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Emulating the Broncos

Scipio Tex/Football:

In some of my recent work-related absences (3 12-hour shifts in a row) Scipio has been cranking out some great reads.

Most recently he tackled the strange circumstances of Boise St. and Butler. One topic that always comes out of discussions on the "mid-majors" who have success regards how they would perform in a conference like the Big 12. One opinion that I've typically accepted and is popularized by afternoon radio guys like Geoff Ketchum is that these teams would be beaten down by a Big 12 south schedule where their lack of depth would see them break down while they can have success in a single shot with lots of preparation time.

Also working for them and against schools like Oklahoma St. is having to face both OU and Texas every season. Boise St. doesn't have such giants in their conference to get used to losing to while they are building the program. I can't help but think that even in seasons when the pokes have strong enough teams they struggle overcoming the mental side of beating Texas because it simply doesn't happen often.

The 2nd is a weak excuse though and the real challenge is from the first rebuttal to Boise St.'s national ranking. Could they sustain excellence against a schedule that challenges week after week? It's easy to buy in that they couldn't but I don't actually possess enough knowledge of their roster and the players they typically recruit to know the answer.

What we do know is that they have enough depth to sustain excellence year after year. They haven't relied on a few seasons with 1 or 2 standout players but have consistently put out strong teams. That suggests roster strength and player development that could weather the Big 12 better than has been advertised by figures like Ketchum. Does anyone think that they would have struggled to dominate the Big 12 North this decade?

We have also seen that they are strong playing against OOC teams in bowl games and on the schedule this decade. They are averaging a 12-1 season since 2002 with only season dipping below 10 wins (2005) that includes 2 undefeated seasons. They've beaten TCU twice in that stretch, Oregon twice, OU, and a 2-2 record vs. Oregon St.

In their 3 bowl losses in that stretch they lost by a combined total of 14 points. What could put to rest the depth argument by forcing them to win consecutive big game and give Boise St. a chance to win a championship? A playoff? Explain to me how that works...

In a few other interesting reads Scipio tackled press conferences by Greg Davis and Will Muschamp. There seems to be a lot of pessimism regarding the Longhorns offense next year by the Davis haters.

Chris Applewhite's forecast of Garret Gilbert throwing into double teams after honest fronts stuff the new power running game is a gloomy possibility but I think, given the chance, this line can really punish in the running game. In fact, when given the chance, this line has been able to move Sooners in the running game the last 3 years. Hix, Huey,and Snow are all proven maulers and Allen and Mitchell might be great in that role as well. That Boise St. squad we just mentioned has been creating a power-running game and "six second play-action" opportunities year after year with a lot less size and talent then Texas will have in the trenches next year.

If there's one thing you need to take from Scipio's write-ups it's that next year's 2-back offense absolutely has to be referred to as the "Jack'N'Jill offense". Done and done.

Whiskey had his coach friend on again to address the outside and inside backers for a 3-4 defense in his schematic preview of Chip Kelly's defense. This should reinforce the needs and requirements of an inside backer for Texas next season and help explain Muschamp's frustration in trying to prepare his defenses for the very few power running teams Texas faces. Norton was a solid inside player but was often caught turning his shoulders against power teams. There are a lot of options inside next year with Acho Uno Ocho, Earnest, Norton, Allen and whoever steps up from the newcomers or Roberson.

In the ranks of departed stars of yesteryear, Earl Thomas has only seen his stock improve. His recognition, playing speed, and solid tackling make him a sure thing in the NFL. I could see him as a Free Safety, nickel back, Cover-2 corner, or even a strong safety like Sanders or Polamalu with potentially similar injury issues.

