Bracket Breakdown Gambling Tips

by Scipio Tex on Mar 17, 2010 3:39 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Basketball

So I'm listening to Bill Simmons' podcast and he has on Chad Millman, Vegas Insider.

Basically, Chad's job is to interact with the guys who set the line, professional gamblers, sharps, and wise guys. He had some interesting comments about the tournament:

By the end of the year, markets are fairly efficient as most teams are valued correctly. That's a betting disadvantage. My personal feeling is that there's still value in the mid-majors and 2nd tier teams from elite conferences (Baylor, Georgetown).

Only squares and fools parlay or tease NCAA tournament games. According to Millman, if he asked a respected sharp for a good parlay in March Madness, the guy would never answer his call again. Any meaningful parlay in March Madness takes too much risk. You'll always lose Game 3 out of 3. He could not overstate this point. Bet game to game or bet overall conference wins.

Inter-game gambling is the new thing. You can essentially bet every possession and bet a living line as it fluctuates throughout the game. Kind of a cool way to hedge and play the middle. This represents a phenomenal opportunity if a team you love goes down 15 or 18 early because the other team is, say, hitting 3s, rather than dominating via defensive pressure - you know your guys will rally. Bet accordingly.

This year all of the pro gamblers are pissed off that the NCAA has matched all of their Bet On teams (teams with higher value than is perceived) that they expect to be undervalued against each other early. Specifically, they're irritated that A&M plays Utah State, Richmond plays St. Marys, UTEP plays Butler, Cornell plays Temple and, in the second round Wisconsin is likely to play either Cornell or Temple. Vegas types believe that Wisconsin & Temple particularly are Elite 8 capable and that Cornell is Sweet 16 quality. Putting them in a three team elimination early has the sharps irritated at the perceived easy money they've lost.

Similarly, they're irritated that Texas is matched against Wake and that Missouri is matched against Clemson - as these are all Bet Against (underperform relative to perceived value) teams. They'd have preferred Richmond vs. Texas/Missouri, UTEP vs. Wake/Clemson match ups so that they can make some easy dough betting against the public.

They're similarly conflicted by Duke's regional draw. Vegas sharps hate Duke and Coach K and have consistently bet against him in the tournament for the last 8 years or so. Duke's style of play has too high of a beta and they can't be counted on if the 3s aren't dropping. However, they are a public team - meaning the average uninformed gambler loves Duke, so it's important to watch their lines for inefficiencies if they get past their first couple of opponents. The public can sweep in and queer their lines.

Everybody loves Baylor & Marquette. Baylor is good against the spread and has been all year. Marquette is incredibly consistent and cut their teeth in a brutal Big East. Wise guys love teams like Temple, Wiscy, Marquette because they're so predictable and they can drag you into a half-court game. Under pressure, a team unaccustomed to that under the bright lights and on a neutral floor will wilt.

Wise guys fear Louisville because they can lose by 20 in round 1 or go to the Elite Eight. They can screw your bracket.

We have our own resident gambler in Kevin Berger and his bracket breakdowns are well worth your time:

East

No disagreements here. And Kevin independently identified Wiscy and Temple as the X-factors, which impresses me since I know he didn't hear the podcast. The problem is that you have to pick one of them. Is anyone else concerned that Bob Huggins has a tournament history of pissing away high seeds?

West

Wow. Ballsy. If the Syracuse big man stays hurt, 12 seed UTEP almost makes the Final 4 after upsetting Syracuse. However, if Syracuse is healthy, I guess they play K-State for the right to advance? The problem is that this has no predictive value since none of us know the injury status.

The 3 and 4 seeds in this bracket are particularly weak. So if you're a 1 or 2, you simply need to play up to your potential for at least the Elite 8. Of course some of the lower seeds (BYU, UTEP) are notably strong so upset potential here is rife.

Midwest

What the Committee did to Kansas is obscene. Ultimately, I think the Jayhawks fight through this bracket anyway. I don't have Ohio State upsetting Kansas as Kevin does because Georgetown and Greg Monroe take them down a round previous. Still, this region will feature incredible basketball and a bunch of games that will be very near things.

South

Kevin likes Baylor. So do I. I'm having trouble pulling the trigger. Duke and Nova scream out to be beaten.

