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Texas Turns the Page

Well, WTF was that? A train wreck is what. That’s how the entire Texas basketball season can be described.

Star-divide

A screaming, screeching, ugly train wreck.  After ascending to #1 in the nation for the first time in school history, the wheels just fell off during conference play.  You can read all about the final and quite fitting end to our season in Trips’ always insightful post-mortem.  I’m just happy that Trips is still alive after the heartbreak of last night and the pantsing that UTEP took yesterday.

“Where do we go from here?” Alicia Keys once opined.  What do we do after the party has mercifully ended?  (Rebuild) What will this train wreck look like next year?  (Small) Could it get any worse? (It could).  So much of next year is dependent on who’s coming back.  We know that Plexy Dexy will take his game to some non-descript European league or maybe the D-league.  Mase will most likely move in with Rick Barnes so that Rick doesn’t suffer from detachment issues and Damion will be in The League somewhere making us proud.

http://pianologist.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/alicia_keys-4.jpg

Where do we go from here?  How about back to your place, Alicia?

Basically, we need to know what happens with 3 key contributors—the three freshman.  The rest of the team are role players and honestly, if Matt Hill fell down in the woods, would anyone hear him?  So let's go ahead and do what internet blogs do, give uninformed predictions of each’s possible return:

1.  Avery Bradley.

Avery was the #1 recruit in the land coming into the land and that moniker and talent still goes towards building his draft status.  He’s quick, plays both ends of the court, is tough minded and has displayed the beginnings of leadership qualities.  He has a nice mid range game and has very nice form on his jump shot.  He should be able to extend his range with a little more strength.

On the bad end, he doesn’t have a definitive position.  His ball handling is too deficient for a PG, not to mention he doesn’t have a PG feel for the game, yet his size is small for a 2 guard.  He has problems finishing at the rim because a lack of upper body strength and too easily gets the ball ripped from him in the lane.  In short, he's not really ready for the NBA right now.  He either needs to get a handle and be an offensive PG, like a Monta Ellis or George Hill type or gain some strength to allow him to finish more effectively at the rim while extending his jump shot and be a solid, if undersized, off guard.

Of course, none of that really matters; it’s all about the flow.  If AB can get into the top 15 to 18 picks, as some are slotting him now, then he needs to go and get paid.  Especially with a NBA work stoppage on the possible horizon.  If he can’t, then he needs to seriously consider coming back and working on his game.   I think you see a ton of under classmen declare.  Also, some have speculated that Avery may want to just get out of Austin and away from Colonel Klink’s offensive unimagination (yes, I know that's not a word).  I haven’t seen or read anything that would suggest that Bradley is miserable, but that’s what the comments section is for.

Percents of a return:  33.333333333333% (repeating)

http://symonsez.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/klemperer.jpg

Barnes teaching offense?

2.  J’Covan Brown.

This is probably the easiest of the three.  He needs to come back.  Case closed.  JCB is a four year player.  JCB has a very fun and crafty offensive repertoire that’s fun to watch if you’ve ever played where you’re not the most athletic person on the floor.  A cadre of floaters, teardrops and scoop shots allow JCB to get his shot up at times over bigger and more athletic defenders.  He also has nice court vision and a good feel for when and how a play will develop.

Still, he’s painfully slow for a guard.  His jump shot brings images of Monique’s unshaven legs.  He can't play defense, doesn't always exert maximum effort, and doesn't have the decision making ability to take advantage of his court vision yet.  He's a work in progress and he needs to keep pounding marble.

JCB came in with a reputation for immaturity and emotional explosiveness, so rumors abound if he’s happy with the tough and sometimes confusing love that Barnes imparts on him.  Could this cause JCB to declare for the draft?  Transfer?  Anything can happen when you’re trying to break down the psyche of a 20 year old, but I doubt it.  Like Richard Gere, he has nowhere else to go.  It’s been well documented about how long and hard the road was to get JCB to Texas and qualified and both Barnes and JCB expended a ton of effort and time to make that happen.  I don’t think they turn the page so easily.

