Early 2011 NFL Draft Predictions

Acho didn’t make the list? I’m kind of surpsided with that. Maybe that is because he is getting moved inside.

Aaron Williams is Champ Bailey. People are going to notice that.

You’d take Locker over Bradford? That seems like a stretch to me. Luck reminds me of Bradford a lot. Should be interesting to see the jockeying for position next year a the qb spot.

This team just isn’t really loaded with 2011 NFL draft picks except at every corner spot and very likely Sacho unless his move to tackle slows him down. If so a team will make a steal in the late rounds grabbing him as a Strongside end or a 3-4 end.. It’s easy to point out Trent Richardson’s talent advantage over Ingram but I would take the Heisman winner in the first round. He’s punishing and hard to bring down in the open field and an adept hole-finder.

Ryan Mallet will be hyped but when scouts start to look at his accuracy they will appropriately grade him 4th round material.

He has no touch, no mobility and absolutely no moxie whatsoever. Think Jevan Snead at 6"7.

Comparing Snead to Mallet in the fashion you have done is just baffling, and entirely wrongheaded. Mallet will go high in the first round, and justifiably so. He might have the strongest arm the NFL has seen in the past 5 years from a QB, he’ll have plenty of highlight reel material to show, and he’s not going to melt down from social anxiety disorder like Snead. No moxie? Sorry, I didn’t realize moxie was what got QBs drafted high these days. Sure seems like they fucked up on the Colt McCoy Moxie Evaluation. Yet Bradford, who I would argue has only faced adversity in a football game about 4 times since he started at OU lost all 4 times and was knocked out of the game twice, and didn’t he fumble in the national title game against Florida? MOXIE.

NFL GM’s absolutely never put high value in ridiculous arm strength. At one point, it was a serious knock on Peyton Manning and had many scouts touting Ryan Leaf as a superior prospect. Jeff George was making rosters at like 38 years old.

Also, as long as we’re talking about the accuracy of Mallet to Snead comparisons, Snead was a relatively mobile QB. Hell, more than just “relatively.” He was fast out of HS, and he ran a bit at Texas. Also, he has a nice buzz cut, and Snead spent most of his collegiate years looking like an emo kid.

Scouts really only care about arm strength to the extent that a QB can hit the deep out from the other side of the field on a line. Being able to throw it through the uprights from the 50 has no additional value over someone who can fill out the passing tree.
The post-draft top ten typically has some mistakes from guys who haven’t been scouted yet. Adam Ulatoski was a predicted top ten. Was he even drafted?

“The post-draft top ten typically has some mistakes from guys who haven’t been scouted yet. Adam Ulatoski was a predicted top ten. Was he even drafted?”

Yes. He was selected by Houston in the 10th round of the post post draft.

The first few times I saw Mallet play I though Conan O’brian was using up his last year of college sports eligibility. The guy looks goofy as hell when he “runs.” Comparing him to Snead is just absolutely wrong. Snead has some moves, speed, and doesn’t look like Gumby.

NFL GM’s don’t give a shit about arm strength. Trust me.

J. Russ – What’s the good word?

Andrew Luck is a baller. The kid runs really well too — although I haven’t seen him do as much of it in college as he did at Stratford. In high school he ran a lot and got the end against pretty fast teams (Stratford was still 5A and I watched them play either Elsik or Hastings — can’t remember which). He is going to be a fantastic NFL quarterback but I’m not sure that he’ll come out early — he was also the valedictorian of his high school class, he’s going to Stanford, and he’s not desperate for the money. We’ll see.

Fuck off, Kiper! A Will is ours! Seriously though, good to see him get some love in the top 10. Amazingly, our last top 10 pick was VY. It’s not like we’re blessed to churn out 3 of the top 4 picks coming off an 8-5 season or anything.

Speaking of CBs, I LOVE me some Patrick Peterson. Dude is a stud and plays a tough, mean CB. In SEC land, I loved Trevard Lindley last year. He unfortunately got injured and fell to the 4th. I’ll still side with A Will, but I’d take Peterson over either of the Browns in a heartbeat.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Luck go back to school. Three reasons: (1) he obviously doesn’t need the money (his dad is Oliver Luck, FYI), (2) he’s getting a Stanford education, and (3) Harbaugh seems douchey enough to convince him to stay an extra year. What about all the naysayers now?

