Adjusted Stats 2009 Year in Review Part IX

by Huck L Berry on Aug 2, 2010 12:25 PM CDT in Texas Longhorns and Other Football

This is the ninth and final in a series of posts that will review the 2009 season (as well as 2008) from an adjusted stats perspective.

Publication Schedule

Part I: Which Stats Correlate Best to Winning? - 6/24/10
Part II: Drilling Down and Regression Models - 6/29/10
Part III: Passing Efficiency Formula - 6/30/10
Part IV: Conference Strengths and Pace - 7/2/10
Part V: Testing Conventional Wisdom - 7/16/10
Part VI: Team Matchups - 7/20/10
Part VII: Year-to-Year Changes - 7/22/10
Part VIII: Points per Yard Efficiencies - 7/26/10
Part IX: Data Dump - 8/2/10

Data Dump

Well, I was extremely busy last week and didn't get a chance to dump the data as scheduled. So basically I'm just going to provide three links that contain all the data and reports that have been used and published in this series.

2009 Team Rankings
2009 Team Reports
Complete Year in Review (includes calculation and methodology explanations, the studies, and a few other items)

In other news, Vegas Kyle is pumping out some good stuff at Fading Las Vegas and the FLV Sportsbook has posted college football futures and I hope to be adding more as the season approaches. There's a possibility that we'll be running a season-long contest as well.

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Comments

Cool stuff, man.

I find the futures fascinating since I’m not sure how you can adequately handicap Boise St or TCU’s ability to get into a MNC game based on sentiment.

by Scipio Tex on Aug 2, 2010 3:48 PM CDT reply actions

Very true, futures bet this far out are basically sucker bets that serious gamblers play for pure entertainment value only. Or else in favor of their favorite team.

The juice on those at a real book are ridiculous. I try to keep the juice at 10% at the FLV book. You’ll notice the probabilities of each team winning it all, including the field, add up to around 1.1 for the available action. At bookmaker.com, the service I based mine on, their available action adds up to over 1.75 for this bet.

by Huckleberry on Aug 2, 2010 6:37 PM CDT reply actions

Huck – Great work with this series. Very impressive stuff.

by BrickHorn on Aug 2, 2010 6:42 PM CDT reply actions

So does your current model still use turnover rates as a significant input? It seems like your research has shown that they should be largely ignored.

by evo34 on Sep 25, 2010 8:18 PM CDT reply actions