Percents of return:  90%

http://www.cs.uni.edu/~wallingf/blog-images/misc/an-officer-and-a-gentleman01.jpg

Don't you do it, Rick.  J'Covan's got nowhere else to go!

3.  Jordan Hamilton

Has there ever been a more enigmatic or frustrating player to come to Texas than Jordan Hamilton.  Probably the player with the most pure talent on this Texas team, Jordan is the proverbial 1 million talent with a 10 cent head.  I do think that Jordan has really improved this year, specifically in the last half of the year.  Jordan became more patient and less apt to throw up a three every time he touched the ball.  Jordan has exceptional range on his jump shot , displays a keen passing eye, and can rebound and penetrate at times.  He also has a solid handle for his size which makes him valuable in breaking a press or even initiating offense in a pinch.

On the flip side, Jordan has displayed no midrange game.  Like most kids in America today, it’s get as close to the rim as you possibly can or shoot the three.  The few times he tried to post up, he settled for unsuccessful fadeaways.  He’s a terrible defender, although his effort improved on that end of the court throughout the season, but that’s like saying Gary Coleman got a little taller.  He’s still has almost no court awareness and, like JCB, lacks foot speed to keep other wings in front of him and out of the lane.  He’ll most likely never be even a good defender, but if he could upgrade to simply below average then he’d be fine.  His offense is his calling card.

Coming into the season, rumors were that Jordan was the most vocal about wanting to jump to the NBA and his father is known to hold Jordan in a tad higher regard than reality.  Got to love supportive parents, I guess.  From what I’ve seen, Jordan’s draft prospects are all over the place but mostly I’ve seen his name in the 2nd round.  A couple of mocks have him sneaking into the bottom of the first.  Could his NBA itch be too much not to scratch?  He’s already stated he’s coming back, but it’s early.  I think Jordan will explore his options and then begrudgingly come back to the be the focal point of the offense next year.

Percents of return:  70%

http://oraclespeak.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/gary-coleman.jpg

What you talking about, Jordan?  Not defense.

If percents hold, then our starting lineup would look something like this:  Tristan Thompson, Gary, Jordan, Varez, and JCB with Shawn Williams, Alexei, Hill, Jai, and Chappy off the bench.  I didn’t list Dogus, because I don’t know if he’ll 1. Be healthy enough to come back and 2. Decide to go back overseas.  I think Dogus may understand that his lack of a 15 foot jump shot would handicap his ability to make a NBA roster.  He’s in flux.  Wild card would be a Cory Joseph signing and if he would ever make it to campus.  Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  That type of squad, while not having the talent that this year’s edition had, may be a better fit playing together in a more up tempo type of game, but that is an article for another day.  Thoughts?

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If we want Avery & Jordan to come back. And if we want any chance of a decent team next year. I think Barnes needs to declare some changes are in store for next year, asap.

These changes could be as simple and painless as:
1) declaring a mea culpa with Barnes saying he may have been too tough with this bunch
2) announcing a more aggressive offense for next year

Or, they could be more dramatic like hiring an asst coach that’s more offensive minded.

by texoz on Mar 20, 2010 10:47 AM CDT reply actions  

Let me qualify that, “if we want Avery & Jordan to come back.”

What I mean is that if we want to up the chances that they will come back. I think one or both may come back anyway, but the current situation is more precarious for having both return.

by texoz on Mar 20, 2010 10:49 AM CDT reply actions  

Hamilton needs 1-2 years to seriously work on the deficiencies in his game. He goes now, and in a couple of years he’s “whatever happened to …?”. The risk is while he might get drafted now on potential, if he can’t/won’t develop as a player he won’t even have that to offer in the next draft or two.

The non-existent basketball IQ of some of these kids is really disappointing. This bunch makes Buckman look like James Naismith.