If you want to pull the trigger on some winning bets: BANG!.

I also found the write-ups at Rush The Court very informative. You'll find solid Thursday/Friday breakdowns as well.

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Comments

Very interesting piece. These games can’t start soon enough. Thanks, Scip.

by coloradoag on Mar 17, 2010 4:06 PM CDT reply actions

Last year in Vegas, Friday morning, stumble to the line at 8:30 to make my bets, put $20 on a four-team parlay on the four 9:00 am games, nailed it! Three of the four games’ spread was determined in the final 0:30. Walked away with $220.

Yeah, so what if that is the only more-than-two-team parlay I’ve hit, ever!

First time in five years I haven’t been in Vegas to watch the first round…my first kid is due within the next two weeks. It’ll probably be worth it.

by uthookem on Mar 17, 2010 4:09 PM CDT reply actions

“It’ll probably be worth it.”

$2,000 – Week in Vegas versus $500,000 raising a kid? I’m taking Vegas and the points.

by Eskimohorn on Mar 17, 2010 4:16 PM CDT reply actions

“You can essentially bet every possession and bet a living line as it fluctuates throughout the game. Kind of a cool way to hedge and play the middle.”

Also kind of a cool way to suggest that maybe you have a bit of a problem.

And when I say “you”, I mean the general “you”.

by CrazyJoeDavola on Mar 17, 2010 4:19 PM CDT reply actions

uthookem-

I’d say you have your priorities straight.

colorado -

Anytime. How far do you think the Aggies go? A lot of people think Utah State is the most dangerous pure shooting team in the tournament.

by Scipio Tex on Mar 17, 2010 4:20 PM CDT reply actions

CJD -

Possibly. However, I’m telling you – the beauty of these intergame lines is that when you see that all-too-familiar big early game lead that you know will evaporate down the stretch as soon as the team starts regressing to their 3 point shooting mean, there’s some money to be made.

by Scipio Tex on Mar 17, 2010 4:22 PM CDT reply actions

Scip, like a peaceful Indian in the 1800’s, I never trust a Mormon that can shoot. Utah State has me worried.

If we escape the first weekend, things get very interesting with a potential Sweet 16 match-up with Duke. Ugly up the game and guard like hell on the perimeter in front of a raucous Reliant Stadium and there might be an upset of large proportions.

by coloradoag on Mar 17, 2010 4:52 PM CDT reply actions

Great article Scipio. Also, thanks for the dime.

Looking at the Tournament futures market, Vegas is telling us what they think about Onuaku’s health. The Orangemen have the easiest region and road to the fianl four, yet they’re +700 to win it all, while UK and Kansas, teams with much tougher roads, are +250 and +350 respectively to cut down the nets.

http://marchtomarch.fantake.com/2010/03/15/ncaa-champion-put-your-money-where-your-bracket-is/

Unless you think UK and KU have been significantly better than the Cuse this year, Anuaku’s injury is the only explanation for the odds descrepancy.

by Kevin Berger on Mar 17, 2010 5:07 PM CDT reply actions

colorado ag, Utah State is as athletic as Nebraska. You’ll be fine as long as they don’t go 16 for 31 from three.

Siena, on the other hand, is going to beat you like you stole something. Maybe not, but the Saints should win.

by Kevin Berger on Mar 17, 2010 5:11 PM CDT reply actions

I just took Baylor going to the Elite 8. It’s a crazy mixed up world we live in.

Is it just me, or does it pain anyone else to not be able to determine who is going to beat Duke early? It’s bound to happen, but who will it be?

by ghostofagroundgame on Mar 17, 2010 5:28 PM CDT reply actions

Louisville has a great chance if Jerry Smith is healthy.

by Kevin Berger on Mar 17, 2010 5:54 PM CDT reply actions

Who does everyone have in their brackets this year to make  it to the final four?? WIth so many changes through-out the  Top 10, Top 25 and even the #1 seed in the nation anything  is possible.. I can’t wait for the madness to begin!!! So  pumped!!  
My Final Four:  

Kansas 
Pittsburgh  
Kentucky  
Villanova 
 ____________  
KANSAS winning it all…   
For a full bracket with predictions click
http://www.lionsdenu.com/ncaa-march-madness-2010-thecoachs-bracket/

