A Way Too Early Top 10
Mark Schlabach, SEC bootlick, and ESPN college football analyst, put up his revised preseason Top 25, presumably on the strength of breakout Spring game performances wherein quarterbacks tortured 3rd teamers with unerring accuracy and proliferate moxie.
Obviously, it's early, but I thought I'd weigh in with a few thoughts. And, in fairness to Schlabach, I'm sure many of his opinions will change, but likely for the wrong reasons. I'll just look at his Top 10.
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1. Alabama Crimson Tide
This is the default media stance of rewarding the defending champion, as if titles transfer from one year to the next with a team made up of 50% new faces. I do think Alabama will be successful in replacing one of their corners capably with Dre Kirkpatrick, I love Dareus far more than Cody, but the D's issue actually has to do with range at safety, whatever their accolades.
Quarterback Greg McElroy, who hasn't lost a game as a starter since the eighth grade...
Schlabach is already parroting the Bama media guide in playing the "Greg McElroy hasn't lost a game since 8th grade" card, and, after seeing Greg McElroy in person, he doesn't belong on any list other than "Appeared To Have Money On Texas In MNC Game" or "May Visibly Shit Himself On National Television." I fear a media massgasm for McElroy's winnerness that will be Tebowian in its scale. "Yes, he handed off to Ingram and Richardson 45 times and only threw 11 passes, but did you see HOW he did it? With winnerness."
2. Boise State Broncos
If the Broncos can beat Virginia Tech on Labor Day night at FedEx Field in Landover, Md., there's a good chance they'll finish unbeaten for the second season in a row. And with a Sept. 25 home game against Oregon State looming on the schedule, Boise State could very well be in the BCS title game hunt at season's end.
He's right, and this irritates me on several levels. First, Boise is supposedly "stepping up" by playing Oregon State at home and Virginia Tech in Maryland, essentially giving them a two game season. 2-0 bangs the dumb drums for them to get a national title shot, 1-1 keeps them in the Top 10, 0-2 just reconfirms their scrappy cuteness.
Oregon State has comparable athletes to Boise - they basically are what Boise St would be in a major conference - and Virginia Tech is reliable in its ability to roll out daunting looking teams that will lose to Maryland or North Carolina State.
The common retort on Boise's behalf is that big conference teams play scrubs too. Sort of. The degree of scrubiness is key and where the hidden risk of a college football season is found. Texas Tech, however bad you may think they'll be, is not San Jose State. When Boise plays Idaho and such, they have a 99% chance of winning. When Texas plays Oklahoma State, we have a 90% chance of winning. Not a big deal, right? String together just four games of that sort and Boise's chance of being 4-0 after that stretch is 96%.
Our chance with only a slight decrease in chance of winning? 65%.
The hidden risk of a college football season isn't in one big game - it's in the totality of playing a respectable schedule. As funny as it sounds, average teams are dangerous. Ask USC. This is what Boise apologists don't get.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
I buy this. Pryor had offseason knee surgery, he's running again, the Rose Bowl was a big confidence boost for him, and they have a friendly Big 10 schedule aside from a tough roady at Iowa.
4. Texas Longhorns
What I know about first year starters at quarterback is that they will have at least one game in which they throw three interceptions. What I know about this offense is that we will drop 40+ on a number of softies and play in the teens or low twenties against quality defenses. Our defense will be very good, but situationally vulnerable. We can't have three and outs from our goalline or quick change turnovers. Common sense tells me that spells two losses after the full season plays out. Does that get you to #4?
5. Virginia Tech Hokies
It seems every year that sportswriters, bloggers, and college football fans predict that this is Virginia Tech's year to really do something. Every year, Virgnia Tech offers a luge-style descent from hype after losing on the road to some non-entity. Then doing it again three weeks later after "righting the ship." Amusingly, either Boise State or Virginia Tech will win big media bones early for essentially unmasking the fraudulence of the other.
6. TCU Horned Frogs
Their schedule dictates a 0, 1, or 2 loss season. Voters love that 0 in the loss column, irrespective of opponent, so yeah, I could see this. However, like Boise, their ranking may be best served by missing the BCS altogether - unless they can score another mid-major match or a ACC champ - then obliterating someone in a minor bowl, and then whining about being robbed. Voters will always boost you a couple of ranking spots based on what you might have been.
The holes on TCU's defense are more glaring after linebacker Daryl Washington, defensive end Jerry Hughes and cornerback Rafael Priest left. The linebacker corps might be a big problem area if projected starter Tank Carder doesn't recover quickly from shoulder surgery.
I'm not so sure I trust a TCU team that will win its games with offense. They'll get play out of their defense, as they always do, but the holes are too big to spackle over.
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers
They're certainly the prohibitive preseason favorite in the North and they get Texas at home, but a Top 10 ranking is predicated on the development of something more than disappointment from Zac Lee. Lee can light up bad defenses, but hits the wall quickly against a reasonable opponent. Cody Green needs to become a viable passer. If I'm Pelini, I may make the move to Green ASAP and take the lumps.
8. Florida Gators
A lot of things to consider with respect to Meyer's Mexican Health Dance, their 58% reduction in Christianity at quarterback, and losses from their defense. Still, these guys are brimming with talent and Meyer can coach. I don't really have a problem with this, particularly given the relatively soft SEC East.
9. Wisconsin Badgers
I have no comprehension of the preseason Wiscy love. If I have a Big 10 team here, it's likely Iowa. If it's simple ignorance, educate me.
