Big 10 Expansion: Easy Does It

The PAC10 is hot for a TV-scheduling-etc. alliance with the Big 12, but cooling to the idea of expansion itself. That according to a reporter from some PAC10 Web site who spoke to the commissioner today and then relayed that conversation across the radio airwaves.

Now that Big 10 expansion is on the back burner for the foreseeable future, let’s lobby the Big 12 conference to add more time on the clock at the end of the coming Texas-Nebraska title games. One second was cutting it a little close, guys!

If I wasted my mad cartogrammin’ skills and no one even gets invited to shift around I’m gonna be peesed.

Are you kidding? Your mad cartogrammin’ skills can be tested out for at least the next three months. Gotta have something to fill up the off-season.

This slow play is really interesting. What we basically are watching is a high-stakes hand of Texas Hold E’m with everyone sitting at the table trying to get a “read” on everyone else.

Doesn’t that statement basically mean, “who we really want is Texas (and A&M if required),” and our bluff (leak to KS radio station) didn’t work?

I expect Mizzou to be in the Big Ten at some point. But all these rumors of NU, Rutgers etc. are just a way to get UT to show its hand, and DeLoss is too smart for that. Our public message will be “The Big XII is great” until it’s not. In DD I trust.

I’m thinking it’s not Texas but Notre Dame that is the key here. If ND says wait until Nov they wait until Nov. The Big 10 at 12 teams makes far more sense for everyone than the Big 10 adding 3 middle tier teams to share the money with. Of course they’d take Texas if UT was willing to take them but I don’t see that happening either.

I keep hearing that Texas will not join this conference or that conference because of unspecified “travel costs”

Bored as I am during the off season, I thought I would add up the rosters of the women’s sports at Texas (including coaches) and multiply that by 1/2 the regular season games or contests to try to get a rough idea of how much travel costs may actually increase because of flights to far off destinations.

I assumed a wild assed guess that a flight would cost 1000 dollars more per individual than travel to a current Big 12 institution. (Even though a better estimate might assume some travel costs would go down i.e Des Moines instead of Ames, anywhere instead of Lubbock). Right now we have approximately 226 coaches and athletes listed on the women’s sports rosters at Texas sports. These athletes attend approximately 165 regular season contests a year. I assumed half of them are on the road half at home (this is not a good true indicator because many women’s sports—tennis, golf, swimming— are tournament driven and its not clear that joining another conference would significantly change the tournaments they attend—Texas will continue to attend the Penn relays for example) but this is a WAG anyway so what the hell.

Even so, I come up with approximately 1.7 million in increased women’s travel costs. Bump the number to 2 million to include the travel costs of various groupies, hangers on and sycophants.

Lets also assume that the men’s number is somewhat equal (even though we know that due to football the number of non-revenue male athletes is very low). So I get a non-revenue increase in travel costs WAG of approximately 4 million.

Every big 10 member brought in 22 million from their TV deal this year. Texas brought in 12 or 13 million? So even assuming we brought no added value to the Big 10 TV package we could still clear 6 million dollars.

Football and basketball travel costs would increase too, but given that the basketball roster is very small, and that football will make enough money to cover any costs plus some, i don’t really see the travel cost factoring into this decision much at all.

The Big Ten has basically written off ND, and there is no way in hell the Irish would join to be just the 12th team.

I get the academic fit, the CIC, and the prestige of an all-AAU conference. However I just can’t see Texas joining them unless the Pac Ten totally screws up their negotiations with us. OK, so we bring along Aggie, that is still just one pair in a sea of 14 other Midwestern/Eastern schools. Two of these things are not like the others. Then there’s the psychological factor of joining the perennial loser’s conference. OU already drags us down in that regard. VY got us out of that reputation rut Akers drove us into (10-9 and the dawgs never crossed midfield on their own, damnit!) but memories can grow short. Besides, that rat bastard Delany has always killed a playoff.

Go west, young man.

Roach: I think you are right… travel costs are not a deal killer, just a significant factor to be considered. Fans of current Big Ten schools are moaning a little about traveling to Texas, if you can believe that.

IMO, the effect on spring sports, especially baseball, probably comes closer to being a B10 killer. We already know that Garrido hates the idea. Meanwhile, you have a southwest/west corridor for them in the Pac-10.

The Pac-10 problem is the late west coast starts for basketball. This will be massaged, like I expect football will be, but it’s going to happen.

Why would Notre Dame be averse to being the 12th team? Seems to me that adding 3 more Iowas brings everyone’s dollars down not up.

