Dealing with pests

“Dealing with Pests”, nicely done.

The hurry up O also stresses depth (which normally will favor UT) and also (most importantly) takes the opposition DC out of the game. This is huge when facing OU or NU. The hurry up also generates/exploits personnel mismatches. Side note: if Whaley plays H back, then, on any given play, he can line up at TB (with Newton or Fozzy shifting to WR). This means that you can dramatically change your O configuration without changing personnel, which is great when running the hurry up O.

I’m a Tray Allen fan. If you want to emphasize the screen and down field blocking more, Tray is your man.

Nice grading system.

The horns should run better this coming season because they are allocating more resources to blocking (i.e. playing both a TE and H back for extra blocking). They will also mostly using their O scheme that is optimized for running (i.e. QB under center and preassigned hole for quicker hitting attack). The OL will still be zone blocking but will be firing out faster and more aggressively (focusing more on driving and not quite as much on sustaining the block for an extended period).

My big question about the running attack is whether there will be enough power to keep opponents from loading up with speed defenders. Attack speed with power, attack power with speed.

If you and beergut are right, I don’t like our chances against any quality teams this year.

What worries me the most about this group is that I haven’t seen Muschamp take down a strong offense that relies on a dual-threat QB yet

Not easy to do. Very nice write-up, btw.

Then don’t kill the centipede on carpet. Trap the centipede and take it outside. It’s less messy.

Or get rid of your carpet.

It’s The Shitbird’s way of bracing T. Boone for the bounce pass.

So a&m has somehow constructed a better offense with a bunch of guys we passed on coming out of high school? Awesome.

Although by Thanksgiving I can see them being pretty beat down, particularly if they have any injuries at all on the line. That offense may not look all that great by then.

I found a scorpion in my house the other day returning from work.

So where does the scorpion work?

Passing on Nwachukwu and Michael certainly didn’t help. Uzoma was an almost offer, and we all knew at the time that passing on Michael would hurt. Everyone but Mack of course.

We fancied both Buckner and Grant over Fuller, if memory serves.

I have a feeling Muschamp has more than a passing interest in Aggie this offseason. I trust him to figure it out.

“I found a scorpion in my house the other day returning from work.”

How do you know he was returning from work? Did he have a little brief case? Was he bitching about TPS reports or the sales forecast meeting that ran long?

Did you really just give Garrett Gilbert and Jerrod Johnson the same score? And you accuse Beergut of having too much tinting in his glasses?

I know Aggie fans aren’t used to watching competent passing and that’s why they overrate Johnson’s abilities, but you need to accept the fact that he’s a Top 25 QB in college football. He’s not a Top 10 QB, he’s certainly not going to compete for a Heisman or O’Brien, but he’s a good solid QB.

It’s not hard to imagine Gilbert being a good solid Top 25 QB.

i think the next time that jerrod johnson wins a game on television it will his first time win a game on television.

that’s your heisman contender, aggies.

I never said JJ should be up for the hardware, or that he was even a top 10 QB. And I have seen plenty of great QBs at A&M – I was a friend and classmate of Gary Kubiak’s – you all may suffer violent flashbakcs at the name of Kevin Murray.

The point I’m making – if you are willing to ding A&M’s offensive line rating so much based on lack of experience, why don’t you do the same with Garrett Gilbert? Any pre-season rating that puts Garrett Gilbert on an equal footing with Jarrod Johnson has a pronounced orange stench to it.

Good post.

You rip beergut for not capitalizing Texas yet you consistently refer to us by the ever-original “Aggy”.

FanTake is better than that.

Nordberg,

Mack Brown passes on almost all recruits that are not falling all over themselves to come to Texas.

We did not pass on most of those aggy, they passed on Texas.

If Garrett Gilbert were really so good, he would not have looked so pitiful in the MNC game.

You tell that Shitbird! texas isn’t #6, they’re #3!

That’s show him.

And you rated A&M at the top like he did. What a dunce. This article should be deleted for its stupidity. You have effectively accomplished the opposite of what you intended when set out to prove that “Aggy” wrong.

It just seems to me that every Aggie i speak with about Jerrod Johnson will wax poetic for hours on end about his potential, abilities, and the Thanksgiving game from last year, but at the same time completely ignore his absolute meltdown against Kansas State or the fact that the quality of his play dropped quite a bit once he hit conference play.

Yes, I know this says absolutely nothing about Garrett Gilbert.

“Mack Brown passes on almost all recruits that are not falling all over themselves to come to Texas.

We did not pass on most of those aggy, they passed on Texas."

Um, no.

“If Garrett Gilbert were really so good, he would not have looked so pitiful in the MNC game.”

Also no. You seem like you suck.

Good write-up.

I think both CU & KSU have the ability to exceed that ranking. Both are accurate at this point, but both teams have enough pieces that it wouldn’t surprise me for either one to be in the top half this season.

Conversely I’d pick BU & Tech as the 2 teams with the greatest probability to underperform their ranking. RGIII should have some concerns with BU’s OL potential. I’ll believe in Tech’s offensive coaching/gameplanning after I’ve seen it.

Well, Jon – you talk to some dummies. But don’t we all?

And I could counter with the UT-Austin fans who tell me Garrett Gilbert will be just as good, if not better, than McCoy this year. Right…….