10. Oregon Ducks
See #9. Oregon's affinity for taking thugs and miscreants is catching up to them and Masoli, even though he can't outrun a frat boy, was crucial to making the Oregon running game go. I don't doubt that Chip Kelly will have tricks up his sleeve on offense with Nate Costa at QB or sophomore Darron Thomas, but a QB transition paired with a defense that has yet to play any casts doubt on a Top 10 finish.
I suppose the thinking is that the Pac 10 is off, USC is down, so naturally it's Oregon's year. I can find three losses without looking too hard.
If you're swayed by offense and unreliable defense, why not Arkansas?
***
What are your way-too-early thoughts?
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VaTech will not beat Boise State. I have a sneaking suspicion that the latter will wind up in the MNC and get utterly spanked by whomever they play. Much as your TCU example above, should that happen it will do the mid-majors far more harm than it does good in the mid- to long term. In one season, Boise could blow 10 years worth of accumulated social capital if it doesn’t handle this well.
by fitzhume on May 3, 2010 6:40 PM CDT reply actions
Cody Green needs to become a viable passer.
And I need to become taller and more handsome. I’ve actually got a better chance of doing both than Cody Green has of becoming a viable passer.
If I’m Pelini, I may make the move to Green ASAP and take the lumps.
If you’re Pelini, you’re actually more earnest and somewhat less wittier than you are now. You’re also barely concerned with this thing called “offense.” In your more Heideggerian moments, though, you ponder the offensiveness of offensive turnovers, and are sure that someone who throws interceptions and fumbles under pressure is not your guy.
Green starts at qb if and only if everyone else is hurt—this includes Taylor Martinez, who has been turning heads this spring. The Huskers will be the third- or fourth best team in the B12, and a good bet for top fifteen nationally. But #7 is a little high.
by parlin on May 3, 2010 6:59 PM CDT reply actions
“less Whittier,” that is.
(that whole Nixon thing you’ve got going)
by parlin on May 3, 2010 7:16 PM CDT reply actions
I can’t wait to see what new soul crushing way we’ll find to beat Nebraska this year. I’m laying odds it involves a tipped pass, a lateral, and a bad ref call in the last seconds of the game.
by bob on May 3, 2010 7:24 PM CDT reply actions
Very well said on Boise’s schedule. Their schedule is CLEARLY easier. 3 top 25 teams & 8 top 100 teams is MUCH easier than 3 top 25 teams, 5 top 50 teams and 2 top 75 teams. (as a random example)
by Donny Boudreaux on May 3, 2010 8:19 PM CDT reply actions
Tech, essentially at home, will beat Boise State. If Boise struggled to move the ball…like, at all…against TCU, they are doing nothing against VT. It will be an ugly game, to say the least. And the winner will probably move up to 2 or 3 with a ton of undeserved hype.
by Blake Borron on May 3, 2010 8:26 PM CDT reply actions
Alabama- Concur. McElroy is serviceable at best. They also play a brutal schedule. Penn St. in week 2 is interesting. Potential struggles vs. LSU , Arkansas, Auburn and Florida.
Boise State- Agree 100% on the 2 game sked. Total BS.
Ohio State- Have yet to see Pryor play a game where he appeared to actually care what was happening. No buy in until I see that change. The VY comparisons make me want to puke. No game show.
Texas- Winner of the Shootout always has a puncher’s chance. Road games in Lubbock & Lincoln are highly interesting.
VT- Much to the chagrin of my brother-in-law the Deer Hunter, I can’t bet on VT with Stinespring calling the plays. Tyrod also remains suspect. Regardless I like them over Boise then they drop one in the GT, UNC, Miami stretch in Nov.
Nebraksa- Knocking on the door but not quite ready for prime time. Agree completely on Cody Green. Put him out there.
Florida- Always dangerous. Most talented roster in the nation + Urban is a nasty combo.
Wisconsin- Schlabach is out to lunch. I’m with you on Iowa, I like their chances much better.
Oregon- I think they dip to 3-4 losses.
Other wildcards:
Notre Dame- Kelly attitude adjustment & new system but probably not enough experience in the 2 deep. Sked has a lot of teams that project to be 8-4 types. Utah & USC in Nov make or break it.
The ACC- UNC quitely getting decent, don’t count out GT, and Miami could be pseudo dangerous if they show up. Probably another 1-2 loss conference champ.
Big Ten- Still not on board.
Big 12- Tech with Tubs, Ded says 9 Ws. I buy it.
Big East- The Stache wins it with 2 Ls.
Pac 10- USC is a wildcard with a still freakishly talented roster + Kiff = God knows what. Stanford, Washington & UCLA are all also interesting. I like a 3 loss Pac 10 champ.
Thanks you just got me all fired up. Good talk.
by Whiskey on May 3, 2010 9:14 PM CDT reply actions
Bleh.
In both cases on non-BCS teams (BSU and TCU) you disregard talent level and complains about Strength of Schedule. Gee, where have I heard that before?
I’m not saying Boise’s SOS isn’t weak. Too bad for us, we can’t do much about that. We can even schedule 4 tough opponents and then get flack for having an easy 8-game conference walk to the end of the season.
In the end, it’s about the opportunity — something that the BCS doesn’t offer. Fans here in Boise aren’t talking about us in the title game; frankly, because we doubt it will happen. No surprise when a 1-loss BCS team or two jumps us mid-late November. We’ve been blessed by the BCS in some regards, but we’ve also been left out (2004, 2008) and given a tiny piece of the money pie (2006, 2009) that other under-performing BCS schools receive (for not even attending a bowl game).