Notre Dame has a number of reasons to not join the Big 10 but I’ll generalize them into two categories:

1) Monetary: They don’t have to share their NBC money as it is, and they don’t have to engage in any other revenue sharing which is a huge advantage given their immense national fanbase.

2) Historical: Many of the Big 10 schools (most notably Michigan) did everything they could to screw ND over in the past purely because they were Catholics. ND hasn’t forgotten that.

Delany is throwing pebbles at Dodds’ window with those Sunbelt references.

ND’s NBC deal only payed 9 million last year. If there is any one school that was looking at their own station, ND should be it.

“Delany is throwing pebbles at Dodds’ window with those Sunbelt references.”

Yeah, no shit. He even said something to the press like “I’m trying to give y’all hints here”. Who else could he be hinting at? It’s not like he’s going to be trying to poach Florida or Alabama or Georgia.

Bob IH:

Of course I see your point regarding spring sports, but I also think Augie and really all the non-revenue sports have limited influence. This deal will be driven by football, to a lesser extent basketball, and the Administration.

Because of the Big 10 research collaborative, I have a feeling the Admin would lean that way.

I personally am leaning to the Pac 10, and I think the late starts would be fairly easy to mitigate, it’s really just a matter of scheduling and will. But I don’t see the immediate pay off that I do in the Big 10.

From a competitive standpoint, we will be at a serious disadvantage traveling to Michigan and Wisconsin in November, which is why USC refuses to play ND in South bend late in the year.

What were the gist of Augie’s comments? Given that he coached at Illinois I’d be interested in his perspective. The Big 10 has produced some pretty good baseball teams over the years (Minny and UM for two); I’m unsure though if it’s played by all of the member schools.

The Big 10 has not written off Notre Dame — they are simply trying to buy more time to get a “read” on how good the Irish feel about their hand as an independent.

The list of potential additions to the Big 10 is a message to the Irish. “We are expanding to 16 and we will essentially gut the Big East and the Big 12 and then where will you be?”

Everyone in the Big 10 plays baseball except Wisconsin.

The last Big 10 team to make the CWS was Michigan in 1984.

Minnesota is currently leading the Big 10 and has an overall losing record.

It’s all posturing at this point. That, and like someone else mentioned, playing poker to see who blinks first. Texas and ND are the drivers in conference realignment. If the Big 10 can’t get either, they may hold off on expansion. If they can get one or both, we’ll be talking about future Big 10++ schedules around here this time next year.

What I’m wondering is where the logic is that says ND or Texas would be more likely to join if Missouri and/or Nebraska also joined? I’ve heard a lot of people say that (about ND being more likely if Missouri and Nebraska join) but don’t understand it at all. 2 more Iowas make it a less valuable move not a more valuable one.

What I’m wondering is where the logic is that says ND or Texas would be more likely to join if Missouri and/or Nebraska also joined?

It isn’t who, but how many the Big 10 takes and if they make the Big 12 and/or the Big East unlivable in doing so.

They are trying to paint a picture of future of Super Conferences where an independent – and isolated – Notre Dame would be SOL when it came to BCS power and big dollars. They are tryin to paint a picture for the Irish where scheduling would be a nightmare, where other sports besides football would flounder, and where football could survive, but it would be a helluva lot tougher to be a yearly contender for the BCS.

That’s the game of poker the Big 10 is playing.

Related info on this from Mr. College Football.

Delany is one of the most blunt and to the point men I’ve met in college athletics. He is nothing if not brutally honest. His point, I believe, is that while the media, and fans, and Congress want college football to throw all the money into a big pot, hold a playoff, sing Kumbaya, and share everything equally for their entertainment, that’s not the real world.

Thanks srr, that makes a lot more sense. It seems that raiding the big east for more than just Rutgers (Syracuse, WVU and Pitt all make more sense than NU or MU in most ways) would drive that point across better than their current trial balloons and/or the ‘sun belt’ comments.

Either way, is Notre Dame in 2010 even worth the trouble? A lot of things will need to change for them to be vying for a NC anyway.

Yes, that tactic was already tried with Notre Dame. However several reporters at the Big Ten meeting said it appears that Delany isn’t expecting ND to join. Here’s one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFKjbHvtXWo&feature=player_embedded

Sometimes no means no.

BTW, why would the collapse of BEast football force ND’s hand? They could still stay indy in football and in the BEast for all the other sports if the Bball schools remain. If the whole conference collapses then they form a Catholic league.

