The SEC, the PAC-10, Recruiting and an Opportunity
The SEC commissioner on the SEC's willingness to expand:
Why would the SEC be interested in expansion? They aren’t hurting for money. The Big 10 applied a great business model for a conference network, and marketed the heck out of it to get their huge TV rights payments. The SEC merely put an “Open For Business” sign up to get theirs. They do not have to expand. So, why would they?
I think the answer is found in the excessive conference pride the SEC members are known for. I think that SEC pride in having the best football conference has gone from a bragging point to a foundation of their marketing strategy. They don’t fear an expanded Big 10 competitively, but they do not want to allow anybody else the boast of having the biggest and best conference. Their concern is that a super-sized Big 10 would have so much media content out there that it might eclipse the sun that is the SEC. They would rather expand than cede their current position as the unrivaled conference. Is there any more to why they might expand?
Why does Texas not want to join the SEC? The overt answer is academics, but that is just the shell of the argument. Here’s the core- at some schools, the Athletics Department reports to the university president, and the athletic mission is subordinate to the athletic mission. At others, the Athletics Department has more power than the administration, and the athletic mission is dominant. The Big 10 and PAC-10 have many more of the former type schools than the latter. The SEC has many more of the latter type schools (athletics first).
Texas is an academics first school, nevermind our recent athletic success. We have the 1980s and 1990s, with all of the losses to Baylor, Rice, and TCU, to prove our commitment to academic integrity. We shared a conference with schools that were unconstrained by recruiting ethics, and were beaten up by them. If we joined the SEC, we would be inviting that group of unrestrained recruiting machines, boosters and all, into our recruiting territory, and I believe we would start having as much luck against the SEC schools with Texan recruits as we currently have in recruiting battles in Florida.
I guess we could do well if we were using the same recruiting tactics as the other schools. That would involve having boosters pay street agents, having boosters pay players, taking care of recruits’ families, and never talking about these activities (or similar activities by rivals). Personally, I would be chagrined if we did so, but not as much as if we voluntarily and unilaterally refused to meet our (proposed) SEC rivals head on. I also have significant doubts that the university would condone UT participating in such shady recruiting. That’s why I think the best solution is to not invite the SEC into Texas in the first place. In short, my choices in order of preference are:
1. Texas be in a conference with an honest and open recruiting environment, where our natural advantages will allow us success.
2. Texas stay in our current recruiting environment where some of our rivals are a little shady, but we have enough stature to allow us to recruit very well.
3. Texas be in a conference with a shady recruiting environment, and we hold our noses and participate (again, I don’t see the Tower actually allowing this).
4. Texas be in a conference with a shady recruiting environment, and we get killed by our refusal to participate.
I think Bellmont probably shares these concerns, and that is why we are resistant to the charms of the SEC. And it does have charms. It really does play the best football in the country. However, a deep dig into “why” it has the best football reveals an opportunity for Texas.
Here is a website that stores NFL draft data for the last 23 drafts…
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/draft-history-graphic.htm?loc=interstitialskip
In that period, 6160 players were drafted. 977 (16%) of them originated (played HS ball) from Big 12 states. 985 (16%) came from Big 10 states (note- Iowa counted as Big 12 and Big 10). 890 (14%) came from the PAC-10 states. 1818 (30%) came from the SEC states! Granted, the SEC share a few states with the ACC and Big East, but still- do you see why they have the best teams? They get to recruit from the best concentration of players.
Let’s dig a little deeper. The SEC East states (Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, and South Carolina) contribute about twice as many players as the SEC West states (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas), 1194 – 624. Yet, the SEC West seems to be as competitive as the SEC East. Why?
Look at draftees from schools. The SEC schools (not states) have had 854 players drafted the last 23 years. The SEC East has had 425 drafted, and the SEC West has had 429 drafted. In other words, the disparity in regional talent has been overcome in the recruiting process.
Let’s look at the Big 12, similarly. The Big 12 South states (Texas and Oklahoma) contributed 702 players to the draft, and the Big 12 North has contributed 275. Really, it’s Texas- 624 Texas schoolboys have been drafted, compared to 78 Oklahoma kids. Similarly to the SEC, Big 12 South schools have had 376 players drafted, and the Big 12 North schools have had 341 drafted. The schools in the talent poor states raid the talent rich states.
The Big 10 schools have had 775 players drafted (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Illinois are the talent rich states). The PAC-10 schools have had 654 players drafted, the lion’s share coming from California (745 California schoolboys were drafted, the most of any state. Washington, Oregon and Arizona produced only 223 drafted HS players combined).
