John Lopez Not Getting Any Smarter

by TaylorTRoom on Jul 14, 2010 1:33 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

John P. Lopez is an expert practitioner in Aggie logic, which is to say, an expert in reasoning that isn’t logical at all. Perhaps the most famous graduate of TAMU’s defunct Journalism department (snort- and Tatu was the greatest talent in indoor Dallas soccer history), he has been toiling in the more lucrative alternative media (radio and internet) the past few years. This allows him to pander to Ag fans in the subscription commentary market, while still selling content to widecast media (Sports Illustrated’s webpage). His SI niche is NFL commentary, Houston-centric by nature, not design. His first SI article, last fall, explained why the Texans were very smart to draft Mario Williams instead of VY. Sure, if you’re not focused on winning or marketing, which may actually be the case with the Texans.

This displays a consistent theme of Lopez’ writing – "VY will fail". When with the Chronicle, he explained why the Texans were committing to Carr and not drafting Young, and kept touting Carr during the season http://blogs.chron.com/lopezblog/archives/2006/10/would_you_trade.html

Until he stopped… http://blogs.chron.com/lopezblog/archives/2006/12/does_mcnair_mak.html

But, even after the beatings, he never really believed in Vince, as his first SI article showed. His first Texags.com private board post provided some Vince Wonderlic bashing…

http://www.texags.com/mwr/articles.asp?issue_id=825

which is, of course, sweet nectar to the Ag fanbase.

This obsession over Vince, and Lopez’ fascination with the Wonderlic as a validation of his VY hatred, plays out again in Lopez’ latest work, where he explains the magic formula for predicting QB success in the NFL-

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/john_lopez/07/08/qb.rule/index.html

He claims that three metrics, available before the draft to all teams, can reduce the variability in the drafting of quarterbacks. These metrics are Wonderlic score, games started, and college completion percentage (Note- he makes it clear through example that the level of college play- D-1A or D-1AA- makes no difference in the use of this formula). Wow. If true, this is the NFL scouting discovery of the decade, similar to when Gil Brandt discovered that huge guys that run really fast work out better than huge guys that are slow, even if they come from bad college teams. But, is he right? Does it work?

In his article, he gives examples. He has a list of several QBs since 1998 that exceed his defined metrics – minimum Wonderlic of 26, minimum of 27 college starts, and minimum passing percentage of 60%. He also provides a list of QBs that fall short in one or more metric. The first list definitely has better QBs than the second list. He then has a third list of a few guys who are doing well despite falling short in one or more metric (can you guess which of the latter two lists Vince is on? Come on, this is John Lopez! Of course, he’s on the list with Akili Smith!).

This Lopez theory is a complete failure. Here’s why.

1. He uses selected examples. He does not survey all QB prospects since 1998, nor all high drafted QBs. Why were first round picks like Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Carson Palmer (!), J.P. Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart and Drew Stanton not included? If they supported his argument, he would have used them. He doesn’t. There seems to be no rhyme nor reason to which players he surveys. He uses some high draft picks, and some low draft picks (Ryan Fitzpatrick?), and even an undrafted player (Romo) to support his argument. If you were really willing to test your hypothesis, you would apply the test to a complete list of players that meet a common standard (perhaps 1^st round picks, or drafted QBs, or even Combine QBs), and see how it worked. That would tell you how it worked as a forecast tool.

2. The demarcation lines for his metrics are arbitrary. Look at the list he provides. Is the difference between a 26 Wonderlic and a 25 Wonderlic that significant? How about the 27 starts? If Lopez weren’t just ignoring Matt Leinart, I would suspect he set the bar at 27 simply to keep Leinart off the good list. The two best pro QBs today are Manning and Brady. Brady had a 33 Wonderlic, completed over 60% of his passes, and started…25 games at Michigan. What good is a QB rating tool that rejects Tom Brady?

