NFL Draft: Evaluation - Rounds 1 2
NFL fans regard the NFL Draft the way seniors regard nursing home MegaBingo.
Both sit mesmerized for days listening to announcements punctuated by long silences, consult and scribble on various prompts, crib sheets, and fetishes to guarantee vigilance, and punctuate the proceedings with random exclamations of joy, flatulence, fatigue, angina, and hopelessness.
Occasionally, a large black man in a baseball cap walks in front of them and they all cheer mightily. In the case of the NFL Draft, this is a coveted defensive tackle. In the case of the home, that's Keith, and Keith means salisbury steak night!
Ultimately, both proceedings conclude with rubbish everywhere and the vague smell of urine.
Thanks, Jet fans.
I'm going round by round to break down who shat the mattress and what General Managers deserve special release from their Filipina caregiver. My draft evaluation methodology blends relative value, marginal value, need, hair of Kiper, eye of newt, and is informed largely by my world view that football is better when a team has at least one Asian skill player.
Ohhh Herrrroo, Hines Ward!
I will evaluate all QBs in terms of leadership, accuracy, arm strength, and likelihood of imposing their will on comatose women. Actual women. I don't mean the Detroit Lions.
Round 1 Plaudits
Seattle - Earl Thomas #14
At #6, they take a 10 year starter in OT Russell Okung. Solid pick. Workmanlike pick. Blue collar pick. I'm running out of obligatory talking-head offensive line antecedent adjectives...(consults Peter King dictionary)...lofty, lunch-pail, union organizer, Mob run pick.
The surprise Amazon gift certificate in the Seattle stocking was at #14 with Texas safety Earl Thomas. Seattle's Draft Room was visibly shocked he was still available. As if Pete Carroll had willed it through Twitter. Earl is a much needed shot of athleticism for a moribund Seahawk secondary, arguably the best cover corner of the draft, much less safety.
Most crucially, Pete Carroll avoided the common pitfall of former college coaches: overvaluing players from their former school. Say hello, Steve Spurrier and Jimmy Johnson (before you retort Russell Maryland in glib contrarian fashion, please know that you will lose this argument). So stiff upper lip, Taylor Mays.
Cincinnati - Jermaine Gresham #21
Carson Palmer is messin' with Sasquatch. I struggle to recall an important game in college where Gresham didn't come up big. Cincy got no production at TE from Chase Coffman last year, and it was the missing complement to a surprisingly good running game and an OchoCinco or bust receiving corps. Palmer finally has an elite TE red zone threat; that means 6s instead of 3s.
Arizona - Dan Williams - #26
On a blended value and need basis, Tennessee DT Dan Williams is perfect. Arizona needed a strong presence inside to control the line of scrimmage and Williams is it - sort of a Terrence Cody after a Curves class, with a battery life that extends beyond two plays, and less myocardial infarction risk. Go all in on the Cardinals winning their division.
NY Jets - Kyle Wilson #29
I read a few articles wondering why the Jets would draft a cornerback when they already have Revis and Cromartie and it gives you some insight into how unimaginative professional observers of the NFL are.
In a pass oriented league - eleven quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards last year - with division rival, pass-happy New England their primary competition for division supremacy (and for title of most unintentionally amusing fanbase) - the elite nickel back is akin to the stud situational pass rusher of the '90s. Gonna need one.
I watched a lot of Kyle Wilson at Boise and he is a Rex Ryan ass-kicker in every respect.
Honorable Mention: Jerry Hughes, Colts #32.
Round 1 Pans
Jacksonville - Tyson Alualu #10
Jewish American Princess says to her father, "Daddy, can I please have 50 dollars to go shopping."
Father says, "30 dollars!? What do you need 20 dollars for!?"
Jacksonville executed a similar draft tactic, only in reverse.
#13 Philly - Brandon Graham
Nothing against Graham as a player - strong base, good pass rusher, the only bright spot on a horrid Michigan defense - but this was a bad tactical play. The Eagles sacrificed two third rounders in a notably deep draft to move up 11 spots and nab a player that might have made it down to 24 anyway. The next two DEs taken were Jason Pierre Paul and Derrick Morgan, players both of those teams coveted.