Sad to say, even if Boise gets into a "national title" game, I’m still not sure I’d call it that. They let us in, yay — but wait… does this get them off the hook for all the other teams they’ve left out, including BCS teams (USC, U Miami, Wisconsin, Auburn, Texas…)? Somebody compared Boise to the Ok. City Thunder. We perform well in the regular season and have some great players, but don’t belong in the post-season. Maybe that’s true. All we’re asking for is the chance. If we lose in the playoff, then you’re absolutely right. But until then, get a playoff and get off your SOS horse.
by LoqueID on May 3, 2010 10:37 PM CDT reply actions
I went to A&M muster in Dallas and R.C. was the guest speaker. Seems to think the 3-4 defense is really going to make a difference. I think he was just playing up the audience, who came to mourn the death of loved ones, not the death of the wrecking crew, but nevertheless atm football was the subject of 80% of his speech. I pick them fourth in the conference after the usual suspects. They get their haley’s comet win over tech this year.
by Nero on May 3, 2010 10:42 PM CDT reply actions
Math note.
If you have a 90% chance of winning one game and a 90% chance of winning the next game; you have a 90% chance of winning both game. If Texas goes through a 10-game, 90% winning chance of winning their games, they don’t have 0% of winning their games. You do not add percentages. Take batting averages, if you need another example.
I just say this to help you on your next pre-Algebra exam.
by LoqueID on May 3, 2010 10:49 PM CDT reply actions
less wittier? minor new england poet? circa 1965, right?
‘two rogues divulged in a yellow woody.’
‘i have muttered out my life in coughing swoons.’
‘chiefly, if i can, of ashcans in khaki pants, give a dog a bone.’
great stuff.
by lowell massey on May 3, 2010 10:55 PM CDT reply actions
You obviously haven’t seen enough of Cody Green (e.g., the Baylor-Nebraska game last year). Suffice it to say that I think he will never be an effective QB, and we’d be much better off trying our luck with Taylor Martinez and the veer.
I do agree that whatever Pelini says, our defense is going to drop off some without Suh, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised and it is not outrageous to hope for 10 wins if Lee can improve just a tiny bit against quality competition. The game @Washington will define our season.
by Ojnab Bob on May 3, 2010 11:01 PM CDT reply actions
I think Ohio State is in the driver’s seat this season. I don’t see any SEC teams coming out of their conference schedule without at least 2 losses. Alabama looks like the best returning team in the SEC, but their schedule is brutal.
LoqueID,
He didn’t add the percentages, he multiplied them. 90% X 90% would be an 81% chance you win both. Plus it’s not algebra. It’s arithmetic.
by UTomlinson on May 4, 2010 12:51 AM CDT reply actions
Early on, I’ve got us down for 3 losses – most likely Tech at Lubbock, Nebraska at Lincoln, and one of OU, A&M or the bowl game. I don’t see us in the B12 champ game.
by CrazyJoeDavola on May 4, 2010 12:59 AM CDT reply actions
Addendum: I see our defense as slightly worse than anticipated, and the O slightly better.
by CrazyJoeDavola on May 4, 2010 1:01 AM CDT reply actions
People like LoqueID are the reason why state lotteries can pay for our public schools. And, in turn, our public schools are the reason why people like LoqueID don’t understand probabilities.
It’s a vicious cycle.
by longhornmatt on May 4, 2010 1:17 AM CDT reply actions
Um.. LoqueID… little math advice – when you are calculating the probability that successive events will all occur (ie wins), it’s multiplicative, not additive.
Um.. LoqueID… little math advice – when you are calculating the probability that successive events will all occur (ie wins), it’s multiplicative, not additive.If you went to UT, I’m seriously\ going to have to stop sending my alum donations back to Texas and write President Powers a nasty letter on the deteriorating quality of a UT education…
Um.. LoqueID… little math advice – when you are calculating the probability that successive events will all occur (ie wins), it’s multiplicative, not additive.If you went to UT, I’m seriously\ going to have to stop sending my alum donations back to Texas and write President Powers a nasty letter on the deteriorating quality of a UT education…Scipio Tex: Love the blog man. Being stuck out at UCLA, it’s hard to get decent talk on the Horns. You’re definately keeping me afloat until I can finish residency and get back to the land of queso and Mexican martinis…
by Dr. UCLA-Horn on May 4, 2010 2:29 AM CDT reply actions
LoqueID
81% to win both
18% to win one
1% to lose both
write a letter to your school telling them you want your money back.
by Fried Rice on May 4, 2010 3:37 AM CDT reply actions
Wow … come to the blog to read opinions on the Horns … and a math lesson breaks out. What a great learning experience!
by VirginiaLonghorn on May 4, 2010 5:58 AM CDT reply actions
Sailor Ripley, you evil genius you. Posting BC links on Bronco Fan Networks to lure math deficient smurfs.
by 98 on May 4, 2010 6:07 AM CDT reply actions
LoqueID also does not understand the most important math: teams with tiny stadiums they cannot sell out for more than one game a year are teams with no tv market and therefore have no qualifications for an opportunity.
by Bill Bixby on May 4, 2010 6:26 AM CDT reply actions
Wow. LoquelD was shouted down here so quickly and by so many that it was almost Orangebloodian in its fervor.