I think Gilbert has great upside – hell, by his senior year, I can easily imagine him being a superior QB to JJ. But not this year.

Ags go 6-7. Next preseason, a writer on a Texas site names ags as having the best offense in the conference. Ags show up all pissed off.

Got it.

We passed on both Fuller and Michael. Fuller was an obvious miss evaluation-wise. Michael was passed on because he’s illiterate.

“What worries me the most about this group is that I haven’t seen Muschamp take down a strong offense that relies on a dual-threat QB yet”

Didn’t he shutdown Tepow and UF’s offense when he was at Auburn?

Also, he did a good job against Missouri, Ok. State and tOSU in 2008.

We didn’t pass on Fuller. He had an offer and had us in his top 2 when he chose OU. If Buckner hadn’t committed first, I think he would have committed to Texas (possibly still changing to A&M with the Sherman hire).

And I’ll never figure out the whole Michael situation. If I remember correctly he wasn’t really recruited by Texas, OU or LSU. Keep waiting for some Goodson type back story on him, but so far it just seems like a huge miss by the big boys.

We didn’t pass on Fuller. He passed on us. He was predisposed to TAMU, and the Sherman hiring sealed the deal for them (his dad played for the Ags).

We screwed up passing on Michael (and Cyrus Gray).

Although he was very talented, we didn’t really miss on Michael Goodson (nor did Von Miller’s left hook- Zing! I’ll be here all night, and don’t forget to tip your waitresses).

Not sure if the choice of advertisement on each page is chosen, or automatically generated based on the content, but I find it amusing that the ad on this post is for Terminix.

“I think Gilbert has great upside – hell, by his senior year, I can easily imagine him being a superior QB to JJ. But not this year.”

First, if GG ends up being as good as most think, he won’t be at UT for his senior year. Also, I expect him to be a superior QB to JJ this year (the burnt orange glasses are strong with this one).

I’m looking forward to the game…hell, I’m looking forward to any game!

Nordberg,

Your butt has a burnt orange stench.

Why should we care about how the Gomers rank their offense vis-a-vis the rest of the conference? Their glasses are rose-tinted, as are many of ours.

Let’s be realistic about the Texas offense. Gilbert, although performing admirably in the biggest stage in CFB, hasn’t even started a game. He didn’t get many snaps last season outside of the BCS title game & is in just his 2nd year in the system. He has a lot of potential, but still has much to prove.

Goodwin is the only WR worth a damn. M. Williams is Mr. Butterfingers. To say Kirkendoll has been inconsistent would be an understatement.

We haven’t had even an average TE for the past 2 seasons (mostly due to injuries), let alone a great one since David Thomas (sorry, I don’t count I Left Early Finley).

The OL has been on ongoing disappointment.

The running game is a joke & has been for waaaaayyyy too long considering the ongoing talent at Greg Davis’ disposal. Johnson & Whaley should be made into FBs since they can’t figure out that, as big backs, they shouldn’t be running side-to-side.

This season, in a repeat of many others, have fans believing in change mostly on the basis that some HS stud will make the very quick transition into college stardom. Sorry, but been there, done that.

Muschamp & the D have proven themselves. Davis & the O have not.

“Nordberg,

Your butt has a burnt orange stench."

That’s one of the nicest things anyone has ever said to me.

I’ve watched every televised game Jerrod Johnson has played. And always read the boxscores. He played lights out against us last year. But he is nowhere near as good as his stats suggest. In most aggy blowouts, he sucks for the first half when the game is on the line. Then, when the other team is up big and backs off with their scrubs, he starts hitting bombs. I have never seen a QB rack up as many garbage stats as JJ.

The first time I saw a centipede in Texas I thought it had escaped from some nuclear experimental testing. Damn thing made a clicking noise walking on the sidewalk. I had never seen an insect that was big enough to actually make noise walking on concrete. I have to say I would not try to step on one of those things. Certainly not on carpet.

I think I would prefer to catch a rattlesnake.

“I’ve watched every televised game Jerrod Johnson has played.”

Both of them?!?!?!

Garrett Gilbert has as many wins on TV as Jerrod Johnson.

Our spring game was televised.

Gilbert 1
JJ 0

I think Jerrod Johnson has started and won one game that was televised. Well, kind of if you count FCS, which isn’t available to most of the country now and was available to less of the country back in 2008 when aggy beat ISU.

ATM did not look impressive in their bowl game. Special teams was particularly atrocious. By the time a bowl comes around, your special teams should be better than high school level.

JoeTx,
Barrett Matthews is going to be a good TE. He’s an excellent blocker, is fast, and, in the spring game, got good YAC and caught the ball well.

The running game has been a joke because the O was completely optimized (both in scheme and personnel) for passing. Putting the QB under center most of the time and using preassigned holes will make a much quicker hitting running attack. Lining up with both a TE and H back for blocking and using a more aggressive drive oriented approach will improve the run blocking. The running game is going to get the scheme, personnel, and practice emphasis it needs to improve quite a bit this season.

Agree with your conclusion (but not your particular line of reasoning) that Whaley and Cody should primarily play H back.

We’ll see about Malcolm Williams. Given that the guy is so dangerous after he catches the ball, it would be good to throw him a lot of short (easy to catch) passes to build his confidence and make it easier for him to get open long. If the horns play both a TE and an H back most of the time, then there will only be two WRs on the field.