I’m surprised Kiper went with Quinn at 2 but didn’t list Marvin Austin. Austin seems like the crop of a thin DT class next year.

Kiper’s initial seniors top 5 list has exactly one Horn (Curtis Brown), two Aggies (Jerrod Johnson & Von Miller), and one Baylor Bear (punter Derek Epperson). Big XII bottom feeders to Texas: How do you like me now?!?

I think Mallett comps better to Matt Stafford than Jevan Snead.

I won’t pretend to know anything about OL but McShay had Adam Ulatoski in his initial top 10 last year. So there’s that.

Oh, and FUCK Marcel Dareus.

Toadvine, on Luck: it’s like we have ESPN.

Until Texas does the smart thing and retires Mac McWhorter to the nearest nursing home, the offensive line will continue to be the weakest position on the team.

Immobile Quarterbacks with Big Arms have no chance in the NFL.

Magnus,

Yes, I’d take Locker over Bradford, maybe not in a heartbeat, it would be a close call. Immobile QBs with twice fucked throwing shoulders don’t scream $60M signing bonus to me. I’ve seen Locker run for his life and still make plays, Bradford I haven’t. I was very surprised to see Locker’s improvement on accuracy last year, he has almost hit a VY like improvement curve in that area.

Toad and jc,

I agree that Luck could easily turn down #1 pick status to finish his degree.

Ryan Mallet will not throw 20 picks with a 54% completion percentage like Snead did. If he does, then he’ll free fall just like Jevan did.

JC25, I know I got sucked into the black hole of Oakland, but technically I was the last top 10 pick.

Dan – Whats the good word?

Sorry Michael, in the NFL, you’re easily forgettable. My bad. Hopefully, Houston + McClain + Huff will make the Oakland middle D a terror once again.

Thank you, I should get credit for being drafted 4 spots below Vincent

I think Sacho is getting the lunch pail, coach on the field treatment, nobody sees him as a physical freak like Orakpo or Kindle.

It seems entirely plausible to me that Eddie Jones goes ahead of Sam Acho in next year’s NFL draft. A college football season is comprises thousands of perception-changing observations that make and lose millions for kids—and that’s before the combine. Our stockpile of defensive end talent looks like FSU circa 1990-2000.

I would have taken Luck over Bradford this year. He’s the truth.

Good write up.
 
I’d disagree on Marcel Dareus. He’s big time and it took me watching about five plays of Alabama to know he was their best DL by a wide margin. I even wrote that he was the key guy to stop in Bama’s D in my Rose Bowl preview. Little did I know…

Further proof the coaches should be reading Scip’s stuff. I’m now holding you acountable for not spamming them with this warning enough.

uhh…never mind.

Seriously, the draft just ended, do we really have to start talking about the next one already?

Also, tap the breaks on AJW = Champ Bailey. Let’s not forget Bailey ran a tidy little 4.28 at the fugging combine….sheeeeeit

dick, I wouldn’t say Bradford’s shoulder was twice fucked. Maybe once fucked and then before he could recover, A. Williams slid him some more. It was the same injury that he hadn’t recovered from.

I think Williams’ size and ball skills measure favorably to Champe, but maybe not his all out speed. I’m fine with the comparison.

“Seriously, the draft just ended, do we really have to start talking about the next one already?”

Yes?

Scipio, no doubt that Dareus was their best DL last year, I am trying to say that nobody (ESPN) noticed that Dareus was a stud and it was all Cody and the back 7 getting the credit. I still don’t see him as a top 7 pick in the draft type player. Julius Peppers he is not. He is more of a Lamarr Houston type guy and with an extra 15 lbs, I could see him being a more full time DT and become a steal as a 2nd round pick like Lamarr was. I’m not sure he is even an early entry candidate. Great player though.

huge,

don’t hold your breath on AW running over a 4.4 at the combine. I know MBTF can over do the size of some of our players but AW has 2 inches and 15 lbs on Champ coming out of college. That said Champ is a 10 year All Pro and AW was our nickel back last year, its all projection.

magnus,

I’m no doctor but I thought shoulder sprains were not the injuries you wanted repeated. I am impressed with Sam putting on 15 pounds of good weight during his time off. That helped justify his top pick status for me. It shouldn’t have shocked anybody to see him get hurt last year behind that OL. The adjustment from having all day to having no time was going to be too much for him and he was pretty skinny at 6’4.5" 220lbs. I still worry about him getting mauled by Ray Lewis but no QB is safe from NFL injury.

