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The Big 12 in the pros

Football:

For a fantastic draft summary and several Scipio quips check here and then report back here for the view from the Nickel Rover draft command center I constructed in the Barking Carnival office out of Hazelnut coffee bins.

First let's all consider the fact that the Big 12 produced 6 top ten picks to a lowly 2 for the SEC. Of course the catch is that they are all from OU. If the Sooners really have held that much talent in the last 2 years then Texas victories mean some combination of the following:

A). OU players have been overrated in the draft II). Injuries to Bradford and Gresham crippled the team C). Texas has more top to bottom talent 4). Davis and Muschamp have outschemed/outcoached Bobby

All of these are pretty appealing options.

Overall I have thoughts on the following first round selections:

8). Rolando McClain to Oakland: Interesting that the Raiders departed from their usual tactic of taking the riskiest and fastest athlete available to take an instinctual and heady player with size. I'm curious to how he responds not playing behind the blob but in general I like him for the league. He should have fun with Lamarr Houston in the coming years.

9). CJ Spiller to Buffalo: I really like Spiller. If you have a team with a strong Offensive line and/or a spread offense it's essential to have a back who can destroy teams on plays with , screens, flares, draws, and plays with large holes. I would rather have a Chris Johnson or Marshall Faulk over any other back in the league, even Peterson. Buffalo is a strange location though considering their depth chart at running back and their host of other needs. A warmer climate would have been a better fit.

24). Dez Bryant to Dallas: What else were you expecting? Too bad they are already paying Roy Williams millions to do the same things. I really don't think Dallas' need at receiver justified a first round pick. Finding replacements on their rapidly aging line would have been better.

25). Tim Tebow to Denver: At first, as a McDaniels fan like ColoradoAg, I thought "oh they must have a specific purpose for Tebow in their offense". Then I thought about it for more than 2 seconds. They already signed Brady Quinn and still have Kyle Orton who should take Tebow into the film room for 2 years of study. I think Orton is pretty capable and Quinn a more likely pan out than Tebow. I would rate Tebow's likely value in the short term as a Wildcat-short yardage option and in the long term as a lesser Orton or very strong Halfback.

Unless you are building a triple option offense that requires the possession of a Steve Worster, a halfback is a lousy selection in the first round. Terrible value, especially when you have a far more talented quarterback to work on in Quinn.

27). Devin McCourty to New England: As a Pats fan I was hoping for CJ Spiller or maybe Jahvid Best here as they have lacked a worthy running back since clock killin' Corey Dillon. Their spread would improve dramatically with an upgrade over Kevin Faulk and his wretched band of injury-prone under-achievers. Instead they loaded up on another versatile, small, and physical corner of the variety that comprised their championship defenses. Then they grabbed Brandon Spikes in the later rounds giving them a pair of blue-chip inside linebackers that could be foundational for years of old school Belichek defense. Consider that their defense's failings have been a large part of their downfall it's not a terrible choice though early to grab McCourty. I think the absence of a difference maker at RB should be their priority for the remaining selections if their are any left to be had.

As far as Texas goes, I feel bad for Sergio Kindle. He came back for his senior year for the purpose of making money and then landed a 2nd round pick that probably wasn't better than what he could have had the year before.

He destroyed the Big 12 in his senior year but there were a few things that are holding him back. First and foremost is this, potential knee problems that could limit his career highlight tapes to Texas games.

Second is this, he doesn't really project as a dominant pass-rusher because of his slow shuttle times, lack of technique and the fact that most of his success came against lowly Right Tackles and chasing down guys flushed out by Houston, Orakpo and Roy Miller. The Ravens are a perfect destination for him as he can develop behind Suggs and Johnson and be useful in their zone-blitz scheme.

At Texas he was best as a 9-tech strongside DE/LB and I think the strongside OLB in a 3-4 zone-blitzing team is just about the perfect fit. Here's hoping he's healthy enough to wreak havoc in run defense and blitzing as he should be able to find space to do so behind Ngata and Mt. Cody.

Colt McCoy was dealt another blow in the game of life in dropping to the third round to be preyed on by the Cleveland Browns. Uh, good luck buddy. It's funny that he went behind Shipley (to the Bengals) as it pairs the two players that made Colt great in Cincinnati while subtly suggesting that Colt's success was in large part due to that tandem. I'm betting Palmer loves this addition.

Fake Ken Tremendous came off one of his coconut rum/Dilbert cartoon binges long enough to produce his 5th piece on the website. It's probably one of the funniest articles I've read here in months.

Basketball:

Texas signed Cory Joseph. It began as an afterthought solution to Texas' guard issues. "Well, there could be a scholarship spot for Cory Joseph, he's still undecided." Now it's set. Good deal, expectations for 2010 will now rise to the point where we can all be disappointed with the outcome.