What would happen if Texas and Texas A&M were added to the SEC? Two things:
1. The two schools’ football reps would immediately get a boost, by virtue of joining the best (and getting…bester?) conference. They would immediately recruit better (marginal improvement for Texas, since it is already recruiting at an elite level). The remaining Big 12 schools would recruit a little poorer in Texas.
2. The SEC would get better, because the available talent pool would get broader and deeper. The SEC would become a conference properly placed between the NFL and D-1A.
This would really shake up the college football world. Now, what if Texas and Texas A&M joined the PAC-10? And it split into two divisions, with Texas, TAMU, Arizona, ASU, UCLA, and USC in one division, and the rest in another? You would then have a talent base that could rival the SEC. What about the Big 12 remnants? They would be hurt. Consider these two schedules for Texas in the PAC-10 and OU in a reconstituted Big 12 (UH, TCU, Utah, and BYU replacing UT, TAMU, NU, and Mizzou):
Texas:
Rice (H)
ULM (H)
@UTEP
UCLA (H)
OU (Dallas)
@Ariz
ASU (H)
@USC
@Cal
Oregon (H)
@WSU
TAMU (H)
Now, OU:
UNT (H)
@Cincy
UCF
TCU (H)
UT (Dallas)
BU (H)
@TT
@UH
Col (H)
@ISU
BYU (H)
@OSU
Yeah, OU would tear through that schedule. They would still be considered a less big-time team, and struggle recruiting against UT and TAMU. It would be like Penn State recruiting against Pitt. But wait- what if OU joined the SEC?
(Ha-ha-ha-ha! Ha-ha-ha-ha!)
Yeah, the SEC wants to add a team that provides few extra TV sets, and adds a recruiting base slightly larger than Arkansas’.
So, you say, TaylorTRoom, the PAC-10 is the way to go, right? I’m not so sure. I would feel a lot better if I knew USC and Oregon would recruit by the same rules (i.e. the NCAA rules) we do. The Big 10 is the conference that really has the ADs managed by the administrations. However, the nation’s demographics are heading south and west. The PAC-10’s big advantage is the number of direct flights to Tucson, Phoenix, Los Angeles, the bay area, and Seattle. It can also present a clear vision for the near term (the Big 10 is scary the way it keeps suggesting 12 teams, no 14 teams, no 16 teams).
What do you think is best for Texas? It may be the Big 12, but I am adamantly opposed to letting Beebe put a poison pill into the membership agreement. I think Texas will be fine in either the Big 10 or PAC-10, and TAMU would get a big boost from either move.
This has been a long post, and I still didn’t get into issues like the impact on opening up the state to recruiters from out of state, nor the impact on TV contract revenues from conference realignments. The Executive summary- any move by Texas and Texas A&M will help their new conference, and hurt the Big 12. The Big 12 needs to consider how important recruiting and money is to it, and then decide appropriately going forward. What do you think?
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Even if the Big 12 does put a poison pill in the membership agreement (doubtful because at least 4 maybe 5 teams currently have motive to avoid inserting such a penalty) the penalty will not be so high that we can’t absorb it fairly easily with an increase of 10 mil per year in TV money.
I highly doubt some of the schools like Missouri or even CU without anywhere near our budget would approve more than a token penalty for leaving the conference. Otherwise they would be absolutely bound to the conference and we would still have the resources to leave.
Hell CU can’t even afford to fire Dan Hawkins and they haven’t been this bad in football for 25 years.
by Roach on May 28, 2010 11:13 AM CDT reply actions
Both limited PAC-10 (plus A&M and Texas) and limited Big 10 expansion (ND, Texas and Texas A&M) would work fine for Texas on both a short- and long-term basis.
The SEC is a non-starter, as is a Pac-20 for that matter. A Big 16 could work with the correct pieces but does seem bloated
by Astor B on May 28, 2010 11:18 AM CDT reply actions
If we joined the SEC, I would get with aggy and tell the SEC that our joining the conference is contingent on them not allowing OU to join. Then I’d nix the series with OU. They’d be fucked.
by Houstonearler on May 28, 2010 12:17 PM CDT reply actions
“But wait- what if OU joined the SEC….Yeah, the SEC wants to add a team that provides few extra TV sets, and adds a recruiting base slightly larger than Arkansas’.”