How about 60%? Doesn’t he know there is a huge difference between 60% completions in a 1990s college offense, and 60% completions today? Why not just say "top 25% in completion percentage"?

If you asked Huck how these three metrics relate to NFL quarterbacking, he would give you a multiple regression, and tell you the forecast variability and strength of each factor. Lopez just picks arbitrary examples to support his argument and runs with it.

3. He ignores the obvious. Go back and look at the lists of stars and busts. How many of the stars didn’t have to start until they had a few years in the NFL as backups? How many of the busts were thrown into the fire? Think that might have something to do with it?

If Lopez had discovered a tool that helped GMs differentiate between college QBs they were comparing (pool of all QBs, or just the pool of touted QBs), he might have something. If he had a tool that meant something to QBs preparing for the league, he might have something. He has neither. He has nothing.

The news isn’t all bad for Lopez. The day will surely come when the world realizes Vince Young can’t be an effective NFL quarterback. That day will be in 2023.

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Comments

What a douche. Thank you for exposing him as such.

(snort- and Tatu was the greatest talent in indoor Dallas soccer history)

Here’s one vote for David Doyle

by Max Fischer on Jul 14, 2010 1:58 PM CDT reply actions

Worst part is, the Chronicle actually improved when this dolt moved on.

Still a rag, tho.

by TOR on Jul 14, 2010 2:10 PM CDT reply actions

For what it’s worth, plenty of Ags find Lopez’s work to be drivel.

by ColoradoAg on Jul 14, 2010 2:25 PM CDT reply actions

Didn’t Lopez leave radio to start a party bus business? Since he’s back on radio (in theory, 610 is unlistenable) I’m guessing it didn’t work out.

by No cheers for the bus driver? on Jul 14, 2010 2:45 PM CDT reply actions

I’m was a big fan of 610 when Andre Ware was still on board, but Lopez has dropped the stock so far below board that it just isn’t worth listening anymore.

by D D D on Jul 14, 2010 2:51 PM CDT reply actions

610 is so worthless, and J-Lo epitomizes it. I wish John McLain would eat him.

by clarky on Jul 14, 2010 2:52 PM CDT reply actions

Totally agree about 610AM – Lopez + Vandermeer is just awful.

by Levander Williams on Jul 14, 2010 2:54 PM CDT reply actions

my quality of life has improved exponentially ever since I got XM and don’t have to listen to Houston sports talk radio.

Andre Ware is a joke too so they went from shit to shit if they replaced him with J-Lo

by dick on Jul 14, 2010 2:58 PM CDT reply actions

Pallilo is the only one in the Houston market worth listening to. I live near the Galleria and can’t listen to 1560 without major static so I cannot comment on their radio hosts.

by Houstonearler on Jul 14, 2010 3:14 PM CDT reply actions

Pallilo is really good, man. And 1590 has got some decent hosts, but what is wrong with their reception?

Also, if you haven’t listened to the local shows on 97.5, then you’re a wiser man than I. They actually took a step back in talent when Calvin Murphy was shown the door.

by clarky on Jul 14, 2010 3:20 PM CDT reply actions

I actually like Vandermeer, but Lopez… I wake up every morning to Houston sports radio (well, I’m in Austria right now, but when I’m in the states, I do. Anyways…) and Lopez has just about convinced me to turn it over to NPR.

When the Big 12 was going through the crisis, Lopez’s constant talk about how great the SEC would be for the Ags was more than unbearable. He actually claimed that anyone who opposed the Ags to the SEC was afraid of what they would become. UGH!

It is comforting to know I am not the only one that can’t stand him.

by Sasha is a Longhorn Dog on Jul 14, 2010 3:32 PM CDT reply actions

“Didn’t Lopez leave radio to start a party bus business? Since he’s back on radio (in theory, 610 is unlistenable) I’m guessing it didn’t work out.”