Flamingmonkeyass FTW. Nordberg with a strong finish.

@ Kafka – What has the O shown, other than not being able to run the ball & the WRs dropping too many passes? Not much, I’m afraid.

The O may have been geared for the pass during the McCoy era, but why couldn’t Texas run against even the weak teams??? Face it, w/o a Superman in the backfield, Greg Davis has consistently shown his inability to field an O that can run the ball well.

I’ve heard the “we’re changing the offense in order to produce a better running game” spiel from Mack before. As long as Greg Davis is calling the plays (& there isn’t Superman in the backfield), I don’t believe Texas will be able to run the ball well & consistently.

Joetx-

We had a very strong rushing attack in 2007.

There’s actually not a lot in here that I don’t agree with. A few nits to pick.

Garrett Gilbert: 4
Landry Jones: 2.5
Both are closer to 3, because both are complete unknowns despite the film we have on both. We’ve never seen what these guys can do with a full offseason of reps as the starter. I could probably give you the 2.5 on Jones despite the very sharp improvement he showed in spring practice because spring practice means jack, but the 4 for Gilbert is completely indefensible for a guy who’s played 1.25 quarters of good, not great, football.

“I think Josh Wheedon has potential…”
This is like a strange mashup of TV/film producer Joss Whedon and OSU QB Brandon Weeden. You’re right in both cases. Dr. Horrible, imo.

“Consequently I’m wondering if Jaxon is actually slower than Senior Jordan who ran a 4.6 at the combine but had the quickness to get open underneath and make a move in pads against anyone”
Jaxon is a bit slower I think, but I also think his route running is more precise than Jordan at the same stage. You can make up for a lack of speed by running sharp routes, especially on underneath throws.

Giving A&M’s OL a 3 is generous but at least understandable.

Ranking the ags at the top either shows that the Big 12 offenses are really overrated or that many longhorn fans are putting too much stock into last Thanksgiving. Arky, KSU, Georgia and OU’s defenses laugh at this ranking.

Fuller was a legacy but wasn’t going to ATM as long as fran was there. Christine Michael publicly begged for LSU or UT offers and they never came for some reason. Nobody can nor will figure it out. He’s a good kid making the grades by all reports. Nobody else on their offense would stand out on our team.

I’m still pissed about the Goodson situation. That guy was legit and I hated seeing him tear us apart two years in a row. Stupid ordeal. We get Moody, the shitty RB. Goodson drops us from his list because he doesn’t want competition (we had Vondrell too, yay). Moody switches to USC and we get stuck with just Vondrell, Moody turns out to be a bust anyway, and Goodson is a star.

Nate,

I agree Gilbert should be a 3 or 3.5. Landry Jones can be a 3 as long as Broyles is healthy.

A&Ms OL as a 3 is probably too generous but it wouldn’t be hard to see some improvement in the offseason. Are A&M and OU’s OL equal?

Applewhite had Michael locked, but Mack would not sign off on another RB in that class. Just an awful, awful decision. I predict in two years we’ll still be trying to figure out what to do with Whaley.

Jaxon is also 6’1" and can jump about 20 feet in the air. He’s probably more comparable to a Chris Jones-type than Jordan Shipley.

“and Goodson is a star”

wrong

Good post Nate. I think most UT fans expect GG to be a superstar. I can understand how that seems stupid to outside fans, but I think at the very least he’s guaranteed big stats as the running game disappoints and we move back to a more pass-heavy system with all the WR “talent” and depth on the team. I do expect the new playbook to work when guys like Malcolm Brown, Joe Bergeron (FB), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE), and some of our OL recruits get here. Yes I am that arrogant to put two guys who haven’t even committed yet on the future roster.

I think Jones is definitely better than a 2.5. I was impressed with him in the Sun Bowl and think he’ll be a very solid QB at OU. I’d have no problem with a 3.5.

"

"and Goodson is a star"

wrong
"

All that and that’s the only thing you can say? Goodson was a very good and dynamic player at Aggie, and you actually feel it necessary to debate my opinion of a star? Living up to your moniker there bud.

Speaking of pests, welcome to Miami, Lebron!

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/health/fl-dengue-fever-miami-case-20100715,0,4308137.story

“Dengue fever hits Miami-Dade County”

Well I always give ya’ll full respect as the Fighting Aggies. Or F.Ags for short.

Mr. Nickel, you are close.

Bump A&M’s skill to 4 (no true gamebreakers, although Michael and Fuller are very solid), OL to 2.5 (going to be rough until proven otherwise), and bump OC to 4.5 or 5.

Big Sherm might be a flaming retarded monkey when it comes to things like, you know, recruiting and being a head coach with a clue and stuff – but the man knows his offense.

Sherman, Rossley and Kragthorpe are a pretty damn good offensive braintrust at the collegiate level.

Now, if we only had a DL that could crack the UNT 2 deep . . .

JoeTx,

Your skepticism is understandable. GD is mainly pass oriented, which explains the the O scheme totally optimized for passing (which explains the poor running results).