Scip, I tend to agree with you regarding first year starting QBs and all but I also don’t think of Gilbert as a typical 1st year starter. I also don’t believe in Nebraska’s offense and I think we will better equipped this year with the changes to better face their defense. All in all I see our season coming down to Dallas in determining whether we go to the Big XXII title game undefeated or with 1 loss. I know what OU lost from last year, but not enough about what is replacing them to form an intelligent opinion about that game yet.
by t1climb1 on May 4, 2010 7:21 AM CDT reply actions
How many licks does it take to get to the center of a viscous circle?
by Wise Owl on May 4, 2010 7:26 AM CDT reply actions
This non-linear discussion has lead to a meaningless point. Flee before you’re boxed in a raucous rhombus.
by Wise Owl on May 4, 2010 7:30 AM CDT reply actions
I believe one SEC team will rise above the rest, overcome one conference loss and back into the national title game. My money is on Florida due to ’Bama’s schedule. In the past I would have bet the voters would have found a way to exclude BSU, or any “mid-major,” but I believe the sentiment is in the other direction. They may view Boise’s inclusion in a title matchup with Florida as the answer to the accusations the BCS isn’t fair to mid-majors such as BSU, TCU, et al.
by il_cativo on May 4, 2010 8:07 AM CDT reply actions
No OU? Bob says this is the best defense he’s ever had. Wilson says this is the best offensive line of all-time. Blah blah blah……
I guess the Wiscy love is off their manhandling of Miami in their bowl game. They really did beat the Canes up in that game. Without looking I’m guessing they return their QB and RB and that is what most people look at when making their top tens. O-line, d-line? Who cares, they are returning their QB and RB!!!!!!!
by Bartoncreek on May 4, 2010 8:11 AM CDT reply actions
The Wisconsin love is pretty simple:
- 10 wins last year
- 18 starters back (read that somewhere. May not actually be true)
- Solid track record of success in conference
I don’t think Wisconsin is one of the 10 best teams in the country, but I like their chances of ending up in the Top Ten based on how the polls work.
by WhoooTex on May 4, 2010 8:11 AM CDT reply actions
Notre Dame will be very interesting to watch. Kelly will have the offense humming, but I have yet to see any substantive evidence that he can do something with the defense. Maybe he will, and they will be ranked in the top 15 again (shudder), but my gut says they struggle on defense like last year. As I said, interesting to watch.
I’m also very intrigued by the Michigan v. Uconn game early on. In a hundred years, Michigan fans would have never guessed that in season 3 under RichRod they would have a make or break game…..in week one…….against Ucon. They follow that game up with a game against the aforementioned Fighting Kellys. 0-2 in Ann Arbor could easily happen, which equals trouble.
As for your thoughts Scip, I mostly agree. The problem isn’t finding flaws with the teams listed, it’s finding other teams who should be ranked ahead of them. For now, it’s as good as any other top 10 created 4 months before kickoff.
by lazer2280 on May 4, 2010 8:42 AM CDT reply actions
Well Owl, if the circle is “viscous” then it will be very easy to get to its center, albeit a little sticky in the process.
by Toadvine on May 4, 2010 9:20 AM CDT reply actions
If that’s the top ten, then this is a down year for college football.
Boise State, Ohio State (with Pryor and Tressel at the helm), Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Oregon…
I have no confidence in any of those teams.
by Orangeblood79 on May 4, 2010 9:24 AM CDT reply actions
Between McElroy media-love & non-BCS school hype, this is shaping up to be an annoying season.
My early thought is that this is possibly a year where there are an inordinate amount of 1 & 2 loss teams. There is also an interesting group of teams, led by experienced quarterbacks that are poised to take advantage of such parity….
ACC
T. Taylor @ VaTech
J. Nesbitt @ GaTech
J. Harris @ Miami
Pac 10
J. Locker @ Washington
A. Luck @ Stanford
M. Barkley @ USC
SEC
R. Mallett @ Arkansas
J. Jefferson @ LSU
Big 10
T. Pryor @ Ohio State
Looming logjams (see above) in the ACC & Pac 10 do nothing other than convince me that this is likely going to be a tumultuous season for the BCS where a BSU or TCU could be included in the title game by default.
by Matt Cotcher on May 4, 2010 9:49 AM CDT reply actions
Cotcher -
And Ricky Stanzi too. I like your theory. When it is a wide open race, go with the best driver. Just look at Calvin Borel winning a wide open derby this year. I don’t take much stock in strength of schedule (on the weak side) because a shaky team will find a way to lose no matter how bad the opponent.
The other big variable I look at is “who knows how to win?” Texas and Boise State know how to win. Ohio State knows how to win. They aren’t necessarily the best team every week, but at the end of the year these teams always have a fat “w” column. This is in contrast to a team like the Houston Texans (NFL, I know) who are pretty salty but lose lots of games late because they haven’t figured out how to win. Virginia Tech is sort of like this.
by Nero on May 4, 2010 10:32 AM CDT reply actions
Boise State’s schedule will be soft until they are invited to a conference with more meat than bread, no doubt. Assuming they are weak because their opponents are, is equally as ignorant as bad math is.
The real reason behind why Boiseans only sellout Bronco Stadium 2-3 times a year is the same reason you’re complaining about. Why attend a game against New Mexico State when you already know its going to be a bloodbath? So they get up for games like Oregon or Oregon State, occasionally even Fresno or Nevada.
The problem is, they can only seem to get Oregon or Oregon State to visit lil’ Bronco Stadium. Nobody else seems to want anything to do with coming to Boise. You can blame it on lotteries, the blue turf, the out of the way location, and small stadium all you want. I’ll bet your Coaches and AD’s are looking at that 55 home game regular season win streak with a healthy fear. Boise State has an open away date in the 2011 season. They are holding out for a TOP 10 opponent. No dice.
