Big 12 Media Preseason Poll

1. Texas 7-1 – Too much defense, but QB experience will cost a game. Hopefully, in Lubbock.
2. OU 6-2 – I’m not convinced a NM QB can keep from losing fewer than 2 games in this league.
2. Tech 6-2 – Experience at QB and running game with just enough defense.
4. A&M 5-3 – Aggie offense and Von Miller are dangerous. Wildly inconsistent. This was a 3-5 team last year.
5. OSU 3-5 – I’m on board that they will suck unless Holgerson works a miracle.
6. Baylor 2-6 – They get RGIII back, which will help. I have no idea how that will replace 9 starters on defense including Pawelek, Jones and Lake.

Good call ded, I’m with you, and I just don’t like new mexico quarterbacks

MU & NU have repped the North for 4 years in a row. Why not 5? But there’s enough parity up there for me to believe the winner won’t be 6-2 again (NU 2009).

I really thought there would be more Aggie Kool-Aid in the media’s ranking.

I’m completely fine with not watching any of the the North’s 2 through 6 teams play this year.

That division coupled with the Huskers killer OOC schedule of Western Kentucky, Idaho, South Dakota State, and (gulp!) Washington!

Texas better beat Nebraska this year. I’m preparing myself for the most pathetic 10-2 or 11-1 season in college history.

If I’m going picking a dark horse, I think I go with ISU. They do have the worst possible South draw ever: TTech, @ OU, @ UT in 3 out of 4 weeks (with Utah sandwhiched in). That will keep them from finishing first, but I could see them 2nd in the North and having a big impact on the North champ.

They get Mizzou, KU and NU at home. They beat NU last year and were in every loss to the other north opponents (lost to KSU, KU, and MU 16 by total pts). I don’t expect high scoring offenses in the North this year from anyone except possibly MU. If they can limit the number of throws Arnaud has to make to keep his ints down, I think the scores will be low enough that they can be in any game.

They went 3-5 last year, and I think it is likely they end up at 4-4 this year. With a lucky break they end up at 5-3 and #2 in the North (and at least in the discussion for first).

I’m still waiting for my cup of Burnt Orange Kool-Aid b/c there are too many question marks on O to have Texas head-and-shoulders above #s 3-6.

I agree w/ Scipio in thinking Baylor will be better than Okie St.

However, I disagree re: A&M and Tech. Tech is a wild card. Who knows how smooth the Tubby transition will be? How well A&M does will depend on the affect their new DC has on their D. If they make a big jump on D, watch out OU. If they make solid improvements on D, and if Texas’ problems on O aren’t resolved, the Gomers might even surprise Texas (which, of course, I hope does not happen).

Neb & Mizzou should be close. I’m rooting for MU b/c I have recently come to despise Corn due to the whole conference shuffling mess.

I put ISU slightly under KSU b/c ISU has a much tougher interdivisional schedule.

Hawkins’ seat is fiery hot. Usually that translates into a decent season b/c the coaches are coaching for their lives, so CU could surprise. I don’t think it happens, though, especially b/c, as Scipio pointed out, their OOC schedule is a killer (for a team that has been struggling as long as the Buffs have), so they’ll be beat down before conference play comes.

I think KU will fall to the basement b/c they lost too much & have a new regime. Not a good combo.

ded -
 
So you’ve got the Red Raiders going 10-2 this year? Ballsy. Or will you brick the UH game?
 
On OU, I think their beta is provided by Landry Jones and their cornerback play. Jones definitely got some good experience last year, but he seems as likely to throw out a 450 yard 5 TD game as a 160 yard, 3 int effort against solid Ds. He’s poor on throwing on the run, too. I like OU’s D, but their corners are new and their safeties aren’t great coverage guys. They can be had if you can block that front 7. If.
 
I see Baylor outscoring some people. Pawelek and Jones are big losses. Lake is a media creation. Their overhyped fat fuck DT did nothing last year – maybe he finds a motor.
 
Rocket –
 
Washington will actually be an interesting test for Nebraska. Locker is for real, they have some talent on O. And Sarkisian is a real and legitimate football coach.

I’ve got a lot of faith in Styx, Batch & Torres, Edwards, Whitlock, Duncan and Ford. That’s playmakers at all 3 levels on both sides of the ball. We’ll be extremely competitive at worst, I’m hoping.

- I think A&M’s OL made great strides last year, but they’ll be starting a couple of true freshmen this year from what I’ve heard. If you can run the ball on them to slow down Miller in pass rush, then their defense is an easy out. In College Station, I could see a loss for Tech.