My understanding is that Lopez left the Chronicle in part in order to get into the bus business. He was on the radio while he had the bus thing going. As best I can tell, that has failed.

by Bob in Houston on Jul 14, 2010 3:51 PM CDT reply actions

I can’t stand Lopez or Vandermeer (we’ve hit this before) but in no way could I describe my distaste for Lopez as well as Sasha….

“and Lopez has just about convinced me to turn it over to NPR.”

That has to be the worst kick in the balls you can give a man.

by magnusbleuveigner on Jul 14, 2010 4:47 PM CDT reply actions

I completely agree with everyone who has referenced that EPIC FAIL that is Lopez on the radio. 610 is unlistenable and his bizarre Maxim-magazine tinged persona sounds grasping and desperate. Then there’s his completely unlikeable personality and lack of insight.

So, I would expect nothing less than weird rantings from him. And that’s what we get.

by Toadvine on Jul 14, 2010 4:50 PM CDT reply actions

Amazing how many of you hate him but listen…

by Pump Me Up on Jul 14, 2010 5:31 PM CDT reply actions

I can’t believe you invested this much time into something written by John Lopez.

by nordberg on Jul 14, 2010 5:43 PM CDT reply actions

He’s a has been who doesn’t get it.

by white cloud on Jul 14, 2010 7:25 PM CDT reply actions

Lopez is a good example of The Shitbird.

by TOR on Jul 14, 2010 7:30 PM CDT reply actions

Lopez is the sole reason why I don’t listen to 610 in the morning anymore.

by GMan on Jul 14, 2010 8:22 PM CDT reply actions

Lopez is a good example of The Shitbird.

If he went on Sesame Street, would he be gang raped by the words No, Nickel, Neat, Now, and Nice?

by Sponsored by the number 10 on Jul 14, 2010 9:11 PM CDT reply actions

Perhaps the basic statistics course he took was part of the now defunct journalism department.

I see his name attached to a piece and go on to the next.

by java on Jul 14, 2010 10:40 PM CDT reply actions

love the dallas sidekick reference

by Nathan on Jul 15, 2010 12:33 AM CDT reply actions

Decision making under fire. You can’t shit your pants in the NFL. That’s what Kurt Warner and Vince Young have in common. They never panic.

by dedfischer on Jul 15, 2010 7:11 AM CDT reply actions

VY crying about losing his job and going on suicide watch doesn’t count as shitting your pants?

by reality_not _allowed on Jul 15, 2010 7:27 AM CDT reply actions

In all fairness, I find Richard Justice just as insufferable.

by magnusbleuveigner on Jul 15, 2010 7:37 AM CDT reply actions

“VY upset about not getting to compete and his hangers-on freaking out doesn’t count as shitting your pants?”

FIFY, and no.

by TaylorTRoom on Jul 15, 2010 8:50 AM CDT reply actions

TTR, you’re making me dizzy with the spin on that story. Everyone knows VY’s not a great passing QB or leader at the NFL level. But on a very run heavy team where he isn’t required to do a lot of thinking, VY can be a servicable QB. He’s proven that. No need to re-invent the embarassing story of how he nearly lost it over losing his job.

I just disagree with the tech tard’s lapdog assessment of VY’s NFL career as a younger, blacker, Kurt Warner.

by reality_not _allowed on Jul 15, 2010 9:31 AM CDT reply actions

“Everyone knows VY’s is a winning QB and great leader at the NFL level.”