My other issue with Barnes – in addition to the well-documented disgrace he just turned in – is player identification and development. Chapman, Hill, Wangmene – these were supposed to be the answers to a rotation on the front line. Misses all. Other schools – let’s take Baylor as an example – produced players I’d never heard of prior to this season who could play and produce. The careers of Pittman and Mason – for all of the promise Mason showed early on – have to be marked as failures versus expectations. Recruit all of the Mickey D’s you can, but if you’re missing badly on the rest of the lineup it’s going to largely be a struggle.

by blackscholes on Mar 20, 2010 11:40 AM CDT reply actions  

AAS wrote a dumbed down version of this subject today. Barnes says he’s bringing in another guard. Good, because I feel very confident in our depth in the front court. Alexei, white stiff #1, and white stiff #2 make me ooze with confidence especially behind a true freshman and undersized 4…….

Barnes, asked Thursday if Brown is the most likely candidate for the position, said not necessarily.

“I’m not going to say that anybody’s going to fill anything, because we are definitely not through recruiting,” Barnes said. “We are going to sign another guard. We’ll do what we do every year: put it up for competition.”

by Patrick Bateman on Mar 20, 2010 12:03 PM CDT reply actions  

“AAS wrote a dumbed down version of this subject today.”

When is this not true.

by nordberg on Mar 20, 2010 12:07 PM CDT reply actions  

Good write up… personally, I don’t think any of the three headed monster should leave; none of them were that impressive this year, IMO. I would be seriously surprised if Bradley gets told that he would go as high as 15-18. If he had a good season, then yeah but I think everyone sees that he needs more development, esp as a guard tweener. When Damion was recruited, most people thought he was one or two and done. He obviously wasn’t ready either and I think there is a fair chance that Bradley comes back; if he doesn’t, it will probably have more to do with getting out of the system than draft pick, IMO.

You think Thompson will start? I don’t. I think he will get a lot of minutes; maybe more than the person that starts (Chapman?). I think Barnes has a little Mack Brown syndrome of being loyal to seniority. You mention Cory Joseph… he would be a great pickup but even more than that Rick needs to get an athletic big man in the rotation. Alexis was suppose to be that type of player but hasn’t developed. Matter of fact, as good of a recruiter rep that Rick has, he hasn’t done much with the big uglies since maybe Larmarcus.

I would like to see a breakdown like this with assistant coaches. I think that is one of Rick’s biggest problems: he’s trying to do everything and doesn’t have enough talented input. Keep Todd, the two best recruiters and go get some energetic future head coaches to inject some new blood creativity, Xs & Os, skill development. Right now, it looks like only one assistant coach has any meaningful college coaching experience. Promoting guys from within and esp ones he coached doesn’t add to a variety of perspective, IMO.

by SoldierHorn on Mar 20, 2010 12:18 PM CDT reply actions  

Barnes has lost two longtime assistants and gained Paulino and Ogden—two guys who really only know what he’s taught them. Seems like he should look to the outside for some methodology.

Two, got to recruit fewer projects. Fewer spindly white guys that need to gain 30 pounds of muscle. Fewer all-purpose guards who you hope can learn how to play the point. Fewer 6’6" power forwards. Get some guys who are really built to play their position. I think Barnes has liked this idea of taking a hunk of clay and molding into his vision—but it seems like by the time players are getting to college, they pretty much know where they need to play. It’s not football.

by mashtun on Mar 20, 2010 12:44 PM CDT reply actions  

Lets not get too happy about tristan thompson. I’ve seen his film and the allstar game. He’s all size and no polish, see Pittman, Dexter; Hill, Matt; Chapman Clint. He doesn’t really have a shot away if hes away from the basket. He looks kinda slow too. Why does Barnes recruit these “bigs” that are nothing but…big. Size doesn’t make you a great baller. (insert size joke now)

by owenh on Mar 20, 2010 12:56 PM CDT reply actions  

I am thinking more in the vein of Ken McDonald and Frank Haith who are now head coaches. I think ideas and development has gone stagnant since then.

by SoldierHorn on Mar 20, 2010 12:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Texoz,

As much as we need to find an identity on offense, we also need to address our defensive schemes. If JCB and JH are two big contributors and we play a 6’6" guy at 4 and a foul prone freshman in the middle then we need to re-examine our principles on defense. We won’t have the foot speed on the perimeter (Ward and Balbay will be coming off major injury) and the awareness in the middle to erase mistakes. More zone or sagging m2m help would be much better. I’d welcome a half court trap game if we want to push tempo.