One game, your house, no takers? Seems odd?
By the way, even if Boise State has a 95% chance against each conference opponent (8) they play, they still have only a 66% of beating them all. Couple that with say a 50/50 shot to win their four OOC games and they only have a .04% chance of going undefeated.
I guess winning all those games is actually harder than it looks.
by Buster on May 4, 2010 10:41 AM CDT reply actions
Fuck Math, that’s why I majored in Poli Sci: why balance the books when you can just issue more bonds?
Boise St. May be annoying, but it’s resonable to list them as a two given the schedule and the lack of an obvious Juaggernaut nxt year.
by bateshorn on May 4, 2010 11:07 AM CDT reply actions
It’s not as bad. He just didn’t carry the decimal over.
by UTomlinson on May 4, 2010 11:08 AM CDT reply actions
Fried Rice,
Wait wait, let me guess….. his decimal is in the wrong place? It’s a 4% chance!
by Nero on May 4, 2010 11:11 AM CDT reply actions
That Star Flight helicopter you hear is airlifting Huckleberry to a cardiac ward.
by parlin on May 4, 2010 12:01 PM CDT reply actions
We have Huckleberry locked away in a secure cave working on a whole new thing. Basically, Huck can tell you who will win every college football game in the future. We think this could be big.
by Sailor Ripley on May 4, 2010 12:18 PM CDT reply actions
LoqueID…you are the Joker to Huck’s Batman.
Or maybe the Elin to Tiger’s…………
nevermind.
by Orangeblood79 on May 4, 2010 12:22 PM CDT reply actions
I suppose I could say that it was wrong on purpose, but it wasn’t. Either way you got the point.
But hey, if this is the best way you’ve found to discount Boise State Football, I don’t want to take that from you.
But pointing out internet typos is lost on me…
It’s like winning the 400m in the Special Olympics. Sure you won, but you’re still a fucking retard.
by Buster on May 4, 2010 12:34 PM CDT reply actions
can someone please explain how to calculate slugging %? It’s been perplexing me for years.
by sa on May 4, 2010 1:02 PM CDT reply actions
I laughed. I moved on. Scrolled back up and lauged again. Loudly. Good job parlin.
by 06_UT on May 4, 2010 1:04 PM CDT reply actions
Spot on with the Boise analysis. Too bad the media can’t get such a basic concept through their thick skulls.
This is not the same thing as saying it’s Boise State’s fault they have a bad schedule or they’re a bad team. It also doesn’t mean it’s easy to go undefeated even then, because going undefeated always has some degree of difficulty. However, given our current system, the voters SHOULD be looking at the totality of each team’s resume and not focus emotionally on the fact that Boise is an underdog or that they had a couple of tough games. And if they do that, it’s hard for me to see the logic of putting Boise State over a 1 loss team in, say, the SEC. Unfair? Yes. But given the system, that’s what should happen.
by TheElusiveShadow on May 4, 2010 1:07 PM CDT reply actions
by 06_UT on May 4, 2010 1:08 PM CDT reply actions
Two things.
1.) 01001111 01110101 01110010 00100000 01110010 01100101 01100001 01100100 01100101 01110010 01110011 00100111 00100000 01101101 01100001 01110100 01101000 00100000 01110011 01101011 01101001 01101100 01101100 01110011 00100000 01101101 01100001 01101011 01100101 00100000 01101101 01100101 00100000 01110011 01100001 01100100 00101110
2.) If you’re only giving Boise State a 50/50 shot to beat Wyoming or Toledo, I’d say that’s all the explanation you need to keep them out of a national championship game.
by Huckleberry on May 4, 2010 1:25 PM CDT reply actions
parlin -
I want it on the record that Claremont sent me recruiting letters. They know how to identify both mediocre high school football players and paranoid megalomaniacal politicians equally well. Thank you for the NU roster knowledge – I had no idea that Green was that impotent a passer.
by Scipio Tex on May 4, 2010 1:29 PM CDT reply actions
Smurf enthusiasts -
Aside from reminding us all of the innumeracy that famously plagues the Gem State, I do think you bring up a valid point. That is – Boise’s schedule is indeed no reflection on Boise’s quality. If the New Orleans Saints played San Jose State every week, winning 121-0 and sending all of the Spartan players to the hospital, the schedule is no judgement on the absolute quality of their team. It’s not their fault who they play.
However, college football fans have eyes, analytical brains, and the ability to gauge context, irrespective of schedule. We can see that Kyle Wilson is fantastic even if he’s lined up against a woman’s field hockey team as it’s equally apparent that Kellen Moore has a weak arm, is 5-11, and should be working a paper route. But when you get five seconds in the pocket after play action and lots of little gridiron gym rats running around open because Petersen is a genius and the Idaho Vandals don’t have anything more sophisticated in their defensive cookbook than Cover 2 and a secondary manned by JUCO rejects, it’s fairly easy to make useful subjective judgements.
I don’t rely on schedule to gauge Boise’s talent – I watch Boise itself. I use schedule to critique Boise’s resume. Capisce?
by Scipio Tex on May 4, 2010 1:48 PM CDT reply actions
Schlabach is already parroting the Bama media guide …
Greg McElroy is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.
by spider on May 4, 2010 1:49 PM CDT reply actions
“I use schedule to critique Boise’s resume. Capisce?”
You know I don’t speak Spanish.
