much more than Revis. Both are lockdown corners who can tackle. One made A LOT more plays than the other and won the POY because of it.

Sugar, Woodson was nice, but Darrelle Revis was the DPOTY, and it shouldn’t have even been close. I think Woodson won that on preceding reputation.

Exactly. Revis was like our own Aaron Williams this year. They are so damn good that they don’t put up gawdy statistics because they shut down half of the field. Here are some things to chew on regarding the Woodson v Revis debate:

Revis was actually targeted more than Woodson on the year because he is always matched up on the team’s best receiver, yet teams only completed about 35% on him while completing 50% of the time on Woodson. Woodson broke up about 10% of passes thrown at him. Revis, a little more than double that (so much for the ball skills argument which lazy reporters will argue based on INTs only). Revis held Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Chad Johnson Ochocinco (twice), Randy Moss (twice), Terrell Owens (twice), and Steve Smith to less than 40 yards receiving when he was matched up on them.

two picks I see as being curious:

Spiller to the Hawks. I think Spiller could be good and I know that NFL GM-types officially have a boner for Chris Johnson lookalikes. that said, Forsett fits that mold and looked good coming down the stretch. they’ve got a lot of needs…not sure that RB is so high on their list.

similarly…

Golden Tate to the Jets. Really? When you already have Cotchery & Edwards and a competent TE? I guess Sanchise needs all the help he can get?

RE: horn projections. I like Earl to SF. that defense had some moments last year and will continue to improve, you’d think. Sergio to the Falcons would work, I guess.

I’m thinking Colt is a late 2nd to early 4th round pick. prob in the 3rd somewhere. would love for him to land in a place where he doesn’t have to play early. I think Lamarr will be off the board by the 4th round.

also, fwiw, I think McShay is usually better than Kiper on the prognostication. that said, I agree with the poster above that this is just Kiper tossing out names at this point.

Dick,

To your points, Woodson is asked to blitz in the Packer defense whereas Revis does not play that role. However this is another area where statistics don’t tell the whole story regarding his impact in that aspect. The Jets don’t have an elite pass rusher like a Jared Allen or Terrell Suggs but they get pressure on QB’s because of what Revis does in the secondary. They have the luxury of leaving him on an island against a team’s best player, rolling coverage to the other side of the field and bringing others on blitzes. They did this all year and Revis only got beat one time (Ted Ginn). Just because he’s not the man getting to rush the passer don’t mistake that for him having no impact in that area. He may in fact play the biggest role in the Jet’s ability to sack the QB one could argue.

8 of the first 20 for the Big 12.

Love the losses for OU and the fact we have basically owned them during their careers in Norman.

If Golden Tate is available for the Cowboy’s pick that would be a hard pass because he is going to be an outstanding receiver and can return kicks.

In reference to the ‘Boys missing on OL in the draft….they haven’t chosen one in the first round in a long time…but yes they have missed. They probably need first round type talent at the OL immediately and if I felt that good about a guy I would go that way over WR.

I would avoid Taylor Mays as he is a Roy (ou) WIlliams clone as evidenced by this year at usc.

Would love to get the TCU inside LB Washington in the second round if available. Like the G from Iowa Iupati as he is a road grader type of nasty in this round as well.

Lean year for DB’s but hopefully can find some safety help by the third or fourth round.

I could be wrong, but the NFL is batshit if Perrish Cox doesn’t get drafted ahead of Mays. I think he’s going to be one of the biggest movers up the draft board after the combine. Plus, him teabagging A.J. Green in a backpedal will look good on tape. With his return skills, I’m still surprised his name is not being mentioned in the top 15 picks. He shut down everyone on the schedule this season and he’s not a midget.

Also, regardless of how good or bad the Texans were on defense, anyone that watched Cushing play knows that he is an absolute stud and deserves whatever accolades he gets.

Scipio told me that Cushing’s dick will fall off after he finishes his next cylce and be out of the league in 2 years.