Mack is serious this year about improving the running because he has a rookie QB with a retooled OL that will probably have problems pass blocking against good D’s. Mack also saw how vulnerable the horns were in the MNC when the starting QB went down and there was absolutely no running attack to fall back on. Muschamp also probably told Mack that to defend the run well, the UT D requires a good running attack to practice against. Muschamp might also have mentioned to Mack that it is absurd for UT not to have a competent running game. UT will have excellent D and special teams so key requirements for the O are to minimize turnovers and run clock (hence the emphasis on the running game). Running more will reduce the need for the OL to pass block and will facilitate play action passing for long passes (reducing the stress on the OL).

My guess is that the horns will run significantly better against mediocre (and worse) teams than in the past because UT is making the schematic and personnel choices to improve their running game. I’m more dubious about how well UT runs vs OU and NU. It should be instructive to see how well UT runs on Tech.

but didn’t goodson put his dick in the mashed potatoes or something up in stilllwater, hence he fell to the ags b/c even okie st. didnt want his shenanigans? or something like that…yeah, doesn’t sound like a “Mack kid”.

Really? I had never heard that story ballrific.

that’s not literally what happened but I’ve never heard it talked about here or the shag, just referred to. im sure any of the fellas above can provide some insight…nord, TT, huck, ctj? I’ve never cared enough to ask but im curious now.

UT will have excellent D and special teams so key requirements for the O are to minimize turnovers and run clock (hence the emphasis on the running game).

Why does having good defense and special teams make running clock an offensive requirement?

I am from Missouri on our offense.

Lotta potential but a bunch of guys who havent consistently done it. Add a scheme change and we are looking at a couple losses.

JJ was phenomenal against UT last year but I reckon he will have our full attention this year and I think our defense will kick much ass.

And bagging on Gilbert is stupid. He overcame about as tough a situation as you could get and had Nick Sabans asshole puckered up pretty good with three minutes to go in the MNC game.

“All that and that’s the only thing you can say? Goodson was a very good and dynamic player at Aggie, and you actually feel it necessary to debate my opinion of a star? Living up to your moniker there bud.”

Why on earth would I need to say more than “wrong” when someone lamented losing Mike Goodson and saying he went on to be a “star” at A&M?

Goodson’s college stats:

              ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
Fr: 127 847 6.7 64 4
Soph: 153 711 4.6 34 4
Jr: 94 408 4.3 80 5

He was involved in the passing game as well and had about 300 yds/year receiving as well. His sophomore year he ran behind the best aggie OL of the past 10 years and all three years he had plenty of opportunity to pad his stats against cupcakes that even the ags out-talented by a large margin. No aggie I know was sad to see him leave for the NFL early mainly due to his attitude but also the fact that he didn’t really do all that much. Yet you think he went on to be a “star”? I couldn’t have been any nicer.

@dick said: Fuller was a legacy but wasn’t going to ATM as long as fran was there. Christine Michael … (is) a good kid making the grades by all reports. Nobody else on their offense would stand out on our team.

Dude – the glasses – Cyrus Gray would be your feature back and EZ one of your star receivers. I don’t know if y’all would have the patience to have kept JJ at QB, but he’d start for y’all at WR.

So, except for those 5 offensive skill position players, we ain’t got nuthin’ on you.

Nobody should ever be confident that their talented RB would be our feature back. If Cyrus Gray had run in our system for the past two years he wouldn’t be considered as good as he is now. Remember, people thought Jamaal Charles stunk when he was at Texas.

And I hope the JJ at WR thing was a joke.

Come on. Cyrus Gray would be Fozzy or Vondrell here, nothing more.

Huckleberry:
“Why does having good defense and special teams make running clock an offensive requirement?”

So that the D is not exhausted by being on the field too much (because the O has too many 3 and outs).

Field position becomes more important when you have excellent special teams and defensive teams because you are less willing to take chances on O that put special teams or the D in a bad position. It becomes less important for the O to strike quickly and more important to hang onto the ball (i.e. no turnovers and grind some first downs). When you defend well, you don’t need to score as many TDs and are more willing to kick a field goal or punt.

In the whole Goodson, Moody, McGee situation, don’t forget that the coaches also offered and got a commitment from Derke Robinson. Who? Exactly. So even though Goodson seemed like the top prize, by the time he was ready to make a decision we already had 3 RB’s committed.

Not saying it didn’t turn out to be a good miss.

I’ve not been that impressed with Gray. Solid, but I’m not sure he stands out anymore than McGee, Newton, Fozzy or Johnson. Which means he’d run for 150 yards in garbage time, become the featured back for one game and never be heard from the rest of the season. Michael on the other hand….

@blackscholes

Applewhite had Michael locked, but Mack would not sign off on another RB in that class. Just an awful, awful decision. I predict in two years we’ll still be trying to figure out what to do with Whaley.

I’m with you and it sucked to see Michael go to A&M. I personally wouldn’t mind them scrapping the Whaley experiment and just put him at DT now and let him eat.

Cyrus Gray is very average.

Cyrus Gray is going to make Coach Boom his bitch this year.

Melton was switched to DE because he did not catch the ball well and did not run over people when carrying the ball. Whaley catches the ball well and loves to run over people. I agree with letting Whaley eat but why move him to DL? He is a big guy who runs well, loves contact and catches the ball well, why not move him to H back or TE?

Reality-

I can see why Ags have so much confidence. All the big games you’ve won the last 10 years. And Sherminator’s stellar 10-15 record.