Also, Trips Right jumped aboard the Thunder bandwagon after Durant's dominant 27-19 game where he turned Kobe into a surly loser by locking him down in the 4rth quarter. The gameplan I set out of attempting to lure Kobe into a scoring contest with Durant has worked to perfection and has secured one victory and another near miss in game 2.

I was already convinced that Durant had passed Bryant amongst the league's elite but I consider that to be less of a task than others do. For 1 season there are at least 5 players I would rather build my team around than Bryant. In fact, given a healthy year for Ginobli and their current contracts I would rather have the Raptor on my squad for his more efficient shooting, similar shot creation skills and turnover-producing defense at a far lower cost. Of course the injury trend is a difference maker in that competition as Kobe grits out non-debilitating injuries like a champion.

Still, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, Manu, Chris Bosh and Pau Gasol I think are all at a comparable level or beyond with Kobe this season.

He is wildly overhyped for his ability to take all his team's shots in the 4rth quarter and make enough difficult/contested shots to look good doing it and isn't a far better option for that role than most anyone else on that list.

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Kindle was projected to go last year where he went this year. He could have easily of slipped last year and now he is in an ideal situation with the Ravens. And he got to win a conference title and dominate in the NC game. I don’t feel bad for him. I think he went up at least 15 spots from where he ended up last year.

by dick on Apr 23, 2010 10:31 PM CDT reply actions  

all the Big 12 players drafted in the first round were from OU?

by Russel Okung on Apr 23, 2010 11:31 PM CDT reply actions  

Russel, maybe you didn’t learn about hyperbole in stillwater. You might notice that Ndamukong Suh, the 2nd overall pick, went to Nebraska.

Dick, you’re right that on the field Kindle has had a good career with a lot of potential opportunity but he also lost millions of expected dollars. If he stays healthy he could make it back for what Baltimore offers him in on the field success but in the short term he isn’t “breaking the bank” like he hoped.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 24, 2010 12:28 AM CDT reply actions  

He didn’t lose money by staying, he was a mid 2nd rounder last year at best and an early 3rd at worse. He lost quite a bit in the past week with this knee issue but are we sure that was a result of something that happened this year and not something undetected from a while back? Regardless, your success in the NFL is heavily predicated on the system and team you get put in and he couldnt have asked for a better situation there.

by dick on Apr 24, 2010 12:44 AM CDT reply actions  

I’ve got to quit drinking while reading about me. I’d get the joke sober. I think

by Russel Okung on Apr 24, 2010 12:57 AM CDT reply actions  

He actually did lose money. The money he would have made from spending 2008-09 in the pros as well as the loss of expected millions from a better draft placement to be earned by staying and improving his game.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 24, 2010 1:26 AM CDT reply actions  

Gresham would have been a Moss-level factor for OU and Greg Davis is a little underrated, as the offense ticked with Colt and Shipley and an RB who couldn’t start at Tech. Bradford is a difference maker, but those receivers were just awful. Check Bradford’s stats against Baylor. There were so many drops the WRs were getting booed.

by what I think on Apr 24, 2010 5:55 AM CDT reply actions  

I’m cynical, but I think the Tebow pick was pure marketing. The Focus on the Family folks down the road from Denver are going to eat that shit up.

by Morgan on Apr 24, 2010 12:50 PM CDT reply actions  

OU having three of the top four picks and also Gresham in the first round makes beating them 4 of the last 5 all the sweeter.

by hopefulhorn on Apr 24, 2010 1:17 PM CDT reply actions  

Couldn’t disagree more about Bryant. He’s almost impossible to guard, and he hasn’t been really healthy in like, what…5 years? He keeps adding to his game every single year. Yes, he’s not as athletic as he used to be, but he compensates with one of the best post-up games in history, improving his 3-point shot greatly, and getting to the free-throw line efficiently. He’s also a really good defender when he wants to be, and still nobody is better with the game on the line. Saying that Gasol and Ginobli are on the same level is laughable. HA HA (Gus Johnson style).

That said, I do agree Durant is basically at the same level as the Mamba and will be a better overall player than Kobe when history has its say (although Kobe’s legacy is pretty incredible).

On a side note, I’m surprised you didn’t include Chris Paul at the end of your post.

by Blake Borron on Apr 24, 2010 5:30 PM CDT reply actions  

Chris Paul is injured right now so he isn’t playing at a comparable level. The idea that Kobe is impossible to guard is pretty ridiculous. He’s shooting 38% in this series and is content to hit difficult fadeaways over smaller defenders. If he’s not healthy that doesn’t mean he’s playing exceptionally well it’s just a why for his non-dominance. His 3pt shooting percentage this season is 32.9% down from his career average of 34%.

