Forecasting Champions

I’ll disagree with you on your take that a one-loss or even two-loss team will play for the MNC. I think Ohio State effectively has a BYE right now to the MNC game in Arizona. They have (at most) two games that they can actually lose. On the road against Iowa is the biggest threat, but Iowa is notorious for late season swoons, and tOSU has never had a problem with Iowa anyway. I don’t think Penn State or Miami at home present big threats in 2010 either. We’ll see.

I think the trend that we saw last season of multiple teams running the regular season undefeated will continue. If Boise State beats Va.Tech, they’ll go undefeated and be in the MNC game. Period. In an extremely watered-down ACC, Georgia Tech or Va.Tech can win the round robin against the other, and that team has a real shot at being undefeated. And then there is TCU.

I do agree with your comments that Bama (and Florida) will not run the table. I think people are underestimating the losses on Bama’s defense, and while Julio, Richardson, and Ingram return to make the Bama offense formidable, I’m not sure that I was exactly impressed with the McElroy-led offense the last time I saw them play. No ability to complete forward passes nor pass block. At some point, if the Bama defense yields more points this season, McElroy’s arm is going to have to win some games for Bama, and that spells “upset” on some Saturday.

Florida is missing three vital keys to Meyer’s offense….and WR/RB that can stretch the field both horizontally on reverses and screens, and vertically with deep routes….in other words, Percy Harvin. Add in the loss of the ball control, between-the-guards chain mover (Tim Tebow), and the loss of a versatile TE who is a threat in the running game and the passing game (Aaron Hernandez). I’m not sure how the preferred Meyer approach of being able to attack a defense with shots to the gut (short runs up the middle to gain first downs), followed by stretching the defense horizontally (reverses, options to WRs and TEs, etc…), and finally a down field pass to a burner with one-on-one coverage is going to be executed? When I read that Meyer is experimenting with a possible 3-headed rotation at QB, I’m confident that Florida’s offense is grasping to be effective.

Finally, I don’t think USC can rebound to go undefeated, though I expect them to be really tough by November. I just don’t see that Barkley is going to be able to put up enough points behind 4 new starters on the OL, and the loss of McCoy at TE, Damain Williams at WR, and big-play threat McKnight in the backfield. I see a USC offense that will need to move the chains with Bradford pounding the rock, and safe passes from Barkley. A lot like Tennessee’s offense from 2009….“don’t turn the ball over and let the defense keep us in the game” philosophy. The only problem is that USC’s defense was porous last season, and they lose their entire secondary and best DL (Griffin). In the Pac 10, that means that Barkley will need to win a few games with his arm for USC, and he won’t be able to win them all.

As far as Texas and OU go, I don’t see either of them running the table. While I’m bullish on Texas’ defense, I think we lose one or two games that we don’t expect to as part of the growing pains of Gilbert and the realization that we don’t have a move-the-chains offense. Our offense will have more explosive plays, and we’ll run the ball better overall, but when we need a 3rd-and-4 completion to get a first down, we don’t have McCoy/Shipley/Cosby anymore to rely on, and that will get us beat at least once (either OU or @ Nebraska). Relying on John Chiles in the slot or Malcolm Williams out wide to make clutch catches and sustain drives is a little more than I can believe. If my theory that it will take an undefeated season to be in the MNC game is right, we’re in trouble.

As far as OU goes, I think they’re still struggling to find an identity, and they’ve got to view 2009 as a “window closing” year, while 2010 is the beginning of the next era (post-Bradford era), and it is rarely year #1 of an era that you reach the pinnacle. OU losing Bradford, Gresham, McCoy, Franks, Reynolds, English, Carter, T.Williams, etc…is just too much talent and leadership drain to overcome in one season. While having Landry Jones absorb the learning curve and growing pains in 2009 is an advantage heading into 2010, it doesn’t solve the OL problems, the DL depth issues, and the lack of proven CBs and LBs. They will have their hands full with offenses like A&M and Ponder at FSU. Somewhere, there is at least one loss to a worthy opponent (Texas, FSU, or @ A&M).

I’m done…..tOSU over Boise State for the MNC.

Good thoughts Glass Joe, you clearly did a little more thinking than I was prepared to do.
I don’t love tOSU going undefeated against Michigan, Penn St. and Miami even if all 3 were at home.
I don’t fully trust Terrelle Pryor in his game-to-game decisions and I’m not sure what they are losing on defense.
Boise st. over Virginia Tech is possible but hardly a guarantee in my mind and though they are the most likely undefeated team I’m not convinced the voters will allow them in the title.