Goodson fell to aggy as a result of both his antics and his Dad’s. He was never going to end at Texas.

Fuller ended at aggy for a number of reasons, but we sure as hell did not try to recruit him hard enough so that part is on us.

Who is ‘EZ’ again? I don’t own an aggy decoder ring, and keeping up with your affinity for nicknames would be a full-time gig.

With the way we recruit and then attempt to utilize RBs, I’m not going to talk any smack at that position. I am pretty sure we would have figured out a way to better put Gray in a position to be mediocre though, so we’ve got that going.

dick,

I’m honestly not sure about the OL. We could be atrocious again, or we could a great pass blocking unit with decent/average run blocking ability.

On the one hand, they did a great job in winter and spring conditioning, whereas last year’s group half-assed it. What’s more is that all last spring, you saw a ridiculous number of false starts, holding, and other assorted ridiculous penalties that we didn’t see any of this year.
On the other hand, this is a group of guys being physically held together by WD-40, duct tape, pixie dust, and Jerry Scmidt’s dried vomit. Injuries are an ever-so-slight concern.

Kafka -

So the real actual goal is to get first downs. Not run the clock. Running the clock is standard media- and coach-speak about how to run an offense. No, the goal is to gain yards and score points.

Basically there is a subtle logical disconnect. You claim that the offense wants to run the clock because the defense doesn’t want to get tired because of too many three-and-outs. So the real goal is first downs, not taking longer to run every play. Would you really mind if the offense scored in 30 seconds? And if the offense is good enough to intentionally run a lot of clock by running for 4 yards every play then they’re simply a badass offense and therefore should worry more about scoring touchdowns.

I think there’s a big leap being made in saying that the defense and special teams will be outstanding and therefore, because there is a young QB, the offense necessarily must be more conservative than otherwise expected. I suppose there’s some truth in that because it might be the “worst” of the three units.

Problem as I see it is that “conservative” is being conflated with “ineffective.” I don’t think we know enough yet to jump to that conclusion.

FWIW, the rumor I heard out of Aggie North is that Goodson not only acted like a complete douche on his visit, he also asked Gundy for some “walking around money”.

Nate, and the request for “walking around money” didn’t endear him to OSU. Or are their impoprieties limited to making the ineligible, eligible?

With all the Ags in here today, who the hell is ’tendin to the harvest?

I’m with Joetx on this one, and Kafka makes some really good points too. I’m basically expecting our offense to revert to its pre running qb form. I think Gilbert has a little more mobility than Simms, but he’s not going to drop 500-700 yards a year like Colt, and he’s certainly not Vince. Remembering back to 2002 we had a senior qb with nfl talent, a returning 1,000 rusher, veteran offensive line, a beast at TE, and three legit WRs. And we couldn’t run the ball a lick against good teams.

Same story 99-01, if not worse. Any team that tried to shut down our running game could. We would usually burn teams that loaded the box on us and generally out talented our opponents, but the offensive wasn’t pretty in those days. (especially our running game, especially against quality teams).

Someone please explain to me how our 2010 offense will be as good as our Simms/Applewhite units with the same OC, but less talent a rb, unproven wr’s, a qb with next to zero experience, and question marks up and down our offensive line. The scary part is I think Gilbert is the least of our problems/question marks.

“No, the goal is to gain yards and score points.”

Not always. For example, say you have 1 point lead late in the 4th quarter. If you can make a couple of first downs, you win the game. You want to minimize the chance of turning the ball over. Even 7 points gives the opponent the chance to tie the game. You want to run the clock out.

Another example,is when your D is playing great but is getting tired (or you want to keep them from getting tired). When your O gets the ball, you want to hang onto it for awhile. This years O will most likely strike long on play action plays which are set up by mostly running.

Another example is that you are wearing down the opponent’s D and you want to grind them down by hanging onto the ball.

Another example is that you have good field position in a low scoring game and just want to get a first down to get in field goal position.

There are lots of situations where you don’t want to go for the quick score, especially when your O is not awesome.

The problem with taking a lot of time per play is that it permits the DC to stage manage the opposition D. The hurry up O takes the DC out of the game because it reduces the amount of time available to the DC to analyze and then direct his players. Hurry up is a big asset for the OC so you don’t want to give that up unless there is a very good reason. Running clock is short hand for hanging onto the ball by grinding out 1st downs but this can still be done in a hurry up O.

In the context of this next season, the horns will be led by the D and special teams, not the O. The offensive strategy is part of a larger team strategy. This is a common idea in algorithmic analysis: local maximization is often not compatible with global maximization.

The cost of going for the quick score is that you decrease the probability of getting a first down and increase the probability of getting a turnover. If your OL is poor at pass blocking, you tend to stress the run and short passing more than quick strikes. My guess is that this year’s O is not going to be badass, that they will have trouble pass blocking for the QB and that they are going to strike long mostly on play action (set up by mostly running and short passing).

“if the offense is good enough to intentionally run a lot of clock by running for 4 yards every play then they’re simply a badass offense and therefore should worry more about scoring touchdowns.”

Often not true. Lots of O’s are good at running and/or short passing but have difficulty striking quickly (except on play action). These kinds of O’s pay a big price when they go long and fail because the loss of the down makes it much tougher for them to get a first down.