- The Texas defense will be salty. If you can establish some semblance of an inside running game and playaction against Chykie and Blake, then I’m thinking it may not be as tough to outscore you this season given the question on the OL and an underachieving WR corps without Shipley. However, Tech is the only team I see with guard and center play good enough to be threatening. Should be interesting in Lubbock.

- I’m not sure we’ll ever win in Norman during my lifetime, but I’m not sure Landry Jones will ever win on the road.

- OSU and Baylor lost too many playmakers on defense to scare me.

- Our North schedule includes road games at Iowa State and Colorado, which isn’t too bad, and we land Mizzou at home. I’m thinking 10-2 is very doable with a little luck. Experience has a lot to do with luck and we’ve got some in the right places. Pressuring the QB is my biggest concern.

Scip:

I take it we agree that you can pencil the Big 12 as follows
1 and 1a) OU and Texas (or Texas and OU…whatevs)
2-12) Doesn’t matter

I just can’t judge Landry Jones on most of his 2009 resume. He spent his year trying to trust an OL whose best lineman let an average white Mormon blow through and knock on Sam Bradford like he was someone’s front door.

You know, Nate – OU gave up only 15 sacks on the year. I’m not pretending they were world beaters nor will I completely equate sacks with pressure, but I don’t recall Landry spending most of the year under siege.

We’ll see what happens with him. The development between a QBs first and second year is usually pretty telling.

Ded: supposedly the best OSU linebacker, Lemon, is back this year. Whathisname seems to maximize his linebackers and an awesome cover-2 Mike could do some damage in this league.
I’m thinking they drop most of their conference slate though, just like everyone else here. It should be awhile before they really adopt to hardwood football or whatever they call it.

Dedi – I think your more likely to be 5-3 as you lose the dread pirate Leach factor (no going for it on 4th down and other things). Tubs will be good if he can upgrade recruiting but I think you will become more predictable on O and scoring will be down. On the bright side defense is his specialty, I just don’t know if he has the players on campus to run the schemes he wants.

For my Ags, it’s true we will probably have 2 Fish OT’s but they are more talented than anyone we have had on campus in a long long time. If they are serviceable we will score on most anybody. So of course the big question is how much we improve on defense. I think we’ll actually disguise things a bit more than previous years and our overall talent level is up (except on the DL). We play Okie lite, Ark and Mizzou after our 3 cupcakes and we’ll all know if we are going to be any good after that.

I feel better about our upset chances playing OU at home, vs Texas in Austin. We will not be favored for either game. The wildcard to me is Nebraska at home as I don’t know if their offense will be any better than last year. Their defense will be good but probably not as dominant as last year.

“Dedi – I think your more likely to be 5-3 as you lose the dread pirate Leach factor (no going for it on 4th down and other things)”

I actually think the Leach factor might be worth a win against a quality opponent. How many games against Texas did Leach bail too soon with his nonsensical 4th and 20 fake punt on his own 35 yard line?

Tubbs is quality. A coach who managed an undefeated season in the SEC is an upgrade over Mike Leach on game day.

I agree with Scipio’s statement about the beta for OU being based on Jones, CB play, but also the development of the line and the receiving corps. RE: the 15 sacks, to the credit of the offense’s coaches, OU modified it’s scheme to cover up for the poor OL play. To the dis-credit of the coaches, they didn’t realize that the constant lineup changes made protection in the hurry-up scheme with new players really hard.

I’m least worried about Jones. The CB play may be an issue, but the 2 new guys looked like gamers in their action last year. OU’s OL has the potential to be competent. To me, that means some run blocking against reasonable defenses, pass blocking to allow for some downfield options.

In addition to the OL, Jones should be credited with playing most of the year with only one dependable WR. This year, based on the development of FR last year, the TE position, RBs coming in, and incoming FR, that should change. This alone should improve the passing game.

Kilgore -
 
If there’s an early line out on A&M-OU, I’d like to see it. A&M will spread OU out and test those corners with big, physical receivers that can manhandle smaller athletes.
 
quigley -

Good assessment.

If we are in the conference championship game, I want Nebraska there so we can beat them twice.

RE: OU at A&M
Despite A&M fielding a pretty poor team recently, OU’s only given them a proper beating in College Station once during the Stoop era so a close game is likely in order.

Let’s assume TAMU’s two freshman tackles are both Jonathan Scott/Justin Blalock types, destined for AA and NFL careers. Do we still think they won’t get JJ killed this year, or at least will require TAMU to keep a blocker back a lot?

TaylorT, Joeckel was a mid term enrollee and beat out everyone on campus for the LT spot. That could be by default, but he also showed excellent technique. He had trouble with Von Miller but then again everyone else on our team has that issue. Matthews has been coached by his all pro father for years and per our scouting reports does everything well. These guys won’t be as strong as upper classmen due to maturity but I think they will play with good technique. Rhontae Scales is a guy on campus who has all the physical tools but is not grasping the position and plays that quickly. I think we are in better shape than last year when we were trying out different guys at the position early in the season and getting JJ killed/running for his life vs Ark.