The irony of this statement is that you provide the logic as to exactly why it could happen earlier in your very own words in the same post:
“I think the answer is found in the excessive conference pride the SEC members are known for. I think that SEC pride in having the best football conference has gone from a bragging point to a foundation of their marketing strategy. They don’t fear an expanded Big 10 competitively, but they do not want to allow anybody else the boast of having the biggest and best conference…They would rather expand than cede their current position as the unrivaled conference.”
Of college football’s traditional powers, OU is the single most obvious choice for the SEC. Close to the region, instant cachet as far as name and program recognition both traditionally and currently, no overriding demands for strict regulations of any sort, no strict allegiances of any kind.
by NateHeupel on May 28, 2010 1:14 PM CDT reply actions
Nate, rank these non-SEC schools in terms of desirability-
OU, OSU, Miami, FSU, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Louisville
The SEC has lots of expansion opportunities before it has to invite a school that brings few TV sets, will recruit its territories, and require the most travel.
by TaylorTRoom on May 28, 2010 1:36 PM CDT reply actions
“…no overriding demands for strict regulations of any sort…”
Easily overlooked comment, but in truth it speaks volumes about the OU program.
You’d best hope the SEC will take you, because most of the other attractive options aren’t interested in an outlaw program which is a corrosive partner in so many ways. Good riddance IMO.
by blackscholes on May 28, 2010 2:01 PM CDT reply actions
I agree with Black-Scholes, but also note that Texas will continue to play OU in Dallas even if we were to be in another conference. Texas can’t give that game up. If we did, OU would play the Ags there, even if the Ags were in another conference. It’s just too good of a recruiting showcase for North Texas recruiting. If OU tried to stop playing Texas (i.e. tried to replace Texas with another state fair opponent), we would just find another out of state school with a big name to replace them (Notre Dame?). We are joined with OU in that annual matchup for a long, long time.
by TaylorTRoom on May 28, 2010 2:11 PM CDT reply actions
SEC fans & their conference pride = strange, fervent & real. If you haven’t lived in the region, you cannot imagine how strong it is.
CFB media has figured it out and has recently fallen in line with the fans in the interest of making money. It’s turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
by Matt Cotcher on May 28, 2010 2:25 PM CDT reply actions
They can’t match that Big 12 pride though, you know, the coaches working together and backing each other…..our conference is such a fucking joke all the way down.
by ballrific on May 28, 2010 2:40 PM CDT reply actions
Now that they’ve got a new contract, I’m starting to think the SEC won’t be able to steal any ACC teams. Academics matter to those schools, and several were repeatedly spurned by the SEC in the past.
The admin decides these things, not the fans, so I think both UT and the Ags are most likely to go the Big Ten. Maybe the Pac Ten, but not as just the 11th and 12th teams and UT won’t want to be in the same division as USC. More likely with Utah and Colorado and perhaps 2 others to balance out power and limit travel to the NW. The jughead Byrne may like the SEC, but he doesn’t make the call. Big Ten is cleaner, the money is more assured and probably much higher, and no time zone issues (even if I think that can be worked around with good negotiations.)
Put us and the Ags in the Big Sixteen and the SECheats may be cornered. Would adding OU, KS, WV, and TCU be enough for ESPN to reopen the contract? I doubt it, they’d really need NE to have a chance. If we squeeze out NE and MO from Big Ten expansion, they’ll probably look west. Even if the Pac Ten only goes to 12, CO and NE may be more profitable than Utah and CO. So SEC expansion might then require a pay cut. Are they really going to do that for pride?
Hard to think of worse timing for a scandal if I were a Jayhawk or Sooner. Poooooor SooNERS!
by Former pansion on May 28, 2010 3:29 PM CDT reply actions
Former:
I laugh when you say the SEC won’t be able to steal any ACC teams because “academics matter to those schools”.
You may be right about schools like UNC, Duke, and Virginia, but Miami would fit right in with the SEC in just about every way imaginable.
by Roach on May 28, 2010 4:36 PM CDT reply actions
Taylor,
It depends very highly on the criteria, but I think you’ve already got your own objective and not-at-all biased criteria in mind. Again, you made the best argument for OU in SEC. Only one of the schools on that list you drew up brings the immediate credibility of a team with 7 MNCs and a very long string of recent success. If Miami starts becoming badass again, that changes the discussion. The SEC is a group of schools that pour money into athletics above all else, and their marketing strategy is that they’re the best/toughest conference. OU is the only team on the list that adds anything tangible to the SEC’s stature. If the objective is just to expand for the sake of expansion, then any 2nd rate team will do. There’s only one team on that list that has been a year in, year out contender for the last decade.
blackscholes,
Outline the “many ways” in which OU is a corrosive partner. I’m genuinely curious as to your take. That said, OU isn’t a match in any shape or form for any other conference but the SEC. It’s a moot discussion, and I’ve already posted as much.
by NateHeupel on May 28, 2010 4:46 PM CDT reply actions
“The jughead Byrne may like the SEC, but he doesn’t make the call.”