This year the horns O is not going to be as good as the D and special teams and will need to focus more on grinding it out and much less on striking quickly.

Nice write-up. Can’t disagree with any of that.

I think Gilbert will be better at avoiding sacks than Colt, judging from the Alabama game. He did a great job of getting rid of the ball or stepping up for a short game in spots Colt would have lost 3-10 yards.

Tim you F*(^%* idio…..wait, what? Oh, ok. Nevermind.

Cool, lot of responses.

Let me just address the Garret Gilbert issue. Every year in college football on virtually every team, someone who hasn’t started and hasn’t “shown us on the field” has an incredible season.
Major Applewhite made Mack a start with his freshman performance. Muckelroy had 100 tackles in his first season as a starter, Travis Lewis had 144.
In his first season Sam Bradford had a few shaky games and several games where he made roadkill of the opposition. He was immediately, if unrecognized, one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I expect something similar from Gilbert.
Do y’all remember when freshman Colt was getting actual Heisman consideration and breaking rookie and UT records before he injured his spinal column?

Most media pundits are total pussies and won’t project a season like that for a first-time starter even though it happens all the time. I’m willing to do that with Gilbert, I’ve seen enough. If I’m wrong, I’ll take the mockery.

Roach: yes. I felt the same way.

And for whomever asked, it’s all fine and well to talk about capturing a massive, speedy, writhing centipede while women are screaming all around you and it seems impervious to everything you throw at it.
It’s another thing to actually do it. Eventually we dazed it enough to flush him down to bug hell. We have wood flooring now and I’m no more interested in repeating the experience. The way those things move is nauseating. Evidently their bites are terrible as well.

I seem to recall Goodson’s quote after committing to A&M including praise for the fact that A&M “keeps your pockets full”. Does anyone else remember that?

Bob in H town,

“I think there’s a big leap being made in saying that the defense and special teams will be outstanding and therefore, because there is a young QB, the offense necessarily must be more conservative than otherwise expected. I suppose there’s some truth in that because it might be the "worst" of the three units.

Problem as I see it is that "conservative" is being conflated with "ineffective." I don’t think we know enough yet to jump to that conclusion."

It is more a case of doubting the O’s abilities (i.e. rookie QB combined with a retooled OL that probably is not going to pass block well against excellent D’s combined with a schedule that has the 4 toughest games in the first half of the season). If the O is not that great, best to take a more conservative strategy. So rather than conflating conservative and ineffective, the idea is that if we are ineffective on O, then we need to be more conservative in our O strategy.

Hornmatic makes a great point/question: how well will this coaching staff coach the running game? It is a big worry.

did we let someone else have Tim’s handle?

Freshman Colt had a great supporting cast, probably a lot better than Gilbert will have this season.

That’s not the point. The point is that first-year guys can excel even when no one has the balls to predict it.

Kafka… I can’t disagree. I am giving benefit of the doubt that somehow, some way, they are going to run the ball. If they run it like they did last year, you will be correct.

Bob,

I think they will run the ball better than last year most of the time but I think they may have some trouble running it early in the season against real good D’s. The Tech game (3rd game of the year) should be instructive.

Nickel,
“The point is that first-year guys can excel even when no one has the balls to predict it.”

No doubt but you did specifically mention the success of Colt as an example. It seems relevant to point out that Colt had a much better supporting cast than Gilbert does. A huge part of a QB’s depends on his supporting cast. For example, are his receivers going to get open and catch the ball in the time that his OL gives him to throw? Is the horns running game going to be good enough to make play action passing work? Gilbert has no control over most of what determines his fate.

I’ve actually been wondering if Garrett Gilbert could look anything like the freshman version of Sam Bradford. The physical traits are more comparable than recent Texas examples. Also, I think Bradford spent his first season as starter with an offense that emphasized running with Adrian Peterson and Allen Patrick, which took a considerable amount of pressure off of the QB.

Of course we won’t have a Peterson in the backfield, but obviously the coaches are going in a few directions that won’t require Gilbert to hit a McCoy like 75% completion rate on a game-in/game-out basis to be successful.

Gate_of_Horn: exactly my thoughts.

Kafka: Sure, but it’s not as though Texas is starting the equivalent of Ryan Palmer and Brandon Foster at the skill positions. Williams will at least be a good receiver if not a monster. Goodwin has some elite potential as well, Chiles and Kirk are serviceable. Fozzy and Newton is a better combo than Texas has had since Charles and between Matthews and everyone who ever looked remotely promising as a TE and was injured there should be improvement there as well.
There is enough out there with Gilbert for his quality to shine through.

atm will build the stats with playing true cupcakes. Texas plays some cupcakes too but atm plays cupcakes high school teams could compete with on the field. So everyone will say how great the offense looks with all the stats. Then when they start playing competition the stats will begin to show real world stats. I respect atm offense but the stats are slanted when you play teams just above the high school level competition early in the season.

Look for Chiles to finally, “finally” be a super star on offense. Break out year for him. Had/has potential to make his senior year his year. Should have been WR/slot when he was a sophmore. Then he may have been a greater contributor last year. Look for him to have a break out season.

Yeah, the horns O may be great but a lot of things have to break the right way. My main worry is about the OL.