Kilgore-

Y’all still have no depth. Do you know why Texas and Blo-u never worry about teams like Kansas and Missouri in november? they are beat up.

It doesn’t really matter but why is OU getting voted #1? Does it come down to Texas starting a new QB? If so, it makes sense, but I just can’t get over the image of Gilbert making plays in the BCS Championship game. I keep thinking we’ll be back. Is that unreasonable?

Scip:

To expand on quigley’s very solid contribution, OU spent the 2nd half of the year throwing almost exclusively short range passes. When they did try to go downfield, Wilson frequently rolled the pocket to one side or the other to give Jones some time. Much as in 2005, when Bomar’s mobility often hid the OL’s below average pass protection, Wilson’s playcalling hid the fact that, with a solid blitz, you could obliterate our QB.

“To the dis-credit of the coaches, they didn’t realize that the constant lineup changes made protection in the hurry-up scheme with new players really hard.”
The problem is that taking away the hurry-up would’ve taken away part of OU’s counterattack protection vis a vis keeping defenses from substituting in their ideal personnel to obliterate us.

“their safeties aren’t great coverage guys”
If by not great, you mean “not Earl Thomas”…well, yeah, but no one is. If by “not great” you mean “liability against good passing teams”, we’ll have to agree to disagree.

Word from some guys in the OSU program is that they think their offense is going to be, at best, average this year and at worst, abysmal. Of course, the source was a couple of defensive players, so take it for what it’s worth.

Just like OU last year, with no developed depth at QB, we are a ACL away from 8-4.

Monahorns:

You can’t get 2 nice TD passes to Jordan Shipley out of your head. The rest of the world can’t get the image of Gilbert getting utterly choked out by the Bama defense on damn near every other possession out of our heads. Tell me if this is the stat line of a guaranteed superstar: 15-of-40 for 186 yards and two TDs with four (4) INTs. In the second half when Gilbert had “calmed down”, UT’s final two possessions ended in two plays each with Alabama’s D intercepting the ball both times. There was a glimmer of greatness, but don’t get carried away.

“If there’s an early line out on A&M-OU, I’d like to see it.”

Scip, the early line is OU -7.5. Vegas is no dummy.

“In the second half when Gilbert had "calmed down", UT’s final two possessions ended in two plays each with Alabama’s D intercepting the ball both times.”

no, those INTs were on desperation possessions down 2 scores with under 3 minutes left in the NC title game. Gilbert was very overwhelmed in the first half and was very good from the start of the 3rd quarter until the forced fumble that essentially ended the game.

I won’t criticize Gilbert on his performance in the MNC game. I will criticize Coach Davis for not finding enough PT for him in some blowouts when he was instead trying to pad McCoy’s stats to help McCoy potentially win hardware.

Ag – We all thought the same thing when Colt got injured. But when I think back now, I have a hard time remembering how many blow outs we really had to get Gilbert some reps. It is probably due to massive drinking after the Bama game (and during just about every other game), but what I remember are close games against NU, OU, and A&M, plus a first half scare against Wyoming. Did we really have those blow outs? So I thought I’d go back and take a look at the schedule.

ULM 59-20: Gilbert got to throw 5 passes during the first fulle drive of the 4th qrtr. Sherrod got the last one to kill the clock. It probably would have been best to bring Gilbert in half way through the 3rd, but it was the first game and it is hard to fault the staff for wanting to get some game practice for the 1st teamers with TTech in 2 weeks.

Wyoming 41-10: Overall it looks like a blow out, but we were only up 3 going into the half. Gilbert got 3 passes during the last clock killing drive. Again, with Tech coming up and us looking horrible on offense, can’t blame the staff for not putting Gilbert in for the first 2 drives of the 4th

TTech 34-24: Tough close game. Too close to ever give Gilbert snaps.
UTep 64-7: Why the fuck wasn’t GG in during the 2nd when we were up 40 points? Why didn’t we throw a pass in the 4th? If we are worried about running up the score, we should put our 2nd team in during the 2nd qrtr when we are up 40 points.
CU 38-14: Another bad game that wasn’t in control until the 4th.
OU 16-13: No chance here

This is the stretch that I’d forgotten about where I think we really screwed ourselves over.