Scholes,

I agree. The “misses” of these three particularly Hill, who has eaten up a scholarship for going on five years is beyond frustrating. We got killed on the boards vs. Wake and people wonder why? Our average height was under 6’4" (DJ, BJ, AB, JM, JCB) for a lot of the game.

Soldier,

Thanks. I also think that all three need to come back, but if AB can can get the top 15 type of money, he may need to go. The other two really shouldn’t be entertaining the idea, but egos and emotion are funny things. I think we have no choice to start Tristan unless Chappy makes a huge step forward. I could see one of the backups starting the first few games but by conference play, we will HAVE to start Thompson if we want to optimize our potential.

Owenh,

Thompson definitely is a WIP offensively, but he can rebound, run the court, and shot block. He’s a better version of Connor his senior year and that’s without any improvement on offense. He should be able to finish too. He’s a top ten recruit for a reason, but your correct, he’s awfully raw skill wise…

by Patrick Bateman on Mar 20, 2010 1:22 PM CDT reply actions  

…but by conference play, we will HAVE to start Thompson if we want to optimize our potential.

Ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha!

Pains me to hear that, as we all pined for Hamilton to start all season long (except ipowers, that is). What makes you think it will be different with a big guy?

by uthookem on Mar 20, 2010 2:41 PM CDT reply actions  

Texas needs to recruit another head coach. No matter who Texas recruits they will have the same problems next year if Barnes remains the coach. Fire, Barnes and hire an up and coming head coach like the head coach at Butler someone that can actually coach. But, we all know that won’t happen. Texas lacked toughness on the defensive end thats a reflection of the head coach. Teams like A&M; didn’t have half the talent Texas had but their coach instilled toughness in them and they competed every possession on the defensive end. Rick is busy recruiting guards he figures an great point guard can hide his horrible offensive coaching abilities like T.j, Ford and Augustin did. Texas has absolutely no inside presence for next year I doubt they will even make the tourney. Barnes needs to be looking over all the JUCO ranks trying to sign a legitmate center.

by I HAVE JOCK ITCH on Mar 20, 2010 2:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Hmm, great article, more or less of the same subject I wrote on for today.
I think we are in exact agreement that Bradley should probably go if his draft grade holds steady in the 15-25 range because he’ll probably not get a better contract if he waits but simply demonstrate his ceiling as a player.

by Nickel Rover on Mar 20, 2010 3:08 PM CDT reply actions  

we will be better than an 8 seed if all 3 of those come back. i’ll be adjusting my expectations accordingly which will make season much better

by dick on Mar 20, 2010 3:21 PM CDT reply actions  

I watched UT a dozen times or more this year on TV. I have never seen a more perplexing team. Bradley has a future in the NBA but I assure you it isn’t next year. I am really not sure about Hamilton. He has a long way to go. Brown? See Warren at OU. Not just a head case but way over rated. Smooth shot and everything else is horrible. No ability to lead. He makes poor decisions and can’t do much else better than other point guards in the big 12. Gary Johnson had some nice moments this year but is he a showcase guy?

With the emergence of A&M and Baylor on the national scene in bb, pressure is seriously on Barnes. He did not act nor appear to be holding it together this year. There is pressure on him and can he turn it around fast enough? Not unless he cleans out starting with Brown.

by BUMAD on Mar 20, 2010 3:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Don’t see Bradley as a kind of guy that goes through that kind of disappointment, sees how unprepared for the NBA he is, and goes to “get his” in the draft. Maybe Hamilton, but not AB.

by Blake Borron on Mar 20, 2010 3:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Nickel,

Yea, I think AB may move if he can get assurances he won’t slide past the teens. Going 25 or so is a much different story. I think he should probably come back if he’s in the mid-20’s but not having a clear vision of what the rookie salary scale might look like after next season makes it difficult to be definitive.