Yeah, striker. Rice, Wyoming, and FAU aren’t “true” cupcakes.

You followed that brilliance with a prediction of Chiles superstardom. Nice.

Blake B,

Michael Goodson was a great talent, talked like he wanted to be the man, but in the end didn’t have it in him. True shame he didn’t have his sister’s brains and guts or she his talent.

The career at A&M mirrored high school. Flashes of brilliance, but when it was time for him to carry the load he was often found hurt. No one will ever confuse Ced Benson and Michael Goodson in terms of toughness and durability.

Also don’t forget that Goodson’s high school coach Benny Davis ended up on the football operations staff at A&M which Michael was in College Station, but left shortly after Michael. As for Papa Goodson, jail time for mortgage fraud, Guess karma can really be a bitch sometimes.

Here is to hoping the last of the Goodson’s is more like #2 and #3 than Michael.

“did we let someone else have Tim’s handle?”

No. I’ve always been consistent. When I see bullshit, I call it. When I see an accurate post, I give the writer credit. If a day comes when one of my picks is wrong I expect to be called on it, as of now I’m 100%.

Looking forward to the season..

"Sure, but it’s not as though Texas is starting the equivalent of Ryan Palmer and Brandon Foster at the skill positions. Williams will at least be a good receiver if not a monster. Goodwin has some elite potential as well, Chiles and Kirk are serviceable. Fozzy and Newton is a better combo than Texas has had since Charles and between Matthews and everyone who ever looked remotely promising as a TE and was injured there should be improvement there as well.
There is enough out there with Gilbert for his quality to shine through."

Personnel has never really been our problem, and it won’t be next year. We have enough to work with, I’m just hoping we put enough things together by Tech-OU-Nebraska.

Nickel,

Young QB’s having superior seasons are frequently a direct product of the talent around them. Sam Bradford’s 2007 OL became one of the best, if not the single best, OLs in 2008. Bradford also enjoyed the superglue hands of Malcolm Kelly, the red zone proficiency of Jermaine Gresham, and the titanic running of Adrian Peterson. And he STILL had a couple of bad games. Colt McCoy enjoyed the talent and experience of UT’s 2005 MNC core group in 2006. And, again, he still had a couple of bad games.

Who do you see those guys being for Gilbert?

Nickel Rover, I agree with you on Gilbert.

During the MNC, it drove me crazy because we screwed around from the time Colt was injured until half. I understood why, but it still drove me nuts. Once the kid settled down, we should have taken off the handcuffs. Unfortunately, we waited too long.

FWIW, the last time I felt this good about a freshman qb replacing a starter was against UCLA in LA, when Applewhite replaced Walton. In Applewhite’s case, I thought he improved the offense. In Gilbert’s case, I thought he exhibited remarkable poise under the most intense pressure, incredible skill, and gave us a legitimate opportunity to win the MNC. You can’t ask for more than that from your freshman backup qb and should expect significantly less.

I am really looking forward to the season wearing orange-colored glasses, and I wouldn’t trade ‘em for maroon for any amount of ’walkin around money’.

NateHeupel,

granted that young quarterbacks who come along strong often do so because of opportunities presented by talent around them. You’ll notice that I rated Gilbert’s surrounding talent as being amongst the better in the conference.
If he has Bradford-level talent and is a little further along than the cherokee was when he started, which he is, he should shine with the right expectations and weapons.

Texas is going to set him up in play-action to throw to some of the fastest downfield threats in the conference with a running game behind what I believe will be a very strong interior OL. And at Left Tackle, while Hix may not be Trent Williams in pass protection he is a mauler in the running game.
Even if Texas runs spread half the season they still have strong pieces with which to do it and Gilbert will have some moments of brilliance.

“You’ll notice that I rated Gilbert’s surrounding talent as being amongst the better in the conference.”

Yes, I did notice that. That’s my problem with your assessment. It’s one thing to have a premise based on a single, likely condition. I.e., Gilbert will be a stud if Malcolm Williams steps up. It’s another thing to do the following:
Gilbert will be a stud because
1) The UT running game which has vacillated between full retard and mediocre for the last 5 years is suddenly going to be useful this year.
2) The UT WR corps sans Shipley is going to be a legit and consistent threat downfield and on the underneath routes…despite having shown no evidence to date of being able to do so.
3) The UT OL will be able to provide at least good protection despite having only two returning starters….again, despite UT’s recent history of not producing outstanding OL unless they arrived in Austin with the built-in desire to destroy people.

As to condition 1, the last time UT had an effective running game sans a running QB, it was 2003 and 2004, and you guys had El Ced. The current UT RB stable doesn’t impress, and UT has been promising to refocus on the running game every single year. I’m from Missouri on this one.
As to condition 2, this is the one I think is most likely to pan out. Marquise Goodwin and Malcolm Williams both seemed to have the light bulb start flickering late in the year.
As to condition 3, I have no faith in this one whatsoever. Especially after reading Scip’s outstanding work about the imbalance of DE’s v. OT’s in the league this year.

I’m not saying Gilbert isn’t going to come along and go nuclear. And I’m not saying the above three aren’t going to come together. I’m saying that it isn’t happening this year. I think this year will be a lot closer to Sam Bradford’s 2007 than it will Bradford’s 2008. If that’s what you’re getting at…well, then we agree and that’s my bad.