MU 41-7: Up 35-7 at the half. Again we don’t see GG until the 4th, and he goes 0-3.
OkSU 41-14: Up 35-7 mid way through the third, but we don’t see GG for 3 more drives. He goes 0-2 and we run the clock out on the last possession.
UCF 35-3: Another game we shoot ourselves in the foot and don’t get under control enough to bring GG in. Although I might argue that 21-3 to start the 4th was enough against UCF.
BU 47-14: We were up by 40 at half, and GG only made 5 throws after finally seeing the field at the end of the 3rd
KU 51-20: Maybe the staff was worried when we were up 34-13 in the third? GG got 1 pass.

A&M and NU we all remember even though we are trying not to.

I can’t blame them much for not playing him before NU. However, we had 4 of 5 games that GG should have gotten an entire half to lead the offense. And really, that 5th game (UCF) we should have been able to put him in then too. Instead, he usually didn’t see the field until midway through the 4th qrtr in those games. Also, we really have to get away from being afraid to score points on our opponents. I’m fine with not running up the score to 70 with Colt in the game, but if our opponents can’t stop our back up from scoring that is their problem. Our second team needs to get to run plays other than a run straight up the middle.

That was wordy. Sorry.

dick,

“those INTs were on desperation possessions”
Neither pass was a 50+ yard Hail Mary heave into the abyss. One was 10 yards off the line of scrimmage, the other was 22 yards off the line of scrimmage. On the first one, UT was only down 10 points.

“[Gilbert] was very good from the start of the 3rd quarter”

If you implicitly meant to qualify this with “for a true freshman under the circumstances”, I couldn’t agree more. If you mean objectively very good, look at his drives from the 3rd quarter to right before the fumble:
2 of 6, 42 yds, punt
1 of 4, 10 yds, punt
0 of 2, punt
2 of 3, 57 yds, TD
1 of 3, -1 yds, punt
7 of 8, 64 yds, TD
Totals: 13-26, 173 yds, 2 TDs
One nice long drive and one exploited coverage slip interspersed with bouts of futility. Exactly what you’d expect from a kid with talent but no experience to speak of.

Now, let’s look at who he was throwing to in that time frame:
Shipley: 9 rec
Goodwin: 2 rec
Newton and Buckner: 1 rec each

Which of those receivers isn’t coming back for 2010?

As I’ve said elsewhere, he’s not a known quantity. He’ll be great in time, but there are too many “if’s” for 2010. If he gets protection, if a run game develops, if a new #1 WR steps up, etc.

I agree that we don’t know enough about GG or our running backs or our o line to say we will have a 1 loss season. We could lose to tech, corn, ou and maybe aggie. If we go 3-1 in those 4 it’s a good season.

“Totals: 13-26, 173 yds, 2 TDs”

regardless of being a true freshman, that’s pretty good for less than a half against one of the top defenses in college football in the biggest game of the college football season. he wasn’t consistently perfect but nobody short of VY would be.

He’ll be a true sophomore so no he isn’t a known comodity. Every QB at every program has the same what if’s. Gilbert shouldn’t too high up on our worries list.

“Neither pass was a 50+ yard Hail Mary heave into the abyss. One was 10 yards off the line of scrimmage, the other was 22 yards off the line of scrimmage. On the first one, UT was only down 10 points. "

also, i’m so desperate for football that I’ve actually watched that game on ESPN Classic twice over the past 2 weeks and those were definitely desperate hurried throws just trying to make things happen quickly. Being down 10 with 3 minutes left in the NC game having to go the length of the field and recover an onside kick just to have a chance = desperation time. I just used desperate a lot.

UT-06, I am not sure if this is a fact but I have heard that Gilbert didn’t complete a pass to Shipley in the regular season. That would have been nice to establish some sort of rapport before the NC game.

I can’t wait for Garrett Gilbert to shut everybody the fuck up. Not only you Nate, but these apprehensive to believe UT fans as well. He’ll be good to start the season, and great by the end of it.

Garrett Gilbert will be the greatest QB ever at UT not named Vince Young.

I fully expect a “Why Garrett Gilbert Will Stomp a Mudhole in OU” post.

UT-06 – did you start off disagreeing with me and then talk yourself into agreeing with me?

You could definitely tell when GG was a little nervous or hurried. Even with the incompletions I had a sense that he felt he was in control, as much as a freshmen with no real experience could be. Like someone else said 50% competion rate and ~150 yds is just under 1 half of a game in the national championship. I don’t know how not to feel good about that. Overall not a great statistical day though. No doubt. Must cut down on the turnovers or he will be in real trouble.

Ag – Ha. No. It was what I remember thinking at the time and stil thought, but I couldn’t really remember why. The only games that came to mind were the ones that were too close to put GG in. It is sad that even though it was a great year for Texas and for the Srs who were playing, I’ve done my best to forget about it because of what happened during the first half after about minute 5.