If, and I mean IF in gigantic big ass black font, we actually upgrade our line and develop a real live run game, then there is no reason at all we can’t win all our games and play Boise St. for the national championship. Give Gilbert a run game and some time to run that play action and we’ll be hell on wheels.
by nordberg on May 4, 2010 2:44 PM CDT reply actions
Our math skills make me sad, too.
01000010 01110101 01110100 00101110 00101110 00101110 01110100 01101000 01100101 01101001 01110010 00100000 01100011 01101111 01101101 01101101 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01000101 01101110 01100111 01101100 01101001 01110011 01101000 00100000 01101100 01100001 01101110 01100111 01110101 01100001 01100111 01100101 00100000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01100101 01110110 01100101 01101110 00100000 01110111 01101111 01110010 01110011 01100101 00101110
by uthookem on May 4, 2010 2:50 PM CDT reply actions
01010111 01100001 01110100 01100011 01101000 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 00100000 01100001 01101100 01101100 00100000 01101101 01110101 01100100 01100100 01101100 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101000 01110010 01101111 01110101 01100111 01101000 00100000 01000101 01101110 01100111 01101100 01101001 01110011 01101000 00100000 01000001 01001110 01000100 00100000 01000010 01101001 01101110 01100001 01110010 01111001 00100000 01100010 01110010 01100101 01100001 01101011 01110011 00100000 01101101 01111001 00100000 01110010 01101111 01100010 01101111 01101000 01100101 01100001 01110010 01110100 00101110
by Robot Steve on May 4, 2010 3:15 PM CDT reply actions
Proliferate Moxie is actually the name of my garage band.
by bizzle on May 4, 2010 3:19 PM CDT reply actions
06_UT
Considering you just posted a Hamiltonian equation on this site explaining how slugging percentage is calculated, i’d say you’re way off…
Now using that Hamiltonian operator, you could give a damn close prediction where the electrons are located at that exact second where the ball hits the bat…however, quantum mechanics do not explain where the ball will land to give a correct slugging percentage.
Please take a basic statistics course…and stick to the simple math you can follow.
Slugging % is calculated by the following ((single)2(double)3(triple)+4(home run))/(atbats)…i.e. very simple math that even pre-algebra people can do. However, since most fans can not follow simple statistics, it shames me to say that most fans are overspoken morons, who should not be allowed to have a say EVER (and I say this for my own team fans)
Now with that said, while quantum mechanics have not been completely proven, and electrons can never be “found,” i’d say BCS computer calculations are about as complex and a fair system will never be found for football unless a playoff is implemented. My opinion will stay even if my BSU Broncos go to the NC game next year.
Sincerely,
A Ph.D. student and recent graduate from Boise State University
by greekpadre on May 4, 2010 3:32 PM CDT reply actions
Haha…
Ok, I got smoked. Bad news is, I’m studying nuclear engineering. You all best hope I don’t make the grade (as is apparent by my mad maths sckillz). Thank you for calling me out and I apologize for lashing out in such a retarded function.
Scipio, thank you for the response to my initial point. I do indeed think resume is important — I just wish it was important to everyone. In the end, computer SOS will bump qualified teams voted higher in the human polls. Do I think there’s a better way? Probably not (in regards to the BCS). There are flaws in using human subjectivity and computer precision, and every time I try to “out-think” the BCS formula, I end up being rather humbled by it’s complexity.
But I think that subjectivity created by humans should be left for the teams performance and ability, not by who they’re lined up against. Any SOS argument should be left to the computers and them alone. I was just surprised that for every team you analyzed, they were given your respect on player and position analysis, except for the non-BCS teams.
I am a Boise State fan, but a college football fan very next (and mathlete very last). Maybe Boise goes to the title game, maybe not. I’m more disappointed at the “equal opportunity” being passed up for ALL teams, both BCS and non-BCS every year.
by LoqueID on May 4, 2010 3:32 PM CDT reply actions
Scipio-
I get it. I really do. Keep in mind the resume your looking at is in part, the result of the avoidance of other Major Conference schools avoiding playing the Broncos.
Tom Osborne was particularly upfront about it here;
http://www.obnug.com/2009/11/13/1156102/tom-osbornes-response
Even the MWC had the opportunity to bring in Boise State in 2005 along with TCU. They opted for a nine school conference instead of ten. Who knows what could’ve been?
Boise State’s resume is what it is. Even with that being said, 112-17 since 2000 is damn impressive. Only two losses are at home in the last ten years.
by Buster on May 4, 2010 3:45 PM CDT reply actions
Greek,
They obviously don’t teach you a fucking thing there at BSU if you don’t know how to connect quntum mechanics with the macro level and use the Hamiltonian operator to predict where a baseball will land.
Is your school even accredited?
by 06_UT on May 4, 2010 3:46 PM CDT reply actions
LoqueID -
Ok, I got smoked. Bad news is, I’m studying nuclear engineering. You all best hope I don’t make the grade (as is apparent by my mad maths sckillz). Thank you for calling me out and I apologize for lashing out in such a retarded function.
No worries. Thanks for the good attitude.
Now, I need you to do something for me that’s very important. Five years from now, when you’re sliding the reactor rods into place at the nuclear power facility, I want you to come on Barking Carnival and let us confirm your calculations. No reason, really! We just want…to be sure.

by Scipio Tex on May 4, 2010 3:53 PM CDT reply actions
Excuse me? For a physical chemist we use quantum on a microscale…nothing to do with macro.
Now if you would like to go there, yeah, I’ll agree with you that you would be able to predict where the ball would go. I just figured you were another dumbass of a fan who just pulled an equation off the image site to look clever.