They gave up the right to pick up two potential NFL quality starters on the 3rd round cheap because they got all crush-y on Brandon. It almost makes you want to upchuck on a family.
NY Giants - Jason Pierre-Paul #15
Pierre-Paul has all of the indications for failure. Former JUCO. Wyclef Jean music fan. Only one year of FBS football against weakish competition, and an incomplete season at that. Better in pursuit than holding the point of attack, which the Cowboys will murder, to name just one team. Eye popping physical traits (he can do flips! woohoo) with indicators of solely linear athletic ability (see shuttle time). The Giants have had a fine run of DE draft evaluations, but experience and wisdom scream bust.
Denver - Tim Tebow #25
I haven't seen this much of an intangible frenzy since Barbara Hershey in The Entity.
Listen, Alex Smith was the Urban Meyer QB that could actually throw and look at him now. The genius of the Meyer offense is its multitude of incredibly wide open felons and Fijis sprinting around the field while your defense stares dumbly at the pyrotechnics of motion, deception, and tomfoolery swirling about it. This doesn't translate well to the rigid traditionalism of the NFL and 2.7 seconds to throw. Tight windows are bad for average passers. And felons.
McDaniels just staked his coaching career on a jump pass leap of faith.
Pan Honorable Mention: Trent Williams, Washington, #4
Round 2 Plaudits
Oakland Raiders - Lamarr Houston #44
That Oakland had a good draft suggests that Al Davis is already dead and is being propped up by ventriloquist staffers as in Weekend At Bernies. I bet Dead Al gets in madcap situations while being pushed around on a roller chair near trafficky hills. Oh, Hollywood! You're the best.
Houston's quickness will translate to the NFL if they're smart enough to play him as a 3 technique. He dominated the Big 12 as a senior, whipped a physical Alabama OL in the title game, and is a high effort guy. This is one small step towards Raider competence and the improbable siren-song of a 8 win season.
Carolina - Jimmy Clausen #48
From a Roethlisbergerian perspective, I don't see Clausen as a r-a-p-i-s threat. A classic narcissist, Jimmy would probably only try to touch himself up.
Jimmy has a clear-cut NFL arm, reasonable accuracy, played through injury, played in a NFL offense at Notre Dame, received good QB tutelage under Weiss, and is an acceptable overall athlete.
His downside is that he's perceived as a selfish prick. Somewhere Jim McMahon and Phillip Rivers are smiling. I understand that in the age of Brees/Manning/Brady it's seductive to believe that all effective quarterbacks are selfless, but it just ain't so.
Clausen is headed to a team with elite running backs, an exceptional wide receiver, and a great run blocking line. His competition is Matt Moore and a border collie that fetches kicking tees.
Pittsburgh Jason Worilds #52
Oh look everyone: the Steelers drafted another underrated Red-Bull fueled maniac OLB with a nasty disposition, a desire to impale quarterbacks on the crown of his helmet; his jock filled with Icee Hot, rage drippings, and stinging lice.
Wash, rinse, repeat. The jock, specifically.
Cleveland Browns - Montario Hardesty #59
Every time I looked up last year, Montario Hardesty was breaking three tackles to gain four yards against an eight man SEC front brought on by Jonathan Crompton at quarterback and Lane Kiffin coaching.
This is good training for Cleveland.
Hardesty got hard yards and the NFL is league full of those. He was surrounded by gibbering buffoons and still cranked out 1345 yards and 13 TDs. Also, he's named Montario.
Honorable Mention: Golden Tate, Carlos Dunlap, Sergio Kindle, Charles Brown
Round 2 Pans
Tampa Bay - Brian Price #35
He was a good player at UCLA, but I'm not a huge fan of hearing "work ethic issues" and defensive tackle in the same sentence. Throw in that Raheem Morris is the head coach and something less than a commanding presence, and I'm going to set the mini-camp body fat reporting percentage over/under at 20%.
Cleveland Browns - TJ Ward #38
Cleveland struggled mightily against the pass last year, so they drafted a run-stopping safety with an injury history. That's not what the league was expecting.
THUS CLEVELAND HAS SEIZED THE THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE!
Honorable Mention: Arrelious Benn, Terrence Cody
Don't miss Rounds 3-7.
