We know Junior Day #1 is this Saturday.
There's flux in regard to who will and won't be on the roster come the 2010 season, but let's assume the numbers don't really matter, as a whole bunch of seniors leave after 2010 and attrition will take place as well.
So your number is 25 max.
What positions are taken and why? My thoughts are below.
QB (1) - Every team wants to have four competent QBs on campus in various states of development at any given time. Texas is no different. I expect them to make David Ash feel like he's the only dream they've ever had at QB. He'll commit by the end of the month. If he doesn't, I think they look out of state instead of at Brewer.
TB (2) - They are changing the offense in part to convince Malcolm Brown that Texas is the school for him. I hope he and his dad are convinced. Brandon Williams is suddenly getting a lot of coverage. He was going to be one of those badass "who dat?s" but the cover is blown. I see no way Sims comes here if Brown is as well. Either would come with Williams, I'm guessing. No way there isn't attrition at TB this offseason. There is a backlog of players named "Bob" at this spot now. No clue who will be leaving, but the numbers tell the story, especially if Texas takes two.
FB/H-Back (1) - If they're looking to start going downhill more from the I and hoping to stay somewhat multiple with the I-formation personnel as well, Bergeron is a great fit. He can do it all, including run the ball, so he's a great candidate to play numerous snaps for the team, even in one-back sets. We haven't recruited a true FB since Will Matthews.
WR (3) - I have heard opinions all over the place on this position. Some people still seem to be under the illusion that we've got all kinds of numbers at WR. Huh? We have non-producers, unknowns, and inconsistencies. I hope Monroe can stay eligible. I hope Williams develops consistency. Desean Hales, Fitzwhitey, Grant - these are unknown entities at this point in the underclass group. The five guys coming in help fill voids here, but at best, we've got nine guys for four positions with zero attrition.
Some folks will move on. Williams could leave early. Grant could go on med-scholly. Shipley will be the 1st or 2nd commit and he's a legitimate witch. The Arlington dude with the Nigerian last name might be another. Is Metoyer a guy that has an offer reserved up to signing day? Maybe. Hope so. He looks OU bound at this point, although that stuff changes.
TE (1) – We did not take a TE in the 2010 class. Some idiots will have the instinct to counter that with the name Darius Terrell. They’re to be ignored, no matter how loud they get banging their heads against the wall. On the roster, Matthews, Graham, and Grant (depending on who you believe) will all apparently be fit to work out in the spring. You can bet that Irby and Harris won’t, and both will be going med-scholarship at some point soon. Texas needs to find a threat at TE. It appears to be McFarland out of El Paso. I would like to see Texas get him. The dude works on his blocking drills after practice, has good hands and a mean spirit. He’s also got the size and we won’t be depending upon him to “grow into the position”. Matthews supposedly really came on during the bowl practices too, so there’s hope at this spot beyond Greg Smith The Blocker.
OT (3) - Texas will be starting Britt Mitchell at one of the tackle spots this fall. That should make your head snap. This has been the most poorly handled position on this team, pretty much for years. McWhorter's more or less a buffoon at this point when it comes to recruiting, retention, and production from the Tackle spot. What happened to this guy? We desperately need at least two guys. Westerman is likely a top 20 national guy and loves us. Haverty from NM is another big time guy that Texas will allegedly pursue. Cochran and Greenlea are other candidates, seemingly. I have heard good things about the Greenlea guy, but it's unclear to me if Texas even has an interest.
OG (1?) - Flowers, out of North Shore, is so good and from such a ridiculous pipeline school that they have to take him. Do they honestly need anyone else at the OG spot? We have roughly six other guards that return after 2010. Walters is suddenly looking completely unhealthy forever, but so did Jordan Shipley at one point. Ashcraft, Porter, and Kelly from the 2009 class are interior guys as well. Hopkins is an interior dude. Maybe they take a look at Drango?
C (?Profit?) - No clue here. To be honest, I have no real clue how to even theorize a strategy with the OL recruiting right now. I've not seen a good one put forth by anyone on any of the boards or the folks that know a ton offline either. I challenge anyone to post a thread about what we’re doing on OL that makes any sense whatsoever and simultaneously gives the majority of us comfort. Much like constant happiness or Apple Slice, finding this solution will remain an elusive desire. Wait, what about Center? Obviously Snow and Espinosa will be back after 2010. How many other Centers do we need on the DC?
DT (2) - Cotton, Dorsey, Howell, Johnson, Bible, Randall, Kriegel, Higgins, Mims. Without signing a single DT in the 2011 class, that's 9 guys that will be returning after the 2010 season, sans attrition. Obviously Higgins isn't on scholarship right now but he's a D-1 talent. It is unclear where Kriegel and Mims fit in on the DL, so consider them swing guys. Even lopping those three off, that's still six guys to form a three deep.
It's an embarrassment of riches. Can they still get who they want at DT with that depth already there? I hope so. Anderson and Jackson are both standout guys. Land them and call it a day. They may both be top 100 guys. Will one of those two commit around a Junior Day? I don’t think so, but others folks seem to believe it.
