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Around SBN: UFC 146 Results: Junior dos Santos TKO's Frank Mir

Spring Theory

Football:

Junior days and the next class are now the talk of the town and there's a lot of analysis and info available out there on Texas' needs and likely targets.

GhostofBigRoy over at Burntorangenation has some helpful spreadsheets that seem to calculate recruits' chances of coming to Texas after you enter some of their profile information and the schools in play. He's programmed wide receivers and tight ends in so far.

Scipio has done something similar with just his mind powers in response to a CTJ challenge.

I'm most interested so far in Joe Bergeron, the fullback and indicator of possible scheme change. Texas has not employed a fullback regularly since Ahmard Hall and him only sparingly. Mack Brown paints a picture of Texas High School football as though it were hard to find blue-collar players that will enjoy geting their hands dirty clearing paths. I'm skeptical of the rarity of such people, this is the coach that couldn't find enough fiery linebackers to fill a 2 deep for a generation, but you can bet Muschamp will find them or make them himself in a bellmont lab.

The perception of Muschamp is that he prefers a power-running based offense like the scheme featured in Alabama and the OL personnel retained in the starting lineup suggest that man-blocking wouldn't be the worst choice for 2010. While I'll support Texas regardless of scheme and believe the pieces are out there I do think the pass-heavy offense is more in tune with HS football in Texas right now and offers more appealing benefits than SEC ball such as the ability to come from behind and to score quickly and reliably when there is little time left.

Speaking of Muschamp, it sounds like Texas Tech is about to adapt to the spread-era defense with the 3-3-5. I'm not thrilled about the proliferation of Muschamp's weapons technology to the rest of the league which is part of what makes a shift to power-running an appealing counter-move for someone in the conference to make. As HenryJames laments (I'm assuming it's a lament) the tide in the Big 12 is towards SEC style football. I'm all in favor of intelligent play but I hope the league doesn't lose the exciting offenses. Its easier, at least right now, for multiple teams to field strong spread offenses than for multiple teams to field strong power offenses. Historically the forward pass has been advanced by necessity on the part of its fathers squads (Bill Walsh, Greg Ellison, etc.).

The NFL is currently dominated by the forward pass and I found a great write-up of the ways that two superbowl squads used the forward pass this season here from Chris Brown at smartfootball.com.

You may remember Chris Brown as the guy who broke down the Texas offense over the years in the last issue of "The Eyes of Texas" as well as the Colt McCoy offense in greater detail here. He also, along with Brophy football, took umbrage with ChrisApplewhite's assertion that pattern-reading was the downfall of the Texas offense this season and even takes another shot at that idea in his writeup on the Colts and Saints, although perhaps he would admit the Porter interception was a good reminder that predictability on crucial plays is generally a bad idea even with a HOF QB. Very few of the major Texas offensive conversions in history that immediately come to my mind involved Texas executing a base play save for the Vince Young 4rth and 5. Short-yardage attempts should always involve some misdirection.

It should be clear from these write-ups that Texas is currently employing a passing offense that incorporates large chunks of what the Colts and the Saints are doing with the 11 personnel and 5-wide formations. I find it obnoxious when people describe a shotgun offense as not being "pro-style" and meaning by that description that the offense is different than what is done in the NFL. It's not. The only substantial difference between the Colts and Texas running game is execution (from better personnel and coaching) and the use of a draw play.

Honestly I'm not really excited about giving up on this style of offense although clearly some changes are in order for the running game.

Basketball:

Big changes are in order for the Men's basketball program after the agonizing Kansas loss. That game has some haunting parallels to various Red River shootouts when the coaches would save material just for OU and be forced to admit that change would be necessary after lackluster performances.

Hank Dudek has a take on the illness infecting the Texas offense here, while Jonestopten adds a historical twist on Rick Barnes' struggle with finding players he needs to win here.

Personally I think choosing a lead guard and playing the younger talent for longer periods without yanking them will see tremendous fruit in this team forming identity, chemistry and creating offense. Bill Simmons once described a great basketball team as being "like a pizza" in that you put in the ingredients and then let them bake together for awhile. Of course it's February now but the way the team is currently playing they could miss the tournament anyways so they may as well take a fresh start in the post-Turkish Delight/Mason backcourt and see what the team can become by March.

Trips, of course, had his take on the game that indicates he is slipping slowly into broken Ron Burgundy territory.

Burgundy eats cat poop

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All this noise about Texas moving to a power running game in the offseason must just be a coincidence in timing with the Malcolm Brown sweepstakes.

by dedfischer on Feb 10, 2010 6:54 AM CST reply actions  

One thing will never change about offensive football. If you go get the biggest, baddest, fastest dude on the field and give him the ball continuously, it will always work to a degree. Texas, at times, appears like they try to be everything on offense and end up not being real good at any of them. Handing the ball off to Brown with a lead blocker will be an easier formula than finding another Colt McCoy.

by dedfischer on Feb 10, 2010 7:00 AM CST reply actions  

Why does it have to be the SEC offense? Why not USC? They run a pro set and still manage to use all of their weapons. However, they are (typically) able to run the ball with some authority.

by jinx on Feb 10, 2010 7:46 AM CST reply actions  

Nice read NR, but I disagree with your thought about the spread (HAH!) of Muschamp’s weapons tech to the rest of the league. It’s a good line, though.