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So how many has boysee sent to the NFL over the past 10 years?

by Bill Bixby on Mar 27, 2010 7:24 PM CDT reply actions  

Around a 12 in the NFL and 4 more in the CFL, apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boise_State_Broncos_football#Current_NFL_players

by Don Gato on Mar 27, 2010 8:07 PM CDT reply actions  

If there’s one thing you need to take from Scipio’s write-ups it’s that next year’s 2-back offense absolutely has to be referred to as the "Jack’N’Jill offense""

The second he gets a royalty check, HenryJames is going be breaking out Grimm’s on a daily basis.

by parlin on Mar 28, 2010 7:35 AM CDT reply actions  

So in 8 years they managed to cobble together what would be an average single season for us. 2 TCUs, 2 Oregons, 1 OU, and 4 Oregon States would make for a decent single season schedule (though most of those OSU teams weren’t very good), but most SEC fans would be licking their chops at such a cakewalk. Yet, BSU will get a high ranking and hardly anyone will complain about their schedule, but we will get blasted in the media for our weak schedule if UCLA ends up crappy at season’s end.

I think Boise State would be in all likelihood another Iowa State if they were in the Big 12 North. There is the slim possibility they might have been more like the early-Big 12 KSU teams in Snyder’s first go around, but that is far from guaranteed. I think the mental aspect is very important…just ask Dan Hawkins.

by Ricky on Mar 28, 2010 4:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Boise St. has accomplished more quality wins this decade than Iowa St. with far fewer opportunities. Just from the eye test alone it’s clear that Boise St. is at a much higher level than the cyclones.

by Nickel Rover on Mar 28, 2010 7:14 PM CDT reply actions  

They have beaten TCU once, and been beaten by them once, I believe

by UT wildcatter on Mar 29, 2010 12:26 AM CDT reply actions  

They beat TCU in 2003 and 2009.

by Nickel Rover on Mar 29, 2010 12:03 PM CDT reply actions  

The one thing you have to give Boise is that they are extremely well coached. For a lot of the smaller conference schools, playing the big boys is as much of a mental challenge as it is a physical challenge. Boise does not seem to suffer at all from the mental side, as their record indicates. However, they are rarely (if ever) deserving of a top 5 ranking. They simply could not take the season long grind that comes from playing in a major conference. Sure, they can get up once or twice a year to beat Oregon or oklahoma, but they could not sustain that for a season. You have to give them credit for trying, as they have been scheduling some decent teams on their non-conference slate, but their conference is such a joke that I don’t think they will ever be deserving of a top 5 rating.

by lazer2280 on Mar 29, 2010 2:37 PM CDT reply actions  

We’ll go ahead and sign you up for the Geoff Ketchum school lazer.

by Nickel Rover on Mar 29, 2010 2:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Whoa, hold on there. Let’s not do anything drastic. Just pointing out that they never really have to play back-to-back big games, which is a very difficult part of a “big six” conference schedule. Texas 4-game stretch in ‘08 was brutal, and is something Boise simply doesn’t have to worry about. Moreover, there are teams in their conference (Utah State, New Mexico State, San Jose State) that have not been good, or even remotely decent, in quite some time. Let’s not ignore the conference they play in.

by lazer2280 on Mar 29, 2010 4:38 PM CDT reply actions  

But Nickel you gave the hypothetical about them dominating the Big 12 North. All you have are a handful of quality wins to hold up as evidence. Even if they were well-coached, there is no guarantee they could mentally overcome being a doormat. If BSU entered the Big 12 at its inception they would have been a doormat, probably THE doormat of the conference. Even with superlative coaching and a weak division it is more likely they would have spent about as many weeks in the Top 25 as they currently have victories over BCS teams over the past 12 years. BSU stakes its claims on beating one decent team each year and then pasting, or sometimes even squeaking out wins, against a conference largely full of the worst teams in the FBS. The season they beat 2 ranked teams in row (much less even have to face such a difficulty) will be their first.

by Ricky on Mar 29, 2010 7:23 PM CDT reply actions  

How is it more likely that they would suck in the Big 12 North? The lack of evidence of them against a string of good competition doesn’t necessarily damn them any more than their domination over weaker teams means that they are a powerhouse.
All the evidence we have is the eye test and the occasional contests with top-tier programs, all of which say that they are consistently better than over half the teams in the Big 12.

by Nickel Rover on Mar 29, 2010 8:19 PM CDT reply actions  

“The lack of evidence of them against a string of good competition doesn’t necessarily damn them any more than their domination over weaker teams means that they are a powerhouse.”