I think one of our unproven WRs has to emerge, possibly a true frosh, for Texas to have much of a passing game.

We had two of the best WRs ever at Texas in Shipley and Quan and that unit with the most accurate QB in college history was a deadly short passing game machine.

I look for Gilbert to have an uneven year trending up to studly by the end. What impressed me more than anything is when things were going bad in the Bama game he sucked it up and starting slinging it. The 2 point conversion pass to bring the game to 3 point margin was an NFL quality dart.

Too many things have to be better than trend on our offense for it to excel. Too many new faces and a lot of faces that havent done enough for all the optimism.

Offensively I just think this is a transition year that sets us up for another elite 2-3 year run with either Gilbert or Wood running the show.

UT’s O success hinges on the success of the running game.

If the running game works well, pass blocking becomes relatively less important because downfield passes will be mainly play action passes. Short, quick passes require little pass blocking. I’m convinced that Mack is dead serious about resurrecting the run game because the OL pass blocking will not be good enough to rely on the intermediate passing game, especially with a rookie QB.

If the running game works well, the horns will mostly deploy an H back, a TE, and only 2 WRs. The horns will have no problem fielding a couple of good WRs.

With good coaching, the horns have the talent to have a good running attack. It is easier to run block than pass block so focusing more on running than passing will help the horns retooled OL.

The question is whether Mack, GD, Major, and McWhorter have the ability/passion to coach the running game well enough for it to excel. I have no doubt the UT running game will be better this coming season because Mack is going to commit the resources necessary to improve. The question is whether they can coach it well enough to excel. GD and Major are both ex college QBs who are much more interested in the passing game than the run game. Mack is an ex college running back who has tons of experience coaching the running game (though mostly focusing on QB option attacks) but hasn’t really been a hands on coach for a long time. It doesn’t seem likely that McWhorter will take charge. This might be a good time to hire an outstanding running game consultant.

The question is whether Mack, GD, Major, and McWhorter have the ability/passion to coach the running game well enough for it to excel.

Bingo!

However, unlike you, I have doubts about their abilities.

Kafka said:

July 15th, 2010 at 11:12 am

Mack also saw how vulnerable the horns were in the MNC when the starting QB went down and there was absolutely no running attack to fall back on. Muschamp also probably told Mack that to defend the run well, the UT D requires a good running attack to practice against. Muschamp might also have mentioned to Mack that it is absurd for UT not to have a competent running game.

I’m sorry, but after about 3 decades of coaching, Mack is only now realizing the importance of an effective running game, then Mack ain’t too bright.

Nate-

Peterson was nothing special after his freshman year. He did not help Bradford that much. Especially when he was on the sidelines with a broken collar bone.

He was good as a junior. But not great. And certainly not titanic.

Houston,

When AD was healthy, he was an absolute killer. What’s more is that when he was on the field, no one was worried about Sam Bradford, they were worried about being Peterson’s next audition reel for an early NFL pick. This freed up a lot of play action, and that’s what UT and Gilbert will need for this year.

I wish atm would have gone to the SEC. Would not miss them at all. Texas plays some cupcakes but atm plays inferior cupcakes to are cupcakes. Makes the stats look good.
Last year four games into the season. atm was based upon stats one of the best offense teams. Then atm starts to play real competition and it takes a dive. I would not consider wyoming a cup cake. Not a great team but a good team. I think atm played one or two division II teams early in season. ???? Stat building. The cupcakes Texas plays could beat the cupcakes atm plays.

@NateHeupel – I really enjoy your takes. That’s why we asked you to write a fucking blog. Now get over there and start a stadium cheer or something. And tell NDS he’s on my list too.

Scipio and I are looking forward to our OU week podcast with you two.

When the horns go with only 2 WRs (for example, Goodwin and Malcolm), will opponents be forced to dedicate 2 CBs for press coverage and 2 safeties to protect deep against the big play? Malcolm is so big and strong that he breaks a lot of tackles and has plenty of speed to take it to the end zone. OU and NU are likely to dedicate a safety to keep Malcolm from turning a broken tackle on a short pass into a touchdown. Goodwin, with world class explosiveness and speed, also demands press coverage by a CB and safety help deep.

With 4 defenders covering the 2 horn WRs, that leaves 7 defenders defending the other 9 horns. Most likely, we’ll frequently see the horns go into max protect mode (keeping everybody in to block except for Malcolm and Goodwin). This play should generate lots of open space/opportunities for delayed draws or dump passes to blockers (TB, TE, and H back) who have turned into runners or receivers after initially blocking.

It will be difficult for the opposition D to overwhelm the blockers when they are two men down (i.e. 7 defending 9). Zone blitzes also become much less effective when you have 3 blockers in the backfield.

If the opponent’s D tries to single cover Malcolm or Goodwin, that should open up the horns quick/short passing attack because CB on an island will have to give Malcolm and/or Goodwin a big cushion.

When Gilbert rolls out, it will also generate lots of running opportunities for the other horns. Every time Gilbert rolls out, there are 3 options: Gilbert can throw, keep it, or hand off to a TB, H back, TE or WR running the opposite direction. This last option (mini reverse off Gilbert’s roll out) will provide misdirection that should help the runner enormously, at a relatively low risk to Gilbert’s health.

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