Expected yield from the corn harvest

I think Gene Chizik did pretty well against Tech in Lubbock.

Ok St is in Austin this year.

Did OU lose Stephen Good?

Great writeup, nickel. 10-2 sounds right, hopefully that means conf title game and BCS bowl wins to get to 12-2

Good read. After the last few weeks, I’ve been hoping that we put up some where in the neighborhood of 120 total points on NU this year. 70-3 would be the perfect going away present.

Good read, but one quick correction: The Okie Lite game is in Austin last year, it got ugly in stillwater last year.

*The Okie Lite game is in Austin THIS year.

Good was a redshirt freshman last year. I wasn’t aware he was gone.

I agree with most of your points although I still have no idea what Tuberville is planning on doing with Tech on the offensive side so that one is tough to forecast.

Of course, I don’t even remember the last time NU prevailed against Texas in that stadium.

1933?

Agree with you that the Tech game is problematic, largely due to it being early in the year and in Lubbock.

I don’t see the Nebraska game as being so scary. Suh did so much for them, allowing them to sit in dime coverage pretty much all the time. Crick is solid, but won’t do near as much for them as Suh. So we agree that their defense may be more suspect than people think. On offense, I just don’t see them scoring enough points to win. They were bad last year, and I don’t see a quick turnaround. 24-10 Texas.

As long as I coach the Nebraska Offensive line you can guarantee we will be worthless.

It’s important to note that the low correlation for fumbles and forced fumbles is probably driven by their relative randomness. It’s not that a fumble or forced fumble can’t be a game-decider when it happens, it’s that their occurrence is more random than people want to believe. When something happens in an important situation, human tendency is to ascribe blame or believe that it’s because of a failure or great play. Sometimes it’s just chance.

Jamaal Charles had a hugely important fumble against Oklahoma. There’s no denying that. He has henceforth been considered a fumbler by a large portion of our fanbase and some scouts. He fumbled a grand total of 5 times that season on 258 carries (one fumble per 51.6 carries). Meanwhile Darren McFadden fumbled 15 times on 325 carries (one fumble per 21.7 carries) on his way to the Doak Walker, Maxwell, and Walter Camp awards and a runner-up Heisman finish to Jesus himself. One of those two runners had a fumbling issue. The other happened to have one of his random fumbles occur in an important situation. For the record, the average fumble rate is about one per 33.5 carries although I include receiver catches as carries in that calculation for my stats. I have to because box scores include receiver fumbles in the totals.

I see Tech being early in the season favoring the Horns. New coach inheriting an offense he doesn’t really like and a mediocre defense he won’t have much time to turn around. Plus they may still not be completely settled on a starting QB.

What do we really know about Tubs offensive plans in Lubbock? Will he try to keep a good thing going? SEC-style rush-based “attack”? A mix of both?

At this point, I think it’s a stretch to say that Tech’s offense will be better than A&M’s. JMO though.

I believe Tech’s new OC is from Troy and they ran a similar offense to the one we have seen in LBK over the past several years. I personally think they will utilize Batch more, whether it be running plays or screen/ swing passes. Other than that I think it will be pretty close to the same, maybe 40 pass attempts as opposed to 60.

Didn’t Tubs bring in a spread guy as OC at Auburn, and it turned into a complete disaster? I know that may not be comparable situations, but still…

Just can’t see Tuberville putting his defense into the same types of situations and having them on the field for 75% of the TOP.

He may have a coronary over the OL splits.

“They do have Ryan Broyles but I’m guessing that their offensive line minus Stephen Good and Trent Williams isn’t any better this year and consequently I very much doubt that Landry Jones has much control over the ball or his bowels.”

Stephen Good is back for this year. And Trent Williams’s loss, for all his talent, may be addition by subtraction in a sense. The coaches often lamented his negative influence on the rest of the OL. His talent level allowed him to work half as hard as everyone else and get twice the results. It’s like when young guys with the 90’s Chicago Bulls tried to imitate MJ’s style of prep and practice. They didn’t understand that it wasn’t what he did; it was who MJ was. Don’t get me wrong, we’ll be taking a big step down in blindside protection. But I think we’ll also see improvement everywhere else. OU also didn’t have one OL last year, we had 10 different combinations of starting OL due to injury. We get that under control, and maybe Landry doesn’t get his stool pushed in by Acho ocho uno as often.

If you really think Baylor at home is a scare then stay away from the stock market or anything else requiring a decision.

Crap. I knew the game was in Austin I don’t know why I did that. Brian Simmons graduated/left Stephen Good remains.

Tech has some real quality in their interior line, at the skill positions, and in either starting quarterback. If they end up running the ball considerably more they can do it, if they keep throwing it all day they’re still well equipped for that as well.

It’s easy to say that Tech will be trouble because the game is early and in Lubbock but they also have perhaps their best team save maybe for the 2008 squad since Mack has been here. I’m not saying we are a lock to lose but I think it’s the toughest game.

The Nebraska game I really see trouble for mostly because of the timing after playing UCLA, Tech and OU.