I like Texas to lose @Tech and maybe another game in the gauntlet but ultimately be the superior team in the Big 12. 3rd and 4 is an interesting dilemna, it would be good if the running game were strong enough for play-action to be possible there. I trust Gilbert in that spot but someone has to step up inside. As the shotgun on the John Chiles bandwagon my money is on a committee of go-to-guys with Gilbert as the real trust.

I think Tech is a cakewalk this year. Call me crazy, but I’m loving the thought of Tuppy trying to play rock-solid SEC ball with a bunch of pass-trained, spread players and a defense that’s used to relying on the offense. Especially when they are still figuring stuff out less than a quarter of a way into the season.

Agree with tOSU as the champ. But I have them over us, while Gilbert gets revenge the following year before heading to the NFL (not necessarily over tOSU, mind you). Nobody wants to see lowly Boise in the final, especially after last season’s abomination of a game in the Fiesta Bowl and an upcoming loss to VT. TCU has the same problem with the Fiesta Bowl, except they actually lost the game. The ACC is round-robin and nobody gets out with less than two losses on the year, especially with VT, Miami, and FSU all looking “tougher” this year (or, should I say, at least within a sniper’s shot of their former prestige?). Bama loses too much on defense and has too mediocre of a QB to run the table in the SEC, and Florida just loses too much period (though I view the transition from Teabag to Brantley as nearly a lateral move). USC is recruiting great still, but Kiff will need a little time to do stuff his way (illegally). I’m not sold on Barkley, Bradford is the pinnacle of a mediocre RB (I.e. get ready for much Dillon Baxter), the receivers are experienced yet unreliable, no TE, no OL, no secondary, not a great defense overall. Which equates to no more than 1 loss in the mighty Pac 10, I’d assume. OU is a wreck right now. They have so many missing pieces it’s hard to believe people talk about them as a title contender. Cincy lost Kelly, Pitt lost Stull. Big East sucks anyways.

NC: tOSU
Runner-up: Texas
Big 10 Champ: tOSU
Big 12 Champ: Texas over Nebraska
SEC Champ: Alabama over Florida
Pac 10 Champ: USC
Big East Champ: Pittsburgh
ACC Champ: Virginia Tech over Florida State

Joe. Fun read, but your declarative of an undefeated Boise playing for the NC Period! is simply not correct. If any 2 BCS schools are also undefeated Boise, sucks hind tit. The computers will out them as the fraud that they are. Period!

Hell, even one undefeated school like Texas or tOSU plus a once defeated SEC champ such as AL or Fla or (fill in blank) would likely be in Arizona over Boise.

And Rover. It’s “y’all” not “ya’ll”. Please don’t make that mistake again. It’s unTexan.

It’s Brian Kelly not Chip. Chip hangs out at frats with masoli and runs ladies with LaMichael James.

Boise is not going to beat VaTech at Fedex Field and even if they do they will not get in over a one loss SEC team. TCU plays nobody of significance and the Fiesta Bowl last year didn’t do anyone any favors.

I am with Joe on the Ohio State pick. Pryor will be a year older and they should run the table next year. I think Florida wins the SEC next year. Remember the name Andre Debose. He has superstar written all over him and if Florida has problems anywhere it might be on the defensive side of the ball, but the roster is stocked with talent. USC loses too much and has a new coaching staff from a team that was extremely disappointing.

I’m laughing at the notion that OSU could beat us in the National Championship.

Who wins it? We do, ftw.

I should’ve been more clear. I see 4 possible undefeated teams: tOSU, Boise, TCU, and the ACC Champion (Va.Tech or Ga.Tech). I don’t see a scenario where the Big XII, Pac 10, or SEC gets a team through the season undefeated.

So, if Boise is undefeated, that implies that they beat Va.Tech on the road, and Oregon State at home. That would put them above an undefeated TCU (or Ga.Tech) in the pecking order, and hence, in the MNC game.

If Va.Tech is undefeated, that implies that they beat Boise and Ga.Tech, so they would be looking at #2 in the BCS poll, and that gets them to the MNC game. Note: I still think Miami will be a really good football team by November, so they could derail Va.Tech or Ga.Tech.

If TCU and tOSU are the only two undefeated teams at the end of the season, that’ll be your MNC game.

I do agree that IF there is only one (or zero) undefeated teams at seasons end, than the SEC champ with one-loss will be playing somebody in the MNC game.

Note to all: IF the SEC hadn’t produced an undefeated team (Bama) in 2009, they would NOT have finished ahead of Cincinnati or TCU in the final BCS poll. Repeat: a one-loss SEC team would not have been ahead of Cincy. In addition, after Butler’s little drama in March Madness, I think the days of undefeated “mid majors” in football being passed over for the MNC game are over, especially if Boise takes down a big dog like Va.Tech on the road. The voters would love nothing more than to stick a mid-major in the BCS conferences’ collective eye for the MNC game. It’ll happen.