I apologize.
by greekpadre on May 4, 2010 3:55 PM CDT reply actions
This thread is the tangible illustration of 350 points of SAT score on school admissions.
It’s like me going on a Harvard site and talking shit to the Asperger’s kids.
by Scipio Tex on May 4, 2010 4:03 PM CDT reply actions
Lot of contrition today. Maybe they’re putting extra flouride in the water now.
by fitzhume on May 4, 2010 4:06 PM CDT reply actions
I’m really sorry about the stuff I said about the rest of the you all. And blowing that ship in half was wrong too.
I do have concerns about my Purity Of Essence.
Peace on Earth, ya’ll.
by Kim Jong-il on May 4, 2010 4:23 PM CDT reply actions
My security friends at Intelius and People Search are in a spin right now. hA!
by don't mind me on May 4, 2010 4:41 PM CDT reply actions
.— .. . – …. .. …. . ... .-.. ?? …. .. …. …. .. …. -. -- – -.-. …. .- !
by j.r.69 on May 4, 2010 5:05 PM CDT reply actions
Thayer Evans is deep green with envy!
Huck: 01000011 01101000 01100001 01101100 01101011 00100000 01101001 01110100 00100000 01110101 01110000 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01110111 01101111 01101110 01100100 01100101 01110010 01100110 01110101 01101100 00100000 01110000 01110101 01100010 01101100 01101001 01100011 00100000 01100101 01100100 01110101 01100011 01100001 01110100 01101001 01101111 01101110 00100000 01110011 01111001 01110011 01110100 01100101 01101101 00100000 01110111 01100101 00100000 01101000 01100001 01110110 01100101 00100000 01101001 01101110 00100000 01110100 01101000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01100011 01101111 01110101 01101110 01110100 01110010 01111001 00100001
uthookem: see above
by dasmithjones on May 4, 2010 5:12 PM CDT reply actions
Spenceparksoapbox is currently down and that j.r.69 post is haywire. Enough of the binary fellas.
Sailor thanks you.
by magnusbleuveigner on May 4, 2010 5:15 PM CDT reply actions
Yeah, guys, at least break up the binary with a space between each binary “character.” At the very least.
by Huckleberry on May 4, 2010 7:53 PM CDT reply actions
Hey, I love Boise State. I put good money on them everytime they start their weak ass conference schedule. Boise State minus 30 over San Who What State? Awesome, I’m in! Boise minus 40 over Mountain Shit Creek Universe? Dude, give me a cool dime! Hell, I’ve gone weeks living off the over bets I’ve put on Boise State games.
P.S. Having said the above, Boise’s blue turf still makes me vomit in my mouth everytime I see it on TV.
by yojimbox on May 5, 2010 1:49 AM CDT reply actions
There’s no point in playing Boise. If you beat them, nobody cares. If you lose to them, you’ll never live it down. They make their bones playing one real game every few years and whining about respect. It’s a great little racket. They should be content with their lot.
And their colors suck, their stadium is small, and the blue turf was old before the last century ended. Even the mention of Boise State, hell Boise anything, fills me with inertia. Their carb-heavy economy has probably killed more Americans through complications of obesity than al Qaeda could with a dreamliner loaded with semtex and bad cheese. If the Broncos were Arabs, we would have bombed them by now. Or at least invaded Ontario.
Let them know peace, therefore.
by spider on May 5, 2010 12:51 PM CDT reply actions
We are clearly in the miserable hell that constitutes the endless months between the Final Four and the start of fall football. Instead of making fun of our way-too-high preseason ranking, our peachfuzzed qb with the quirky throwing motion, and our parasol-waving offensive line, we get math smack? Boise State arguments?
Next we will be reading about World Cup Soccer, whatever that is. Dear Lord…
by ransomstoddard on May 5, 2010 8:36 PM CDT reply actions
hey,
there’s a big difference between not understanding how SLG % is calculated and being too lazy to take the 20 seconds to do a google search and look it up.
you boise people are all the same…taking borderline witty internet banter way too seriously.
by sa on May 6, 2010 7:35 AM CDT reply actions
Next we will be reading about World Cup Soccer
Damn straight. And like everything else on this site, you will read it and like it and resume your suffering ways.
Whatever that is …
Oh, silly ransom. “What is this strange game played on grass with two nets and armies of short people fighting over a ball? How annoyingly primitive and boring! WHERE IS MY ACTION? I WAS PROMISED ENTERTAINMENT AND NONSTOP SCORING!!”
Dear Lord…
The Lord would tell you that soccer is the most popular sport in the world by a good margin, played in every nation, adored by billions. Except, of cource, by anthropomorphic Americans with attachments to their American sports watched on their American couches at a safe distance from non-Americans.
Like HenryJames, and his retarded cousin, ransomstoddard.
by Vasherized on May 6, 2010 10:19 AM CDT reply actions
Ohio State at #3?
Dunno. I’d argue that they have two tough road games, at Iowa and at Wisconsin. Even if Wisky isn’t top ten, a night game at Camp Randall is no gimme. Call each game 50% chance of winning (and you all can apply the appropriate algorithm). Plus every time Pryor throws the ball more than 10 yards, all of Buckeye Nation cringes. Maybe it is a good throw and maybe it isn’t. Sort of like a cat in a box. And while the OSU defensive line might be okay, the secondary has a lot of uncertainty associated with it.
by dtensor on May 6, 2010 1:47 PM CDT reply actions
LOL
haha LoquelD got owned. and its real scary your major is nuc-u-ler engineering.
and greek padre makes it evident that a sense of humor doesn’t exist in the spud state.
and i hate to agree with these smurfers, but Boise does have a very good shot at goin to the natl championship. and even winning.
reasoning: my prediction for the NC is Boise State vs Ohio State. Why? they are both solid teams playing very doable schedules, and no one else looks to go unbeatable besides these 2. Bama loses too much, and its way too hard to repeat in the SEC. also, their last 6 opponents all have byes before they play bama. thats bad news.
so, i predict the Boise will march thru their schedule, and the buckeyes will receive no resistance.