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Ummm…..is this thing on? I threw my allegiance to the Browns when the first Longhorn superstar I witnessed, E. Metcalf, went there. I will be rooting hard for Colt, but it has been a tough team to stand by. I hope for some bright spots.
by babytime on Apr 26, 2010 4:14 AM CDT reply actions
Horn fans everywhere snickered at the Trent Williams pick. Watched him get smoked by our DE’s for years.
by Jim at Jimbo's on Apr 26, 2010 4:30 AM CDT reply actions
Scipio concur completely on Clausen. Sucks for him he lost the front money but he couldn’t ask for a better situation. Also concur on the Tebow pick. Great kid, he might save the world some day, but he probably won’t pan out as an NFL QB. Also what’s your take on the general lack of “Moneyball” tactics from NFL front offices? The Pats seem to have it down but many others don’t. What am I missing?
by Whiskey on Apr 26, 2010 7:03 AM CDT reply actions
“Tight windows are bad for average passers. And felons. "
I know you laughed when you thought of that. Good stuff.
by LonghornScott on Apr 26, 2010 7:55 AM CDT reply actions
babytime –
As a little kid, I randomly decided to like the Browns during the days of Dixon & Minnifield, Kevin Mack and Earnest Byner. They were fun to root for, though ultimately heartbreaking.
Jim –
Trent Williams certainly checks out physically. I’ve just seen too many guys work him to not have concerns. He’s in a division facing Demarcus Ware, Umeniyora and Trent Cole each twice a year. I guess he’s happy he’ll only see Orakpo in practice.
Whiskey -
Every year people predict the draft will unfold in some sort of rational fashion (which is why mock drafts always amuse me for their lack of trades and banishment of behavioral psychology) and every year they’re shocked to find that human beings in markets with live bullets exhibit irrationality, greed, euphoria, and fear.
LonghornScott -
Thanks.
by Scipio Tex on Apr 26, 2010 8:37 AM CDT reply actions
“a border collie that fetches kicking tees” WHOOP!
My comrades in Colorado have informed me that Tebow jerseys are already being spotted. Shoot me. Where have you gone Jacob Plummer?
by coloradoag on Apr 26, 2010 9:00 AM CDT reply actions
Does the NFL even have moneyball tactics? I’m not sure any team heavily incorporates advanced statistical metrics into their analysis. However, if you’re talking about the concept of unearthing undervalued players that fit a given scheme, I think there’s several other teams (aside from the Patriot way) that does a great job of this. The Ravens stick to a defensive philosophy similar to what the Broncos did on offense prior to firing Shanahan. The Steelers always seem to unearth prospects on both sides of the ball. The Eagles do wonders with salary cap management. And the Colts are lucky enough to build around the aura of Peyton Manning.
by jc25 on Apr 26, 2010 9:13 AM CDT reply actions
My comrades in Colorado have informed me that Tebow jerseys are already being spotted.
A little tape over the nameplate, and that Brandon Marshall jersey becomes usable again.
by Triston27 on Apr 26, 2010 9:21 AM CDT reply actions
Williams may not be the Skins’ LT answer … but, he can’t get any lower than Heyer.
Shanahan said he liked both Williams and Okung … with Williams superior “athleticism” as the determining factor. A contest between dancin’ bears, I suppose.
by VirginiaLonghorn on Apr 26, 2010 9:21 AM CDT reply actions
colorado ag -
Thanks for cracking me up. Well done.
jc25 -
Some teams are using advanced metrics, but there’s very little sharing in the public domain and certainly not across teams. The NFL is truly the last pro sports refuge of “You’re not a coach.”
These guys try: http://www.aaronschatz.com/
by Scipio Tex on Apr 26, 2010 9:21 AM CDT reply actions
Scip,
Thoughts on Toby Gerhart? I like him as a player because he bullies the hell out guys and is, well, a cracker RB. Was 2nd round too early?
by coloradoag on Apr 26, 2010 9:40 AM CDT reply actions
Gerhart — he get’s a plus for retard strength. Minus for carrying the ball eleventy million times in college. He projects to be Ron Dayne Jr., only whiter.
by Toadvine on Apr 26, 2010 9:43 AM CDT reply actions
I will bet straight cash money that you will see a higher per capita ownership of Tebow jerseys in Colorado Springs than in Denver. Evangelical hive of scum and villainy imo.
by hodad on Apr 26, 2010 9:49 AM CDT reply actions
I saw more than enough of Trent Williams to know this: He’s not the skins solution at LT. He’s better than Heyer, but he’s still going to get pistol whipped before they eventually admit defeat and move him to RT.