DE (2) - Jeffcoat, Daniels, Wilson, Okafor, Dominque Jones, Kriegel, Mims, Carter, Dravannti Johnson. Again, that's nine guys coming back after 2010 without taking a single DE this year. Obviously, there will be some attrition, but they'll still be going three deep with this group without taking anyone else. Another embarrassment of riches. Nathan Hughes will be a Junior Day commitment and Cedric Reed may be someone they pursue all year, although, again, some folks seem to think that this dude will commit early. Not sure who else is on the radar after those two, but they're a pretty ridiculous top two. As a sidenote, folks like to think that Rasco is a legit candidate to come to Texas. I follow the Perrilloux Principle and remain from Missouri on getting any top Louisiana player away from LSU.
OLB (2) - Hicks, Acho, Benson, Robinson, and Nkwopara come back after next season. It's not hard to see the need for two more guys in this class. I expect this to be a position where we're pretty surprised by a name that pops up. "Huh?" and then everyone realizes that the advantages of early recruiting have enabled the staff to again find someone that everyone else hasn't gotten to yet because they were all trying to finish their recruiting classes late into the fall. The Randle dude is supposedly a stud. Not sure who all of the names are that will be thrown around. Anthony Wallace? Chet Moss. There’s allegedly a solid group of OLB candidates out there in Texas.
MLB (1) – This is a spot with a lot of talent present currently, but not much beyond the 2010 season. Norton and Earnest will be gone. Allen will be unproven, and Tevin Jackson might well be coming off of a redshirt year. Roberson? Ok. There are a lot of guys out there that could fit the bill. Steve Edmond out of Daingerfield is supposed to be a complete standout. The Kendall Thompson guy? Would either grow out of the position? Not sure who else is on the radar, as all of the LB names have been running together for me so far.
CB (3) – After the 2010 season, it is considered a basic assumption by most folks that Aaron Williams will leave a year early to go pro. We all know he’s loaded with talent and he’s lived up to expectations, if not exceeded them. His Junior year could be truly amazing. That considered, if CBA Armageddon hits the NFL after next season, there may not be a 2011 season, or much of one. Does that impact guys like Williams? I hope so. Regardless, outside of him, Eryon Barnett will be there and not much else outside of the class just signed. Philips, Byndom, Jackson, White. Outside of White, there are no promises that any of the other guys play CB. I hope at least one does, and that that one develops well. Regardless, we’re going to need to sign some CBs in the 2011 class. Unfortunately, there aren’t a ton of in-state guys that fit the bill. Leroy Scott will be a Junior Day commit and that will be huge. He’s supposed to be awesome. Past that, sure there are other names in Texas, but I expect the staff to go looking elsewhere. Is four too big of a number to sign? Perhaps, so I’m typing that they get three. I don’t see them getting two from OOS, so there will be an unknown that commits during Junior Day or one of the lesser heralded guys that we’ve all heard about will take an offer.
S (1) – The situation at Safety won’t be quite as dire as at CB after next season. That considered, there are some standout guys in the 2011 class that will be pursued and we’ll see some upper class attrition and the signings will be merited. Brewster, Scott, Gideon and Wells are all ostensibly returning after 2010. One or more of them will move on or be spun to OLB. Of the class just signed, Philips and Jackson are expected to be Safeties. So how many safeties really need to be signed in the next class? I don’t expect more than two candidates and one is the most likely. Shannon out of Skyline is getting talked up. Maybe he’s the second guy. I think Sheroid Evans will be the first and I think he’ll be a Junior Day commitment.
Athlete (2) – This is always a “position” that confuses and excites me, much like the Crouching Tiger. This past class had DeMarco Cobbs and Adrian Philips slotted into this spot. Cobbs is legit as being a guy that might play anywhere, although TB is where they say he’ll start. Philips is actually a DB. Who fits the bill this year? The only guy for whom I’m certain the Athlete tag will be assigned is Q’andre Diggs. Surely another will pop up. I don’t expect that pop up to be Ledarious Brown. Maybe the MykkeleThompson dude gets dropped into this area, but is Texas really going to pursue him? The Kendall Thompson guy could be a bigger athlete, playing potentially LB, TE, or DE. He might be Texas good.
I count 25 guys if Texas doesn’t recruit a Center. I assume we’ll encounter at least 5 shocks during the Junior Days. That seems par for the course. Those should be fun. Muschamp is running the recruiting process now and he’s shown proclivities for going out of state. My guess is that about five to seven targets arise in that vein over the next few months and that we sign to or three if we’re lucky. It appears as though the dude is committed to raiding the SEC and ignoring the West Coast. That’s a shame, but it’s also another post entirely. Scipio tilts at those windmills more than I do anyway, so I am sure he’ll have the annual one posted down the line when we target six guys in Georgia and Rasco out of Louisiana.
I bet on 10 commitments around the first Junior Day.
What are your numbers expectations? Thoughts? Don’t be shy. I was reading various posts today from around this time last year on this board and at ShaggyBevo's recruiting board and 70% was about the best anyone got. It’ll be the same this year.