“And Trent Williams’s loss, for all his talent, may be addition by subtraction in a sense. "

We all know Kevin Wilson will surely label it his best line ever come August.

Houstonearler,

That’s no shit. He’ll try to have the world convinced they’re a brick wall and that every single one is an All America.

Great stuff.

“Teams that can stop the run with an honest front”. Mack is making GD focus more on running this season but I’ll be happy if the horns run well enough to force opponents to play the run straight up.

Excellent writeup, NR

Now, ‘splain to me how we go 10-2 — losing to Tech and OU — and get into the Big 12 title match. Sooners play Tech in Norman; how’s OU to lose twice? Aggies? Colorado? Wish it could be . . .

Don’t worry about the Cornwhiners, we have an off week after OU to prepare for Lincoln.

We’ll be rested and will give ’em a final reminder as to why they are fleeing the conference they built.

I should add, with a new QB I expect a 3-loss season, including an ugly upset. But we’ll win in Lincoln, even if it is our only win.

Barney Cotton is sadly correct – he may be the worst position coach in D1, and his resume is replete with endless failure.

I went to HS with Barney. I didn’t know him well enough to dislike him, but my wife can’t stand him.

The outcome of the Alabama game didn’t have shit to do with us stopping the pass…..

Yes derryl, thank you. You found one game 2 seasons where not stopping the run cost the Longhorns a victory.

Didn’t notice the bye week before the Nebraska game, I still think we drop 2 overall.

EDSP: you’ll notice I had Texas losing to Nebraska and Tech while beating OU. Maybe a 3-way tie would occur but I bet OU drops 2-4 conference games.

So you think your poor running game and sub par running backs are a sure thing against A&M’s interior line? A few more things to consider:

You need to do some research on Garrick Williams. He’ll be an all conference candidate.

If you haven’t abandoned the “run first” scheme by the A&M game with 3-4 losses already, I’ll be surprised.

Tim Deruyter will have this defense turned around. If he can scheme to slow you down any, I know A&M’s offense will be good for at least 35 points this year in Austin. I don’t think your new run first scheme will net you that many per game in conference, and you’re looking at a lot more close games than the Cart/VY era.

Coupled with first year starter at QB and the nations best pass rusher breathing down his neck, I think A&M will outscore you in Austin. 41-24 or something like that.

“but I bet OU drops 2-4 conference games”

I can see three (UT, A&M in College Station, @Mizzou), but who’s the 4th?

That said, if OU comes out of their non-conference undefeated, I’ll go ahead and predict wins over UT and Missouri. If they win all of the OOC games by 10+, I’ll take the Phil Steele route and pick OU to run the table. A lot rides on the development of the offensive line and Landry Jones. Needless to say, I’m not yet convinced that OU will win all of its OOC games.

“If he can scheme to slow you down any, I know A&M’s offense will be good for at least 35 points this year in Austin.”

Babalugats, got a bet here!

Nate, you still believe in Landry Jones?

I haven’t seen anything yet to convince me that we are going to reverse the trend over the last 6 or 7 years and actually want the T-Day game as much as A&M wants it.

We still win most of them based on talent and close-game experience, but it’s been awhile since we’ve won that game because of determination. In a year where the talent gap (read: experience) and productivity are closer than normal, I’ll take the aggies to win that game.

dick,

“you still believe in Landry Jones?”

I’m on the fence. I think OU will see very solid improvement on the OL between the fact that we’ve now got about 9 guys with at least two games of starting experience in conference. But as for Mr. Jones?

On the one hand, Stoops & Co. are notorious for underdeveloping the backups. This is not at all concerning, especially considering our good luck with injuries. So when a Heisman Trophy winning QB goes down in the first game, I can automatically assume his backup will be utterly and completely unprepared to run the offense. In addition, the receivers not named Ryan Broyles were dropping passes hitting them in the hands, and his OL was a patchwork quilt of any five healthy guys we could find who weighed more than 270 pounds.

On the other hand, his supposed best game was against Stanford. He threw an atrocious interception to a very mediocre DB, and failed to see open WRs downfield. So I’m in doubt if he’ll have the same high ceiling that Bradford had.

Nate, where do you play Tech this year? I think Baylor could have been an upset last year had Griffin been healthy although I’m sure beating OU in Norman is probably beyond his powers. You may be right if you’re suggesting that OU has the clearest path to the Big 12 title game in the south. I would think your OOC would kill you in the tiebreaker this time though.

Reality-not-allowed: please post more often…

Nickel:

Tech is coming to Norman. Home team has won that game since 2004. We play Baylor in Waco and Oklahoma State in Stillwater. I do think OU has the clearest path to the Big 12 title game. But I think 2008 would be what kill us in the tiebreaker. Wouldn’t you agree?

Perhaps, Fox did show a particular delight in announcing OU in 2008 welcoming former Hitler’s youth Barry Switzer on their program to make the announcement.

Sounds like y’all have a better draw though, even if we win the RRS. Tech and Nebraska makes for a tough road schedule while OSU is gonna have a down year.