As for Ginobili and Gasol. Ginobili, when healthy like he is currently, is similarly difficult to guard, penetrates better and has the comparable shot-creation skill. On a side not, again, he also comes at a much lower cost.

I would argue that Gasol might do more for the Lakers than Kobe. Everyone looks at Kobe’s points totals. Well he achieves those numbers by taking large numbers of both good and stupid shots. Gasol shoots at a higher percentage, rebounds significantly more and protects the rim on defense. When the Lakers win Kobe is typically taking under 25 shots and allowing Gasol to get higher percentage looks.

Based on the statistical evidence Kobe Bryant is not the basketball god who demands worship like your pronouncement suggests.

Best post-up games in history? I’m not sure he even breaks the top 200, you need to put down the glue bottle.

by Nickel Rover on Apr 25, 2010 1:23 AM CDT reply actions  

So let me get this straight, Ginobli gets the pass as one of the players you’d most build your team around/plays at a comparable level despite the fact that he’s chronically injured essentially because he is cheaper. Hmmm, seems like just a TAD bit of bias to me…

Yes…those are the differences between a star wing and a star big man, thank you. Other than the ridiculous assertion that Gasol does more for the Lakers, that’s just false.

Kobe isn’t playing well in this series. Is that the barometer for the rest of the season as well? I’ll save the time, the answer is a resounding no.

Kobe is one of the most unstoppable and technically adept players in the post. This is helped by the fact that he’s usually being guarded by other guards who aren’t used to being down there, plus he just moves better than big men and has way more moves than most of them. It helped for that guy Jordan too. I really hope the “not top 200” claim is just rhetorical hyperbole. He’s easily top 30, which I would say qualifies for being at the top. Just because he doesn’t live there, doesn’t mean he should be penalized for it. Again, Jordan was one of the best also…

I understand that you don’t like him, but you just aren’t looking at him objectively. Not surprising, people from Texas seem to generally HATE the guy. FWIW I hope he gets destroyed for the rest of the series, because I love basically everything about the Thunder. Thanks for your contributions to the site, I love reading them. Reasonable people can disagree :)

by Blake Borron on Apr 25, 2010 6:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks Blake, but I think you are wildly wrong about Kobe. His post-up is a means of saving energy, is limited in variety to a fadeaway, isn’t hit at a higher percentage (good forwards shoot around 50% in a good year), and can only be executed against guards. I’m not sure his post-up game is one of the best 30 this season, much less of all time.
I don’t think Jordan was an elite post-up player either.

I think I made the deferment that Ginobili’s chronic injuries was the deciding factor that knocked him down but I’ll repeat it. Kobe is healthy more often (or healthy enough) Ginobili has trouble staying healthy for an entire season. When both are healthy I think the gap is small.

The difference between big men and small men is usually that big men are more valuable. A really great power forward or center is generally worth more than a really good shooting guard because they just offer more advantages in a game of putting a ball in a 10 foot high basket. The great ones can get the easiest shots and prevent the easiest shots.

Most of the greatest players of all time who aren’t big men are guys that can manage the game and create shots for themselves and everyone else. Kobe does that really well but not historically well enough to match bigs like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar or “small” guys like Jordan, Bird or Magic.

And in final defense of Pau Gasol: Gasol attempted 844 shots in 2009-10 and on 13 shots per game scored 18.3 ppg. He also averaged 11.3 rpg, 2 “stocks” (steals plus blocks), and 3.4 assists per game.

Kobe Bryant attempted 1569 shots per game on 21.5 shots per game for 27 ppg. He also averaged 5.4 rpg, 5 assists per game and 2 stocks per game.

Can you really say that there is a huge difference in production save for Kobe have nearly twice as many opportunities to shoot? With the same number of shots as Kobe completed at the same rate as he did with 13 shots per game Gasol would finish with 29 ppg, while he averaged 2 fewer assists, the same number of stocks and twice as many rebounds.

That’s what a great big man offers and it’s really hard to match it if you aren’t a Bird, Magic or Michaelf Jeffrey Jordan. Do you call all that bias?

by Nickel Rover on Apr 26, 2010 3:24 AM CDT reply actions  

I just don’t see the “all that” that you are talking about. You keep saying it’s wrong, but I’d take a great wing (Kobe, LeBron, Durant, MJ) over a great big any day of the week. The best bigs aren’t de facto better than the best wings. My opinion is that a star wing is the most dominant position in basketball, because the ceiling is so high.

by Blake Borron on Apr 26, 2010 10:55 AM CDT reply actions  

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