Love the Draft. Love that shit. This year I’m throwing a Draft Day Party.

-Flat Brimmed Starter Hats
-Color-on-Color three pieced suits rented specially from GQ Men’s Wear at Red Bird Mall
-Attendees can only talk to each other via cell phone or two way pager.
-Must introduce all guests as, “your cousin.”

“We all know Earl can ball, but it has to make an organization nervous to draft someone who would be the smallest (right?) safety in the NFL”

He can play SOME corner. Versatility is a desired quality in the NFL. If you are extremely fast, smart and just really freaking good at football, NFL teams can use someone like that. But yes, he will get banged up in the NFL and probably not have a 8+ year career. But he could have a Bob Sanders/Polamalu impact on his team.

t1climb1, the reasons you mentioned are the reasons why Revis even finished 2nd in the POY voting. That is high praise. Just because the Jets didn’t require Revis to blitz doesn’t take away the fact that Woodson was asked to do that and was effective. Getting 9 picks plus 3 TAINTS versus 6 picks with 1 TAINT when he had less chances is a huge plus for Woodson as a cover corner too. Making plays is all that POY voters care about, they don’t pay much attention to that other stuff unless they too are freshman year Blake Gideon apologists. Not saying you are one, but your logic is similar.

dick, I will counter your statistical argument with adjusted stats… where’s Huck when you need him? Overall D doesn’t mean shit in the NFL. Look at GB’s scedule:

Chicago x 2
St Louis
Detroit x 2
Cleveland
Tampa Bay (they gave up 38 points to TB)
Seattle

That’s half of their games played against teams that couldn’t score with a bag of coke at the AVN Awards afterparty.

Now let’s go over the decent teams they played:
Cincy – 30 points
Minnesota – 30 & 38 points
the previously mentioned Tampa Bay debacle
San Fran – 24 points – note that they’re only a decent offensive team and I don’t even know if they had a healthy Gore at the time
Pittsburgh – 37 points

Respectable performances:
Dallas – 7 points
Baltimore – 14 points
Arizona, week 17 – 7 points… I can’t recall if this game meant anything to Arizona or not, but they certainly regressed to the mean the next week!

Anyway, excluding Arizona that’s 2 good defensive performances in 8 real games. Not a good D no matter what stats you cite.

I don’t think you would want Huck to bust out adjusted stats on you. First, you would get bored. Second, you would see that the Jets play ball control, run based offense and the packers are the exact opposite. It’s easier for the Jets defense to succeed than the Pack. If you think that the #2 ranked defense in the NFL is “absolutely terrible”, more power to you. Even if the #2 is a little overrated, that’s not “absolutely terrible”.

Yes, the Jets have a better overall defense than the Packers, both statistically and just by watching them play. I’ll give them the team of the year award. I still don’t have any problem with Woodson getting POY over Revis.

Also, the Texans defense was not terrible the last 12 weeks of the season either. huge is right, Cushing was a stud. I tried to fight that all year but even I relented. Again, cutting the hair helped, as did never acting like a doosh.

“Getting 9 picks plus 3 TAINTS versus 6 picks with 1 TAINT”

Damn tight coverage if you can grab a taint…

Dick,

Granted pace plays a role but then again so does playing a bunch of awful teams. I watched a number of GB games and I don’t think I would ever say they were a good D.

Here are some adjusted stats:
http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-play

Verdict: Jets#1, Houston not good, GB turbulll (OK, middle of the pack, but not worthy of a DPOY and DROY #2).

Agreed any taint grabbing is bonus, though.

derryl, Iupati is from Idaho, you’re thinking of Bulaga.

I think Tennessee will Get Taylor Mays..All their missing is Help in the Secondary..
I wouldent be surprise if they went after Golden Tate either..Add to that Offense of Speed..

But i think they’ll end up with either Taylor Mays or Earl Thomas

Vibram five fingers

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