Right now in the Big XII you undoubtedly have two of the top 3 or 5 defensive minds (don’t know where Tuberville ranks honestly, so sorry ded) in college football in Muschamp and Pelini. Guys like these are continually tweaking, changing, implementing and the transition from a traditional 4-3 to a 4-2-5 or 3-3-5 stack is well…natural. It’s not that big of a mental leap to see that this was coming. We have like what…7 or 8 teams in the Big XII that run a spread-based offense?

It was only a matter of time, IMO.

by Mister Mike on Feb 10, 2010 7:48 AM CST reply actions  

Thanks for the morning fix NR. You’re like dime coverage sans cleavage..

by Lloyd Christmas on Feb 10, 2010 8:04 AM CST reply actions  

“Historically the forward pass…” “The NFL is currently dominated by the forward pass…”

by Somewhere RC Smiles on Feb 10, 2010 8:13 AM CST reply actions  

Moving to a pro-style offense would be to Texas’ benefit once Mack leaves. Mack doesn’t believe in motion or running multiple formations – probably because he believes it leads to turnovers, confusion and penalties. Over the long haul, Mack’s teams have about 1/2 the turnovers as Mackovic’s teams, so he may be onto something (though Mackovic’s teams more often played from behind).

I do believe the spread will stagnate unless it’s adopted more often by the NFL. When top QB’s realize they’ll hurt their draft chances by working exclusively out of the shotgun, they’ll be more apt to play for pro-style offenses.

I think the differences in Pac-10 & SEC have more to do with pace than anything. Let’s hope we lean more towards the Pac-10 side to avoid 6-3 victories.

by Eskimohorn on Feb 10, 2010 10:23 AM CST reply actions  

I like the idea of going mainly 11 personnel on offense from EITHER the shotgun or under center. My biggest deal there is that it’s a combination of both in order to avoid the kind of situation with a team like OU where they have you absolutely booked on offense because you are only running one formation. Mix in some Monroe/Goodwin misdirection/jet sweep plays from the four-wide and a few five-wide shotgun sets to keep the defense off balance and some USC-type pre-snap motion sets from under center, shake well, and bingo! An offense that isn’t easier to gameplan against than, uh, the basketball one…

by Blake Borron on Feb 10, 2010 11:29 AM CST reply actions  

Mr. Mike: yeah, I’m not suggesting Muschamp is the author of the tweaks or all the defenses that are catching on but he was amongst the first to start use nickel-bases, pattern-reading, and other SEC technology to the Big 12.
OU has been advanced beyond the rest of the league for awhile but they insist on leaving in 3 linebackers and have lacked big time players at safety since Evil Roy.

Eskimohorn: Texas runs an offense frequently used in the NFL. That was one of my points.
The Colts use 2 basic formations and run a handful of plays. They don’t try to trick anyone they just run whatever play will work best against the given defense. The Saints and Patriots both operate out of 4 and 5 WR offenses routinely.

Jinx: The USC offense is not that terribly different from the Texas offense except without the use of many spread formations or the shotgun. They use the zone-running game. It’s possible Texas will make a few minor tweaks next year like using the I-Formation or moving Gilbert under center but still using the same inside/outside zone playbook. In that event Texas will resemble Indy or USC even more.

by Nickel Rover on Feb 10, 2010 11:34 AM CST reply actions  

Rover: There are some pretty big differences between us an Indy. The reason the offense works for them — and worked for Jim Kelly’s Buffalo teams before that — was the mastery over the scheme displayed by Kelly, Peyton Manning, Ted Marchibroda, and Tom Moore.

One aspect of that is that the offensive coordinator can prepare for any defense they’ll see. We can’t do that because ours isn’t a master of a system, merely an owner of coctail napkins with those plays on them.

Second, both Kelly and Manning called the plays. They knew all the defenses and got their teams into the right play. This, in my opinion, is a good way to be good but a horrible way to be great (as evidenced by the 1-5 Superbowl record of those two teams). One good defense with weeks to prepare can screw you up for one game.

But even worse for us, McCoy didn’t really audible. All of our plays were guesswork, and badly executed guesswork at that. While Manning might have a good play 90% of the time, we were closer to 40-50%. 60-70% on our good days. The most we did was run that WR screen instead of running into an 8 man front.

The Colts don’t trick anyone (the Saints do), and neither did Buffalo. It’s one of the most simple offenses at their competition level, as is ours. However they don’t need to fool you because they simply adjust to whatever you give them. We don’t, and that’s the big key. We’re just simple. They are simple but flexible.

by ChrisApplewhite on Feb 10, 2010 2:23 PM CST reply actions  

ChrisApplewhite: no I definitely agree. Colt’s sophomore year Davis tried to make him more responsible for audibles and calls at the line and then ditched the effort after one of the 4 turnover games early in the season.
I’m not sure if you give Davis enough credit for preparing for defenses as he was able to work out ways to blow up Alabama and OU on a few occasions. He’s not enough of a master to get every call right from the booth with our scheme, which may be damning enough, but he does work out effective ways to exploit weaknesses.
I should have pointed out Manning mastery of the line calls as being the essential ingredient to destroying teams with simple schemes. With Colt it was either a good call that he could execute with his accuracy or him simply buying time and making an off-schedule play. Not nearly as reliable.
My comparison of the Texas and New Orleans offenses is only in the use of particular 5-wide plays.
If you argued, Texas attempts to duplicate what Indianapolis does on offense without the execution of the zone running game, the ability to audible and adjust at the line, and the employment of a running back draw play you would have no argument from me.

by Nickel Rover on Feb 11, 2010 12:32 PM CST reply actions  

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