If boise and ohio state meets, boise wins. last year was the first time ohio state won a bowl in years, and they stink in bowls almost as bad as those bastards north of the red. Boise comes to play in bowls, and is way better coached than osu.
thats my hypothesis. kinda scary.
by PVogel on May 6, 2010 2:05 PM CDT reply actions
Wisconsin does have John Clay, who is probably the best player in the Big Ten. Iowa last year survived quite a few close games.
by BRD on May 7, 2010 5:50 AM CDT reply actions
i think we rack up a lot of points on everybody we play. i think we go undefeated. we don’t lose a game until sometime 2016, 2017, if we ever lose again. same goes for baseball.
by drankthewine on May 7, 2010 10:43 AM CDT reply actions
I know this is a concept alien to Texas fans, but Greg McElroy was playing through an injury in the NCG. I’m not arguing that he is consistent by any means, but if you take off your burnt orange goggles and watch the first 3 quarters of the SECCG, you can’t deny when he’s good, he’s damn good. Fortunately, when he’s not, he can turn to the best running back duo in college football to save his ass. If/when Alabama loses this year (and even my homerism can’t let me deny that it’s probably “when”), it won’t be because of McElroy, but because of the secondary.
by James on May 7, 2010 2:06 PM CDT reply actions
Alabama aint no daisy, Bama aint no daisy at all.
Without that defense I don’t see them getting back to the Championship. Check the schedule, every single one of these teams is coming off a bye week before their game with Alabama.
10/02 Florida
10/09 @ South Carolina
10/16 Mississippi
10/23 @ Tennessee
11/06 @ LSU
11/13 Mississippi State
11/26 Auburn
I think they lose 2 of these and I don’t think they are going to be able to keep up with Mallett and the Hogs either.
by The Republic on May 7, 2010 6:04 PM CDT reply actions
damn, y’all seem like some smart dudes what w/ allt he math and science related comments. but one thing i dont comprehend is how and why you would make this post where you claim that pretty much everyone in this top 10 list sucks and wont finish there, but you dont offer any ideas on who you think will finish in the top 10. based on your team by team breakdown, it would seem that you feel a 2 loss texas team will be the best in the land.
and also, great job talkin trash about mcelroy, kid played with broken ribs and WON the national title game, coly mccoy hurt his funny bone and decided to sit the game out. i know which QB i’d rather have.
by tempebamafan on May 7, 2010 6:33 PM CDT reply actions
This post proves that the half of all bloggers have below average intelligence. The other half are all in the 3rd quintile.
by Bill Bixby on May 10, 2010 10:42 AM CDT reply actions
I want to thank you bamafan for correcting all of our southern ignorance with your witty comments. We all stand corrected for our lack of bama pride.
by tempesucksbigone on May 10, 2010 12:13 PM CDT reply actions
Random Observations:
Top 10 will be the usual suspects. Always is.
Boise State has temporarily entered the domain of the usual suspects. They get to stay there until Florida State resumes their rightful spot. There’s only so much space.
The lottery pays 1 winner, 250 lottery managers, and nothing else. My kid’s elementary school raised more money with a bake sale than they got from Powerball last year.
If Jay Barker can ride 4 1st round picks on his defense to 5th place in a Heisman ballot, why not McElroy? I just love watching QBs who make a team’s most ardent fans go, “Oh shit,” when they hold the ball for more than 2.5 seconds getting so much attention from the press. It’s like the collision of parallel universes. Now I guess someone gets to correct me on current parallel universe theory.
Love the blog. It’s nice to find something to read on the Internet written above an 8th grade level. Now, back to work.
by dave on May 11, 2010 10:30 AM CDT reply actions
I guess I’m moderately surprised by the overwhelming consensus regarding Nebraska. Granted, they looked impressive by the end of last season. But nobody knows the impact of Suh’s loss, and that offense lacks playmakers, and whose to say Pelini isn’t going to keep pulling a Buddy Ryan. They have to go to College Station and Stillwater, on top of hosting you guys. I would definitely take them over us (Mizzou), but I don’t think their success is as blindingly obvious as most seem to.
Plus, they will be dreaming of future dominance of the Big 16 West by that point….
by Gene Claude on May 11, 2010 1:39 PM CDT reply actions
TCU’s defense will be just fine. They finished #1 in total defense in 2008 and everyone thought they would drop off in 2009 because they lost 7 defensive starters (3 to the draft). What did they do? They finished #1 in the nation again. In 2010, TCU is only losing 4 starters on defense (2 to the draft), and my guess is they’ll be top 10 in total defense again.
Trivia Question: Which three teams have finished #1 in total defense the most in CFB history?
Answer: TCU, Alabama, and Auburn (all with 4).
All four of TCU’s #1 finishes have occurred in the last 10 years, I think Patterson will have them ready on D.
by John on May 12, 2010 1:09 PM CDT reply actions
I am continually browsing online for tips that can benefit me. Thanks!
by Binita Saxena on May 31, 2011 7:08 PM CDT reply actions

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