The other thing to consider is the scary stats that CNNSI put out that 60% of pro basketball players are broke 5 years out of the league. The prevailing thought has been you make the real money on your 2nd contract but that’s only for superstars or solid starters in the league like Durant or LaMarcus. What if you go in the league and after three or four years, don’t get past 3 or 4th off the bench? No education, little financial discipline and lacking financial security. Hmmmm, maybe staying that extra year in college and growing up and improving a draft position doesn’t sound so bad…….Jordan needs solid advice like this too. I really wish the draft system in the NBA was like MLB. 1 year is a joke….

by Patrick Bateman on Mar 20, 2010 4:08 PM CDT reply actions  

Hearing nothing that leads me to believe Cory Joseph is on his way to save Barnes’ ‘offense’. Hope this staff is making some contingency plans.

by blackscholes on Mar 20, 2010 4:12 PM CDT reply actions  

How about teaching these guys about basketball IQ. This team was the damn dumbest team in the country. They would repeat then same mistakes in almost every game after starting 17-0. Incredibley dumb fouls, the inability to make point blank shots or layups, 3 pointers at the wrong time and of course, missing free throws. Dumb, dumb, dumb!

by NickRivers on Mar 20, 2010 4:26 PM CDT reply actions  

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Rick is making the same mistake Mack Brown was making before he and VY had their little talk. He is trying to force the guys into his system regardless of whether they fit it or not. He needs to take the talents he has and build a system around those talents. As much as it may hurt his ego to admit that his isn’t working, that is something he has to do if he’s going to take the team to the next level. A square peg doesn’t fit in a round hole.

by gottago3 on Mar 21, 2010 5:57 AM CDT reply actions  

gotta,

I think your overall point is a good one. Barnes is a “system” guy especially defensively, which plays into how he overall plays the game. He wants to play a high pressure, overplay man2man scheme predicated on effort, good technique and overall quickness. Similar to Duke, but even Coach K (in fairness it took him a little while too) recognized what he did and didn’t have and it’s been well documented about how he’s loosened up his man2man principles to sag a little more because he doesn’t have great quickness on the perimeter, especially with Scheyer running the team. Not exactly going 2-3 zone but a minor tweak that’s helped Duke immensely.

Offensively, it’s frustrating, but Rick’s actually had been trying to give his players more rope by playing a NBA system that requires quick and sound decision making by your guards. Hence, it’s very guard an point guard oriented. High p’n’roll offenses are always left to the guards to create or knock down shots. Unfortunately, in his attempt to be less hands off, he allowed his youngsters to make unsound and silly decisions b/c we don’t have a true PG. He made things worse by losing his patience as his youngsters continued to make the same mistakes over and over and the whole thing spiraled. At least that’s my contention.

Ironic, in his attempt to not be a taskmaster, he gave his guys too much freedom and not enough guidance early and then for whatever reason wasn’t able to have them learn from their mistakes. Regardless, he needs to do a better job recruiting players that can play his system or tweak his system to the identity of his players. Rick needs to understand that it’s not a sign of weakness to tweak systems towards personnel….

by Patrick Bateman on Mar 21, 2010 12:20 PM CDT reply actions  

This season absolutely stupefied me. Typically, Barnes gets more out of his kids than one would expect. This year was the absolute opposite – he had an embarrassment of riches, yet turned in the worst performance I’ve seen in his time at Texas.

I’m not sure how to fix the situation. But I know what his players should be doing for at least an hour EVERY day during the off-season.

Get your asses to the gym and shoot free throws.

by EddieTheAlbinoSquirrel on Mar 21, 2010 11:49 PM CDT reply actions  

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2010/mockdraft

Chad Ford’s mock draft lottery has Avery Bradley going to the Rockets at #14. As long as he’s on one of my teams next year, I’d be happy with that.

by dick on Mar 22, 2010 12:05 PM CDT reply actions  

and now he has dropped Bradley about 5 spots out of the lottery to later in the first round. I think I would leave if I were Avery.

by dick on Mar 23, 2010 1:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks, dick. Sounds like AB is gone and everyone else is coming back. Tweet from NBAdraft.net

Texas staff expects Jordan Hamilton and the rest of the underclassmen to return besides Bradley.

by Patrick Bateman on Mar 23, 2010 2:20 PM CDT reply actions  

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by dll repair on Oct 16, 2011 9:26 AM CDT reply actions  

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