So who do you have? Who is your final four?

by Tim Alvine on Mar 17, 2010 7:00 PM CDT reply actions

I’ve got :
WVU
Kansas
Syracuse
Baylor

Kansas beating WVU for it all

by Travis on Mar 17, 2010 7:55 PM CDT reply actions

I put 100 on baylor winning the south and got it at 5 to 1 so … I’m rooting for the bears like crazy

by Travis on Mar 17, 2010 8:01 PM CDT reply actions

Also on the thanks for the write up bandwagon. I fly out to Vegas early in the morning and all opinions are appreciated, especially those worth money to me.

by Diego on Mar 17, 2010 9:38 PM CDT reply actions

“which impresses me since I know he didn’t hear the podcast.”

You shouldn’t be, after reading both guys over the past year, KB knows more about basketball and gambling than Millman does and it’s not even close.

A little warning about Chad Millman. I was pretty excited when I heard that ESPN hired a “gambling expert”. He has been especially NOT helpful this year. He can’t really tell you anything that a joe blow degenerate gambler can’t tell you after some experience. He is supposed to have this insider knowledge and he gets quotes from these “professional gamblers” that can be pretty off base at times. If you spend time reading or researching “professional gamblers” stuff, you know that one professional likes one thing while the next “professional” will like the opposite. It’s pointless to try and use the word of one or two sharps and say “this is what the sharps think”. The only way to tell is to look at the line movement and also what the public consensus is (which is published in many places).

For example, he talks about wiseguys and sharps LOVING Scott Drew and Baylor. Well 75% of the public is on Baylor and the line has gone from 12 to 10.5. Who is moving the line by betting on Sam Houston? Sharps. Why? I have no fucking clue. But Chad Millman tells you that the sharps love Baylor but he’s wrong.

That’s a small example I know and he did mention that sharps stay away come tourney time (not totally true), but he did that constantly during the football season to the point where I stopped reading him.

Also, it is never ever a smart idea statistically to do teasers or parlays. It is just more fun and can get you in on more action for less risk. Everyone knows that they are not smart plays.

Thanks for the article Scip. That was a 4 part series podcast from Simmons on March Madness. Millman’s was part 2 of the 4. Check out Simmons’ Part 3 podcast with Cousin Sal for more entertainment and even better in depth knowledge on March Madness betting.

by dick on Mar 17, 2010 10:39 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks, dick. Interesting perspective.

by Scipio Tex on Mar 17, 2010 11:06 PM CDT reply actions

Had some harsh words about Barnes in that podcast, that’s for sure. . . .

by mashtun on Mar 18, 2010 1:31 AM CDT reply actions

Coloag, some settlers should have also been nervous about Mormons who could shoot. Fantastic stuff scip and trips. Thanks again for all that you share.

Sorry for the off topic, but I heard from someone who should know that Hamilton is expected back next year, which is contrary to what I’d heard from someone else who should also know, but from a different perspective. It will be interesting.

by Another Dipshit Poster on Mar 18, 2010 8:43 AM CDT reply actions

This was highly entertaining, but I think it would be even more entertaining if someone could explain the following terms to me:
wiseguy
sharps
parlay
teasers

by 06_UT on Mar 18, 2010 10:11 AM CDT reply actions

wiseguys and sharps are synonymous. They move the lines because they know more than the books for the most part. Call them insiders.

Parlays are bets on multiple events that give you odds. For instance a three team parlay may pay you 6 times your normal bet….$100 bet would net you $600, but you have to win all three games against the number or you lose.

Teasers are similar to parlays, but they allow you to add or subtract points to the line. A three team 6 point teaser gives you 6 points to add or subtract to each line of the three games you choose. So if Texas is -10, Kansas is -10, and Baylor is +10…your teaser would be Texas -4, Kansas -4 and Baylor +16. You’d have to win all three outcomes to win your teaser. The downside is that your payout is significantly less than the parlay payout.

dick’s right, parlays are sucker bets, but some teasers actually have value if they cross enough key numbers. Key numbers in football are 7’s, 4’s, 3’, etc, because so many games are decided by these amounts.

Hope that helps.

by Kevin Berger on Mar 18, 2010 11:01 AM CDT reply actions