This is exactly my point. We simply won’t ever know how good they are as long as they play in the WAC. Yet you seem perfectly happy to give them the benefit of every doubt. In the quote above, you are basically conceding that there is no real evidence that they are a powerhouse. Yet in your article you point out that:

“What we do know is that they have enough depth to sustain excellence year after year. They haven’t relied on a few seasons with 1 or 2 standout players but have consistently put out strong teams. That suggests roster strength and player development that could weather the Big 12 better than has been advertised by figures like Ketchum. Does anyone think that they would have struggled to dominate the Big 12 North this decade?”

Sustained excellence? By what standard? Dominate the Big 12 North? Based on what evidence? You certainly seem to be making the argument that they are a powerhouse. Let’s not forget the minor miracle(s) that allowed them to beat OU. And last year’s Oregon game was one of the most brutal games I watched all year. I have nothing but respect for Boise, and I think they are a good team. I’m simply pointing out that there is really very little evidence behind their continual top 10 ranking.

by lazer2280 on Mar 30, 2010 8:12 AM CDT reply actions  

Sustained excellence by every standard we have to measure them, and their accomplishments aren’t all trivial, they dominate solid smaller programs without pause and they have taken advantage of all their recent shots to take down power programs.
I wouldn’t put them in the national championship for the same reason you wouldn’t but I would absolutely include them in an 8 or maybe even 4 game playoff.
I think they are as much of a powerhouse as any school save for the super heavyweights and their best teams can go toe-to-toe with those squads.
Really all this argument establishes is the need for a playoff though, just like the Atilla v. Alexander debate warrants a geeky television show dedicated to semi-scientific simulation.

by Nickel Rover on Mar 30, 2010 8:47 PM CDT reply actions  

I’m a Sooner fan and I really like Earl Thomas .. good speed, incredible instincts, stays away from the cheap shots. Got to respect that.

by pearljamrun on Mar 31, 2010 6:13 AM CDT reply actions  

Nickel,

I can agree with most of that. I think maybe my issues run slightly deeper than just being a devoted college football fan. I can’t stand the “everyone gets a ribbon for participation” attitude that our country seems to be adopting or the “we can’t have a winner because that means there is a loser” philosophy that seems to be so prevalent these days. I am all for positive re-enforcement, encouragement, and building people up. But I am also for reality. In life, there are winners and losers at everything. Losing doesn’t make you a bad person, and winning isn’t everything. Life isn’t fair. These are important priciples to learn. Yet Boise is the “participant” in college football. It’s not fair to their kids that they can win all their games, including a game or two against a good program, and not get a shot at the title. For this reason everyone wants to laud their talents from the mountaintop (i.e., the worldwide leader) and scream at the injustice. But hey, you play in the WAC. Life’s not fair. It is what it is. You won all your games, and it wasn’t enough. As long as you play in the WAC, it won’t ever be enough (in my mind, at least). Enjoy your accomplishment and move on. Let’s not waste time justifying a top-10 ranking and lamenting the fact that they don’t get enough respect. I’m not pointing the finger at you specifically there, Nickel, but more at the overall treatment BSU seems to get from the media. At the end of last year I was already hearing talk that Boise was a legitimate national title contender this year. I find that dumbfounding.

by lazer2280 on Mar 31, 2010 9:03 AM CDT reply actions  

I guess they might be, knowing typical sports media they probably return their skill players and lose the core of their lines and will lose 2 games.
I’m not in favor of the redistribution of happiness either but I can’t pretend that in our super subjective system that one of these Boise teams isn’t the best of their year. They do pretty well on the eyeball test when you watch them against elite competition. Most likely they would get knocked out by a USC, Texas or Florida that just outmatches them with athletes but who can know for sure?
I will say to the favor of the anti-BSU crowd that their big win over OU was against one of the worst quarterbacks the sooners have fielded this decade…which is saying something.

by Nickel Rover on Mar 31, 2010 8:51 PM CDT reply actions  

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