FIFY

You’re an Ag, right?

by TaylorTRoom on Jul 15, 2010 9:37 AM CDT reply actions

Vince Young has won more NFL games than any recent aggy quarterback has even thrown passes in the NFL. Hell, his 99-yard, 2 minute TD drive alone exceeds the combined feats of all aggy quarterbacks in the NFL during my lifetime.

by sessamoid on Jul 15, 2010 9:51 AM CDT reply actions

VY has owned aggy from the beginning. It started with Reggie is better. It continues with he can’t pass. Dude is 26-12 as a starter on a team with garbage receiving targets and, from reports from his OC, VY is having by far his best offseason. I suspect he will continue owning aggy’s jackass predictions as he shoots for his third pro bowl season out of four.

by Houstonearler on Jul 15, 2010 10:48 AM CDT reply actions

Hey Ags, at least reggie could run faster in a straight line, ya got that going for ya.

by ballrific on Jul 15, 2010 10:52 AM CDT reply actions

“Great leaders” don’t shit the bed when they lose their job to Kerry Collins.

“Great leaders” as QBs aren’t on run oriented offenses in the NFL. Their offense is compensating for his lack of decision-making ability in the passing game.

VY’s NFL wins are more a product of the Titans great defenses and powerful rushing game than his leadership or QBing ability.

by reality_not _allowed on Jul 15, 2010 1:22 PM CDT reply actions

Another thing, relax on the whole “VY Pro Bowl” nonsense. He has never been a consensus Pro Bowler, only an alternate replacement after the alternate player (anwhere from 3-5th best QB in the conference) declined or was “injured” and didn’t want to go. He shares that illustrious company with fellow shitbirds Derek Anderson, Jeff garcia, Jake Delhomme, and David Garrard.

VY is on their level, which is a serviceable pro in the middle of the pack of starters in the league. Gets a boost due to his team’s performance (again rushing and defense).

by reality_not _allowed on Jul 15, 2010 1:40 PM CDT reply actions

VY is winning because of the Titans 28th ranked defense last year?

26-12 is random luck evidently.

I think Collins has a .500 record as a starter on the same team.

Pretty sure the 0-6 Collins was also handing off to CJ.

by bullzak on Jul 15, 2010 2:05 PM CDT reply actions

reality, your opinions are unsupported by evidence. Titans’ great defense? Tell me, is the defense better for Vince than for Collins, with a much poorer record? BTW, in 2006 and 2009, the Titans had crappy defenses, giving up 25 ppg.

As for crapping the bed, is that what you call it when a guy wins a lot?

You sound bitter. Lay off the Hater-ade.

Use a little Google. In 2006, the haters said the Titans won because of Pac-man and Travis Henry. In 2007, the haters said it was Lendale White and Albert Haynesworth. In 2009, it was all Chris Johnson. Funny, I only see one common denominator.

by TaylorTRoom on Jul 15, 2010 2:06 PM CDT reply actions

Oh, you’re an Ag, right?

by TaylorTRoom on Jul 15, 2010 2:07 PM CDT reply actions

Funny, I only see one common denominator

Jeff Fisher

by reality_not _allowed on Jul 15, 2010 2:32 PM CDT reply actions

Fisher was also the constant through the 0 – 4 and 0 – 6 starts.

reality, you’re an Ag, aren’t you?

by TaylorTRoom on Jul 15, 2010 2:39 PM CDT reply actions

I wouldn’t say VY is anything close to an elite NFL QB, but he will have a job in the league for a long-time as a starter. Divide 15 or 16 by 300,000,000. You have to be special to win football games as a QB in the NFL and there’s no doubt that Vince is a winner. You can say he sucks all you want, but you sure as fuck didn’t make the cut.

by dedfischer on Jul 15, 2010 4:09 PM CDT reply actions

If Lopez represents Aggie sports writing.

And Justice and Bohls represents the Horns.

I’m yearning for a Tech guy to write.

by Scipio Tex on Jul 15, 2010 4:33 PM CDT reply actions

Paging Tim!

by magnusbleuveigner on Jul 15, 2010 4:34 PM CDT reply actions

Taylor, yes reality is an ag. I thought at first he was a joke but he’s been too persistent not to be real. Only an extremely bitter ag could look at Titans 26-12 record with VY and .500 record without and think VY isn’t making a difference.

by dick on Jul 15, 2010 6:25 PM CDT reply actions