OTOH, I also saw plenty of Okung, and he did admirable jobs against both Orakpo and Kindle, and he can drive block like a motherfucker.
Add in the fact that the Skins failed to move Haynesworth, which is showing all the signs of being a total debacle next season, and they managed to make two huge moneyball mistakes: Overvaluing atheleticism vs. production and failing to understand sunk costs.
by bateshorn on Apr 26, 2010 9:50 AM CDT reply actions
Awesome stuff. I’m still smirking thinking about Dead Al in the conga line.
Tell me what you think about my Vikings draft. I thought Cook was fine and Gerhart was a big reach. I like Gerhart as a player but not for the price of two ‘first day’ picks from this draft. Also I think it was foolish to pass on Clausen twice. As you correctly point out there are a slew of examples of successful prick quarterbacks and if you can get one with The Jimmy’s skills in the second round you’re stealing. Dan Marino laughs at the NFL’s aversion to Clausen while casually choking his prostitute.
by Minnesotahorn on Apr 26, 2010 10:22 AM CDT reply actions
Babytime and Scipio:
Between the Longhorns and the Browns, the 80’s must have been a tough decade.
I’m not sure where Marty Schottenheimer is these days, but I bet Elway stops by once or twice a year to taunt him.
by Roach on Apr 26, 2010 10:56 AM CDT reply actions
Dez Bryant taken at #24 wasn’t too shabby considering he has possibly the highest athletic ceiling of anybody.
by drankthewine on Apr 26, 2010 12:12 PM CDT reply actions
Excellent, a Juice Ball!
“I was jacked leaving that room. I didn’t even want to visit another room. It was not enough time,” Tebow said. “We were excited, we were enthusiastic. There was passion. It was just intense, and it was ball, and it was juice. The juice level in that room was high, and it
NFL draft was awesome.”
by Sailor Ripley on Apr 26, 2010 12:35 PM CDT reply actions
colorado –
I like Gerhart. He’s a pure power back with good balance and that’s an excellent fit for Minnesota. He’ll extend Peterson’s career. However, why do the Vikings pass on Clausen there? They have experience with self-centered QBs post-Favre.
Toadvine -
Ron Dayne avoided contact more than any 255 pound RB in history. That said, Gerhart’s retard strength can’t be denied.
Minnesota -
I know zero about Cook.
I don’t understand why the Vikings passed on Clausen. Maybe they just hated the guy. Or maybe they went into the draft with a plan that they were going to execute, come hell or high water.
I talked about Gerhart above, but he can’t be the 3rd down back like Chester Taylor.
Everson Griffen in Round 4 is interesting I guess. Talk about an underachiever.
by Scipio Tex on Apr 26, 2010 5:52 PM CDT reply actions
Roach -
I was like, 10, so I imagine I just rode my bike and built a fort in the woods to recover. Poor Marty.
drank –
No doubt. He’s boom/bust.
Sailor –
Great find.
by Scipio Tex on Apr 26, 2010 5:55 PM CDT reply actions
It’s a funny article.
This part:
A whole lot of lore
The tall tales of Tebow’s high school and collegiate feats are true, not fiction.
Tebow once played three quarters of a prep game — and scored on a 29-yard run — with a broken leg. (He missed the rest of that season.) In his final game at Nease High School in Ponte Vedra, Fla., he begged his way off the sideline and into the Panthers’ defensive line, where he lined up at nose guard on the final series of the game. (His team won.)
I hear told in the voice of the narrator of the Dos Equis commercials for the most interesting man in the world.
Stay chaste, my friends.
by Sailor Ripley on Apr 26, 2010 10:02 PM CDT reply actions
.
Conversely, LT prefers to Stay Thirsty.
by Sailor Ripley on Apr 27, 2010 12:05 PM CDT reply actions
So… what are you planning Big-Game sunday? MegaGate2011.com$100k up for taking at the 2011 MegaGate vegas!
by Todd Guttman on Jan 1, 2011 1:30 PM CST reply actions

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