“Mallet will go high in the first round, and justifiably so. He might have the strongest arm the NFL has seen in the past 5 years from a QB”

That and his height are his only two elite attributes right now. His accuracy is woefully bad. One of the worst red zone QB’s in the SEC last year. He cannot hit a fade rout or simple swing passes for lack of touch and crumbles at the worst possible moments. His footwork is so bad Jamarcus Russell reportedly watched his film and yelled “Plant your feet white boy!”

Just watch their Bowl Game against East Carolina for why he decided to come back next year.

Did I mention he has off the field issues and his work ethic is in question? When the scouts start tearing him apart his house of cards will fall quickly unless he improves next year.

Very true, dick.

I like Aaron Williams and Curtis Brown………..and possibly even Sam Acho as possible 1st round picks next year.

I also really like that CB Prospect Patrick Peterson as well.

Sailor, why post that? Take it down immediately.

Save it for the “What goes wrong when you don’t pick up the corner blitz” post. Aeneas Williams for the mf’ing win. Damn, that sucked.

dick,

Sam’s problem wasn’t one of durability, it was one of poor self-awareness. That’s actually what worries me about him in the NFL. The injury itself was simply a matter of Bradford doing a poor job protecting himself, and it wasn’t the first time it happened.

In 2007, OU looked to be ready to whip Texas Tech in Lubbock. After an early pick 6 giving us a 7-0 lead, the OU offense took the field after shutting down Tech for the 2nd straight drive. Then, Bradford throws a rare interception and decides to try to make the saving tackle. He ended up with a concussion in the process, and we ended up not being able to get our offense going until the 4th quarter. 34-27 Tech. Sam got his ass chewed out by every offensive coach during the offseason for that.

Fast forward to 2009. Bradford gets picked up on a backside overload blitz and instead of rolling his body to fall on his back like most QBs do, he just falls over sideways with the full force of the hit landing directly on his shoulder. Dr. Andrews stated in no uncertain terms the issue with Sam was the way he fell. It’s not an issue of durability, it’s an issue of body control and being aware enough to protect yourself. I think that’s what is really going to make Sam a liability, if anything does.

Thus Gruden’s label: "Sam, you are the worst slider in QB history!

In fairness, I’ve often had the same thoughts about Colt. When he gets hit off a blitz he falls like a rag doll, not like a dude than runs like he does.

Nate,

I agree that the main issue is the self awareness or lack thereof. Both from a getting hit standpoint and a what to do after you get hit standpoint. Getting hit is a way of life for QBs in the NFL not named Peyton Manning. Anybody can get hurt if they get “Aneas Williams’d” like Steve Young did. I still think packing on 15 pounds of muscle will help Bradford take the pounding that he will no doubt receive due to the aforementioned lack of self awareness.

Toad,

I agree that the same thing applies to Colt re: self awareness and avoiding the big hit. That shit won’t fly for a minute in the NFL.

Being a die-hard Alabama fan and living roughly 35 minutes from Tuscaloosa, I’ve seen a lot of Marcel Dareus since he stepped on campus. Trust me, the guy in unblockable. Sure, Cody and McClain got the publicity, but Dareus was a part-time player as a true sophomore behind a talented group of upperclassmen and he put up numbers that would draw envy from most full-time starters at his 3-4 DE position. The bottom line: The hype surrounding the future top 10 overall draft pick is justified. Everyone can bank on that prognostication.

I know you have to be careful with prognostications, but as of right now, I’m saying he’s gonna be a top 10 overall pick in his respective draft, whether in 2011 or 2012.

Trey, hey who gives a shit?!

Naw just fucking with you. Thanks for giving your opinion without mentioning you know what.

I think Bama lost too much D and their already brutal schedule is compounded by the fact that 6 of the teams they face next year have a bye week preceding the Bama game. I can’t see them repeating. What’s your take on next year?

No, “magnus,” I don’t “know what.” Plus, I’d appreciate the heck out of it if you would consider that your filthy language might actually offend some people. This IS a freaking public forum, after all, so take that into consideration. Would you throw around that nasty mouth in society? Oops! Why would I even ask that question? I’m nearly certain someone like you would.

Hey I’m a huge fan of your site. Thanks for creating it. :)