Said it before and i’ll say it again. Unless it has changed… Bama has 6 games this year where they will be playing an SEC team with a bye week right before Bama. That’s tough to overcome.

Bama will lose 2 games minimum.

Boise will start the season in the top 5. If they go undefeated, they are playing for the NC

dick. You don’t understand or take into account the computers’ role in the BSC Poll.

But carry oon.

Uh, actually dick does.

If Boise wins while the teams ahead of them lose, they’ll ascend to the top of the polls. Where you’re ranked in the polls has a huge bearing on the BCS poll.

uh, dick simply stated an undefeated Boise will play for the NC. Period.

I don’t see where he took into account how any other teams fare.

So, uh……

Team BCS Average
1 Alabama .9978
2 Texas .9433
3 Cincinnati .8878
4 TCU .8836
5 Florida .8637
6 Boise State .8106
7 Oregon .7568
8 Ohio State .6568
9 Georgia Tech .6471
10 Iowa .6180
11 Virginia Tech .5675
12 LSU .5375
13 Penn State .5319
14 Brigham Young .4531
15 Miami (FL) .4419
16 West Virginia .3357
17 Pittsburgh .3141
18 Oregon State .2876
19 Oklahoma State .2628
20 Arizona .2248
21 Stanford .1803
22 Nebraska .1655
23 Utah .1245
24 USC .1207
25 Wisconsin .1203

Boise was between a 1 loss Fla. and a 2 loss Oregon with about the same total BCS points separating them from both teams. It will take a monumental confluence of events for Boise to play for the NC ever, regardless of their final record and their preseason rank. The computer element will punish them.

Hell, undefeated Boise settled in with the exact same computer numbers as a 2 loss Oregon did last year.

beowulf: I’m dubious of the claim that exacting grammar=proper Texan behavior but correction noted.
Donny Bodreaux: I addressed Bama’s bye schedule in an earlier post and it’s really not as brutal as it sounds. The best team they play in that stretch, LSU, has a bye before them for Alabama. They also play Georgia St., a team that has never played college football before.
If Alabama loses I think it’s more because of early games against Arkansas, Florida and Penn St., shaky QB play and a more vulnerable defense, it’s a tough schedule but it finishes pretty easy save for the rivalry Auburn game.

What the hell, I’m predicting an undefeated UT v. an overrated one loss Alabama for a rematch in the NC game while all the pundits nut in their pants about Gilbert’s revenge story.

Tressel doesn’t have the offensive know-how to take Pryor to the limit which costs them a game they shouldn’t lose, and a one-loss SEC team makes it in over undefeated Boise.

Gilbert hoists the trophy and dedicates it to Colt McCoy in a strong 32-17 showing.

Florida-Alabama-LSU all play each other in the regular season this year, so that three-way tilt means no one’s coming out of the SEC alive.

The ACC remains a conference with a bunch of teams that are great on one side of the ball and awful on the other: NC and VaTech on defense, Clemson and GaTech in offense… you get the picture. All about match-ups, which is why you get such insane results week to week. Again, no shot at a participant in the championship game.

Same for the Big East. A scrum of 8-3, 7-4 teams this year.

Last year, the Pac-10 was a disaster out of the gate and at the finish line, with ridiculous offensive fireworks in between. USC has the talent to run their table, but do they have the coaching? For all his swagger in front of a microphone, Lane’s a wimp on the sideline — he coached at least two games last year to manage the final (losing score), and he tossed the Alabama game with some cowardly play-calling in the last minute. So they’re my wild-card — I want to pick them, but I just can’t trust the coach.

I think the Big 12 comes down to the Texas-Oklahoma game (again). Flip a coin.

I think the Big 11 ends in a mini-Armageddon, with RichRod pulling the stunner over Tressel to deny OSU an undefeated season and still getting fired the day after.

I think a couple of earlier posters are onto the true national champion for 2010 — the computers. Somehow they will dredge enough meaning out of the “who did the teams you played beat, and who did those teams play” algorithm to pick a couple of BCS participants out of 10 one-loss teams.

Let’s go with tradition — earlier losses trump later losses. USC versus Texas, with Texas beating the snot out of the Kiffins. As a Tar Heel, I would love to see someone connected with Carolina football win championships.

Glass underestimates McElroy again.

He is everything a great college football team needs in a QB. He has never lost a game he started.

McElroy reminds anyone as old as Beowulf of James Street.