Thank you for pointing this out. Byrne is a cocky big swingin’ dick, but he has very little power in this particular scenario.
by ColoradoAg on May 28, 2010 6:11 PM CDT reply actions
Right you are about the SEC:
1. Tail (athletics) wags the dog (academics), w/ the exception of Vandy.
2. Lack of recruiting ethics. If the NCAA had any balls, Bama, Tennessee, among others, would’ve received the Death Penalty over the last 2 decades.
3. Excessive conference pride, obnoxiously so. But the SEC does have solidarity going for it. After victories in non-conference games, you often hear fans chanting, “S-E-C.”
HOWEVER, just as the Aggies perpetuated several myths (e.g., Aggies sell out their stadium; Aggies never leave the game early) during their last heyday, there are at least a couple of myths re: the SEC:
1. They sell out all their games. I’ve seen PLENTY of games where the stands are nowhere near being full. Those weren’t just non-conference games over the likes of Louisiana Monroe either – even intraconference games don’t sell out, not just Vandy-UKy games.
2. Their rivalries are full of tradition. The 10 schools prior to expansion in ‘92 have been together since the dawn of time. However, if you look at the number of meetings b/t them, it looks like they’ve avoided each other most of the time. Heck, UT has more meetings w/ Tech than many of these so-called heated rivalries do.
Even though I hate to admit it, I think OU would be a very attractive option for expansion for the SEC. If the SEC could get UT, I don’t think they’d take A&M over OU. A&M is a DISTANT 2nd to UT in perhaps every positive attribute. OU, OTOH, doesn’t bring much in terms of population, but does bring a long winning tradition, albeit tainted by cheating (hey, they’d fit right in w/ the SEC!). Seriously, what really has A&M ever done, except cheat & provide fodder for jokes?
As long as no school leaves the Big 12 (I know, a big question mark considering Mizzou keeps on flashing its breasts to the Big 10; Osborne, ever the sore loser, keeps on threatening that NU could leave; & CU flirting w/ the Pac-10), I think the Big 12 is the best conference for UT. It’s a conference where UT dominates (although Mack needs to get more titles) & we can keep an eye on our 2 biggest rivals. If either A&M or OU leave for the SEC & UT were to go to a different conference, the pull of the SEC to TX recruits would be too difficult to overcome.
by Joetx on Jun 2, 2010 4:12 PM CDT reply actions
Joetx, OU takes in $48.3 million in ticket sales and foundation donations per year.That’s after 10 years at a historic high level. TAMU takes in $63.2 million in ticket sales and foundation donations after 10 years of mediocrity. That’s why TAMU is a more enticing candidate- there is just a much larger demand for the product.
by TaylorTRoom on Jun 2, 2010 4:56 PM CDT reply actions
@ TTR – It looks like we’ll have to agree to disagree re: OU’s attractiveness to the SEC vis-a-vis A&M. I still believe that if UT were to go to the SEC, the SEC would have the State of TX “covered.” A&M is a distant 2nd to UT in fan support/interest. In addition, I think there’s a perception of adding more value if you add another state, especially if you add the flagship of that state (even if the flagship is that of OK). Finally, OU is a top 10 traditional power. A&M barely makes the top 25.
by Joetx on Jun 3, 2010 1:46 PM CDT reply actions
OU is a Top 10 traditional power without a recruiting base of its own. Only two schools have pulled that off- Notre Dame and OU. Notre Dame does it by being a national school, and the home school for Catholics. OU does it by claiming North Texas as its territory. Problem is that North Texas is just not Oklahoma, and its recruiting base will never be absolutely solid for them. If OU did not have the RRS, it would lose its North Texas base.
by TaylorTRoom on Jun 3, 2010 4:01 PM CDT reply actions
@ TTR – I’d argue that NU & possibly Tennessee and/or Bama don’t have much of a recruiting base either, yet they’re all Top 10 traditional powers.
by Joetx on Jun 4, 2010 12:06 PM CDT reply actions

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