Even if fb independence becomes no longer an option, there will always be the ACC, SEC, or even Pac Whatever as fall back options. The Big Can’t Count Conference moving first and filling up doesn’t isolate ND. The next BCS contract could, but that’s down the road.

Over the last five years, Notre Dame has played 18 games against Big 10 teams. I wonder if the Irish could be pressured by the Big 10 dropping ND from their schedules?

apparently not. Michigan has already called that proposal “silly”:

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/12542/michigan-has-no-plans-to-stop-playing-nd

This deal will be driven by football, to a lesser extent basketball, and the Administration.

Sure, but Texas is among the handful of schools that really cares about baseball. I don’t think the administration will send the Boys of Spring to freeze in the Big Ten without making it clear that they’re getting paid handsomely for it.

The Big Can’t Count Conference moving first and filling up doesn’t isolate ND. The next BCS contract could, but that’s down the road.

No it doesn’t, but it does drive the SEC into action (and expanding to 16) and the combination of these two conferences picking off programs would gut the Big East and the Big 12.

Bob

Yeah, they care about baseball, more than say Michigan or any other Big 10 school, but not so much that they didn’t take 20 years to renovate DF.

Granted when they got around to it, they did it right, but they took their sweet time.

A cursory look at the capital improvements in the athletic department is very informative about the relative importance of baseball.

They did the NEZ (and also the Drum to a much lesser extent) because those bring in money that baseball doesn’t, and enabled them to redo the Disch. I don’t see a problem in priorities there at all.

Not that it matters, but I’m not saying baseball drives the decision. It won’t. I’m saying that it and other spring sports will suffer, relatively speaking, in the B10, and that will be a factor that would not be present if Texas went Pac-10. But the Pac-10 has scheduling problems, in terms of game starts, that the B10 doesn’t have.

The Big Ten has the CIC, but it’s not as though the Pac-10 is made up of academic lightweights. The Big Ten offers more money now, but makes Texas a bit of an orphan, both in distance and in culture. The Pac-10 has the distance issue, but probably not so much in terms of culture. Meanwhile, the SEC is always lurking… nobody really wants it, but it’s still there.

If there were a choice to be made, and it were easy, it would have been made already. The Big 12, at the time, was an easy choice. But, if others leave, leaving will be an easy choice as well.

The culture gap is an interesting thing to think about though I’m not sure it will be a factor. Austin and UT students may be closer to the Pac 10 than it is the Big 10 but Texas as a state is obviously closer to the Big 10 (or SEC). Austin is actually quite similar to Madison and Ann Arbor, fwiw. The rust belt gets a bad rap but there are some great college towns up there.

If you’re intent on bringing A&M with you (who obviously best fits culturally in the SEC), they would have the biggest culture gap imaginable to the P10.

It would certainly be a little more awkward for the Aggies but I don’t think it’s a deal killer since it’s all about the bennies.

In terms of a major Pac 10 expansion, Lawrence, Boulder and Vegas (and their students) would also fit better ‘culturally’ than any of the other programs being discussed (BYU, Utah, Tech, Baylor, New Mexico, etc).

I’m thinking more of the population and fans in general, but good points about the towns themselves.

I’m not sure the ‘average’ UT fan fits in the Pac 10 better than the SEC or B10. I’ve met a lot of UT fans that would probably not feel comfortable in Berkeley or even Austin.

If UT is seriously listening to the Big Ten and what it has to offer I wonder what is being discussed with regard to the Longhorn Sports Network.

Bob;

Not just the NEZ and the drum, it seems like they also built a track stadium, soccer stadium softball field, a football practice facility, and an indoor football facility. Baseball was way down the line.

No question baseball will suffer in the Big 10. I have a feeling the main problem would be that our conference schedule would be front loaded with home games and back loaded with away games. That could seriously hurt our chances at attracting regional tournaments and gaining momentum at the end of the year.

Given what appear to be the reasonable choices, PAC-10, Big 10, eviscerated Big 12 or SEC. I think the Big 10 is easily number 2 on the list

The Big Ten will blackmail UT into joining because Floyd Kennesaw Mountain Landis has the goods on Brian Cushworth and Lance Armstrong’s NBA bets.

Or something like that.

Syracuse…no way……………..Inside info says that it’s going to be ND,MIZZOU,RUTGERS,PITT AND NEBRASKA…….THIS INFO COMES FROM BOTH A ND AND PITT ADMINISTRATORS IN THE KNOW.

This is great information on curing a problem that affect a large number of people.